David Carr says the film “crashed the Producers Guild nomination list.” Susan King says it was “perhaps the biggest surprise of the nominees.” The guys at HitFix put the film in both the headline and the lead, indicating some level of surpassed expectation (though that is admittedly my own reading of the editorial choices).
Help me out here. Am I the only one who thought “The Dark Knight” was guaranteed a PGA nomination this morning? It was probably the film’s most likely mention in the entire precursor circuit, and that includes any nomination Heath Ledger has received. This is a group that respects the dollar, folks. “Harry Potter,” “Shrek,” “The Incredibles.” Hell, there were even those expecting “Spider-Man” might crack the list in 2002. So it’s kind of easy to anticipate a $500 million behemoth like this making it in, no?
Am I crazy?
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37 responses to “You’re kidding me with the surprise, right?”
No, you’re absolutely right. The five nominees and the three nominees for animated were all the consensus pics. Now if Wall-E had “crashed” the top 5, then there might have been something to write about. But now that they have the separate animated category, that was looking less likely anyway.
You’re not crazy.
And I just have to say David Carr is the most out-of-touch pundit in the Oscar game. He seems to live in a bubble, similar to Jeff Wells’. He’s a bit of an arrogant fellow to boot.
/rant
Agreed. “TDK” was a slam-dunk that would likely have scored with the PGA even it wasn’t a major Oscar contender, a la “Harry Potter” or “My Big Fat Greek Wedding.” After all, we’re talking production here, not filmmaking… a subtle but significant difference.
Some people just don’t pay enough attention.
Lord of the Rings was 5 years ago. That’s plenty of time for people to forget that blockbuster movies can actually be Oscar contenders.
Anyway, if The Dark Knight gets nominated for Best Picture, it’ll become a frontrunner based on the wall-to-wall “Holy crap, a comic book movie got nominated for the Oscar!” coverage from every media outlet in America. The drum beat is going to be deafening and people are either going to be ecstatic or infuriated with it by the end of February.
I think it was showing some signs of losing a bit of steam for a while there, but I always knew it would score a PGA nomination. I think that at this point, it’s sitting at a 90% chance of getting in to the Best Picture nominees, with the 10% depending upon a DGA nomination. I think that the PGA nomination itself spoke volumes. Plus, lets not forget that nominations are only determined by those who would be recipients of the actual award. So the producers of the academy nominate Best Picture, etc. Since most producers in the academy are members of the PGA as well, I think the nomination here all but locks it up. I personally think that aside from Frost/Nixon, they got the list pretty much right. I personally would have switched out Ron Howard’s incredibly average film with The Wrestler, a far superior film, but oh well.
I was expecting TDK AND Wall-E. Damn those animation categories. I further expect the TDK and Chris Nolan to pick up a DGA nomination. Would love to see Andrew Stanton as well, but that’s obviously less likely.
I reckon they haven’t looked back in producers’ previous nominees. I also thought The Dark Knight would be a sure thing here. I guess it also will get the DGA nom and it’ll eventually lead to its Oscar nod in the main category. Out of this 5, Frost/Nixon seems to be the most volnurable, but most likely there won’t be any surprises. Personally, I’d replace Milk.
I suppose the last time a “blockbuster” film (aside from the LotR movies) was really in the Oscar mix was with Gladiator in 2001…and it won. Mind you, I suppose that had “historical” pretensions. That was a strange year, as Crouching Tiger (action-oriented, and foreign-language!) was also on the short list.
Nope, you are not crazy — this was all but a done deal — why they are writing it is a surprise is simply, for lack of a better word…surprising.
Kevin: All Academy members vote for the Best Picture nominees, not just the producers’ branch.
Def not surprising at all. The PGA is all about rewarding good movies that are profitable, thats why Lil miss sunshine won and the diving bell and butterfly was nommed. The question is if this year follows the 4/5 trend, which film will get dumped which film will step in?
Anthony: No, take it from me, Carr is the least arrogant guy around. And his “bubble” thing is kind of his shtick. He’s a great guy. I’ll never have a bad thing to say about him.
Really, Guy? I thought the producers nominated the films, and then everyone voted on the winner…
JC is correct, everyone gets to vote on the winners, but only each branch gets to vote on nominations.
I’ve thought TDK had this sewn up since it’s first week at the box office – people just want their hits.
If TDK does get snubbed, which I still feel is a definite possibility, there are gonna be nerd riots.
JC: Nope, the Best Picture nominees are based on votes from all Academy members. Nominees in all other categories are peer-voted, however. Trust me on this.
Interesting that a film has to have at least one first place vote to be considered. Frost/Nixon might not be a lock after all…
There’s no real reason to second-guess Frost/Nixon. It’s showing up everywhere. Unless Opie gets snubbed at the DGAs I think its safe.
Well, I think it’ll get at least ONE first place vote, JC. What do you think Ron Howard is voting for?
;)
Kris: I’ll take your word for it. Apologies to Mr. Carr.
Guy: I wasn’t arguing, just surprised…
(As you can see from post #17, I skimmed over the Oscar voting regulations a few minutes ago.)
“If TDK does get snubbed, which I still feel is a definite possibility, there are gonna be nerd riots.”
Well, sure. But I think many of the average, non-comic-book-loving moviegoers out there that just enjoy an ambitious crime/action drama are going to be more than a little disappointed as well. It’ll be interesting to see how the Oscar viewership differs this year if TDK gets in.
“Well, I think it’ll get at least ONE first place vote, JC. What do you think Ron Howard is voting for?
;)”
Oh yeah. D’oh.
Wait… so if directors only nominate directors and actors only nominate actors, why don’t the DGA and SAG lineups perfectly coincide with Oscar? What am I missing?
Speaking English: The guilds have more members than the academy branches, therefore the results may vary
JC: Nail meet head. The idea that all people who liked The Dark Knight are pocket-protector carrying nerds is getting tiresome. I know that’s not what you were indicating Brian, but it’s frustrating nonetheless.
The reason it became as beloved as it did was because of an all-time brilliant performance and its engaging clash of ideas (borderline philosophy) and action.
It became a cultural event, not a nerd event.
Anthony: Obviously I agree. It makes me laugh, too, how people assume that most of the, what?, 324,000 people who gave high marks to TDK on imdb.com are Batman fanboys. As though no one else was able to vote and/or drag down the average if they wanted to. Not saying it belongs at #4 overall, per se, but, quite frankly, if a film appeals to cinephiles AND casual moviegoers, it’s gonna rank high.
I expected a PGA nomination for The Dark Knight, and I’m expecting a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars as well.
A lot of people are just in denial about The Dark Knight. They can’t believe that a superhero movie is actually being in this much consideration for an award that prestigious. Susan King and a lot of other people at The Envelope are some of the more snobby people that predict Oscars, so it’s nothing new that people are surprised by The Dark Knight’s awards recognition.
I truly hope it gets nominated at the Oscars just to shut all the snobby people up that said it would never stand a chance at Best Picture.
I completely expected a PGA nomination for TDK …and a victory.
Geez, Chris, I was going to post literally the same thing you just did. I obviously agree 100%- I expect the DGA nom and I expect a Best Picture nom, too.
Susan King is clueless.
The box office is incidental. It just so happens that art and commerce blended beautifully in “The Dark Knight” and that usually is not the case with big Hollywood films. The indies usually steal the limelight but this year they will have to step aside and be content just being nominated. “The Dark Knight” deserves every accolade it receives.
I didn’t think the nomination was necessarily in the bag, but it’s hardly a big surprise since the film has so many delirious fans (I’m not one of them).
I was expecting too much from the film–maybe I need to see it again. The film seemed about a half hour too long.
This was a huge boost for The dark Knight, which had been losing some momentum. This was no surprise however. It was either going to be WALL-E or the Dark Knight. What hurt WALL-E is there is already a PGA category for animated movies. The PGA could be the push that will eventually lead the Dark Knight to the best picture nomination, making it the first comic book movie to recieve this nomination. If the Dark Knight does not recieve this nomination i highly doubt any other comic book movie for years to come will be able to. It is a shame WALL-E did get a nomination but perhaps it will get lucky in either the WGA or DGA. Slumdog Millionaire and Curious Case of Benjamin Button are guarenteed nominations especially if they get nominations at the DGAs. Like a few people have stated Frost Nixon is vulnerable, especially for best director for it seems Andrew Stanton or Darren Aronofsky might take his place. It will be a shame if Milk does not make the five for best picture come oscars. It was a truly moving and inspirational film that i believed felt like a best picture type movie, more so than Frost Nixon and Curious Case of Benjamin Button. It is still possible for The Wrestler to snag a nomination for Best Picture although it is unlikely.
A somewhat expected SAG ensemble snub isn’t “losing momentum,” I’m sorry.
“After all, we’re talking production here, not filmmaking… a subtle but significant difference.”
Well how does that explain “Frost/Nixon”? And the “it needs #1 votes!!!” argument is flawed. Obviously it’s the truth, but the idea that Academy members only put certain films in their #1 spot is silly considering some of the films nominated in the recent past. “Seabiscuit”, “Chocolat”, “Cider House Rules” and “The Green Mile” are hardly seem like the sort of movies that people would be clamouring to hail as the best movie of the year and to place at the top of their ballot and yet there they are as Best Picture nominees.
I agree with you. The Dark Knight was a lock for a PGA nomination.
I think this is a case where Carr’s relative detachment from the Oscar race is hindering his powers of prediction. That’s because for the first time in years, a genuine Oscar contender was released during summer blockbuster season, and Carr’s been underestimating it for the last month.
I think the WALL-E pipe dream is becoming less and less likely. It has been confirmed recently that Andrew Stanton is not eligible for a DGA award, which pretty much rules out any Best Picture hopes WALL-E had. I think that these five we see here are gonna be the five we see Jan. 22