OFF THE CARPET: Indies on the march

Maybe mid-way through the Toronto Film Festival, two things are strikingly clear: Darren Aronofsky has the goods with “The Wrestler” and Danny Boyle’s streak of successful versatility at the helm continues with “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Both films, which enjoy pre-Toronto success at Venice and Telluride respectfully, are also evidence that surprises will happen this time of year.  And with an uncharacteriztically level playing field in Toronto this year, we should be thankful they are getting a fair shake.

One of them is set for distribution, however, while the other is waiting out a buyer.  But will “The Wrestler” find a home and see a release in 2008 or will an awards-heavy distributor pick it up and save it for a rainy day in 2009’s awards season?

Both options are on the table, it’s just a matter of who bites first, and what they bring to the table.

On the horizon, everyone is awaiting their post-Toronto peeks at films like “Australia,” “Revolutionary Road,” “Milk” (landing a trailer this week) and “The Soloist.”  David Fincher’s 20 minutes of footage from “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” may have been caught off guard by over-zealous bloggers in Telluride, but the damage may not have been as considerable as some may have thought.

Speaking of “The Soloist,” chatter is making its way out of the Paramount camp that Robert Downey Jr. is outstanding as LA Times columnist Steve Lopez and hopes are high for a Best Actor nomination.  And as far as “Milk” is concerned, prognosticators may have the wrong idea going in as to which supporting performance has the awards-worthy chops.  More on that at a later date.

But most of the above you probably could have surmised from a close readying of the daily activity here at In Contention.  So what’s news?

Not a lot.  Those benefitting from the Toronto fest seem to be Anne Hathaway, Mickey Rourke and Simon Beaufoy.  Each of them are on an Oscar trajectory.

Meanwhile, heavily anticipated contenders are falling by the wayside in the form of Spike Lee’s “Miracle at St. Anna,” Ed Harris’s “Appaloosa” and Rian Johnson’s “The Brothers Bloom.”  Each of them have their champions, of course, as they should.  But this is that early moment in the season when the real players are separated from the fray, and the cream is slowly rising to the top.

It’s all subjective…as always.  I’m not in love with “Rachel Getting Married,” but critics are tripping over themselves to hold it in the esteem of a unique contribution.  Walk-outs at a Toronto screening of “The Brothers Bloom” have early viewers here in Los Angeles scratching their heads in befuddlement.  “I can understand it not being your thing, but I can’t imagine someone hating it that much” was one paraphrased sentiment I heard this week.

Still to come at the fest are a number of films waiting for either distribution or the opportunity to wow audiences like the trio of standouts so far.  Just this morning, in fact, Steve McQueen’s “Hunger” was unveiled to festival-goers, while Richard Eyre’s “The Other Man” dropped not too far away.

Could Michael Fassbender join Mickey Rourke as one of the early-anointed Best Actor contenders?  Might Laura Linney make a case for her spot in an already crowded lead actress competition?

Rod Lurie’s “Nothing But the Truth” debuts this evening.  Is it going to be a coming out party for Kate Beckinsale and Vera Farmiga, both sensational in one of a very few films tackling the political zeitgeist this year (and successfully at that)?  Will Alan Alda get the surge Lurie and company are hoping for to put him in play as a Best Supporting Actor contender?

Charlie Kaufman’s “Synecdoche, New York” is right around the corner, too, and Steven Soderbergh’s “Che” is in the mix, both films hoping to shake off mixed reactions out of Cannes.  And speaking of shaking of the shadows of the croisette, Fernando Meirelles’s “Blindness” is showing again today in a retooled form that has already impressed a few critics.  Will more join the chorus and give Miramax Films the reason to pull the trigger on a major Oscar campaign, or will the studio be looking to pick something else up?

Lots of questions still simmer as we push through the second half of the festivities.  Before long, “Frost/Nixon” will drop in London, a mystery film (shhh) will drop at AFI and we’ll be into November before we know it.  But for now, the waiting is fun.

But my fingernails are ragged.

No Oscar chart update this week.  I’ll take my own council over the weekend, as the dust settles in Toronto.  Check this space in a week for updated projections.