Coming down to the wire, the race for Best Directing remains a very close one. Earlier in the year the prevailing wisdom was that a split could be in the cards, with the Oscar-bait frontrunner more likely to win Best Picture and the zeitgeisty competition likely to see its talented helmer finally noticed.
Then things changed a bit, with the zeitgeisty choice pulling ahead as a Best Picture possibility, which left supporters feeling even more strongly that its director would find himself in the winner’s circle. At the end of the season, we’re back to that original thought process in some quarters, while in others, the anticipation of Oscar bait going hand-in-hand is taking hold.
The nominees are:
“Black Swan” (Darren Aronofsky)
“The Fighter” (David O. Russell)
“The King’s Speech” (Tom Hooper)
“The Social Network” (David Fincher)
“True Grit” (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
The absence of Christopher Nolan was no doubt the shock of nomination morning, leaving little doubt that “Inception” would not have been one of five Best Picture nominees. Maybe these would be our five, maybe not, but regardless, it’s a two-horse race in this field, no doubt about it.
Unfortunately, it’s entirely likely that the most deserving candidate is bringing up the rear. Darren Aronofsky‘s vision for “Black Swan,” derided as camp by some, hailed as masterful by others, is one of his crowning achievements to date. The intricacy of its psychological exploration can be felt in every nook and cranny of the production, from a genre-bending screenplay to crisp and detailed editing to elaborate sound design. When all of a film’s elements line up toward a singular vision like this, the credit can certainly be placed at the feet of the director. Aronofsky represents a youthful new breed of filmmaker, and he’s cut from — forgive me if you disagree — the same cloth as Martin Scorsese. He will one day get his due recognition, but I fear he’ll have to prove his longevity first.
There is a lot of love within the Academy for “The Fighter,” and I know for a fact there will be plenty of votes going David O. Russell‘s way. They will ultimately serve to merely pull votes from the frontrunners, but nevertheless, Russell’s is one of the great stories of the season. Paramount Pictures found a nice flow with its campaigning, mentioning in advertising for his work “the comeback story of the year,” a clever double-meaning given the film’s narrative and Russell’s own checkered past with the industry. And his praise has been valid, because while the film isn’t his best (that would still be “Three Kings”), it is a familiar story handled in a vibrant and unique way. He also pulled a hell of an ensemble performance out of his cast, which is no simple feat, but he shouldn’t get his hopes up. Welcome back, David.
If you’re predicting “The King’s Speech” to triumph in the Best Picture category, then you should not feel nervous at all about predicting Tom Hooper here. The simple fact is that splits tend to occur in close years (1998, 2000, 2002), and this year doesn’t appear to be a close one, by most accounts. His direction has ironically been criticized as everything from anonymous to overt in this loud season. Admittedly, it’s the least impressive of the nominees in the field, but it is still a fine piece of work and this is a valid bit of recognition. My sense is that the Oscar is his, as voters will simply chalk their favorite film up in this category, as I think they will a few others. But again, it’s a tight race. Things could easily go in another direction by the end of the evening.
That other direction, as alluded to at the top, would be David Fincher for wonderful work on “The Social Network” that has unfortunately been put up on a pedestal of hyperbole all season long. Good on him for keeping busy rather than getting too sucked into the awards process, but then again, glad-handing is what it takes to win Oscars. I prefer a Fincher who isn’t good at “the game” rather than a Fincher cravenly chasing recognition, though, and he is very much the former. As for the actual work, it’s a near-perfect assemblage, helped along by an incredibly tight screenplay, of course. He gave the film an identity and flavor with his various choices and he got a bevy of delightful performances from his cast. But a split scenario is difficult to forecast, so be brave if you wish.
Finally, there is the surprise nominee of the lot (though surprising just by a hair). Joel and Ethan Coen brought the western genre back to vibrant life with their re-adaptation of “True Grit,” and hell, they should win an award for that feat alone. Clearly the film was an Academy favorite, sucking up 10 nominations across the board. And while many of the brothers’ tendencies can be found throughout, it’s also an interesting stylistic departure in some ways. It would be a delightful surprise but likely they’re just catching their Academy stride as of late and look to be perennial fixtures on the slate after winning the gold three years ago. Still, who wouldn’t want to sing their praises for this accomplishment? They kept a vital piece of Americana alive. It can’t be overstated.
Will win: “The King’s Speech” (Tom Hooper)
Could win: “The Social Network” (David Fincher)
Should win: “Black Swan” (Darren Aronofsky)
Should have been here: “Another Year” (Mike Leigh)
Check out my current rankings for this race at its dedicated Contenders page here.
What do you think deserves to win the award for Best Directing? Have your say in today’s sidebar poll!
[Photos: Fox Searchlight Pictures, The Weinstein Company]
Comments
53 responses to “OSCAR GUIDE: Best Directing”
i`m one of the biggest fans of TKS,but i don`t want Hooper to win best director,Aronofsky deserves it way more than the others IMHO.
Will win: Fincher
Could win: Hooper
Should win: I keep flipping between Russell and Aronofsky, so I’m allowing myself a tie.
Should be here: Claire Denis, damn it.
Will win: Tom Hooper
Should win: David Fincher
Should have been nominated: Christopher Nolan. Whose leg does he have to hump to get a dr… I mean Oscar nomination?
The Social Network Will win because of Its Destiny
Same thoughts as Kris on everything except “should have been here” since I’ve sadly yet to see “Another Year.” It’s cliché, I know, but I’d nominate Nolan for “Inception”
Will Win: David Fincher
Should Win: David Fincher, but Darren as well
Should Have Been Nominated: Christopher Nolan
I think I’ll be “brave” here and go for Fincher. I could very well be wrong, but I just can’t see Hooper winning. Then again, maybe it’s wishful thinking and not wanting the least impressive direction in the field to win. If Nolan were here rather than Hooper, I honestly would be fine with any winner.
Will win: David Fincher.
Could win: Tom Hooper.
Should win: David Fincher, David O. Russell.
Should have been here: Christopher Nolan, Danny Boyle (now I forgive him for Slumdog), Derek Cianfrance.
About the Coens…
“Still, who wouldn’t want to sing their praises for this accomplishment?”
I wouldn’t. I mean, in my opinion it’s not a bad film, sure. It’s got great technical and artistic merits and some nice acting, but to me the movie just sinks in replays. It takes forever to get where it wants to go and the climax lacked intensity. The final scenes with Cogburn and Mattie riding away are terrific, though, and they rescued the film for me.
I think they were far, far more deserving for A Serious Man.
“I think they were far, far more deserving for A Serious Man.”
Well, on this we agree.
Win win: Tom Hooper
Could win: David Fincher (5% chance)
Should win: Tom Hooper
Should have been there: Christopher Nolan
The BP winner should be the BD too IMO, like Ang Lee and Brokeback Mountain, Ridley Scott and Gladiator, both times should have been the two wins instead of one.
“I prefer a Fincher who isn’t good at ‘the game’…”
Pun intended?
Should have been there: Dean Deblois & Chris Sanders. They made the best movie the studio has ever had, turned around Dreamwork’s reputation for merely making movies full of pop culture jokes, and made a thoroughly unoriginal storyline into something exciting, suspenseful, and beautiful.
‘A Serious Man’ is my favorite Coen Bros. film; and the only one other than ‘Fargo’ that I’d nominate for BP in their year.
Also should have been there: Edgar Wright, for style on every level, and Oliver Assayes, because he managed to pull “Carlos” off.
I echo Jacob S.’s comment of Dean Deblois & Chris Sanders, … but I didn’t want to bring it up because the Academy isn’t ready yet to fully embrace animation outside of its own category – let alone to celebrate something not made by Pixar. Should have been here, but it wasn’t happening no matter what.
I’d think the system used by the best foreign language category could be used far better in categories like these – bring animators, documentalists, or action film directors to the mix, even if it’s just one per year, something to spice things up significantly. It’d also increase a whole lot the chances for outsider movies to score a nod there without being a BP contender.
Since you converse with ampas folk, are you getting a lot of support for Hooper in convos? I know the awards daily analyses can seem like a bit much, but Stone was persuasive that splits are risky. There are models: on Oscar Poker, they raised Nichols.Several splits involve critical darlings with direction. And Brokeback Mountain and Saving Private Ryan won NYFCC and LAFCA. Pianist got National Society.Traffic won NYFCC. But with Ryan and Brokeback were bets for Pic too. It feels like the word from voters is helpful here.
Will win: Fincher (I’d rather be wrong than predict Hooper)
Could win: Hooper
Should win: Aronofsky (the coolest thing about the Oscar nominations was him getting his 1st)
Should have been here: SCORSESE! (also Nolan and Gaspar Noe)
Will win: David Fincher
Could Win: Tom Hooper
Should Win: Darren Aronofsky
Should have been here: Martin Scorsese
Zachary, Nolan might need an Oscar project. Anne’s phrase soft lon down the middle is interesting. Box office, TKS is 4. Metascores, 4. 6 or 7 with year lists according to MovieCityNews and They Shoot Pictures.
No, N8, but I wish it was. Nice catch.
DarkLayers: Hearing Hooper and Fincher. It really is close.
Will not win: Tom Hooper
Will win: David Fincher
Could win: Tom Hooper
Should win: Darren Aronofsky
Should have been here: Roman Polanski
Should have been eligible: Olivier Assayas
What a line-up this is if you think about it. Even though I don’t find the films they are nominated for to necessarily be their best work, it’s still such a line-up of directors. You’ve got the directors of Requiem for a Dream, Three Kings, Fight Club and No Country for Old Men in that line-up, to name a few. The only thing that would’ve made it more impressive would’ve been if the director of Memento had also made it, then it quite literally would’ve been one of the most astounding line-ups the Oscars could ever come up with in terms of nominating the most talented guys. That would’ve been the equivalent of a Coppola, Spielberg, Scorsese, Ashby, Kubrick line-up in the 70s or something.
But even if Hooper is the odd one out, he’s still certainly someone to keep an eye on in the future. Maybe some day he’ll really be up there with those guys too.
Will and should win: Tom Hooper (but only because this category is VERY weak this year – the best directors of the year: Nolan, Polanski, Boyle, Mike Leigh aren’t nominated)
will: fincher(going down with the ship)
could:hooper(id watch a musical les mis by him..)
should: aronofsky(pursent and most realized vison)
should have been here: scorsesse(well realize it in about 20 years)
Am I missing something here… “Best Directing?” Putting the film before the director? Confused.
Graysmith: Yeah, 70s lineups were amazing…
74: Coppola, Cassavetes, Fosse, Polanski, Truffaut
75: Forman, Altman, Fellini, Lumet, Kubrick
Those were the days.
Average Joe: “Will win: Fincher (I’d rather be wrong than predict Hooper)”
My sentiments exactly. I could understand the Hooper argument when it came to the DGAs, where they don’t have a Best Picture category and so a lot of the members are voting for their favourite film instead of the best-directed film. But here, they do have a Best Picture category. Do they really believe Hooper is the best director of the year? I refuse to believe your cynicism in the majority of the voters, Kris. Otherwise, I’d be an ass for following the awards race so closely when it will elicit so much disappointment in the end, especially in such a strong year, and particularly in this category (with the exception of Hooper).
Will win: ?
Could win: “The Social Network” (David Fincher) & “The King’s Speech” (Tom Hooper)
Should win: “The Social Network” (David Fincher)
Should have been year: The French triumvirate of Gasper Noe, Jacques Audiard & Olivier Assayas.
All three great auteurs turned the three best directing achievements and the three best films of the year. Bravo!
I must add I am entirely grateful to the director’s branch for not nominating Christopher Nolan. Great, brave and brilliant call.
Will win: David Fincher
Could win: Tom Hooper
Should win: David Fincher
Should have been here: Christopher Nolan
English: The category is Achievement in Directing and, indeed, via the literature, is given to the film. It’s not like acting prizes, which are given to the person nominated. Basically it translates to “such and such is the best directed film of the year,” not “so and so is the best director of the year.”
Odd, I know, but like last year, just following the verbiage.
Oh, yuck. I don’t like that.
English: It’s always been that way — listen out for the wording when they present the award. I’d imagine it stems from the old studio system days, when many Hollywood films were more the creative property of their producers than their directors.
According to IMDb, the category was only changed to “Best Achievement in Directing” in 2004.
Well, it’s IMDb. I’d trust the source:
http://awardsdatabase.oscars.org/ampas_awards/DisplayMain.jsp?curTime=1298614739634
Why should Fincher win and NOT Aronofsky? It’s clear that his fans think he should win because they themselves want him to win. Realistically though, the Oscar should go to Aronofsky.
Will win: Fincher
Could win: Hooper (I basically think this is a coin toss)
Should win: Coens
Should have been here: Matt Reeves, Mike Leigh, Roman Polanski, Lisa Cholodenko
Also, while on nomination morning I assumed Inception would have missed with five slots, after the WGA and ASC wins I’m kinda wondering if it would have gotten the fifth slot and Black Swan would have been a lone director choice. The editing snub is really the only thing that makes me question if it would have been in. Because I could easily see it as the action heavy blockbuster that hits the directing precursors and gets a BP nom, but is perhaps rejected as too populist by the director’s branch (along the lines of The Two Towers and The Fugitive).
Then again we will never know what would have been the nominees with five slots, and I feel you could probably make a case for all of them except perhaps Winter’s Bone.
Toy Story 3 is a stretch.
I don’t think it is such a stretch given that it is the finale in a beloved franchise, the biggest hit of the year, and one of the best reviewed movies of the year.
Particularly if they never went to the ten nominee format, because my guess is Up wouldn’t have gotten in and there would still be claims that Pixar is overdue for a BP nom.
Best Accomplishment in Directorializing.
I thought they did that to fix the problem that two people couldn’t be nominated for directing?
Your link isn’t working.
Tom Hooper is the Sandra Bullock of this year (yes, really):
a big chance of winning, lots of simpathy (though, in his case, is simpathy for the film) and yet, thoughout the season, no one, and I mean NO ONE, provided any reason as to why we should think she delivered the best performance of the year. Likewise, the only argument for Hooper to win (if any) is “we like the film” and “Fincher, Sorkin, Zuckerberg, etc, are all bastards”.
Hm, works for me. Try this and just go to the Directing drop-down:
http://awardsdatabase.oscars.org/ampas_awards/BasicSearchInput.jsp
Should’ve Been Here: Tyler Perry “For Colored Girls”
Sike
Who Should Win Is Anyone But The Coens and Hooper.
This has been amply discussed, but Nathaniel Rodgers brought up again how splits are often surprises, not anticipated at Film Experience.
*or a contributer to that blog brought that stuff up
CHRISTOPHER NOLAN!!!!
Count me as one of those who hated Black Swan and if Aronofsky keeps making movies like this one, I will stop going to his films. I wish Nolan had been nominated instead of him.
Daveylow,
What would make you think he’s not going to keep making movies like Black Swan? He’s been making them since he started.