Uncle.
I told myself I wasn’t going to write this column this year, let alone make predictions, but some of you were just too cute in your emails and Twitter DMs asking for something akin to my annual year-in-advance take on the race, so I struck a balance: a column and contenders list, but no charts and no predictions. Fair enough?
The 2010 Oscar season looks, from afar, to be a muted affair. Most of the films that look like competitors on paper have a distinctly “small” vibe. Of course, no one knows when a film like “The Blind Side” will decide to come along and sweep the heartland and the Academy at large off its feet. Maybe Tony Goldwyn’s “Betty Anne Waters” will play that role this year. Maybe not.
There are a considerable amount of actors and actresses with multiple performances on the way, more than usual, I’d say. And most encouraging, the original screenplay field seems to be much more robust than the adaptations.
Last year the big dogs looked to be “Amelia,” “Invictus” and “Nine,” and we all know how that turned out. In fact, it happens with some frequency. So why bother getting too deep into all of this now? And to say nothing of the fact that, perhaps mercifully, nothing on the horizon appears to have that level of awards-baiting appeal. No major filmmakers looking to cozy up to Oscar. No big stars that seem overdue and are going for it with an obvious role. None of that, really.
Instead, the big contenders look to come from up-and-coming talent, or at least filmmakers that are much less established than most. Anton Corbijn’s “The American,” for instance, or Darren Aronofsky’s “Black Swan.” The established guys are actually stepping out of the awards stuff and into genre, as evident with Clint Eastwood’s “Hereafter,” Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island” and Ridley Scott’s “Robin Hood.” Then again, genre could be the trick (finally) if Christopher Nolan makes good on the monumental promise of “Inception.”
David Fincher will be back, but not exactly with standard awards fare. Ditto Phillip Noyce. You know, things like that. Though Peter Weir and “The Way Back” could tap into a traditionalist vibe, while James L. Brooks will give it another shot with “How Do You Know?” (or whatever it’ll be called).
Sony Pictures Classics looks to have another healthy stable of contenders, as does Universal. But things will ebb and flow until they begin to settle into a picture that makes better sense four or five months hence, so I’ll just stop there. You can peruse the Contenders section to get a vibe on what I have in mind. It’s not nearly as thorough as in years past and it’s not broken down into tiers, because I refuse. But for now, that ought to be enough grist for the mill.
I won’t offer up predictions of any sort until post-Cannes at the earliest. Until then, the sidebar will be a reminder of the 2009-2010 season.
So with that, consider these words my send-off to this season’s Oscar coverage and the beginning of a bit of a hiatus for me. I need it, believe me. Chad will be kicking off the Life Without Oscar feature tomorrow, while the box office columns will continue to run on Fridays and Sundays. Guy will chime it at his leisure, as will I (eventually), but for now, I’m powering down. Thanks for making it a lively and spirited season and, as always, for bringing a community component to In Contention that is truly irreplaceable.
Cheers.
Comments
120 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: Handicapping 2010 a year in advance”
Enjoy the hiatus, Kris. And thanks for all the great coverage this season.
Great work this season man. The shorts category kicked all of our asses.
categories I should say.
Since we obviously weren’t looking at the right movies this time last I’m putting all my money on Hot Tub Time Machine as the frontrunner come January next year.
If everything goes as planned then Fox Searchlight should have another great (and busy) year with Never Let Me Go, Black Swan, Rabbit Hole, and Betty Ann Waters, plush whatever else they pick up later on.
good job this year Kris.
about 2010: looks like Juliette Lewis has an interesting slate this year, she was definitely the best thing about Whip It last year.
Green Zone review please?
Maybe Tree of Life will have an impact? Whenever it comes out…
I could use a long break from Oscar, yet I still am reading about it.
True Grit has to be at the top of any 2010 list.
Obviously Nolan, Fincher and Aronofsky will also be players.
Other than that who the hell knows.
You’ve earned the break, Kris, as have we all. I was actually paying attention today in classes, as opposed to fiercely reading whatever the latest Oscarnews was, and it was kind of cathartic.
As for 2010, I had hopes ages ago that Alice in Wonderland would be some kind of contender, but, ah, well. The only real “pony” I’m hoping to ride this year is “Inception”, which I have faith Nolan will knock out of the park (and hopefully show up at Kodak ready for some payback). In the mean time, though, I’ll be on the lookout for any hidden gems and blockbuster surprises that may pop up. Methinks 2010’s got a tough act to follow.
Enjoy the hiatus.
In terms of 2010, there are a lot of movies coming out.
I am interested in
Robin Hood, The Way Back, The Tree of Life, possibly True Grit. Inception
I’m fairly confident in 3 nominees for Picture:
Inception
Tree of Life
127 Hours (assuming completion)
By the way, thanks for great oscar season coverage, guys. I don’t always agree with some consensus on the site, but there isn’t anyone else around beside you folks that do such a great job in terms of oscar-oriented sites. Looking forward to following another season with you all.
Am I the only one who thinks that both Annette Bening and Julianne Moore could pull off “career achievement” Oscars if campaigned right?
I feel like, assuming her character is as compelling as the one in the novel, Rebecca Hall in “The Town” is one to watch. She’s definitely owed some recognition, and soon.
Oh and Kris (or Guy), do you think Casey Affleck in “The Killer Inside Me” will be too Antichrist-y to have a shot?
Enjoy your time off! Thank you for the amazing coverage, InContention has quickly become one of my favorite websites to visit.
looking forward to the way back, true grit, black swan, inception, social network, and already loved shutter island. should be a good year
Great season, Kris. Enjoy your R&R.
I can’t see Shutter Island getting any love at the end of the year.
HEYYYY — what about Get Low? Robert Duvall finally picking up that overdue second Oscar? Sissy and Bill have also hitched their stars to this potentially golden wagon.
You seem to have left Julian Schnabel’s “Miral” out of all the contenders? I’d say Schnabel and Hiam Abbas definitely have bait-y potential.
I was going to say what LordBigsley said, Abbass, Pinto, Schnabel, and Rula Jibreel.
I think we’ll definitely see Helen Mirren nominated again come next awards season as Prospera (that’s right, Prospera) in Julie Taymor’s vision of The Tempest.
John C. Reilly and Tilda Swinton are already pretty much assured nominations (Swinton more so that Reilly) for We Need to Talk About Kevin, the new film from Morvern Callar director Lynne Ramsay.
Thanks for the contenders list, it makes for interesting reading and I know I shouldn’t say this but Awww, Channing Tatum, a contender? Awww, so proud!
2009 was cool, I wish I had stepped up (o; and placed that bet on Bullock.
But thanks Kris and et al for making this year’s Oscar Race coverage so cool.
Biutiful?
I think that Betty Ann Waters will be Juliette Lewis’s return to the Oscar, that of the other films she has in postproduction, this will be her year. Robin Wright Penn looks good to for her first nomination for the Abraham Lincoln film.
@The Irishman: The Academy isn’t going to touch “The Killer Inside Me” — or anyone in it — with a ten-foot pole. Affleck is very good in it, though.
I’ve made my early ballot based on these. Thanks.
Tree of Life: Supp Actor, Supp Actress, Pic*, Director*, Edit*, Original*, Art, Cinematography, Costumes, Score ****
Potter: VFX, Makeup, Sound****, Art, Cinematography, Costumes, Score
Inception: Actor, Supp Actor*, Supp Actress*, Original, Pic
King’s Speech: Actor*, Pic, Director, Original
Eat Pray Love: Supp Actor, Actress, Director, Pic, Adapted*
Somewhere: Director, Pic, Original*
Morning Glory: Actress*, Pic, Original
Way Back: Supp Actor, Supp Actress, Pic, Adapted, Score
Rabbit Hole: Actress, Supp Actress, Pic, Adapted
The Beaver: Pic, Director
Kids Are All Right: Actress, Pic
Chloe: Supp Actor, Actress
Fair Game: Actor, Adapted
All Good Things, Love & Other Drugs: Actor
Sympathy for Delicious: Supp Actress
Winter’s Bone: Adapted
Tron Legacy, Special Relationship: Score
But I hope Burlesque & Grand Master both come out this year, are good, and do well. Maybe I’ll make a nightmare list as well…
Ok, I’m calling it now then. Dakota Fanning as best supporting actress for The Runaways!
Can’t wait for Peter Weir’s comeback… Hope it turns out to be well.. And of course for Deathly Hallows….
Congratulations Krys! Thanks for a very comprehensive coverage this Oscar season.. Looking forward for this year till next.. ;)
“Obviously Nolan, Fincher and Aronofsky will also be players.”
omg please no. These three are insufferably overrated already. We’ll all be drowning in angry fanboyism come next awards season.
2010 is The Tree of Life. Only.
Kris, great job and many, many thanks.
I agree with all of you who see The Tree of Life as a likely major contender.
Other than possibly Thelma Schoonmaker’s editing, Shutter Island will be shut out. Its memory shelf life will not make it through the spring.
If Tree of Life comes out this year, Brad Pitt is someone who could easily pick up steam in the Best Actor race. Keira Knightley also has two dramatic roles this year, I believe.
Def interested in your take on Green Zone Kris – but thanks for you and the rest of the staff’s hard work this season, it was fun.
Tree of Life, I hope will warrant and get man noms this year including maybe a win for Pitt…
Assuming Inception lives up to the hype, here’s hoping the Academy at least nominates Nolan and his film…
“Last year the big dogs looked to be “Amelia,” “Invictus” and “Nine,” and we all know how that turned out. ”
Big dogs had The Lovely Bones as the top dog. And we all know how that turned out. Just a reminder that, no matter what personal bias on this movie is, it`s considered a turd. Critical and financial.
I`d love Inception to win BP for all snubbed sci fi movies and I expect it to be nothing short of a masterpiece.
Don`t know what Three of Life is. Nobody in my school talks about it but they buzz about Inception, IM2 and Tron Legacy.
Robin Hood looks like a Razzie contender. Like Gladiator without all the fun and dazzle.
Leo better gets nominated for his phenomenal turn in Shutter island which is also a major hit. That or for Inception.
Pulling for Runaways. Stewart and Fanning. Especially Fanning who is better than Breslins, Ronans and Whale Riders yet remains unnominated.
Way Back will bomb. Looks boring and test screening say it`s like that Pocachontas movie with Colin Farrell where he walks though high grass and that`s the whole movie. All scenery and no character or plot.
lol…no one from The Runaways is getting nominated. Stop deluding yourselves people.
@36
Considering some people here think that Slumdog bimbo, who is in some artsy flick nobody is going to see like ever, should be on Kris`s list, Runaways sound like a slamdunk.
People wanting the lead in Schnabel’s next film to be considered a contender doesnt make The Runaways a slam dunk.
Sorry lol… Dakota Fanning and Kristen Stewart are not getting nominated.
Thanks Kris you deserve a break. Other than Betty Anne Waters, I don’t see typical Oscarbait pictures for the next season.
I also forgot Carey Mulligan isn’t in Brighton Rock she was replaced by Andrea Riseborough. I have no idea why it’s still on her imdb page
Among my wishes for this year, is that both Leo and Johnny Depp turn lucky this year and get in to the race, im not going to get tired to say how overdue they are!
Hope also that Julianne Moore as well gets more than Oscar Buzz this year with her movies, specially for the kids…
Could kristen get some serious attention with the runnaways?I hope so… she is so my type haha…
Could I Love u Philip Morris or Jim Carrey made it? let see… im so courius about this…
Russell Crowe for Robin hood, he is being kinda abscent this last years let see what happens…
@ninja “Don`t know what Three of Life is. Nobody in my school talks about it but they buzz about Inception, IM2 and Tron Legacy.”
What school do you go to? Thomas Edison Middle School? “Tree of Life” has been buzzed about for YEARS.
“Nobody in my school talks about it but they buzz about Inception, IM2 and Tron Legacy”
nerdiest school ever.
I could see Tron Legacy or Inception sweeping the arts and technicals next year.
Don’t know about “Tree of Life” – don`t like Terence Malik’s movies that much. Last time he took a hiatus to make “The Thin Red Line” it didn’t really turn out that well.
Though so much can be said about the animated picture category: Pixar won’t win for Toy Story 3.
You’re missing Tangled, How to Train Your Dragon and The Illusionist in the animated feature category. They certainly have a much bigger chance than Yogi Bear.
“Last time he took a hiatus to make ‘The Thin Red Line’ it didn’t really turn out that well.”
I hope you mean it didn’t turn out that well for him as far as Oscars go. The Thin Red Line is one of the best WWII films ever made, easily.
Why am I thinking that Hilary Swank will get her third Oscar before Meryl Streep?! Please no…AMPAS has done enough damage already…
I dunno, Terrence Malick’s only really been embraced by the Academy once, so why Tree of Life is the biggest contender is beyond me. Let’s see what I have here for Picture right now….
Toy Story 3
Inception
The Conspirator
The Tempest
Hereafter
The Descendants (assuming it’s finished in time)
Love and Other Drugs
Never Let Me Go
Rabbit Hole
True Grit
For Actress, I have:
Robin Wright, The Conspirator
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Helen Mirren, The Tempest
Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
with Carey Mulligan for Never Let Me Go and Naomi Watts for Fair Game as distinct possibilities
For Actor:
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
George Clooney, The Descendants OR The American
Mel Gibson, The Beaver
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
with James McAvoy for The Conspirator and Aaron Eckhart for Rabbit Hole as possibilities.
If I had to make predictions right now, i’d say Nolan’s Inception gets the most nominations. Easily Cinematography and Art Direction considering Nolan’s track record. For technical awards I think Sound Mixing and Sound Editing are likely too. Visual Effects is going to be crowded and competitive, but I think it’ll make it in. Same case for Original Screenplay.
That’s 6 nominations.
If the film turns out to be as excellent as i’m expecting, add on Editing, Director, Picture, and an acting nomination or two. I think Inception is looking like a stronger bet than Shutter Island for DiCaprio to get a Best Actor nomination. For the supporting players, possibly a Best Supporting Actress for either Ellen Page or Marion Cotillard as well.
So 11 nominations? I hope so.
Thanks for doing this before your much deserved break!