OK, I held off compiling a set of 2009 Oscar predictions for as long as I could. Actually, I tried to hold off even thinking about them — so long and largely depressing was the 2008 derby that I felt I owed myself a few months of pretending that movies are their own reward. (Not that the artistically desolate spring season is the best time for idealism.)
Year-in-advance predictions are the strict preserve of crazy people. (And we love them for it.) By contrast, in offering up my first predictions a mere 7-8 months before nomination day, I feel only slightly unhinged.
Before you peruse my predix, I should offer the disclaimer that my best guesses may just as easily be my worst. Living a continent away, I can’t approach Kris for ear-to-the-ground expertise, and I often run with notions that are fanciful, to say the least. This time last year, I was predicting 5 nominations for “Happy-Go-Lucky,” including a Best Picture bid. Then again, I walked out of “In Bruges” last April convinced I’d seen a future screenplay nominee. I have my isolated (often very isolated) moments of clarity.
All of which is to say to say that these predictions aren’t to be taken terribly seriously. At this early stage in the game, with so many variables in the equation, why not have a bit of fun and float a few wild-card possibilities? By the time the unknowns become known and the race starts narrowing down, there’s little room to be playful, so I like to get it out of my system now.
A nod for an unknown South African actress in a film still awaiting U.S. distribution? Hell, why not? No nods for “Amelia” and a scant showing for “Shutter Island” and “Invictus?” Well, some of the big guns have to miss. That pretty much sums up my approach this far out.
One impression I did get from foraging through the contender lists and seeking likely candidates (desperately seeking, in some cases … where the hell are the original screenplays this year?) is that this doesn’t look like a vintage year for prime studio Oscar bait. The fact that such small, caveat-laden titles as “Precious” and “Bright Star” are being talked up as major contenders this early in the year suggests to me that we could have another 1996 or 2005 on our hands here, where low-key indie titles are allowed room to rub shoulders in the top categories, rather than just fight for a single slot.
Hence my blind guess that voters will open their hearts to both of this year’s Sundance sensations in the Best Picture category, with the warmth and romanticism of “An Education” perhaps serving as the indie alternative for voters who find “Precious” to be heap strong medicine. Meanwhile, “Bright Star” emerges as my top nominee, an unlikely result for a film whose newbie distributor remains unnamed, but perhaps not as unlikely as the prospect of two female filmmakers making history by landing nods in the Best Director category.
Like I said, it’s all in good fun, so keep that in mind when you read my predictions here. I’m not planning to update them much over the summer, but you can always find them under my name when you click the “About” header at the top of the page.
Comments
32 responses to “Guessing games”
Quite the indie-heavy slate that.
Very much so. Which is a clear indication that glossy studio fare will rule the race.
Best Actress or maybe Supporting (depends): Dakota Fanning as Cheri Currie in “The Runaways”.
May sound out of left field but I’ve read the script and if Dakota brings it like I expect she will then she will most certainly gain critical buzz. How far is anybody’s guess but mark my words, Dakota has a chance to turn in something special.
I’m really hoping Lovely Bones can warrant a larger presence upon release. Please Mr. Jackson, don’t blow it.
The Runaways hasnt even filmed yet…so i’m guessing its going to be released in 2010….but i doubt it gets any awards buzz…just my opinion.
It seems everyone wants to be disapointed, last year we said there were few good movies and were already declaring this year as thin race when Jackson, Scorsesse, and Eastwood are all in the race? good lord, lets have some optimism
You are correct, Roark21. “The Runaways” is very likely going to be a 2010 release, however, that is not official as of today. I suppose I may have jumped the gun on it, in which case it’ll have plenty of time to speak for itself.
Not liking what you’re seeing from Spinotti in Public Enemies, Guy?
I think Green Zone could land Greengrass another best director nom.
Talk about a big year for Damon coming up.
Interesting predictions. I disagree 50%. It bothers me that you believe that both The Lovely Bones and Shutter Island will fail in the big categories. I find it highly unlikely. And I also think it’s curious that you think the Academy will honor “A Prophet” more than Cannes did. That’s why I think your predictions are interesting.
On the other hand I agree that Precious and “An Education” will probably score. Or at least one of them.
But please elaborate on Shutter Island (except if you want to hold your opinion until the page-to-screen article). I mean, the critics weren’t crazy about Aviator and Gangs but the Academy loved both. They always love Marty.
Guy its not your failure that the Academy did not nominate Happy-Go-Lucky, its the Academy’s failure. And I seriously think that the Baftas should be utterly ashamed of themselves for trampling over Mike Leigh’s film.
It was like wait, what is that little movie making waves, a film with mainstream appeal actually supposed to be good and generating quite a lot of awards talk, Slumdog Millionaire? We’ll show em where it all started, the glory of British cinema, its British and we’ll put up such a show celebrating our own, people’ll know.
And in the process they criminally ignored Mike Leigh with 0 nominations for his great film. They were so busy fawning over the new star of British cinema, a movie giving them traction at the oscars, that they completely forgot their own resident master whose last film was so widely celebrated by the baftas. Mike Leigh himself said something to the effect that he was sort of mildly displeased with the lack of attention from the baftas but it is really cheap to latch onto a flavor-of-the-month film which is like a back-pat to British cinema itself over a film which they should have been genuinely proud of. Oscars ignore Mike Leigh, all right, baftas ignore Mike Leigh, shame.
Last year’s Oscars were so absolutely awful, right from the moment it became apparent where they were heading, I hope Guy that some of your more adventurous picks come true. And christ I hope there’s variety this year. The guild awards were so exasperating, the same films over and over and over again, not even good films at that.
By the way, Looking For Eric seems set to become very popular in Europe. I expect a good showing in year end top 10’s and critics polls.
Also I have a feeling that this year’s critics awards are gonna be all sorts of adventurous to make up for last years disappointments.
I don’t see the screenplay nod for “Looking for Eric”. Do Americans even know Cantona? Do they get the jokes about his larger-than-life attitude?
For the other four films I’ve seen, I think your predictions might be correct.
Very interesting list…although, at least to me, it looks more like a wish-list rather than a predix list ;)
I’m not surprised at the lack of love for Eastwood’s and Scorcese’s movie. Last year proved that having Eastwood’s name attached to a project doesn’t automatically put it in the race. And with Scorcese having just won a few years ago, I think the Academy will be less inclined to shower awards to Shutter Island unless it turns out to be an excellent genre piece that rivals The Departed.
Avatar and Lovely Bones are tougher calls…we know nothing of the former (except the fact that FX people are calling it a game-changer…which would mean nothing to me if the movie sucked), and Lovely Bones will probably be the most closely-critiqued movie of the year due to the popularity of the director and the source material. It will need to be a home-run, or else it may go the way of Dreamgirls (good to great reviews, but lacking the excellent reviews a frontrunner “should” garner).
One of the bigger surprises for me were your animation nominees. I think Up is a done-deal, and Ponyo looks like a solid bet due to Miyazaki’s popularity (and the good early-word), but Coraline didn’t seem to have the beloved fanbase that would warrant Academy members going out on a limb for it. I think The Princess and the Frog will grab that final spot, as I think the Academy will use it to sort-of silently support 2-D animation (even though all of Miyazaki’s work is in 2-D). But wouldn’t it be great if animation managed 5 nominees instead of 3? If the slate was 5, then I’d def include Coraline.
“Not liking what you’re seeing from Spinotti in Public Enemies, Guy?”
Anti-digital bias, after all.
I was excited to see you list Paul Schneider for “Bright Star.” I’m hoping this is going to be a breakthrough for him, and the reviews make it sound like the type of scene-stealing role that the Academy loves.
He was so great two years ago in both “Lars and the Real Girl” and “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.”
Sorry Guy, but I think your predictions are more in line with the Independent Spirit Awards then the Academy Awards
Does “Disgrace” even have a US release, Guy? I predicted Malkovich in my year-in-advance back in Feb but not so sure now it’ll even be gtting a release
AmericanRequiem: What makes you think I’m not being optimistic? I’d be pretty thrilled (not to mention, flat-out astonished) if this turned out to be the lineup.
Mr Gittes: What Kris said in comment 13.
Jim: I think I need to clarify something about “Shutter Island.” I’m not predicting it won’t be a successful film, but I think it might be too genre-oriented for the Academy’s liking, particularly now that the pressure to honor Scorsese is off.
When was the last time a filmmaker scored with the Academy four times in a row? He has to miss sometime; I’m guessing this will be that time. (There’s also a pattern recently of directors missing out with their first post-Oscar film.)
Red_Wine: There are so many reasons the BAFTAs should be ashamed of themselves, I don’t have time to list them.
Chris: I’m not really sold on the “Looking for Eric” nom either, but I see it as a placeholder. Where the hell are the original screenplay contenders? (And hey, “Bend It Like Beckham” came very close to a nod years before Beckham went Stateside, so who knows?)
Glenn: Yeah, “Disgrace” is my wildest of wild cards. It’s fun to go crazy now and then.
Does an “anti-digital” bias exist among many film critics?? Especially more “old school” critics??
Since I don’t travel in such circles, I’m just curious. If so, would such a bias keep them from full appreciating a film shot in this format??
I agree on the genre-oriented thing and the “he has finally won” thing. On the other hand, it will be 3 years after his last nomination which is a relatively long time. We’ll see…
I don’t think a bias necessarily exists among film critics, but it plainly does among the Academy’s cinematography branch. Last year’s noms were something of a breakthrough, but I suspect that was only because “Benjamin Button” was so darned pretty and “Slumdog” was, well, a weird phenomenon.
I totally feel the Amelia shutout, but I think Avatar and Lovely Bones will be much bigger showers. I also really think a Johnny Depp nomination for Public Enemies is inevitable, whether or not the film gets any other love.
At this point it doesn’t matter if the film is good or not, The Lovely Bones, Shutter Island and Invictus are going to be showered in awards season trust me… I just pray we have SOME suspense this year with Best picture (remember how up in the air ’06 and ’98 were?) because the SLUMDOG juggernaut(The worst Best Picture winner alongside A Beautiful Mind and Driving Miss Daisy) was so depressing. How the hell does SM have a better ensemble than Rachel Getting Married or Synecodoche or Milk? I am so cynical about the Oscars now, but that won’t keep me from guessing :) I just really, really want Lovely Bones to score. I LOVE the actors, generally enjoy Peter Jackson and have very high hopes for the Brian Eno score. I especially hope Ronan wins. Even over Meryl getting a 3rd win… And I’m a Merylholic. It would just be cool to see a younger actress take the Lead Oscar… Just hoping there is some suspense because when the winners are so clear-cut the fun evaporates.
What’s the deal with Disgrace? I remember seeing a trailer for it in theaters over a year aga with a probable release date set for last june. Now it got pushed all the way to last week so I should see it soon but when does it get a US release?
I seriously hope henceforward, whenever Meryl Streep is nominated, she actually deserves it. Even I thought that the woman couldn’t have enough Oscars and nominations, but then I saw Doubt and felt really disgusted that she was nominated.
I think Ben Stiller and Greta Gerwig could be surprise contenders for Greenberg.
I wonder if Bradley Cooper can get supporting nod for something from a movie called Little Miss Hangover.
Guy, that’s what I’ve been saying about “Shutter Island” since day one. Not even Eastwood has that track record.
Maybe it’s because I’m the sole Aussie here but it’s telling (and gratifying) that Samson and Delilah made it on to your foreign film picks.
I can’t remember the last time an Australian film picked up enough buzz to land a nomination. Anyone care to enlighten me on said film?
Kevin: Rest assured, you’re not the only Aussie here — Glenn, for one, is keeping you company.
Australia has never landed a nomination in the category — indeed, I think they’ve only submitted a film on a handful of occasions. The most high-profile submission I can recall is “Ten Canoes,” but it didn’t make the shortlist.
There’s no guarantee they’ll submit “S&D” this year, but given the Cannes buzz and assuming it meets the language requirements (Glenn, can you offer any insight there?), they’d be fools not to.
My only complaints? Nine in Best Picture with no director nomination, no screenplay nomination and only 1 acting nomination? Wouldn’t that be a bit unprecedented? And there will very likely be 5 animation nominees this year. Beyond that… looks possible, though not that likely obviously… in a year like this, there are so many options that nothing is really likely. LOVE the Bridges in lead actor prediction though, also making it myself.
“Nine in Best Picture with no director nomination, no screenplay nomination and only 1 acting nomination? Wouldn’t that be a bit unprecedented?”
Not at all. In recent years alone, “A Few Good Men,” “The Fugitive,” “Elizabeth” and “Moulin Rouge!” all managed Best Picture nominations without accompanying Best Director and Screenplay nods. Hell, “The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers” didn’t even have an accompanying acting nod.