Onward. I bet Fox Searchlight wants this phase two to go by as fast as possible.
Best Picture: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Actor: Sean Penn, “Milk”
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Original Screenplay: “WALL-E”
Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Cinematography: “The Dark Knight”
Best Costume Design: “The Duchess”
Best Film Editing: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Music (Original Score): “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Music (Original Song): “WALL-E”
Best Sound Editing: “WALL-E”
Best Sound Mixing: “WALL-E”
Best Visual Effects: “The Cuious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Animated Feature Film: “WALL-E”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Waltz with Bashir”
Best Documentary (Feature): “Man on Wire”
Best Documentary (Short Subject): “The Witness — From the Balcony of Room 306”
Best Short FIlm (Animated): “Presto”
Best Short Film (Live Action): “New Boy”
Tally:
“Slumdog Millionaire” — 5
“WALL-E” — 5
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” — 3
“The Dark Knight” — 2
“Defiance” — 1
“The Duchess” — 1
“The Reader” — 1
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona” — 1
(Those are all probably dead wrong, but eh, we’ll see how the season develops from here.)
Comments
23 responses to “January winner predictions”
You think they would overlook the groundbreaking work of Wally for DK?
Defiance didn’t get a nomination for best cinematography. It was, however, gorgeous.
I think Mickey is gonna catch Sean
Sorry guys, typo on my part. I went off thinking Defiance got that cine nod.
You are dead right on Film ,Director & Adapted Screenplay. Slumdog has it in the bag for all 3. Also the ladies are also packed up, they wouldn’t dare ignore Winslet any further and obviously everyone loves Cruz.
I’m still hoping (against hope) for a David Fincher party.
After today, I have a nagging feeling Downey Jr. will beat out Ledger for Best Supporting Actor.
Heh, there’s a part of me that kind of wants to see someone besides Ledger win just for the ensuing clusterfuck, but it’s a very small part.
Anyway, the only categories that I’m convinced are absolute locks at this point are Cruz (now that Winslett’s out of the way), Ledger, and Wall-E for animated film.
Your tally is incorrent. Check again :)
WALL-E for original screenplay is wishful thinking. It aint gonna happen, especially not with a Best Picture nominee in the mix (Milk).
You’re right about almost everything, which is sad because that’s a dismally safe list. But I don’t think it’s quite safe enough. There’s no way Dark Knight wins Cinematography. Sorry. Keep regressing. My money’s on The Reader so it has something other than Actress. Otherwise Button and Slumdog are still more likely there.
If Ledger does lose I’ll just be ashamed. Totally and completely let down. I may not even comment on my Facebook just because I won’t want anyone to know I follow the Oscars. But I think there’s about a 60% shot he will get snubbed at this point. Rourke, on the other hand, is on the way up, and may stand at about 55% himself. And I somehow suspect Cruz will eventually, narrowly get picked off, but I haven’t yet determined whether it’s by Viola Davis, Amy Adams or Marisa Tomei.
N8 – I actually disagree. I know why you think that Milk is inevitable for Screenplay and you could be right. But a lot of times the Acadamy plays around with one of the two screenplay categories because it’s the biggest award they feel comfortable giving to a popular genre movie. The other screenplay award goes to the Best Picture winner. So in this case that points to Slumdog and WALL-E.
N8: Wishful thinking? Have you read my coverage?
The more I think about it, the less likely Winslet seems to me…but then again she could be the consolation win for The Reader (and for how much the Academy has screwed her over), but I can’t get Melissa Leo out of my head.
Winslet wins it walking away I think. It’ll be for Road too.
Yeah, I also think Winslet has it in the bag … unfortunately.
Amazing what a weak slate of Best Actress nominees they’ve ended up with, considering how rich the field of contenders looked earlier in the season.
Melissa Leo’s performance stands head and shoulders above the other four.
So is this Reader-train just getting started and unstoppable by the end of next month?
Best Picture: “Slumdog Millionaireâ€
Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaireâ€
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, “The Readerâ€
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knightâ€
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaireâ€
Best Original Screenplay: “WALL-E”
Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Cinematography: “The Dark Knightâ€
Best Costume Design: “The Duchessâ€
Best Film Editing: “The Dark Knightâ€
Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttonâ€
Best Music (Original Score): “The Curious Case of Benjamin Buttonâ€
Best Music (Original Song): “Jai Ho” “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Sound Editing: “The Dark Knightâ€
Best Sound Mixing: “WALL-Eâ€
Best Visual Effects: “The Cuious Case of Benjamin Buttonâ€
Best Animated Feature Film: “WALL-Eâ€
Best Foreign Language Film: “Waltz with Bashirâ€
Slumdog, Button, and Dark Knight each get 4. It’s such a balanced field, really.
and Doubt’s not walking away empty handed, i could see Screenplay going it’s way too.
I definitely don’t see Davis winning Supporting Actress. Cruz’s eventual BAFTA win will give the much-needed last minute momentum.
Just like the DGA, WGA, PGA gave the dark knight it’ds much-needed last minute momentum? I’m sorry, logic is out the window at this point, i’m acting off of hunches.
[…] now, I side with Kris in predicting a scant three trophies for “Button,” in the Art Direction, Makeup and […]