84 responses so far

• 1 1-28-2011 at 3:14 pm
  
  Andrej said...

  I’ll go with the safe-ish bet and say David Fincher. I can’t really say that all the previous acclaim has been for nothing.

  Tom Hooper as a dark horse… maybe, but dunno. I don’t think it’s his time yet, especially against Fincher, Nolan and the Coens. If it happens I’d still expect a different outcome at the Oscars.

  Kris, hypothetically speaking, if Nolan ends up winning the DGA would you say Inception is back in the Top 5 regardless the snub? It’d immensely hurt The Social Network’s chances anyways.

• 2 1-28-2011 at 3:34 pm
  
  The Great Dane said...

  I would LOVE for Black Swan to prevail here. Never gonna happen, but imagine a four-way race we could end up having. A month ago it was Social Network vs. The Fighter, then back to Social Network vs. King’s Speech, then after the nominations someone is making it into King’s Speech vs. Social Network vs. True Grit.

  Black Swan is my favorite film of the year (having seen all the 10 nominees), and it’s too absurd to ever win, but imagine the DGA going for Black Swan and SAG going for The Fighter… ALL bets would be off.

  People have been saying King’s Speech and Social Network for months. But that was before Black Swan turned into a 100 million dollar baby – and before True Grit became the biggest western of all time. The Academy (and the BAFTA) are the only to vote after these two films became phenomenas. Does it change anything?

  Probably not – but a few years ago, all 5 films seem to be able to win on Oscar night. Little Miss Sunshine had the PGA, The Queen had the British vote, Departed had Scorsese, Babel had the Globe – and Letters from Iwo Jima was the last-minute revelation from Eastwood (which had the Foreign Language Globe). Afterwards everyone was saying “OF COURSE Departed won”. But up to the show everyone were split on the predictions. There were reasons why all of the films could win – and why all of them could lose. Even the 6th and 7th placed films, United 93 and Dreamgirls, would have been plausible winner predictions, had there been 7 nominees. In fact, wow, what a year: Pan’s Labyrinth, Lives of Others, Apocalypto, Children of Men, Little Children (to name a few others).

  I hope for some craziness with these two guilds. Go, Black Swan! (in my dreams…)

• 3 1-28-2011 at 3:36 pm
  
  Brock Landers said...

  If Tom Hooper wins, it may be the end of the world as we know it.

  Fincher has it in the bag.

• 4 1-28-2011 at 3:40 pm
  
  Chris P. said...

  I think Fincher is going to win. Mind you, the DGA have a tendency of going with nominees that have some kind of name recognition. ‘The King’s Speech’ is very popular, but nobody seems to really credit Hooper for its success.

• 5 1-28-2011 at 3:46 pm
  
  Edwin Drood said...

  I expect Fincher to win DGA (I can’t imagine ANY of the other nominees taking it) and “The Fighter” ensemble to take SAG (with only one of the supporting players winning his/her individual category; I can see the potential for either “TSN” or “TKS” to take ensemble, though), which will REALLY make people crazy…

• 6 1-28-2011 at 3:49 pm
  
  Gabriel D. said...

  When David Fincher and TSN won the Golden Globes, I had a feeling it was the beginning of the end for them. I don’t know why, but I got this feeling the wind has changed and is now blowing towards «The King’s Speech». I would go with predicting Tom Hooper , but I’ll be glad to see Darren Aranofsky win, because frankly, Black Swan is a directing ”chef-d’oeuvre”.

• 7 1-28-2011 at 3:58 pm
  
  Ibbs said...

  I don’t think he’s that safe, but I am predicting David Fincher.

• 8 1-28-2011 at 4:05 pm
  
  Graysmith said...

  Fincher in a cakewalk.

• 9 1-28-2011 at 4:07 pm
  
  JJ1 said...

  Fincher. His time could be now. Curious Case of Benjamin Button probably got him 2nd place. I think a lot of directors will want to acknowledge him. But not sure, at all.

• 10 1-28-2011 at 4:16 pm
  
  Ryan said...

  A little off topic, but is there an Oscar Talk this week?

• 11 1-28-2011 at 4:17 pm
  
  Kristopher Tapley said...

  Not with the Tuesday episode, no.

• 12 1-28-2011 at 4:31 pm
  
  Anita said...

  That is a depressing scenario you pose. And I sincerely hope you’re right. I’m still thinking Fincher. Does David O. Russell have any chance in hell?

• 13 1-28-2011 at 4:32 pm
  
  Anita said...

  Whoops. I meant to write “I sincerely hope you’re wrong.” That cannot be a Freudian slip. I could not want anything less.

• 14 1-28-2011 at 4:40 pm
  
  JJ1 said...

  I feel like this is a year where – in plenty of races – the possibility of upsets is everywhere.

  That has simply not been the case in previous years. However, I think the favorites will win-out in the end, anyway.

  Still, it’s been a long, but interesting season, so far.

• 15 1-28-2011 at 4:45 pm
  
  Maito said...

  Can’t imagine the DGA not embracing Fincher given his very personal momentum — versus the more general love for TKS.

  Hell, even with the utmost “John Adams” goodwill, even if this is the last hurrah for TSN before the tide changes, even if Scott Rudin throws phones at every DGA member, surely this is the one stop at award tour that The Social Network and MVP Fincher can’t lose.

• 16 1-28-2011 at 4:45 pm
  
  ann said...

  It would amazing if Nolan win, as a nice middle finger to the academy, I wonder how humiliating that would be…. Anyway I think fincher will win, if hooper wins then that would be a sad day

• 17 1-28-2011 at 4:46 pm
  
  americanrequeim said...

  im hoping fincher, but if they want to make him wait then so be it, we all know he has plenty of great films to come, as does aronofsky and nolan. I think we know they have great years ahead of them. This could be hoopers only chance and well i dont really know where to start on o’russel

• 18 1-28-2011 at 4:52 pm
  
  locke said...

  since Tuesday what I’ve heard across the board from members is that it’s Nolan, but so many ballots may have already been in that a surge may not help.

  I have a hard time saying Fincher because so much of what I’ve heard this year about SN from the industry has been pretty much the same, “it’s really good, a solid movie, but I don’t see what the excessive critical hysteria and fuss is about.” To which I usually reply, “it’s like Sideways, a movie about critics, or their particular little world/bubble, of course they are going berserk about it.”

  So I think the safe bet is Hooper for The King’s Speech, Aronofsky would be the upset pick, Russell as well. I think Swan, Fighter and Network all have about the same chance and that the race shifted to between Nolan and Hooper on Tuesday.

• 19 1-28-2011 at 4:52 pm
  
  Anna said...

  God help us if Tom Hooper wins.

• 20 1-28-2011 at 4:54 pm
  
  locke said...

  damn, no edit button. But Ron Howard and Apollo 13 have been mentioned more than once since Tuesday, by a lot of people. So that’s why I’m seeing the scenario of 1995, where the DGA winner isn’t even nominated at the oscars (and perhaps he won the DGA because of the Oscar snub)

• 21 1-28-2011 at 4:57 pm
  
  Rashad said...

  Nolan should win.

  I hated the look and camerawork of TKS

• 22 1-28-2011 at 4:59 pm
  
  ann said...

  Locke thanks for the insight, hopefully it’s Nolan rather than Hooper

• 23 1-28-2011 at 5:04 pm
  
  Voland said...

  Fincher > Aronofsky > Nolan > Coen Brothers >>>>> Hooper.

• 24 1-28-2011 at 5:06 pm
  
  tim said...

  I don’t think Hooper has a shot in hell. But maybe I’m totally wrong. I’d rank them…

  1. Fincher
  2. Aronofsky
  3. Nolan
  4. Hooper
  5. O. Russell

• 25 1-28-2011 at 5:22 pm
  
  Samuel said...

  I think it will be Fincher, but Speech will take the SAG ensemble. Though it is getting increasingly tight. I think Speech is a great film, but it’s not a director’s film; the acting and screenplay are what elevate it above a middling period piece. I think Hooper has some chops, The Damned United is excellent, but he is merely competent in Speech. On the other hand, Nolan, Fincher and Aronofsky (especially Aronofsky) have made extremely director-driven films and any would be a worthy winner.

• 26 1-28-2011 at 5:29 pm
  
  DylanS said...

  I still think Nolan has a chance, but this is Fincher’s to lose. This win should put TSN back on track as a favorite, the DGA winner is often the director of the Best Picture winner.

• 27 1-28-2011 at 5:31 pm
  
  Speaking English said...

  Yeah, “Network,” “Inception,” and “Black Swan” are auteur kind of works. “The King’s Speech” is practically anonymous, directing wise. And “The Fighter” is a surprisingly thorough, singular work when it should be anything but.

  Fincher has this. Predicting against him feels like predicting against the Coens in ’07 or Bigelow in ’09.

• 28 1-28-2011 at 5:32 pm
  
  DylanS said...

  Kris, I still think TKS could easily win BP, but do you honestly believe the Directors branch will go for a relative newcomer to feature filmaking over these beloved and more experienced group of auteurs? Do the Director’s think of TKS as a director’s achievement on any level?

• 29 1-28-2011 at 5:38 pm
  
  Kristopher Tapley said...

  “Yeah, “Network,” “Inception,” and “Black Swan” are auteur kind of works. “The King’s Speech” is practically anonymous, directing wise.”

  Doesn’t matter. You’re over-thinking it. This has increasingly been looked upon as a Best Picture award more than a Best Director award, just based on how things have seemed to pan out, especially in nominations, over the years.

  Dylan: It’s not “the Directors branch,” it’s a massive group of people that includes everything from UPMs to ADs, and a lot of TV people. It’s not an exclusive 400-member director’s branch, which could understandably go a less populist way.

  I also think people are being entirely unfair to The King’s Speech, which is anything but anonymous. It IS a director’s achievement. Let’s not be disrespectful and start acting like these damn things direct themselves.

• 30 1-28-2011 at 5:45 pm
  
  Kristopher Tapley said...

  Honestly, I feel like thinking something like TKS is “practically anonymous” betrays a gross ignorance of what it is to direct a film. If it’s not in-your-face avant garde Art with a capital “A,” it must be anonymous to some.

  Not every film is “Black Swan” or “Inception,” but that doesn’t mean the theme isn’t well-delivered via visual storytelling or that quality performances aren’t drawn out by talented individuals. And that’s to say the least of it.

  By the way, have you read Sorkin’s script for The Social Network? To think that Fincher added some major directorial flair to the project is silly. In fact, my line on his work there all year has been that he (wisely) got out of his own stylish way and let the characters and drama be the guide. He deserves props for that and for giving the film a unique identity via his composer choices, etc., but you could argue that TSN is an extended episode of The West Wing and therefore just as “anonymous,” in your words.

  You see how this works? Dig a bit. Don’t just disavow something because, deep down, you just don’t get what it is to direct.

• 31 1-28-2011 at 5:46 pm
  
  Yogs said...

  Fincher>Nolan>Aronofsky>Russell>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> holy mother of god…Hooper…

• 32 1-28-2011 at 5:48 pm
  
  daveylow said...

  I will be happy if Nolan, Hooper, or Fincher wins.

  Hooper is the youngest in the bunch, which works against him. This is his third feature. He’s also directed the respected TV movie Longford, and the highly regarded mini-series John Adams and Elizabeth 1. Plus Prime Suspect 6 and Daniel Deronda.

  So he isn’t an auteur but he’s hardly unknown among the director’s branch.

• 33 1-28-2011 at 5:48 pm
  
  Matthew Starr said...

  The films don’t direct themselves and Hooper directed a good movie but I can’t see how you can argue against the directors of the other four films having a much greater role in their quality and success. I would rank Hooper last among the five.

• 34 1-28-2011 at 5:52 pm
  
  DylanS said...

  You’re right, It didn’t direct itself, and Hooper certainly made it well. I just feel his achievement is a less obvious, for lack of better words, achievement.

• 35 1-28-2011 at 5:53 pm
  
  Matthew Starr said...

  To expand, when I rank director I kind of look at it like who I would vote for MVP of a sports league. For example I would vote for someone like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady this season over say Mike Vick or Aaron Rodgers because I feel they did more with less.

  In my opinion I think with the same cast and crew a bunch of other directors could have helmed TKS and done just as good a job of it. I don’t think ANYONE else could have done what Fincher, Aronofsky or Nolan did and I think most would have done a lesser job with The Fighter than O’Russell.

• 36 1-28-2011 at 5:56 pm
  
  DylanS said...

  Matthew: Couldn’t have said it better myself.

• 37 1-28-2011 at 5:57 pm
  
  Voland said...

  Hoopers direction was the films weakest part, it threw me out quite a few times (“Here I am, watching The Kings Speech”), especially all those distracting shots that felt forced and never quite fitted, also some of the transitions between scenes didn’t work at all. I’m pretty sure, many other directors would have gotten better results with the script and that cast. Then again, could Hooper have directed TSN, BS, Inception or even The Fighter with even similar results? Never.

• 38 1-28-2011 at 5:58 pm
  
  mike r. said...

  Kris, I disagree with you. The Social Network is a major directorial achievement. Without Fincher the movie would have been a well-written courtroom drama. With Fincher, it turned into a devastating character study and a thriller with faultless acting work across the board. TSN would not have the same effect as a play. On the other hand, TKS would be just as good as a play, there’s nothing interesting that the director does.

  However, you’re right on the prediction, TKS will win, it’s a populist movie that everyday moviegoers love with a passion and they won’t pass up awarding it. It’s just a shame that in a year of renowned directors giving us visionary work they’re going to go for a safe film that doesn’t do anything interesting cinematically.

• 39 1-28-2011 at 6:01 pm
  
  daveylow said...

  Sorry but in my post I meant to say “directors’ guild.”

  I’m not argue with anyone about who did a better job directing than others.

  But I don’t think O’Russell or Aronofsky would have done a better directing job with the material of The King’s Speech than Hooper. And I was more impressed with the script of The Social Network than Fincher’s direction (and I’m a big fan of Zodiac).

  For Hooper’s sake I guess it’s best he doesn’t win because all the Nolan-Aronofsky-Fincher fans will go nuts.

• 40 1-28-2011 at 6:03 pm
  
  Yogs said...

  Wait, ¿this is Hooper’s first feature film? i had no idea…
  No way, no way he’s winning this one (or Oscar), he’s no Sam Mendes and TKS is NO American Beauty (in every sense)

• 41 1-28-2011 at 6:06 pm
  
  DylanS said...

  Yogs: Hooper also directed “The Damned United” with Michael Sheen

• 42 1-28-2011 at 6:10 pm
  
  Lenny said...

  It’s amazing how the tides have turned so quickly once the PGA announced its winners and the Oscar nominations were revealed. After watching The Social Network sweep through the critics awards and take home Best Picture honors from the HFPA, its path to the winners’ circle was all but sealed for Oscar night. And then The King’s Speech took home the PGA and wound up with 12 Oscar nominations, thereby knocking The Social Network off its mighty pedestal. Are we really about to see The King’s Speech completely destroy all hope for The Social Network?

  I just can’t see it happening with the DGA. We’re talking about Tom Hooper, a director who’s done solid work with Longford, Elizabeth I, and John Adams but hasn’t really made his mark in terms of the evolving cinematic process, vs. David Fincher, a director who’s paid his dues and made films that have enhanced the way we view cinema (Seven, Fight Club, Zodiac, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and now, The Social Network). Are Fincher’s peers really going to snub him for a film that may very well be his best work to date not in terms of directorial style but in terms of cinematic value? Or are they going to give it to Hooper, a man who’s still up-and-coming as a filmmaker and whom you could argue brought a unique visual style to The King’s Speech? I found said visual style to be distracting throughout but still, directors could view that as an developing visual acumen that should be nurtured and encouraged. My money’s on Fincher but I wouldn’t be surprised if they gave it to Hooper.

  As for SAG, it’s going to be all about The King’s Speech with that branch. I originally thought The Fighter could get it since it won Ensemble, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress with the BFCA. But with The King’s Speech collecting the PGA and nailing down 12 Oscar nominations, its status as the frontrunner is rising by the day. A SAG victory makes sense as well because of what we’ve seen in the last week.

  My predictions

  DGA: David Fincher = The Social Network

  SAG Ensemble: The King’s Speech

• 43 1-28-2011 at 6:19 pm
  
  geha714 said...

  Fincher FTW!

• 44 1-28-2011 at 6:20 pm
  
  daveylow said...

  I think The Fighter will win the SAG ensemble unless all the campaigning recently for TKS toward SAG pays off. Weinstein has certainly been working hard to get the SAG.

• 45 1-28-2011 at 6:23 pm
  
  daveylow said...

  Yogs–Hooper also directed the feature Red Dust with Hilary Swank and Chiwetel Ejiofor but I no nothing about that. But The Damned United was a solid film, though no one cared about it in the US.

• 46 1-28-2011 at 6:27 pm
  
  Simone said...

  Kristopher, I’m glad to see that you are being brave to predict Tom Hooper to win the DGA. I voted for him at another site and was one of 8 votes out of hundreds.

  Due to the frantic fever that the fans of Fincher, Nolan and Aronofsky have, the accomplishments of Hooper in TKS have been ignored through their ignorance of the art of ‘Directing a film’. Hooper did a fine job in directing TKS and I would be pleasantly surprised if his fellow directors awarded him with the DGA because they too realize the subtlety of his work and what he was doing, deliberately, in key scenes of TKS.

  The King’s Speech is on track to win big at the Oscars.

• 47 1-28-2011 at 6:31 pm
  
  Yogs said...

  Oh, sorry, my bad :(
  The Damned United, i’ve heard a lot of good stuff about that film, i had no idea Hooper made it.

• 48 1-28-2011 at 6:43 pm
  
  g said...

  Arronofsky… and Kids Are All Right will take the SAG.. Trust me! Then it gets reaaaally interesting… I’m having secret hopes that Nicole Kidman pulls a SAG shocker.

• 49 1-28-2011 at 6:49 pm
  
  PaulH said...

  I’d love for Nolan to win, too, but only 3% of DGA winners were directors who were hosed out of an Oscar nomination (Spielberg for Color Purple, Ron Howard for Apollo 13). It would not only be a validation of his superior work, but a staggering, embarrassing fuck you to the old fogies at the Academy.

  That said, with the 3% in mind, Fincher FTW.

• 50 1-28-2011 at 7:04 pm
  
  mgl82 said...

  FINCHER.

• 51 1-28-2011 at 7:15 pm
  
  Earl said...

  The winner of the DGA feature film award has gone on to win the Academy Award for best director all but six times since 1948.
  He might deserve it but how do they go for Nolan when he has no chance at the Oscar. To me Aranovsky has just as good a chance as Hooper and they both trail Fincher by a mile. I will scream if it is Hooper as I hate KS and its glorification of the most despicable family institution in the developed world and the toadies who hold it in esteem. The movie is a trivial story about a guy getting speech training. I mean really! I predict a series starting with The King’s Physiotherapy.

• 52 1-28-2011 at 7:20 pm
  
  John said...

  Yeah, Fincher’s got this, but here’s hoping Nolan gets an Apollo 13. As in 1995, leaving the Best Director off of the nomination list is just inexcusable Academy.

  That, said, all five are great directors with movies that will be on their headstones, so no real problem if any one of them win.

  And TRUE GRIT is easily my favorite Coen Bros movie, so I have no pron with them showing up on the OScar list.

  But still, I really hope the DGA shows the Academy how to pick the actual Best Director of the year.

• 53 1-28-2011 at 7:22 pm
  
  Drew said...

  What if King’s Speech sweeps everything at the oscars. No seriously, think about it. It just gets every fucking award it’s up for. There for breaking records and pissing off critics everywhere and pundits everywhere. Can you imagine? I’m just sayin, it might happen. If the academy really, really loves that movie, it could leave everything in the dust.

• 54 1-28-2011 at 7:25 pm
  
  DylanS said...

  I can assure you Drew, Rush most definetly will not beat Bale. And it also has no chance at Cinematography or Sound Design.

• 55 1-28-2011 at 7:31 pm
  
  Earl said...

  The Fighter has to get the SAG ensemble which is a poor predictor for Oscar BP or BD. It has 3 legitimate nominations for the Oscar and two should be winners and Wahlberg was likely close in a tough category. Bardem probably edged him out and that movie has not even started in my city. Helena Bonham-Carter’s nomination is a big joke.
  This is my hope. Fincher gets the DG and the Fighter gets the SAG and all this nonsense about KS will go away. We do not need another feel good forgettable like Chariots of Fire or Driving Miss Daisy or Dances with Wolves beating Goodfellas.

• 56 1-28-2011 at 7:33 pm
  
  Plainview said...

  I say Fincher is a lock.

  Even if TKS really was the heavy favorite to win Best Picture (it isn’t), Fincher would still be a lock. Hooper is John Madden in 1998 , Rob Marshall in 2002 or Paul Haggis in 2005, a director in a frontrunner, but with no chance of winning whatsoever (yeah, BBM was the frontrunner in 2005, but you get my point).

  All of them had in common being unknown directors running against much bigger directors (though the favorite in 2002 seems Scorsese, not Polanski).

• 57 1-28-2011 at 7:37 pm
  
  Earl said...

  The most painful Oscar will be KS beating Inception for best original screenplay. It’s going to happen I guess. This is like comparing a drawing done with stick people to a Da Vinci.

• 58 1-28-2011 at 7:38 pm
  
  Chris138 said...

  Fincher’s gonna win but I’d be game for Nolan or Aronofsky taking the prize as well.

• 59 1-28-2011 at 7:42 pm
  
  Drew said...

  I don’t know, they do like Rush, he’s been nominated quite a bit, as for cinematography, a few commentators pointed out that Grit isn’t Deakins best work, so who is the default? Prolly Speech. Sound work, Inception’s sole oscar may end up being visual effects, and Krsi himself said he spoke with a ound designer who said King’s Speech was his favorite of the year.

• 60 1-28-2011 at 7:43 pm
  
  Earl said...

  The thing about Polanski beating Scorcese is that the Pianist was about a man overcoming a challenge (to survive) and triumphing at the end. Does that sound familiar.

• 61 1-28-2011 at 7:51 pm
  
  Plainview said...

  #60- Well, it sounds like thousands of movies actually.

• 62 1-28-2011 at 8:13 pm
  
  DylanS said...

  I still think Bale is probably the safeist pick of the night, minus mabye Firth. It would be foolish to expect anybody else to win, even if Rush is in the #2 spot, whatever that means at this point.

• 63 1-28-2011 at 8:25 pm
  
  Earl said...

  Bale was amazing. It took me a while to even realize it was him.

• 64 1-28-2011 at 8:27 pm
  
  Earl said...

  Colin Firth was terrific in a movie I hated. I wish James Franco was getting more of a look but I guess he will be owed down the road.

• 65 1-28-2011 at 9:10 pm
  
  Ben M. said...

  Plainview, I don’t think any of the comparisons are apt, Shakespeare in Love and Crash were both surprise BP wins so a split makes sense, are Marshall was the favorite to win director on oscar night and Polanski’s win was a huge shock.

  Anyway, I’m going with Fincher at the DGA and academy, but I feel it is very close with Hooper at the DGA (leaving a slight chance for a Nolan shock given Spielberg and Howard won DGAs after oscar snubs) and wouldn’t be shocked if Hooper wins the oscar either.

• 66 1-28-2011 at 9:15 pm
  
  Ben said...

  I could see Hooper winning this; but I do think within the DGA, Fincher has a lot of support from his breaking into the industry with music videos and commercials.

• 67 1-28-2011 at 9:15 pm
  
  Speaking English said...

  ***The most painful Oscar will be KS beating Inception for best original screenplay. It’s going to happen I guess. This is like comparing a drawing done with stick people to a Da Vinci.***

  Wait wait wait. You’re comparing the script of “Inception” to a DA VINCI? LOL!!! This is ridiculous.

  The best in the category is “Another Year,” anyway.

• 68 1-28-2011 at 9:38 pm
  
  Ben M. said...

  Yeah, to be honest I might even rank Inception’s script slightly below Avatar’s (a script which clearly has a number of bad lines of dialogue, but I think those lines somewhat unfairly overshadowed rich thematic concerns and solid story structure/character development) and that couldn’t even get a nom last year.

  Though I’m no fan of the King’s Speech script and probably would place that as the weakest in the category, I feel either Another Year or Kids Are All Right would be deserving winners.

• 69 1-28-2011 at 10:13 pm
  
  Speaking English said...

  “The Fighter” is tops as well.

• 70 1-29-2011 at 1:58 am
  
  M. Ward said...

  ***Wait wait wait. You’re comparing the script of “Inception” to a DA VINCI? LOL!!! This is ridiculous.***

  He’s not comparing the script of “Inception” to a DA VINCI. Don’t you know how analogies work? He’s saying compared to, in his opinion, KS’s crappy script, “Inception’s” script IS like a masterpiece.

• 71 1-29-2011 at 5:11 am
  
  Maito said...

  Locke, uh, but if it’s a 10,000 member organization, you’d have to be the Warren Beatty of chit-chat to get a telling sample. I’d be overjoyed if Nolan did take it, though. I didn’t even dare dream.

  Not every film is “Black Swan” or “Inception,” but that doesn’t mean the theme isn’t well-delivered via visual storytelling or that quality performances aren’t drawn out by talented individuals.

  I’m definitely not exclusively an auteur-cheerleader, but while Hooper’s visual idiom was respectable, Fincher’s was impressive. Both got fine performances out of their cast, but Fincher was working with actors that were more untested, to say the least, in comparison, plus the “risks” he took (Timberlake, Reznor, CGI Winklevoss, whatever) paid off handsomely. No disrespect to Hooper, who must has a bright career ahead of him, but surely Fincher has earned _something_ (with Seven, Fight Club, Zodiac) that gives him the edge among voters. Maybe I’m seriously underestimating populist pull at DGA, eh who knows, but it’s also not like TKS is the only film with passionate fans.

  >>Drew: Grit isn’t Deakins best work

  Just like The Departed wasn’t Scorsese’s finest hour, almost irrelevant at their peerless level… but Deakin’s had memorable lensing of a smash hit that isn’t likely to win a whole lot during the night. Cinematography seems like the obvious spot to show a little love and if he’s not an outright lock, then definitely the front-runner, even if his overdue angle isn’t pimped to the max (as it should..) I think Deakins would be the single most deserving winner of the night out of every possible filmfolk who worked during the calender year.

• 72 1-29-2011 at 6:20 am
  
  The Dude said...

  I have a feeling that the DGA is going to want to award a DIRECTOR rather than a FILM (unlike, say, the SAG ensemble award). Because of this, I can’t see Hooper winning, as he’s probably the least popular of the nominated directors. I’m sure he’ll get some votes based on the popularity of the film, but I think this one is going to Fincher, with Aronofsky as a potential spoiler.

• 73 1-29-2011 at 6:38 am
  
  Guy Lodge said...

  It’s worth remembering that the DGA did pick Rob Marshall over Roman Polanski and Martin Scorsese eight years ago. If the film has enough momentum, the profile of the director isn’t crucial.

• 74 1-29-2011 at 6:41 am
  
  Sam C. said...

  I don’t reckon NOlan has much of a chance; an Oscar snub could make potential voters go from supporting him to someone else.

  I’d say Hopper or Fincher take this. Russell and Aronofsky I’m doubtful of.

  In the end…going with Fincher

• 75 1-29-2011 at 7:38 am
  
  Dominik said...

  If we want some heat and suspense left in the race, we better cross our fingers for Fincher to win. If Hooper takes it, I can´t see “TKS” losing at the Oscars. The most likely scenario, though, is Fincher taking DGA and Oscar – and “TSN” and “TKS” have a hell of a fight for “Best Picture”.

  And I do think that Annette Bening is possibly beating Natalie Portman. I´m a huge Portman fan, but I have to admit (after a second viewing of “Black Swan”) that her acting at times felt a bit “too much”, since there´s a over-dosis of shock and paranoia in that movie.

• 76 1-29-2011 at 8:30 am
  
  /3rtfu11 said...

  “The most painful Oscar will be KS beating Inception for best original screenplay. It’s going to happen I guess. This is like comparing a drawing done with stick people to a Da Vinci.”

  I believe this category will have TKAAR upset.–A gay themed Focus Feature “feature” – as won in both screenwriting categories of recent.

• 77 1-29-2011 at 8:31 am
  
  Daveylow said...

  I just listened to Hooper being interviewed on Tavis Smiley and it turns out TKS is a very personal project for him since he is British-Australian. He’s also extremely articulate about what he was doing in each scene. This man is far from some hack, passionless director.

• 78 1-29-2011 at 12:47 pm
  
  Samuel said...

  I’m a big fan of inception, liked it better than Kings Speech, but I don’t think it’s screenplay is a whole lot better. It’s an hour and a half of exposition and a 45 minute climax. Granted, the climax is brilliant and the exposition is entertaining but I’m not so hot on the screenplay overall. The big issue is that the motivations and goals of the characters, with the exception of Cobb,are murky at best, non-existent at worst. No one but Cobb has any character arc to speak of. In Speech every single one of the characters has a clear motivation and goal and undergoes some kind of change. Speech may not be a better film, but it’s a better screenplay.

• 79 1-29-2011 at 1:10 pm
  
  Samuel said...

  Of course, you could argue that the supporting characters in Inception are shallow because they’re a part of Cobb’s dream. But that’s just being clever.

  Anyway, my point isn’t that Inception is a bad screenplay, far from it. It’s that The King’s Speech is a good screenplay, a very good one.

• 80 1-29-2011 at 1:28 pm
  
  Paul Outlaw said...

  My prediction: Fincher
  Dark horse: NOLAN

  My preference (this year):
  1. Russell
  2. Nolan
  3. Aronofsky
  4. Fincher (oddly, my favorite director of the five)
  5. Hooper

• 81 1-29-2011 at 1:52 pm
  
  Patryk said...

  Will win: Fincher
  Could win: Hooper
  Should win: Aronofsky
  Should have been nominated: Coen/Coen

• 82 1-29-2011 at 2:44 pm
  
  Derek 8-Track said...

  “I also think people are being entirely unfair to The King’s Speech, which is anything but anonymous. It IS a director’s achievement. Let’s not be disrespectful and start acting like these damn things direct themselves.”

  Thank you!

• 83 1-29-2011 at 4:49 pm
  
  Damon Larkins said...

  Ok once again, I’ve got to solve this dilemma. The Kings Speech won the PGA, ok that’s it! The film is great, but it has no chance against TSN director David Fincher. When Fincher lost with his supposed masterpiece “button”, it made sense, it was highly overrated and it was the year of the dog. Just like Slumdog Millionaire, which won Boyle his first Oscar, the same will happen with Fincher. Weinstein has no power in the DGA, this is a Directors award by a board of the most critical academy members of directing. Nolan not getting nominated for Best Director at the Oscars, is not going to get him a sympathy win, so don’t assume something that silly. Arronofsky has directed Black Swan with some of the stylish, abstract, and beautiful camera work, but sadly he won’t win. That film has hardly any buzz, except for Portman. David O Russel would be an upset, but he can’t beat out Fincher, or Arronofsky, and Nolan, no way. Fincher will come out on top, because that gas been darn near unanimous since the awards season began. You can hop on the King to lead you the throne, but he’s getting overthrown by a bunch of computer nerds come Oscar night!

• 84 1-29-2011 at 9:33 pm
  
  len said...

  I think anyone who is a director cannot ignore what christopher nolan did with inception — which is why i find it puzzling why he is not winning more awards or is the front runner.

  I say it’s david fincher, but hope it’s Nolan. They may love the kings speech but i think they will go with someone who has been nominated before.

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