In Contention

Tag: Frozen River

  • What will be this year’s Sundance story?

    I must confess, this year’s Sundance Film Festival kind of passed me by. Admittedly, I’ve been distracted by a busy couple of weeks on the awards circuit, but the Sundance coverage I did follow suggested a high-quality if nonetheless rather quiet festival, one with fewer noisy breakout films than usual.

    In the last few years, it’s been worth keeping an eye (or an ear, rather) on the Sundance buzz, as the festival has birthed a number of future critical hits, and even awards-season success stories: recent Best Picture nominees “Little Miss Sunshine,” “Precious,” “An Education” and now “The Kids Are All Right” and “Winter’s Bone” all premiered there, as did “Frozen River,” “Blue Valentine” and a plethora of Oscar-nominated documentaries. (No fewer than four of this year’s Best Documentary Feature nominees are Sundance babies.)

    So it’s easy to assume at least one film from this year’s Sundance crop is something we’ll still be talking about a year from now — but where the crossover potential for a film like “The Kids Are All Right,” or a performance like Jennifer Lawrence’s, was immediately evident, this year’s potential Sundance “stories” don’t seem quite as obvious.

    (more…)

  • ‘Winter’s Bone’ takes Sundance gold

    Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's BoneTalk about a good day for female filmmakers. Hours before Kathryn Bigelow’s history-making triumph at the DGA Awards, Debra Granik took the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance (in the U.S. Dramatic strand) for her critically lauded sophomore feature “Winter’s Bone.” Granik and co-writer Anne Rosselini also took screenwriting honors for the film.

    The film is one I had highlighted last month as a title to watch, so I’m glad to see it living up to expectations. I’m an admirer of Granik’s 2004 debut “Down to the Bone,” which put Vera Farmiga on the map — hopefully, “Winter’s Bone” can similarly boost the fortunes of young Jennifer Lawrence, who so excelled in “The Burning Plain” earlier this year.

    Granik’s film stars Lawrence as a resilient teenager searching for her missing father in the Ozark Mountains. Comparisons have already been made to Courtney Hunt’s “Frozen River,” which took the same award at Sundance two years ago.

    The corresponding Grand Jury Prize winner in the documentary category was Sebastien Junger and Tim Hetherington’s debut effort “Restrepo,” a chronicle of one year in the lives of the Second Platoon in Afghanistan’s deadly Korengal Valley.

    (more…)

  • Is there a ‘Precious’ in this year’s Sundance lineup?

    (from left) Chyna Layne, Amina Robinson and Gabourey Sidibe in PreciousWhen (at this stage, I think it’s safe to say “when”) “Precious” and “An Education” land Best Picture nods on Tuesday morning, there will be an interesting trivia note to attach to the occasion: they’ll be the first Sundance competition entries since 2001 to make it all the way to Oscar’s top race.

    Indeed, “Precious” will be the first Sundance Grand Jury Prize winner ever to score a Best Picture Oscar nod in the festival’s 25-year history.

    These are two interesting stats that aren’t mentioned in AP writer David Germain’s story on the relationship between Sundance and Oscar, which casts a more positive gaze on the number of overlaps between the two. And he’s right to an extent: the past decade alone has given Oscar-watchers plenty of reason to keep a close eye on Sundance.

    In the eight years since “In the Bedroom” became the last Sundance contender to crack the Best Picture lineup,  Sundance has presented a number of future Oscar contenders in acting and writing categories, including “Maria Full of Grace,” “Hustle and Flow,” “Junebug,” “The Squid and the Whale,” “Half Nelson” and, most recently, “Frozen River.”

    (more…)

  • THE LONG SHOT: Post early for Christmas

    Jeremy Renner in The Hurt LockerLondon is in the midst of a postal strike. No mail, be it far-flung postcard or electricity bill, has popped through my front door for over a month. I recently had to stroll into Soho to pick up my London Film Festival accreditation pack by hand. And rather discouragingly, my local post office today put a hastily scrawled sign in the window: “Post NOW for delivery by Christmas.”

    If you’re wondering why I’ve started this week’s column with this fascinating tidbit from my domestic life – apart from the fact that, as Kris noted, the crickets are chirping in awardsville this week – it’s because, as I stared disbelievingly at the sign, it occurred to me that a similar memo should be sent to several specialty studios hoping for a stake in this awards season. (Yes, my mind works in curious ways.)

    In short: you have a little package that needs to deliver in time for Oscar consideration? Don’t wait until December. Send it out now.

    This may seem like crazy advice given Oscar voters’ ever-growing love affair with winter releases. Just last year, no pre-November release made the Best Picture cut. And Harvey Weinstein has proved time and again that substantial rewards can be reaped if you spring a film upon the Academy without giving them too much time to think about it – from “The Cider House Rules” to “Chocolat” to “The Reader,” he knows which films won’t survive a few months of critical and industry scrutiny.

    (more…)

  • 7/8 Web Round-up

    Woodstock• AMPAS elects its governors. Among those returning to the board: Tom Hanks, James L. Brooks and eternal Oscar bridesmaid Kevin O’Connell. [Variety]

    • Nat Rogers reflects on his favorite thesps of the decade’s first half… and how they’ve fared since. [The Film Experience]

    • Martin Scorsese looks back on Woodstock. A good read, this. [Times of London]

    • Ebert has some choice words for the “Transformers” defenders. [Roger Ebert’s Journal]

    • Noah Forrest boards the “Hurt Locker” train. [Movie City News]

    • Ahead of “Frozen River”‘s long-delayed UK release, Melissa Leo talks about how an Oscar nod has changed her career. [Times of London]

    • Celebrating the delights of the movie-mangling “Cinemash” web series. [Los Angeles Times]

    • Why Nicolas Cage should still be in the conversation for Superman. Uh, right. [The Guardian]

  • ‘The Wrestler’ wins big at the Indie Spirits

    Mickey RourkeDarren Aronofsky’s “The Wrestler” walked away three trophies at today’s Independent Spirit Awards, including top honors for Best Actor (Mickey Rourke) and Best Feature.

    In his greatest acceptance speech of the season, Rourke seemed fully uninhibited, almost as if he said, “Screw it, ballots are in,” and he cut loose.  The tough guy thing poked through here and there as well as a lot of humorous forgetfulness. (He thanked Searchlight honcho Peter Rice and Rice’s “boss, Jim Jimanopoulos, or something like that.”  Of course he meant Fox studio chief Jim Gianopoulos).  But mostly, it was expletive-laden (like the Spirits like), raunchy and overall, still strangely endearing.

    Rourke briefly dedicated the award to recently deceased pet chihuahua Loki, of course, in a choked-up moment that seemed to beautifully contrast with the rest of the rant.  He held the mic like a rock star might, pushing it away during the applause moments and bringing it back to his lips to finish his thoughts.  He also dedicated a solid 60 seconds to his friend Eric Roberts.  “Whatever he did 15, 20 years ago should be forgiven,” Rourke said.  “Eric Roberts is the fucking man and he deserves a second chance.  I wish there’d be one God damned filmmaker in this room that’d let him fly because the man is something else.”

    Melissa Leo’s speech in acceptance of the lead actress award — not so much.  She rambled, she seemed self-involved, overly dramatic, pompous…let’s just say it’s probably a good thing she hasn’t accepted too many awards publicly this year because I think it would have damaged her Oscar chances.  That’s just me, but it’s a hell of a performance and justly rewarded tonight.

    “Milk” won two trophies early on, James Franco taking down a win in the Best Supporting Actor category and Dustin Lance Black’s first screenplay award.  “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” also secured a pair: Best Screenplay for Woody Allen and Best Supporting Actress for Penelope Cruz.

    Tom McCarthy won the Best Director prize despite his film “The Visitor” not showing up in the Best Feature category, while Charlie Kaufman took home the Best First Feature prize for the exceptional “Synecdoche, New York,” which also won the pre-announced Robert Altman Award.

    (More, plus the full list of winners after the jump.)

    (more…)

  • You were right, I was wrong: Guy’s final predictions

    (Expanded thoughts and reasonings on yesterday’s list of predictions.)

    It’s years like 2008 when I throw my hands up and admit (albeit with great reluctance) that my family and friends have been right for the last two decades. Carla, Tom, Kim, Auntie Mavis: I give up. I am insane to care as much as I do about the Oscars. They are stupid. They don’t matter, and I really should find something more important and rewarding to care about, like, oh, needlepoint classes or professional darts championships.

    But who am I kidding? I will always care about the Oscars, even in years like this when the race is so dry, and its significance so questionable, that I take great care in not caring. In a year when so few of my personal favourites have cracked the contenders list, it has at least been interesting to sit back and watch the furore unfold over the Academy voters’ spectacularly self-sabotaging antics this year.

    I’ve been wrong about a lot of things this year (Kris scoffed at my naive suggestion back in July that “Happy-Go-Lucky” could be a Best Picture nominee, and he was right to), and right about … well … “Milk’s” nomination for Best Costume Design. (Hey, let me salvage some glory from this year’s meagre spoils.) I don’t expect to be a hell of a lot more successful with the following predictions, but you never know. It’s still been a lot of fun riding out the season with you this year – here’s to a better slate of contenders (and a lot less grousing from me) in 12 months’ time.

    BEST PICTURE
    Apart from the fact that it is the most imaginative and entertaining of this year’s feeble clutch of nominees, the reason “Slumdog Millionaire” has a stranglehold on this category is because it’s the only one of the five that has any discernible relationship to contemporary cinema. The other four all feel to varying degrees like the finely-tooled Best Picture winners of decades past, but the younger, more curious Academy members have been moving away from such self-consciously packaged ‘prestige product’ in the past few years – even if they need a lot of pointing towards what to reward in its stead.

    (more…)

  • WEEKLY WRAP: BAFTAs, Berlin, pre-Oscar jitters

    Aside from two major precursors, it’s been a slow week for news — which leads to a lot of prediction second-guessing.

    • “Slumdog” swept at the BAFTAs, which also put new wind in Mickey Rourke’s sails. We live-blogged it here.

    • The “Slumdog” streak inevitably continued at the WGA Awards, where “Milk” picked up some hardware too.

    • This week’s Off the Carpet column was just eager to move on already.

    • Taking a closer look at the often inscrutable Best Documentary Short race.

    • Speaking of documentaries, we wondered if a win for “Man on Wire” is the foregone conclusion that people think it is.

    • On a similar tack, do we have a real race in the Best Foreign Language Film category?

    • In a bit of a blow to next week’s Oscarcast, Peter Gabriel has nixed his participation.

    • A survey of some of the industry’s top DPs suggests that “Slumdog” looks like the one to beat for Best Cinematography too.

    • Should we be mindful of a third possibility in the Best Actor race?

    • Perhaps another underdog, “Frozen River,” has hidden strengths in the competition.

    • Away from the Oscar beat, the Berlinale continued its quiet progress, with Stephen Frears’ “Chéri” possibly one to watch.

  • Does ‘Frozen River’ have one more trick up its sleeve?

    (from left) Misty Upham and Melissa Leo in Frozen RiverOn Monday’s edition of NPR’s “All Things Considered,” reporter Nate DiMeo spotlights the “Cinderella story” of Courtney Hunt’s “Frozen River,” which turned up a rather surprising original screenplay nomination two-and-a-half weeks ago.

    Originating out of Sundance in early 2008, the film is one of a handful that can be “very high quality, but not very obvious to sell or to market,” says Sony Pictures Classics honcho Michael Barker in the piece.  But, as DiMeo points out, “Frozen River” is “the type of film that Barker and his team have honed awards season after awards season.”

    Interestingly enough, I’ve begun to hear a lot of chatter in favor of Hunt’s film turning up one more surprise: on Oscar night.  While most of us are debating whether Best Picture nominee “Milk” or animated critics favorite “WALL-E” will win in the original screenplay category, there are those who think Hunt could eek out a victory, a show of support for independent filmmaking to be sure.  There is also talk of Kate Winslet’s “assured” victory in the lead actress category not being all that assured at all, and that Melissa Leo has become a difficult choice to argue against.

    Barker “had a plan and an instinct on this,” Hunt says in the DiMeo piece.  “I thought once I got into Sundance and sold the movie, I was a big shot.  Well, it turns out I wasn’t as much of a big shot as I thought I was.”

    Barker notes that “for the longest time, we were the only film that the Academy members had in their hands to watch.”  Screeners of the film went out at the beginning of September, DiMeo reminds, “before it could be buried under a pile of ‘Benjamin Button’ and ‘Dark Knight’ screeners.  Sony Pictures Classics had scheduled the DVD release for right around now to take advantage of a potential nomination.  And now orders are up.”

    The studio’s goal is “for the film to have the longest life possible,” Barker says, “and ‘Frozen River’ is probably a textbook example.”

    Might it also be a textbook example of catching the Oscar frontrunners off guard?  It’s quite possible.

    Also check out Sasha Stone’s interview with Hunt from earlier in the week if you missed it, as well as Liane Hansen’s chat with Leo from November, right around the time of the film’s release.

  • 2/10 Oscarweb Round-up

    Jeffrey Dean Morgan in Watchmen• At least Ron Rosenbaum kind of gets it.  Though he apparently thinks he’s the only one a bit miffed at the redemption angle.  Do some more Googling, Ron. [Slate]

    • Joining the “Reader” bash, Noah Forrest pleads with the Academy not to hand the Oscar to Kate Winslet. [Movie City News]

    • Jeff Wells gets word that Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” could be in theaters by the end of the year. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

    • David Poland scatters “Watchmen” gossip while apparently indicating that Warner Bros. owes him and others a look at the film a month in advance. [The Hot Blog]

    • Patrick Goldstein is big on foreign film contender “The Class.” [The Big Picture]

    • Brits pick the most memorable movie quotes ever. [Daily Telegraph]

    • Sasha Stone talks to Oscar-nominated “Frozen River” scribe Courtney Hunt. [Awards Daily]

    • Thank God Michael Bay didn’t have his way with this year’s Oscar telecast. [Rope of Silicon]

    • Pete Hammond jumps on the “Mickey might win” bandwagon, becomes, like, the 10th person to draw a parallel to last year’s Best Actress race.  He also points to a potential Viola Davis upset in the supporting actress category. [Notes on a Season]

    • David Carr, meanwhile, comments on Rourke’s “whale of a speech” at the BAFTAs.  But he rather insultingly thinks voters would be “picking the speech over the performance.”  Hardly. [The Carpetbagger]

    • Xan Brooks prays for a little spice and surprising variety at this year’s Oscar ceremony. [The Guardian]

  • CONTEST: Win a Blu-ray copy of ‘Frozen River’

    We haven’t had a contest in a while but with Melissa Leo and Courtney Hunt nabbing nominations for “Frozen River” two weeks ago, and with the Blu-ray/DVD release set for tomorrow, it seems a good time to give a copy to one savvy trivia hound.

    Yeah, a trivia question.  I know.  I’m running out of creativity these days.

    Anyway, here’s the query: Melissa Leo is anything but the calculated, subdued character she plays in Hunt’s film.  She’s quite the bubbly type, full of life.  In order to taper some of that for the performance, Hunt suggested that Leo watch the work of what iconic actor in order to tap into something more subtle, but with every bit the pent-up emotion the character needed to exhibit?

    First to answer correctly wins.

    Cover of Frozen River Blu-ray

  • What about Melissa Leo?

    Yesterday, Kris pondered whether Kate Winslet’s Best Actress Oscar is quite the sure thing it appears to be on paper, or whether Meryl Streep can surf in on a tide of veteran goodwill and spoil the Brit’s party yet again.

    I’ve been saying since nomination day that I can’t imagine Winslet losing yet again, least of all for a performance in a Best Picture nominee (the first time she’s had that luxury since her non-starter nomination for “Titanic” in 1997). If she wins the BAFTA on Sunday, as almost everyone suspects she will, her campaign stays comfortably on course; if, however, Streep manages to pull off an upset, I may well change my mind.

    But allow me to play devil’s advocate for a minute. Why has the competition been reduced to two performances that are by no means necessarily the strongest in the lineup? Let’s perform a process of elimination. Streep’s performance has been polarising from the get-go, with the reverberations of Variety’s notably harsh review still being felt in the critical community. (As “Doubt” opens today in the UK, a number of critics find themselves bewildered, with the Guardian describing her work as “beyond absurdity.”)

    Of the competition, Angelina Jolie has drawn even less critical consensus than Streep, so it’s safe to say she’s out of the running. Anne Hathaway looked to be a frontrunner at one point, and barely anyone has a bad word to say about her performance, but judging from the tepid Academy reaction to her divisive film, I can’t help feeling that her ship has sailed. Kate Winslet’s performance has also been widely praised, and it’s clear that a large faction of the Academy appreciates “The Reader” — but it’s still a film with some notable detractors, and not everyone likes the way Harvey Weinstein muscled it into the race.

    And so we arrive at Melissa Leo. In many ways the odd woman out in this year’s star-heavy Best Actress race, she is arguably the one nominee whose performance — and film — have attracted the least criticism from any quarter. Critics have showered superlatives upon Leo’s raw, career-defining performance, with the venerable Roger Ebert singling her out as his favourite of the nominees.

    (more…)

  • Best Original Screenplay: The case for ‘WALL-E’

    I think it was some smart person on Nat Rogers’ most recent podcast who remarked that if you really want to get a picture of what was going on cinematically in any given year, you’d be better off bypassing Oscar’s Best Picture category and heading straight for the Best Original Screenplay nominees – a category that has a far higher tolerance for eccentricity, controversy and the occasional foreign tongue than any other.

    Case in point: 2002. When the top categories were splintered between the respectable but less-than-relevant likes of “Chicago” and “The Pianist,” Original Screenplay afforded voters the luxury of choosing between Pedro Almodovar, Todd Haynes and Alfonso Cuaron. Two years later, the category gave recognition to the otherwise shamefully sidelined “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind,” just as, a decade earlier, “Pulp Fiction” fans sought refuge there from a merciless shower of Gump. As I’ve said before, from “Citizen Kane” to “The Crying Game,” Best Original Screenplay tends to be the connoisseur’s favourite Oscar category.

    And so it is this year, when the writers’ branch really demonstrated admirable ingenuity and adventurousness in their selections, in the face of some otherwise uninspired voting. For me, it’s by far the most exciting of this year’s major Oscar categories, both for the calibre its competition and the unpredictability of its outcome. It’s one category where the Guild award is of little to no use to prognosticators, as only one title (“Milk”) features on both the Oscar and WGA lists.

    Like Kris, I’m placing my money on Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and “WALL-E” emerging triumphant here, and thus becoming the first animated film in Oscar history to win a major category. This morning, meanwhile, I was interested to see that the majority of the Gurus of Gold are thinking the same way. It’s a healthy vote of confidence for a prediction that, let’s face it, would represent a significant leap for Academy voters. Just last year, the Reel Geezers (AMPAS members both) immediately discounted “Ratatouille” from consideration in the category because it was a “cartoon.” How do we know that most of the notoriously conservative Academy voters won’t feel the same way?

    (more…)

  • Will SAG continue the ‘Slumdog’ sweep?

    As I anticipated, “Slumdog Millionaire” walked off with the Producers Guild of America Award last night, confirming its status as the unstoppable underdog-turned-juggernaut of this year’s Oscar race.

    It’s highly significant that Danny Boyle’s film managed to claim this gong, in particular; as Kris pointed out yesterday, of all voting bodies, it’s the PGA that might have had the most reservations about the film. A foreign runaway production from a relatively green producer, it’s not the kind of film they tend to reward — particularly against the box-office heft of a film like “The Dark Knight,” or the industry popularity of “Benjamin Button”’s production team.

    The fact that “Slumdog” overcame such potential obstacles is indicative of the across-the-board affection for this film in the industry; it’s a film that voters love as much as they admire.

    So I’m interested to see how it performs at tonight’s Screen Actors Guild Awards – another ceremony where the film has a number of disadvantages going in, given that it has a largely unknown, untested cast, and is less an actors’ piece than a director’s accomplishment. Technically, it has two shots at glory tonight, but since Dev Patel hasn’t a snowball’s chance of beating Heath Ledger in the Best Supporting Actor race, all its hopes rest on SAG’s top honour, the Best Performance by a Cast award.

    Many pundits are predicting “Slumdog” to go home empty-handed tonight, and it’s easy to see why. “Doubt,” which has the most nominations of any contender, has the kind of capital-A Acting from an esteemed group of thesps that could be catnip to voting actors, while “Milk” (Kris’ own bet) has both a powerhouse star turn and the kind of sterling ensemble work they like to reward.

    But I wonder. Though SAG doesn’t always treat its top prize as a Best Picture equivalent — “Gosford Park” and “Sideways” are examples of films that triumphed principally on the strengths of their casts, despite minimal Oscar momentum – the fact remains that this is essentially SAG’s only chance to reward the most beloved film of the season. While it’s arguably the least “actor-y” film in contention, I suspect that, as when the Simon Beaufoy-penned “The Full Monty” upset here in 1997, the voters are going to let their hearts overrule their actorly instincts.

    (More thoughts, and my SAG predictions, after the cut.)

    (more…)

  • ‘Push’ sweeps at Sundance

    It had become quite clear over the past few days that Lee Daniels’ sophomore feature “Push: Based on the Novel by Sapphire” was one of the few titles raising pulses at a very quiet Sundance Film Festival. The film, a hard-hitting urban tale of an African-American teenager overcoming merciless parental abuse in 1980’s Harlem, has received breathless critical notices across the board, with Variety declaring it “a diamond – clear, bright, but oh so hard.”

    So hardly anyone is surprised that the film cleaned up at yesterday’s Sundance Awards, nabbing both the Grand Jury and Audience Prizes in the U.S. dramatic competition — only the third film ever to achieve that double. It also received a Special Jury Prize for the performance of Mo’Nique as the protagonist’s monstrously neglectful mother.

    Sundance Awards have a spotty record of indicating future success: looking down the list of previous Grand Jury Prize winners, for every “You Can Count on Me” or “Frozen River” that rides its momentum all the way to Oscar night a whole year later, there’s a “Quinceanera” or “Forty Shades of Blue” that pretty much sinks without trace. “Push” certainly sounds like a tough sell for future awards attention, but if the critical championing continues, it’s hard to predict what might be in store.

    One winner we seem increasingly likely to hear more about as the year progresses is Lone Scherfig’s British charmer “An Education,” which inspired a heated bidding contest between specialty studios, and last night landed the Audience Award in the world dramatic competition, as well as a gong for cinematographer John De Borman. (Check out Todd McCarthy’s unabashed rave for the film here – we haven’t seen too many of those lately.)

    Meanwhile, the jury’s choice in the world dramatic section was Chilean class-themed comedy “The Maid,” while directing and screenwriting honours went to Oliver Hirschbiegel’s “Five Minutes of Heaven,” a study of political conflict in 1970’s Northen Ireland headlined by Liam Neeson. After the disaster that was Hirschbiegel’s first English-language effort, “The Invasion,” it’s nice to see the “Downfall” director getting back on track.

    A full list of the (many) feature awards dished out is below the cut. For more details, check out Variety’s report here.

    (more…)

  • After cooling off a bit…

    Michael Shannon in Revolutionary RoadYesterday the Academy displayed just what a fractured organization they are, championing a small film like “Slumdog Millionaire,” for which I applaud them, but snubbing “The Dark Knight,” one of the best reviewed films of the year and a titan at the box office. All day I was asking, ‘How?’  All day I wondered just how out of touch this organization truly is and what a major overhaul is needed.

    Call it ageism if you must, but we I think we need new blood in there.  I have been covering the Academy Awards for more than 20 years and have had my share of disappointments and shocks over that span of time. One would think I’d get used to it.

    I remember the rage when “Ghost” was nominated for Best Picture and when Roberto Begnini won Best Actor. That anger and shock was nothing like I felt yesterday morning at 8:30 Ontario time.

    I could not speak. I closed my office door and quietly raged, trying to make sense of it. Reading the other reactions helped ease the wound (I take it personally you see when my films are snubbed) and tried to see the good in the nominations this year. And as Guy astutely points out, there is some good.

    Melissa Leo in “Frozen River” made the cut, as did Richard Jenkins for “The Visitor.”  Both deserved, both terrific performances. “Wall-E” grabbed a screenplay nod, as well as sound nominations, and “Slumdog Millionaire” did very well indeed, with 10 nods. “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” lead the pack with 13 and Brad Pitt finally got a nomination for Best Actor — long overdue.  Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei made the list for “The Wrestler” and all four major actors from “Doubt” are nominees.

    (more…)

  • Hey, it ain’t ALL bad

    OK, looking at the bigger picture, I’m as mortified as everyone else by this morning’s Academy Award nominations. By playing it safe in numerous areas, AMPAS voters have once more failed their art form … but more surprisingly, they have failed their audience.

    Kris has already touched to some extent on the most glaring injustices of the morning, and I plan to indulge in my own share of ranting later today. But before I get into that, I’d like to channel my inner Bing Crosby and accentuate the positive. Amid the minefield of errors, there were some isolated pleasant surprises and level-headed decisions, even if many of them were on a smaller scale. And these were the best of them:

    “GRAN TORINO” STRIKES OUT: Many were speculating that the latest from the (usually) Oscar-beloved Clint Eastwood could be a spoiler in the top race, with the man himself an ominous threat to actually take the Best Actor gong. But for once, Eastwood’s stealth-release strategy didn’t pay off. Either the film gathered momentum too late, or voters saw through the film’s creaky construction and hammy lead turn. Either way, in passing over Eastwood for the wonderful Richard Jenkins, the Academy made the right call.

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY GETS ORIGINAL: Matching the WGA’s Original Screenplay nominees in only one instance, voters dug deep here and pulled some inspired choices out of the hat. Bypassing the familiar comforts of Woody Allen or the Coen Brothers, they recognised that “Frozen River” owed its jagged, riveting tension to more than just Melissa Leo’s stellar performance, and, most thrillingly, recognised the pitch-black wit and literary sensibility of “In Bruges.” A nod for Mike Leigh’s unconventionally constructed “Happy-Go-Lucky” was more expected, but no less gratifying.

    (more…)

  • How we did

    I’ll let the other contributors’ picks speak for themselves, and they’re more than welcome to pipe in with notes if they like, but here’s my tally.

    Coming off probably my best year yet last year, I didn’t do great.  I only nailed one category 100 percent (Best Film Editing).  There were more 3/5s popping up this year than in years past, but so it goes.  We all hit speed bumps.

    I correctly guessed 73 of the 102 nominees I predicted, which is, what, I don’t know.  74 if you count Winslet, but for the wrong movie (which you shouldn’t…I wouldn’t).  Percentages escape me.

    The somewhat unexpected calls I made were “Slumdog Millionaire” showing up in Best Sound Editing and the “Defiance” nod for Best Original Score.  A lot of people seemed to jump of the Melissa Leo boat recently too, but I knew she was solid.  The acting branch was in love with that performance, and when you have someone like Dustin Hoffman out there pushing your cause, you’re in good shape.

    Also, I had a conversation last night with a sound mixer friend who told me “Wanted” was the best sound job of the year.  And it shows up in both categories.  Go figure.

    Who am I most happy for?  Michael Shannon.  One of the good guys.

    Anyway, those are my stats.  What about yours?