In Contention

FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Valentine’s Day’ love fest

Benicio Del Toro in The Wolfman*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

Sorry this is late folks. I can remember all the words to “Teenage Dirtbag” by Wheatus without hearing it for five years but I can’t seem to remember to write this column every week.

Anyway, it’s a big weekend. President’s Day means it’s a four-day tally and Sunday being Valentine’s Day means certain titles have a leg up. One such title is “Valentine’s Day,” starring at least one person you, your sister, your mother and your grandmother really like. The 75-year-old man who directed “Pretty Woman” is putting it all together and there’s really no stopping it.

“50 First Dates” managed $55 million from the four-day weekend in 2004 and I’d say only the overachieving debut of “Dear John” will keep this lower. Give it $50 million for four days and $43 million for the three days.

“The Wolfman” once seemed like a hot commodity. Mark Romanek was an inspired directing choice and Benicio Del Toro’s casting saved the production millions in makeup costs. But Romanek got replaced with Joe Johnston, the release date got delayed a couple times and the whole thing now looks like a giant turd. Still, enough people may be interested in some cheap thrills to get it to $27 million for the three days and $33 million for the long weekend.

“Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief,” while giving marquee letter changers nightmares, is following a long line of children’s fantasy films opening on this weekend. “Bridge to Terabithia” and “The Spiderwick Chronicles” both earned $25 million+ for the four days so Chris Columbus should manage the same. That’s roughly half a million for each letter in its title.

I would expect “Dear John” to fall 35% during the regular three-day weekend, while “Avatar” can slip as low as 10% or even gain. Who knows with that thing?

What are you guys seeing? If you live in New York, New Jersey or Connecticut, you should watch a cool movie called “Luke and Brie Are on a First Date” on Saturday night at 11 on WNET channel 13. Your valentine will thank you.

Comments

14 responses to “FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Valentine’s Day’ love fest”

  1. Adam Smith Avatar

    Shameless self-promotion ftw :P

  2. James D. Avatar

    Chad still hasn’t commented on my Luke and Brie review. For shame.

    Alas, I might go see Crazy Heart this weekend. A knockoff of the Wrestler can’t be bad, right?

  3. Jonathan Spuij Avatar

    LOL, even Percy Jackson is on course to triumph over Wolfman.

  4. Michael Avatar
    Michael

    The Wolfman sucked but not as bad as I thought it would. What a missed opportunity for something that could have been incredible. Oh well. I am not going back to the theater this weekend b/c all that they have to offer is Valentines Day and Percy Jackson which I have no interest to see either.

    Oh and I am excited to learn that Luke and Brie are on a First Date is available on demand on Amazon – I don’t know if you get any money from that but I don’t know how else I will be able to see it. I might just have to give that a chance to see for myself whether mr. hartigan has any directorial chops.

  5. Al Avatar
    Al

    you also watch the channel 13s classic, indie, and short? cool.

  6. Tedums_Precious Avatar

    I think, at some point or another, we all have randomly remembered the lyrics to “Teenage Dirtbag” without ever actually hearing it…

  7. Joel Avatar

    I saw “The Wolfman” yesterday and kind of liked it. About to head to see “Percy Jackson and the Rest of the Title.” Monday will be “Valentine’s Day.”

  8. movieman Avatar
    movieman

    “Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief” is yet another success (if a small one) for the wildly underrated Chris Columbus. “Valentine’s Day” is a teensy bit of fluff: neither awful nor very good. I can’t say I enjoyed it, but I didn’t hate it either. “The Wolfman” is a shameless rehash of the same old, same old.

  9. Guy Lodge Avatar
    Guy Lodge

    “…and Benicio Del Toro’s casting saved the production millions in makeup costs.”

    You just made me laugh out loud like a complete idiot in the middle of the Berlinale press centre. Thanks!

  10. m1 Avatar
    m1

    “…Benicio Del Toro’s casting saved the production millions in makeup costs.”

    You are SO mean! Anyway, I wish Up in the Air would make it into the top 10.

  11. Speaking English Avatar
    Speaking English

    Saw “The Last Station” with my mother, which I liked. A much better Valentine’s Day movie than anything else in theaters right now, that’s for sure.

  12. Jonathan Spuij Avatar

    Up In the Air would be my Valentine movie of choice, were it not me and my Valentine already saw it together.

  13. Charlie Avatar
    Charlie

    OT, others may have asked this but I think I should:

    Guy, was Shutter Island a hit or a miss at Berlinale?

  14. movieman Avatar
    movieman

    I saw “Valentine’s Day.” HOLY. SHIT. Destined to be the year’s worst movie.