As I like to do when Kris boldly throws out a set of winner predictions, I thought I’d follow up with an indication of which way our readers are leaning — as well as an update of my own previous guesses.
The conclusion: well, what a difference seven weeks makes. Of course, it’s inevitable that things would go topsy-turvy in this of all months, when multiple question marks have been answered — some becoming unexpectedly insistent exclamation marks in the process.
Still, I’m surprised by how dramatically my own picks have shifted, largely due to my overestimation of “Precious”‘s pop-culture sway, and my misplaced hunch that “Avatar” would disappoint. (Well, it disappointed me, but that’s hardly the deal-breaker I’d like it to be.) Today, I’m not even predicting a nomination for the man I (rather rashly) backed to win Best Director last month … such is the fickle nature of the game.
Collectively, you guys have stuck to your guns a little more than Kris and I have — most of you (probably sensibly) never shared our belief in “Precious” anyway — though “Avatar” fever has inevitably struck.
The majority of your predictions following Kris’s post yesterday align with his for the most part, though you’re evenly split on George Clooney and Jeff Bridges for Best Actor, while the few of you who ventured into below-the-line categories came up with narrowly differing leaders in Best Cinematography (“The Hurt Locker”), Makeup (“Star Trek”) and Original Score (“Up”). Still none of you are considering a foreign-language champ other than “The White Ribbon” or “A Prophet,” slightly favoring the latter.
For my part, I’m resisting the “Avatar” hype — partly, perhaps, because the prospect of a victory for Cameron’s film gives me even less pleasure than the “Precious” sweep I once foresaw, but mainly because I think the new preferential voting system for Best Picture could play havoc with conventional wisdom. With that in mind (and with humble apologies to Tom O’Neil), here are my picks. For now.
Best Picture: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Art Direction: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Costume Design: “Bright Star”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “District 9”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Letters to Father Jacob”
Best Documentary Feature: “Mugabe and the White African”
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64 responses to “December winner predictions, part 2: Yours and mine”
Best Picture: Up in the Air
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Actor: George Clooney, Up in the Air
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Marion Cotillard, Nine
Best Original Screenplay: Up
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Best Animated Feature: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Best Foreign Language Film: Baaria
Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
Best Art Direction: Nine
Best Costume Design: Nine
Best Make Up: Star Trek
Best Film Editing: Avatar
Best Original Score: Up
Best Original Song: “Cinema Italiano” Nine
Best Sound: Avatar
Best Sound Editing: Avatar
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Wow, shock horror. Guy finally succumbed to the irresistibleness of an “Inglourious Basterds” tidal wave. I’ll raise my glass of milk to that.
Best Picture: “Avatar”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Art Direction: “Avatar”
Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Costume Design: “Bright Star”
Best Film Editing: “Avatar”
Best Makeup: “District 9”
Best Music (Original Score): “Avatar”
Best Music (Original Song): “I See You” from “Avatar”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The White Ribbon Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove
Streep will be the winner of Best Actress…
Best Picture: Inglourious Basterds
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, Precious
Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Best Animated Feature: Up
Best Foreign Language Film: White Ribbon
Best Cinematography: Nine
Best Art Direction: Avatar
Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria
Best Make Up: Star Trek
Best Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Original Score: Up
Best Original Song: “Weary Kind”, Crazy Heart
Best Sound: Avatar
Best Sound Editing: Avatar
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
“The Weary Kind” reminds me of “The Wrestler” from Bruce Springsteen and “Guaranteed” from Eddie Veder. They both won the Golden Globe for Best Original Song and then neither were nominated for the Oscar. For some reason I get this eerie feeling the same will happen here.
I only care for 2 things mainly:
Inglorious Basterds:Best Screenplay
Waltz:Best Supporting
If those two happen i will extatic no matter what else goes wrong(read:Avatar wins best picture).
If i’m being less modest:
Best Picture:Basterds
Best Foreign:A Prophete
Best Animated/Score:Up
Best Art Direction:Basterds
Other predictions:
Adapted:Up In The Air
Actress:Streep
Actor:Bridges
Sup.Actress:Monique
Director:Bigelow
Cinematography:The Hurt Locker/Basterds
The 3 Techs :Avatar
Editing:The Hurt Locker
I’m glad you predict Basterds as the Best Picture and Screenplay. I think it could go all the way, esp since Nine and The Road, for the Weinstein Co. came up short.
good to see some bright star love for costumes. How about cinematography? An outside chance. Be very surprised if it scores a BP or Actress nomination at all. Such a shame
Can you tell I’m passionate about this film??
Whilst I dont think Basterds will win BP I think it is a very strong contender, particularly given Tarantino has not had his “reward” moment at the Oscars (and Cameron has)
Some nice choices but I absolutely disagree with The Hurt Locker winning Best Cinematography. I found it to be absolutely underwhelming – mostly shaky-cam, which is a huge disappointment. I think the prize may go to Basterds, but I haven’t seen many of the Oscar-running movies this year.
I agree with most of Kris’s predictons but I just can’t see Avatar winning. It’s a great movie, but not my favorite of the year and I don’t think it’s the favorite of most of the Academy.But I’m not an expert so maybe. I also think Up should win best score.
Picture: “Avator”
Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Actor: Jeff Bridges
Actress: Meryl Streep
Supporting Actor: Woody Harrelson
Supporting Actress: Anna Kendrick
Original Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds”
Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Original Score: “The Fantastic Mr. Fox”
Original Song: “Crazy Heart”
Art Direction: “Avatar”
Costume Design: “Nine”
Visual Effects: “District 9”
Makeup: “Avatar”
Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Sound Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Cinematography: “Nine”
Animated Film: “Up”
Foreign Language Film: “The Prophet”
Documentary Feature: “Food, Inc.”
Meryl Streep has been in five great movies in a row, which are all hits! Meryl signed my autograph many years ago. I was nervous with a high pitched sound, when I approached her she looked like I was crazy, but! Meryl still signed my autograph and I really respect her work! She should win this year! I have a good feeling that she will! Thank you Meryl for your great past work and present work and future work:) You are Barbara Stanwyck and Spencer Tracy in one. They were both great performers, as well as Anthony Hopkins of course! Thank you Meryl. James the hyper guy at the Academy Awards!
Best Picture: “Avatar”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Art Direction: “Avatar”
Best Cinematography: “Inglorious Basterds”
Best Costume Design: “Bright Star”
Best Film Editing: “Avatar”
Best Makeup: “District 9”
Best Music (Original Score): “Avatar”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The White Ribbon”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
The idea of Inglourious Basterds winning best picture makes me very happy. I hope these predictions ring true.
Interesting that your foreign language pick isn’t a predicted nominee on the sidebar.
Also: Mulligan > Streep
How incredibly original to choose Inglorious Basterds…almost TOO original. I get that it’s cool to buck the trend and choose something a BIT out in case it pans out and you can pat yourself on the back for being a genius…but those predicting anything beyond Up in the Air, The Hurt Locker, or Avatar are seriously fooling themselves. I understand that “nobody knows anything”…but that doesn’t give people the right to make left field predictions to stroke your own “unique” ego.
@anonymous…
Do you know how the voting works?
If a lot of voters put it at # 3 and the others get mixed around and some random ones pop in, IB could very well end up on top
I’ve been following the Oscars for sixteen years and I don’t think we’ve ever seen a split in Picture and Director predicted this early on.
I hate seeing splits in the two categories. I think that if Avatar won Best Picture then it would have to win Best Director – it’s very much a product of Cameron’s vision. That said, I loved the film but I can’t imagine it winning Best Picture and I’d be a bit disappointed it if it did. I can’t explain it.
My two favourite films of the year (of those I saw, of course – haven’t seen most of the contenders) were Inglourious Basterds and (500) Days of Summer. We’re all predicting Basterds to get in, but I would be ecstatic if the latter was nominated. Hell, give it a nomination for Original Screenplay, Director and Editing while we’re at it. I honestly believe it would be deserving of those nominations.
My predicted winners at this point in time:
Picture – The Hurt Locker
Director – Bigelow
Actor – Bridges
Actress – Bullock
Supporting Actor – Harrelson
Supporting Actress – Farmiga
Original Screenplay – Basterds
Adapted Screenplay – Up in the Air
Editing – The Hurt Locker
Cinematography – Basterds
Art Direction – Basterds
Costume Design – Bright Star
Original Score – Avatar
Original Song – Crazy Heart
Sound Mixing – Avatar
Sound Editing – Avatar
Make-Up – District 9
Visual Effects – Avatar
Animated Feature – Mary & Max
I can’t see “Inglourious Basterds” winning. It’s just much to facetious and crude of a movie. Not an ‘Oscar’ film, to put it in other words.
And “The Hurt Locker” mentioned anywhere around Best Cinematography is mind-boggling. Probably the ugliest looking film I’ve seen this year, however I thought it was intentionally shot that way to give it the really faux-documentary, shaky-cam/realism. It just doesn’t deserve to come anywhere close to an award for that.
Best Picture: Up in the Air
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie and Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Art Direction: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Costume Design: “Bright Star”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “District 9”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The White Ribbon”
Best Documentary Feature: “Mugabe and the White African”
Up in the Air (a movie I personally find overrated) seems like the only movie with no major downside. Audiences seem to love it, precursors supported it, and even a lot of critics are getting swept up in the hype. More importantly, the movie doesn’t seem to have any haters to talk people out of voting for it.
While I’ve never exactly understood the over the top love for the Hurt Locker, it does seem to be the critical darling. I think that 16 million is going to be the number that kills it. A movie which grossed that little has never won BP, at least not in the last fifty years and that’s even without doing any adjustments for inflation. I also find it a bit funny that everyone and their mother seems to think Bigelow will get the award but not the movie. Is the Academy that interested in awarding the director of Point Break?
Invictus will also probably be killed by the box office, there’s just no way that a movie can coast in by being audience pleaseing when it clearly isn’t pleasing that many audiences. I’ll bet the voters are just as disinterested by rugby as audiences.
Inglorious Basterds is easily my favorite movie of the year, but I can’t see it winning, there are just too many people out there who just don’t seem to get it.
As for Avatar… cool as it is, I just don’t see the old fogey voters taking that movie very seriously, it’s the kind of thing that gets honorable mentions rather than full prizes, I’m not sure there’s a single critic in the country who thinks its the best movie of the year.
I’m just not sure about Avatar winning BP. Sure, the fanboys are loving it, and so is the general public. But I really do feel that the (terrible) script will turn off too many Academy voters come voting time. It’s all the rage right now as the ballots go out, so I expect we will see a big sweep in the nominations for Avatar, but come actual voting time? I think its flaws will become more evident as the honeymoon fades away.
So, what does that leave? Up in the Air did well critically and at the festival circuit, but I think we can agree that in general release, the reception has been tempered. Still a very good reception, but not the ecstatic one I was expecting.
The Hurt Locker is respected, but I don’t think loved. Why? Too small. Sad but true. Inglourious Basterds I think has a very real chance at taking the whole thing. Those that love it — love it. With the new voting system, we may be in for a surprise.
But given all that, I feel in my gut that the film that will receive the benefit from the new system will be the one that as of now has seemed to trip up: Precious. It’s topical, cinematic, harrowing, and will sure leave a lasting impression. Yes, it has vocal opposition. Yes, it wasn’t a smash hit. But you know what? It was never going to be a universal pleaser. The Reel Geezers adored it, and that tells me that it’s going to appeal to a larger section of Academy voters than we’re expecting. But does that mean it will win? I can’t say…
Let’s wait until the PGA and DGA nominees are announced, and I think we may see a shift.
Best Picture: ???
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Best Actress: Gabby Sidibe, “Precious”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Art Direction: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Costume Design: “Bright Star”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “District 9”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind”, “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “A Prophet”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
Picture: “Up in the air”
Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Actor: Jeff Bridges
Actress: Meryl Streep
Supporting Actor: Woody Harrelson
Supporting Actress: Anna Kendrick
Original Screenplay: “(500) Days of Summer”
Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Original Score: “The Fantastic Mr. Fox”
Original Song: “Crazy Heart”
Art Direction: “Nine”
Costume Design: “The Young Victoria”
Visual Effects: “District 9″
Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Sound Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Cinematography: “Nine”
Animated Film: “Up”
Foreign Language Film: “The Prophet”
Documentary Feature: “Food, Inc.”
Best Picture: “Avatar”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie and Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Costume Design: “An Education”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “District 9”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Mother” (Korea)
Best Documentary Feature: “Mugabe and the White African”
Best Picture: “Avatar” (ouch)
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Viggo Mortensen, “The Road” (call me crazy)
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “Bright Star”
Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “District 9”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “I See You” from “Avatar”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The White Ribbon”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
Inglourious winning picture would be very pleasing
but cinematography being one of my favorite categories id be upset if the hurt locker won there, besides the opening sequence i found it underwelming, same with the script
Best Picture: Up In The Air
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia
This is my best bet based on the precursor awards that has been happening around. Let us see after the Critics Choice and Golden Globes.
Andrew, Titanic had a terrible script and that swept. With that in mind:
Best Picture: Avatar
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz,
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds
Best Art Direction: Avatar
Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria
Best Film Editing: Avatar
Best Makeup: District 9
Best Music (Original Score): Avatar (should be Sherlock Holmes)
Best Music (Original Song): Avatar
Best Sound Editing: Avatar
Best Sound Mixing: Avatar
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Animated Feature Film: Up
Best Documentary Feature: The Cove
I want to seriously ask anyone predicting “The Hurt Locker” for Best Cinematography a question: WHY? I’d really love an answer.
Guy I find myself agreeing with you more often than not recently. At least in terms of what should win in 2009 (and that its a weak year f0r movies).
Guy, if you read my predictions in the other thread you’d know I agree with you on the top categories (except Streep for Mulligan) inc Basterds.
Best Picture: “Up” (no I did not forget the ‘in the Air’ part)
Best Director: James Cameron, “Avatar”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Best Actress: Gabby Sidibe, “Precious”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “Up”
Best Art Direction: “Where the Wild Things Are”
Best Cinematography: “Avatar”
Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria”
Best Film Editing: “Avatar”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Avatar”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind”, “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “ Samson & Delilah”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
Inglourious Basterds and Up in the Air are the only two films that have a good shot at BP in my book. I think the key is support nominations/wins from the writing, directing and acting branches. The Academy loves to mark up their ballot with their BP winner selection in the other 7 major categories.
Inglourious Basterds path to victory needs screenplay, s. actor and a tech or two. Just like Guy’s predictions.
Up in the Air needs screenplay, actor and maybe a tech like editing.
The Hurt Locker will probably get a nomination from all three branches. It must win both Screenplay and Director. However, I just don’t see them giving BP to a movie that has made barely any money. I know I am beating a dead horse.
Avatar will most likely only get 1 major nomination besides BP, for BD. The acting branch will not support this movie. Has a movie ever won BP in the last 50 years without nominations in writing and acting? I know Titanic missed a writing nomination, but at least it had 2 nominations from the actors.
Also, the new voting system for BP could throw a wrench at everything, with some movie winning BP out of nowhere.
I love that this year is wide open and everything can change on a dime! I know Kris has written about how he thinks this is one of the strongest years of the decade, but I think it is one of the weakest in my opinion. It is still a lot of fun to follow though.
Basterds won’t win because it is not a serious movie. I love the movie but in some way its a… not spoof exactly but I really don’t think the Academy will be game enough to go for it when there are other definitely serious movies.
Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges
Best Actress: Meryl Streep
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds seems likely but again, I think it might not win for some reason. A Serious Man maybe or even Up for that matter.
Best Art Direction: Inglourious Basterds. The old academy will think there were no sets in Avatar and not vote for it.
Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
Best Costume Design: Inglourious Basterds (or The Young Victoria)
Best Film Editing: The Hurt Locker (or Avatar)
Best Makeup: ??
Best Music (Original Score): Avatar
Best Music (Original Song): The Weary Kind
Best Sound Editing: Avatar
Best Sound Mixing: Avatar
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Animated Feature Film: Up
Best Foreign Language Film: A Prophet
Best Documentary Feature: ???
Saw Up in the Air and felt that it is only an OK movie with a superb 45 mins, as good as other great movies I’ve seen this year, and then suddenly it just lost focus and it seems everything Reitman is juggling suddenly collapse. What’s the point of Farminga’s character going to Clooney’s sister wedding when she has a family and seems determined to treat this like a fling?? Actually love Kendrick the most in the movie, and found Bateman annoying with his “Batemanisms” . Didn’t buy that the movie is “timely” because it’s too vauge, and also the phillosophy of the movie being a bit naive. No, making connections is important in real life, but it does not automatically makes us happy. Life is complicated, and I don’t need someone to smack me in the face with this. However, the movie is less gimmicky than Juno, but unfortunately less emotional.
I think Streep will deservely win Best Actress, Avatar will win Best Picture, Bigelow will take Director and Reitman will get Screenplay.
Speaking English: I guess it depends on how you define good (or the best) cinematography. For me, the camerawork and lighting of The Hurt Locker plunged me into the heart-stopping suspense of each bomb disposal. I know that previous sentence is full of cliches, but it really did! And I also felt that the look of the film captured both the heat and dust and grit of the locations and the grittiness of the main character’s agitated devil-may-care state of mind. I think The Hurt Locker would be a worthy winner.
Inglourious Basterds had my other favourite cinematography of the year (alongside Bright Star), but this was in a different way: classically framed and composed, attractively lit, glamorous and absorbing. Great achievements, too…which is why I’d be hard-pressed to choose between them (but that’s the bane of awards season in general!).
Someone help me out:
I’m predicting Hurt Locker to win the PGA and DGA, and Bigelow to win the Globe.
Up in the Air wins the WGA and Globe BP.
Inglourious wins the WGA and maybe SAG (although that’s a real crapshoot).
And I want to predict Avatar for BP, because I am a sheep. Has anything won BP without winning any of the 4 major guilds or the Golden Globe for BP? Crash won the WGA and SAG (sigh), and then I thought maybe Braveheart, but that won the WGA.
What was the last BP winner to not score a SAG or WGA nom?
I know rules are there to be broken, especially with the new system, and Avatar being the first 3D/scifi winner potentially. Still. Food for my thoughts.
If the WGA or Oscars hand Avatar a screenplay nom, then I’m putting a lot of money on it sweeping ROTK style.
If the WGA or Oscars hand Avatar a screenplay nom, then I’m putting a lot of money on outrage across the internet. However the WGA might nominate it because they nominated Titanic.
The Hurt Locker won’t win PGA because the producers won’t give the win to a box-office failure. DGA would be a major test for The Hurt Locker. If the mostly white male DGA award Bigelow, The Hurt Locker will have a smooth pass through the rest of the season.
I actually think “Inglourious Basterds” will take the PGA in a situation similar to “Moulin Rouge!” Wunderkind director taking a stab at a time-honoured genre with wildly successful results. Plus both her successful summer movies yet also not traditional.
Right now I just don’t see any other winner than Up in the Air or The Hurt Locker.
If Avatar or Inglourious Basterds should win they need to start winning other big awards. I don’t see Golden Globe going for either of them though and I will be very surprised if Bigelow doesn’t take the Directors Guild.
So that leaves Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild ensemble as the big ones you normally need to win to be a contender to win the Oscar for best picture. Avatar can’t win the SAG. But if IB wins the SAG ensemble and Avatar wins the Producers Guild, then we can talk about this again!
But of course, nobody knows anything ;)
Picture: Up in the Air
Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Actress: Meryl Streep
Actor: Jeff Bridges
Sup Actor: Christoph Waltz
Sup Actress: MoNique
Original: Basterds
Adapted: Up in the Air
Cinematography: Locker
Art Direction: Basterds
Costume: Young Victoria
Score: Up
Song: Precious
Sound: Avatar
Sound Editing: Avatar
Makeup: District 9
VFX: Avatar
Foreign: A Prophet
Doc: The Cove
Animated: Up
Streep’s win depends on how much press she gets about her loosing streak. If it’s the same as last year, she’ll win.
If “Avatar” wins Best Original Screenplay, I’ll slit my wrists.
Inglourious Basterds > Avatar
Although I do love both films, but I think Inglourious Basterds was the better film overall.
@ Lance, good point about Streep. For all her nominations, the last time that she won one was twenty-five years ago.
Picture
“Up in the Air”
Director
Kathryn Bigelow
Actor
George Clooney
Actress
Meryl Streep
Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz
Supporting Actress
Mo’Nique
Adapted Screenplay
“Up in the Air”
Original Screenplay
“Inglourious Basterds”
Animated Feature
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
Documentary Feature
“The Cove”
Foreign Language Film
“The White Ribbon”
Art Direction
“Nine”
Cinematography
“The White Ribbon”
Costume Design
“Nine”
Film Editing
“Avatar”
Original Score
“A Single Man”
Original Song
“Crazy Heart”
Sound Mixing
“Avatar”
Sound Editing
“Avatar”
Makeup
“District 9”
Visual Effects
“Avatar”
Is it stupid of me to actually worry that Sandra Bullock might win!!??
I bet they’ll give her the Golden Globe and then the fear will be completely unbearable.
“I understand that “nobody knows anything”…but that doesn’t give people the right to make left field predictions to stroke your own “unique” ego.”
@Anonymous #16: When you start talking about having “the right” to make a prediction, you’re probably taking the race a little too seriously. It’s a game. Loosen up.
That said, there’s nothing disingenuous about my “Basterds” prediction — and I’m certainly not the first to go there. Personally, I think the SAG ensemble award could be a bellwether here.