I nearly forgot tomorrow brings the DGA awards. I thought they were next weekend. Anyway, I guess this can be your place to offer up predictions. I’ll say this, though. I don’t think David Fincher has this in the bag. At all. Ballots were due in today, by the way, which means the Oscar nominations could have an impact. Maybe last minute voters want to spring for Christopher Nolan after he was unceremoniously snubbed by the Academy?
Fincher’s dominance in the critics awards circuit is unmistakable. But now you’re talking about 10,000 people rather than a 30-person media organization (and, in most cases, much smaller than that). “Inception” is a populist film, but so, too, is “The King’s Speech.” And I think I’m just brazen enough to predict Tom Hooper to win.
Yep, I am. I think Darren Aronofsky deserves it above all comers, but that’s unlikely. And Fincher would be my second pick. He could well win, and “The Fighter” could take the SAG ensemble prize, blowing the race wide open (for some). But no, I’m going to put my chips on a sweep for “The King’s Speech” that started with PGA, will continue tomorrow night and keep going through Sunday with an ensemble win. What about you?
[Photo: Fox Searchlight Pictures]
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85 responses to “Predict the DGA winner”
I’ll go with the safe-ish bet and say David Fincher. I can’t really say that all the previous acclaim has been for nothing.
Tom Hooper as a dark horse… maybe, but dunno. I don’t think it’s his time yet, especially against Fincher, Nolan and the Coens. If it happens I’d still expect a different outcome at the Oscars.
Kris, hypothetically speaking, if Nolan ends up winning the DGA would you say Inception is back in the Top 5 regardless the snub? It’d immensely hurt The Social Network’s chances anyways.
I would LOVE for Black Swan to prevail here. Never gonna happen, but imagine a four-way race we could end up having. A month ago it was Social Network vs. The Fighter, then back to Social Network vs. King’s Speech, then after the nominations someone is making it into King’s Speech vs. Social Network vs. True Grit.
Black Swan is my favorite film of the year (having seen all the 10 nominees), and it’s too absurd to ever win, but imagine the DGA going for Black Swan and SAG going for The Fighter… ALL bets would be off.
People have been saying King’s Speech and Social Network for months. But that was before Black Swan turned into a 100 million dollar baby – and before True Grit became the biggest western of all time. The Academy (and the BAFTA) are the only to vote after these two films became phenomenas. Does it change anything?
Probably not – but a few years ago, all 5 films seem to be able to win on Oscar night. Little Miss Sunshine had the PGA, The Queen had the British vote, Departed had Scorsese, Babel had the Globe – and Letters from Iwo Jima was the last-minute revelation from Eastwood (which had the Foreign Language Globe). Afterwards everyone was saying “OF COURSE Departed won”. But up to the show everyone were split on the predictions. There were reasons why all of the films could win – and why all of them could lose. Even the 6th and 7th placed films, United 93 and Dreamgirls, would have been plausible winner predictions, had there been 7 nominees. In fact, wow, what a year: Pan’s Labyrinth, Lives of Others, Apocalypto, Children of Men, Little Children (to name a few others).
I hope for some craziness with these two guilds. Go, Black Swan! (in my dreams…)
If Tom Hooper wins, it may be the end of the world as we know it.
Fincher has it in the bag.
I think Fincher is going to win. Mind you, the DGA have a tendency of going with nominees that have some kind of name recognition. ‘The King’s Speech’ is very popular, but nobody seems to really credit Hooper for its success.
I expect Fincher to win DGA (I can’t imagine ANY of the other nominees taking it) and “The Fighter” ensemble to take SAG (with only one of the supporting players winning his/her individual category; I can see the potential for either “TSN” or “TKS” to take ensemble, though), which will REALLY make people crazy…
When David Fincher and TSN won the Golden Globes, I had a feeling it was the beginning of the end for them. I don’t know why, but I got this feeling the wind has changed and is now blowing towards «The King’s Speech». I would go with predicting Tom Hooper , but I’ll be glad to see Darren Aranofsky win, because frankly, Black Swan is a directing ”chef-d’oeuvre”.
I don’t think he’s that safe, but I am predicting David Fincher.
Fincher in a cakewalk.
Fincher. His time could be now. Curious Case of Benjamin Button probably got him 2nd place. I think a lot of directors will want to acknowledge him. But not sure, at all.
A little off topic, but is there an Oscar Talk this week?
Not with the Tuesday episode, no.
That is a depressing scenario you pose. And I sincerely hope you’re right. I’m still thinking Fincher. Does David O. Russell have any chance in hell?
Whoops. I meant to write “I sincerely hope you’re wrong.” That cannot be a Freudian slip. I could not want anything less.
I feel like this is a year where – in plenty of races – the possibility of upsets is everywhere.
That has simply not been the case in previous years. However, I think the favorites will win-out in the end, anyway.
Still, it’s been a long, but interesting season, so far.
Can’t imagine the DGA not embracing Fincher given his very personal momentum — versus the more general love for TKS.
Hell, even with the utmost “John Adams” goodwill, even if this is the last hurrah for TSN before the tide changes, even if Scott Rudin throws phones at every DGA member, surely this is the one stop at award tour that The Social Network and MVP Fincher can’t lose.
It would amazing if Nolan win, as a nice middle finger to the academy, I wonder how humiliating that would be…. Anyway I think fincher will win, if hooper wins then that would be a sad day
im hoping fincher, but if they want to make him wait then so be it, we all know he has plenty of great films to come, as does aronofsky and nolan. I think we know they have great years ahead of them. This could be hoopers only chance and well i dont really know where to start on o’russel
since Tuesday what I’ve heard across the board from members is that it’s Nolan, but so many ballots may have already been in that a surge may not help.
I have a hard time saying Fincher because so much of what I’ve heard this year about SN from the industry has been pretty much the same, “it’s really good, a solid movie, but I don’t see what the excessive critical hysteria and fuss is about.” To which I usually reply, “it’s like Sideways, a movie about critics, or their particular little world/bubble, of course they are going berserk about it.”
So I think the safe bet is Hooper for The King’s Speech, Aronofsky would be the upset pick, Russell as well. I think Swan, Fighter and Network all have about the same chance and that the race shifted to between Nolan and Hooper on Tuesday.
God help us if Tom Hooper wins.
damn, no edit button. But Ron Howard and Apollo 13 have been mentioned more than once since Tuesday, by a lot of people. So that’s why I’m seeing the scenario of 1995, where the DGA winner isn’t even nominated at the oscars (and perhaps he won the DGA because of the Oscar snub)
Nolan should win.
I hated the look and camerawork of TKS
Locke thanks for the insight, hopefully it’s Nolan rather than Hooper
Fincher > Aronofsky > Nolan > Coen Brothers >>>>> Hooper.
I don’t think Hooper has a shot in hell. But maybe I’m totally wrong. I’d rank them…
1. Fincher
2. Aronofsky
3. Nolan
4. Hooper
5. O. Russell
I think it will be Fincher, but Speech will take the SAG ensemble. Though it is getting increasingly tight. I think Speech is a great film, but it’s not a director’s film; the acting and screenplay are what elevate it above a middling period piece. I think Hooper has some chops, The Damned United is excellent, but he is merely competent in Speech. On the other hand, Nolan, Fincher and Aronofsky (especially Aronofsky) have made extremely director-driven films and any would be a worthy winner.
I still think Nolan has a chance, but this is Fincher’s to lose. This win should put TSN back on track as a favorite, the DGA winner is often the director of the Best Picture winner.
Yeah, “Network,” “Inception,” and “Black Swan” are auteur kind of works. “The King’s Speech” is practically anonymous, directing wise. And “The Fighter” is a surprisingly thorough, singular work when it should be anything but.
Fincher has this. Predicting against him feels like predicting against the Coens in ’07 or Bigelow in ’09.
Kris, I still think TKS could easily win BP, but do you honestly believe the Directors branch will go for a relative newcomer to feature filmaking over these beloved and more experienced group of auteurs? Do the Director’s think of TKS as a director’s achievement on any level?
“Yeah, “Network,” “Inception,” and “Black Swan” are auteur kind of works. “The King’s Speech” is practically anonymous, directing wise.”
Doesn’t matter. You’re over-thinking it. This has increasingly been looked upon as a Best Picture award more than a Best Director award, just based on how things have seemed to pan out, especially in nominations, over the years.
Dylan: It’s not “the Directors branch,” it’s a massive group of people that includes everything from UPMs to ADs, and a lot of TV people. It’s not an exclusive 400-member director’s branch, which could understandably go a less populist way.
I also think people are being entirely unfair to The King’s Speech, which is anything but anonymous. It IS a director’s achievement. Let’s not be disrespectful and start acting like these damn things direct themselves.
Honestly, I feel like thinking something like TKS is “practically anonymous” betrays a gross ignorance of what it is to direct a film. If it’s not in-your-face avant garde Art with a capital “A,” it must be anonymous to some.
Not every film is “Black Swan” or “Inception,” but that doesn’t mean the theme isn’t well-delivered via visual storytelling or that quality performances aren’t drawn out by talented individuals. And that’s to say the least of it.
By the way, have you read Sorkin’s script for The Social Network? To think that Fincher added some major directorial flair to the project is silly. In fact, my line on his work there all year has been that he (wisely) got out of his own stylish way and let the characters and drama be the guide. He deserves props for that and for giving the film a unique identity via his composer choices, etc., but you could argue that TSN is an extended episode of The West Wing and therefore just as “anonymous,” in your words.
You see how this works? Dig a bit. Don’t just disavow something because, deep down, you just don’t get what it is to direct.
Fincher>Nolan>Aronofsky>Russell>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> holy mother of god…Hooper…
I will be happy if Nolan, Hooper, or Fincher wins.
Hooper is the youngest in the bunch, which works against him. This is his third feature. He’s also directed the respected TV movie Longford, and the highly regarded mini-series John Adams and Elizabeth 1. Plus Prime Suspect 6 and Daniel Deronda.
So he isn’t an auteur but he’s hardly unknown among the director’s branch.
The films don’t direct themselves and Hooper directed a good movie but I can’t see how you can argue against the directors of the other four films having a much greater role in their quality and success. I would rank Hooper last among the five.
You’re right, It didn’t direct itself, and Hooper certainly made it well. I just feel his achievement is a less obvious, for lack of better words, achievement.
To expand, when I rank director I kind of look at it like who I would vote for MVP of a sports league. For example I would vote for someone like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady this season over say Mike Vick or Aaron Rodgers because I feel they did more with less.
In my opinion I think with the same cast and crew a bunch of other directors could have helmed TKS and done just as good a job of it. I don’t think ANYONE else could have done what Fincher, Aronofsky or Nolan did and I think most would have done a lesser job with The Fighter than O’Russell.
Matthew: Couldn’t have said it better myself.
Hoopers direction was the films weakest part, it threw me out quite a few times (“Here I am, watching The Kings Speech”), especially all those distracting shots that felt forced and never quite fitted, also some of the transitions between scenes didn’t work at all. I’m pretty sure, many other directors would have gotten better results with the script and that cast. Then again, could Hooper have directed TSN, BS, Inception or even The Fighter with even similar results? Never.
Kris, I disagree with you. The Social Network is a major directorial achievement. Without Fincher the movie would have been a well-written courtroom drama. With Fincher, it turned into a devastating character study and a thriller with faultless acting work across the board. TSN would not have the same effect as a play. On the other hand, TKS would be just as good as a play, there’s nothing interesting that the director does.
However, you’re right on the prediction, TKS will win, it’s a populist movie that everyday moviegoers love with a passion and they won’t pass up awarding it. It’s just a shame that in a year of renowned directors giving us visionary work they’re going to go for a safe film that doesn’t do anything interesting cinematically.
Sorry but in my post I meant to say “directors’ guild.”
I’m not argue with anyone about who did a better job directing than others.
But I don’t think O’Russell or Aronofsky would have done a better directing job with the material of The King’s Speech than Hooper. And I was more impressed with the script of The Social Network than Fincher’s direction (and I’m a big fan of Zodiac).
For Hooper’s sake I guess it’s best he doesn’t win because all the Nolan-Aronofsky-Fincher fans will go nuts.
Wait, ¿this is Hooper’s first feature film? i had no idea…
No way, no way he’s winning this one (or Oscar), he’s no Sam Mendes and TKS is NO American Beauty (in every sense)
Yogs: Hooper also directed “The Damned United” with Michael Sheen
It’s amazing how the tides have turned so quickly once the PGA announced its winners and the Oscar nominations were revealed. After watching The Social Network sweep through the critics awards and take home Best Picture honors from the HFPA, its path to the winners’ circle was all but sealed for Oscar night. And then The King’s Speech took home the PGA and wound up with 12 Oscar nominations, thereby knocking The Social Network off its mighty pedestal. Are we really about to see The King’s Speech completely destroy all hope for The Social Network?
I just can’t see it happening with the DGA. We’re talking about Tom Hooper, a director who’s done solid work with Longford, Elizabeth I, and John Adams but hasn’t really made his mark in terms of the evolving cinematic process, vs. David Fincher, a director who’s paid his dues and made films that have enhanced the way we view cinema (Seven, Fight Club, Zodiac, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and now, The Social Network). Are Fincher’s peers really going to snub him for a film that may very well be his best work to date not in terms of directorial style but in terms of cinematic value? Or are they going to give it to Hooper, a man who’s still up-and-coming as a filmmaker and whom you could argue brought a unique visual style to The King’s Speech? I found said visual style to be distracting throughout but still, directors could view that as an developing visual acumen that should be nurtured and encouraged. My money’s on Fincher but I wouldn’t be surprised if they gave it to Hooper.
As for SAG, it’s going to be all about The King’s Speech with that branch. I originally thought The Fighter could get it since it won Ensemble, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress with the BFCA. But with The King’s Speech collecting the PGA and nailing down 12 Oscar nominations, its status as the frontrunner is rising by the day. A SAG victory makes sense as well because of what we’ve seen in the last week.
My predictions
DGA: David Fincher = The Social Network
SAG Ensemble: The King’s Speech
Fincher FTW!
I think The Fighter will win the SAG ensemble unless all the campaigning recently for TKS toward SAG pays off. Weinstein has certainly been working hard to get the SAG.
Yogs–Hooper also directed the feature Red Dust with Hilary Swank and Chiwetel Ejiofor but I no nothing about that. But The Damned United was a solid film, though no one cared about it in the US.
Kristopher, I’m glad to see that you are being brave to predict Tom Hooper to win the DGA. I voted for him at another site and was one of 8 votes out of hundreds.
Due to the frantic fever that the fans of Fincher, Nolan and Aronofsky have, the accomplishments of Hooper in TKS have been ignored through their ignorance of the art of ‘Directing a film’. Hooper did a fine job in directing TKS and I would be pleasantly surprised if his fellow directors awarded him with the DGA because they too realize the subtlety of his work and what he was doing, deliberately, in key scenes of TKS.
The King’s Speech is on track to win big at the Oscars.
Oh, sorry, my bad :(
The Damned United, i’ve heard a lot of good stuff about that film, i had no idea Hooper made it.
Arronofsky… and Kids Are All Right will take the SAG.. Trust me! Then it gets reaaaally interesting… I’m having secret hopes that Nicole Kidman pulls a SAG shocker.
I’d love for Nolan to win, too, but only 3% of DGA winners were directors who were hosed out of an Oscar nomination (Spielberg for Color Purple, Ron Howard for Apollo 13). It would not only be a validation of his superior work, but a staggering, embarrassing fuck you to the old fogies at the Academy.
That said, with the 3% in mind, Fincher FTW.
FINCHER.