UPDATE: I was in a bit of a rush earlier, but reading it again in more detail, I suspect these are not the thoughts of an AMPAS member, but Ebert’s own predictions in playfully disguised form. Still an interesting read, but several pinches of salt perhaps required.
EARLIER: Heath Ledger will win the Oscar next February. It’s a done deal. The other four nominees may as well not show up.
That’s not my opinion there. It’s that (albeit in paraphrased form) of the so-called “Deep Vote,” an Academy insider who recently shared his perspective on the race with Roger Ebert. In an amusing post on his website, Ebert has written up the conversation he had with his mole, and runs through Deep Vote’s other picks — some of which are a little more surprising than the one divulged above.
I always take such perspectives with a grain of salt — just because someone is a member of the Academy, after all, doesn’t mean they can read the minds of 6,000-odd other voters. But it does provide some interesting insight into which names are in play and generating heat, even if I find it hard to square with certain proclamations.
For example, I’m sceptical that Jonathan Demme is a “lock” for a Best Director nomination, as is claimed here. It does suggest, however, that there might be more support for him than I expected. I was also interested to see that he has “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” in his “maybe” pile for a Best Picture nod, behind the likes of “Slumdog Millionaire,” “Frost/Nixon,” “Revolutionary Road,” “Doubt” and “The Reader.” And I liked this tidbit, which suggests he’s a bit more sophisticated than the average AMPAS voter:
‘Synecdoche, New York’ is easily good enough, but they’re embarrassed you had to explain it to them.”
Heh. Most surprising of all, possibly, is his ballsy winner prediction in the currently very contentious Best Actress category. Running through the usual suspects, he dismisses the possibility of a Meryl Streep victory, but thinks it “might be” Sally Hawkins in “Happy-Go-Lucky,” saying it’s a “devilishly tricky role, and she was brilliant.” (I agree, but you probably know that by now.) But when it comes to the crunch:
“Who will win?” I whisper.
“Melissa Leo in ‘Frozen River’,” he writes. “Best performance of the year, hands down. The public isn’t sure who she is, but she’s been working since 1984 and has 76 film and TV credits. Every actor in the business has worked with her, except for Kevin Bacon. If they work together, the Game grows exponentially. Actors nominate actors.
Wow. I have to say Leo was wavering in my own predictions, but he raises a factor I hadn’t really taken into consideration. As I said before, it’s all a lot of fumbling in the dark at this point, but it’s fun reading nonetheless. Check out the rest here.
Comments
26 responses to “Ebert sidles up to ‘Deep Vote’”
I thought predicting that Melissa Leo would simply be nominated would be a ballsy enough pick, but saying she will win? The only other actress driven film I’ve seen is Changeling, so I can’t accurately weigh Leo’s chances, but I think and hope it highly unlikely that her performance is the best of the year. Don’t get me wrong, she was great, as well as the movie, it’s just that I didn’t feel that her role required exceptional acting to achieve its goal within the film.
I disagree, Scott. I think the fine moral/ethical conflict within the character is very tough to charter, and she absolutely nails it. It’s a low-key performance, for sure, but one I think the assurance of her performance possibly makes it look easier than it really was.
Anyway, just a different opinion. I’ve been a fan of Leo’s ever since ‘Homicide,’ and I’d like to see her nominated — not just for her, but for all the older, less glamorous actors like her who so often go unrewarded.
So refreshing that Deep Vote predictions!
My predictions just for fun
PICTURE
Australia*
The Dark Knight
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle/Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry/The Reader
Baz Luhrman/Australia*
Christopher Nolan/The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant/Milk
ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio/RR
Richard Jenkins/The Visitor
Frank Langella/Frost-Nixon*
Sean Penn/Milk
Mickey Rourke/The Wrestler
ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo/Frozen River
Kristin Scott Thomas/I´ve Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep/Doubt
Kate Winslet/The Reader*
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin/Milk
Ralph Fiennes/The Reader
Phillip Seymour Hoffman/Doubt
Heath Ledger/The Dark Knight*
Michael Shannon/RR
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz/Vicky Cristina Barcelona*
Viola Davis/Doubt
Rosemarie Dewitt/Rachel Getting Married
Marisa Tomei/The Wrestler
Debra Winger/Rachel Getting Married
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married*
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
The Visitor
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Doubt
Frost-Nixon
Gomorrah
The Reader
Revolutionary Road*
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Australia*
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Revolutionary Road
FILM EDITING
Australia*
The Dark Knight
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
“You had to explain it to them”? Who? Ebert?
A little self-serving, seeing as how Ebert’s riding that Charlie Kaufman obscure bore to death.
i’m glad to see Lion’s Den predicted in the foreign category,
It appears he’s changed the Heath Ledger comment since then…
“Best Supporting Actor,” he writes, “will be won by Heath Ledger. Period. For the other contenders, the nomination itself will be their reward.”
Which is different than what you have down. Whatever.
I also find it odd he’s not aware Winslet will be going Supporting for “The Reader” and will earn double nominations, and that he talks about Sophie Okonedo in “The Secret Life of Bees.” Weird.
@ Harry: I don’t think the “you” necessarily refers to Ebert — I think it’s being used passively.
@ Speaking English: I wasn’t quoting directly, but I can see how my phrasing would make you think that. My bad. It’s essentially what he’s saying.
Oh, haha. What you have written seems like a bigger slap in the face to the other nominees than what he actually wrote, so that’s why I questioned it. I was thinking perhaps he changed it so it wouldn’t be as severe. My bad!
I love the quote regarding Synecdoche :D.
i take all “insider” perspectives with a grain of salt bigger than the titanic ice berg
No JOlie or Blanchett in Best Actress category?
Does the Academy (if we believe Deep Vote) see the actress category as only a six horse rase? We, here at the forum and at others, go over ourselves about how crowded it is. BUt the academy does not see it this way?
Leo had her DVD already sent, and i’m not sure about Hathaway. Streep and Winslet are names that cannot be ignored (the biggest ones at the moment), and Hawkins & Scot-Thomas are the critics’ darlings that we read in the papers about. Are those six enough for the Academy? After all they have other categories to sort out.
But still i really hope Jolie gets the nomination (injustly snubbed last year and she’s my favorite).
Well, whatever.It’s questionable if we should trust in this Deep Vote, but it was just ineresting for me.
I sense senility with a touch of deluded moxie.
tdr: I don’t think he was necessarily listing ALL the possible contenders. (Though personally, I’m not banking on a Jolie nomination. Not that I haven’t been wrong a million times before!)
Andrew L: Senile… deluded… sounds like a lot of Academy members to me! ;)
Do you really think Gran Torino will do well? For me, the trailer is almost laughably contrived (and I usually love Eastwood)
…just a note: kristen scott thomas is doing chekov on broadway, not ibsen. something that just bothered me a little…
Yeah, I noticed that too, JP — KST will be bothered by that if she sees it, as she’s actually said in interviews that she can’t bear Ibsen!
Kristin Scott-Thomas is doing Chekov on Broadway, not Ibsen…does Deep Vote know what he/she is talking about?
I don’t know about Leo, but I’ve been saying since I saw the film that Demme’s directorial achievement in RGM cannot be ignored by the directors branch and at least a DGA nom is inevitable… I think he’ll get an Oscar nom as well…
Just read your predictions, Guy. Wow. Ballsy. I’m not sure if this is what you THINK’s gonna happen or if this is a personal wish list…
Silencio: Mostly what I think will happen, with the odd bit of wishful thinking stirred in. Until the precursors actually start chiming in, and a clearer picture forms, I like to play a bit.
Also, the less likely ones are often filling spots for bigger contenders that I think will get snubbed. I think I need more “Milk” in there, though.
This is a strange post on Ebert’s part.
This person’s predictions at least shake things up enough to make the Critics awards a little more relevant. The fact is, we don’t have a frontrunner right now.
If you read a little between the lines, I think you could extrapolate that there is no acting frontrunner right now. You can tell he Hopes for Melissa Leo, but He also throws a heck of a lot of other names that he thinks academy members are cognicant of.
Hathaway, Streep, Winslet, Leo, Hawkins, or Thomas all seem to be capable of winning.
Most interesting was who he left out: Angelina Jolie. That would be suprise, now wouldn’t it?
He mentions Brolin for Best Actor but no DiCaprio?
If it’s Eastwood, I’m going to puke.
I think this is an alter-ego, Ebert prediction article, personally.
Yeah, reading it again more carefully, I reached the same conclusion.
Oh well, I’ll humour him.
Well you gotta say, it’s way more fun thinking of a secret meeting in a video store in an obscure midwestern city, right? And it’s not even in the foreign film section, which would have been awesome.
Why are people so iffy about A. Hathaway’s very possible nomination for “Best Actress” ? Every year the Academy nominates at least one young , up & coming actress in this catagory. Few examples are : Marion Cotillard, Gwyneth Paltrow, Kiera Knightley, and Catalina Sandino Moreno.
Hathaway is known within the industry for her kindness & professionalism . Academy members will not forget how she handled the tabloid media storm of her ex-boyfriend with dignity, grace, and humor.
Plus, she was good on SNL. She killed the “Mary Poppins” SNL skit (Who knew she has a lovely singing voice?).
[…] people seem to believe that a win is equally inevitable. He’s certainly the one to beat, with a mighty combination of factors in his favour — […]