Did you hear? The Oscar nominations were announced this morning. And there was a lot to chew on. (And boy can we be grateful for that.)
With a full slate of contenders in front of us, it seemed only right to go ahead and offer up the latest set of winner predictions. They are indicated by asterisk in the sidebar and are listed out in full after the jump.
After roughly a week of falling into the logic (and blaring rhetoric) suggesting “The Social Network” would turn its critics run into Oscar gold, I’m back to my instincts (and, judging by its nomination haul, the will of the Academy) with a bet on “The King’s Speech.” Not only that, but I think we could see a mini-sweep for the film, as a couple of potentially formidable competitors were ousted from the nominations in a few craft fields.
Of course, things could change. But I’m sensing a momentum shift, and it’s frankly one we could have expected was around the corner.
One thing worth noting, before I get to these, is that I’m kind of struck by the number of categories that could go a few different ways. For instance, I could see any of the makeup nominees win that award. It looks like it’ll be a fun phase two after all.
(By the way, do vote in our latest sidebar poll and predict which way you think the Best Picture race will go.)
Best Picture
“The King’s Speech”
Best Director
David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Best Actor
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress
Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
Best Adapted Screenplay
“The Social Network”
Best Original Screenplay
“The King’s Speech”
Best Art Direction
“The King’s Speech”
Best Cinematography
“True Grit”
Best Costume Design
“The King’s Speech”
Best Film Editing
“The Social Network”
Best Makeup
“The Wolfman”
Best Music (Original Score)
“The King’s Speech”
Best Music (Original Song)
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3”
Best Sound Editing
“Inception”
Best Sound Mixing
“Inception”
Best Visual Effects
“Inception”
Best Animated Feature Film
“Toy Story 3”
Best Foreign Language Film
“In a Better World”
Best Documentary Feature
“Exit Through the Gift Shop”
Best Documentary Short
“Strangers No More”
Best Short Film (Animated)
“The Gruffalo”
Best Short Film (Live Action)
“Na Wewe”
PREDICTED TALLY:
“The King’s Speech” — 6
“Inception,” “The Social Network” — 3
“Toy Story 3,” “True Grit” — 2
“Black Swan,” “The Fighter,” “The Wolfman,” “Exit Through the Gift Shop” — 1
We’ll see. What about you?
[Photo: The Weinstein Company]
Comments
78 responses to “Post-nod winner predictions (and a new poll)”
I’m not even sure a David Fincher win is that assured anymore…
Aside from Art Direction (I picked Inception), we have the exact same picks.
I feel smart today. Thanks Kris!
Kris,
What a great list of winners imo!
I agree taht Hailee now has a bigger chance after her film got 10 nominations. And lets be honest True Grit doesnt have much chance with other top 5 categories. So, they may decide to award it with Best Supporting Actress (apparently they like the movie enough to give 10 nods)! I dont know how those academy members think when they vote, this could easily be the case! Award Hailee for the entire movie. She is not bad for sure. But I’d like to see one of the Fighter ladies, especially Amy Adams win! Oh well!
I just want to say that I think a lot people are taking Nolan’s snub the wrong way. It is clearly not personal in the same way that Stephen Daldry’s three consecutive nods are not personal (though some for it really did come for quality work).
Yes, Nolan deserved a nomination here but he is finding himself where many other big name directors found themselves previously – it’s really, like REALLY hard to get an Oscar nomination for directing a science fiction film that is not a also a leading contender for best picture Oscar.
Just try to take some solace in the wrinting and producing nominations that he has gotten.
It would be a huge mistake if the Academy chooses The King’s Speech over The Social Network.
I dunno about Original Score suddenly shifting to The King’s Speech. Zimmer has always been a frontrunner from the get-go, and Reznor/Ross were shaping up very nicely to this point, and for a third pick, I’d go with Powell.
Unless they decide to reward Desplat’s career out of the blue with a belated Oscar, I’d still keep Inception or The Social Network in mind as the more probable winners here. I don’t that The King’s Speech being the leader in nominations is enough to cancel out all the accolades and acclaim the other two scores had so far.
Tom Hooper beating those other four nominees would be horrendous.
I can see TKS winning editing as well. There is no Bourne Ultimatum or Black Hawk Down to steal it. I thought Inception might be that movie but apparently not.
Kris,
No prediction for Foreign movie?? Maybe Biutiful?
Like I mentioned in the other thread
Of the 24 films who scored 12 or more nominations, 15 won best picture. Of those 15, 12 also won Best Director. Shakespeare in Love (98), Gladiator (00), and Chicago (02) all lost Best Director. 2 of those are Weinstein babies.
Splitsville here we come.
In my previous comment: “I don’t that The King’s Speech…”
I meant “I don’t -think- that The King’s Speech…”. Whoopsies.
I must say that I enjoyed The King’s Speech immensley. It sounds dull on paper, but it’s very funny, moving, and lively. First rate casting, writing, and directing all combine to really get the job done. I felt similarly about The Social Network, though I must say I found it a tad exhausting. I have a soft spot for The Kids Are All Right too. People seem to have forgotten how funny it is. All and all a really good year for ambitious, intelligent, adult films that seem to be making money.
I’d call Exit Through the Gift Shop the Best Picture of the year, however. It says as much about the zeitgiest as does The Social Network. Alas, it was not nominated as BP.
I’d love to see Melissa Leo win. Steinfeld would be a fine choice too, but I love to see hard-working character actors get big awards.
The Best Actress is Portman’s to lose. She gives the kind of physical performance that the Academy loves to recognize. Too bad because Bening has never been better, but her performance is just too subtle to get full attention.
Bale seems to be award-bound, but I must sing the praises of Mark Ruffalo. Another hardworking character actor who usually downplays his looks. His sexiness was truly intoxicating.
any reason for leaving out best foreign film??
Is everyone suddenly jumping on The King’s Speech bandwagon because Big Harv greased up the PGA awards? (uh oh, here comes the mud everyone!)
Hm, I don’t think HS is going to beat Melissa Leo. Watch Missy campaign.
Hm, I don’t think HS is going to beat Melissa Leo. Watch Missy campaign for that statue.
those all look quite possible, but the kings speech would be a rather lame winner for original score
THE KING’S SPEECH Will win .
TSN Is dead and buried .Best film of the year , yet only 8 nods compared to 12 for TKS And 10 for coens .
I Am very sad today .
My only hope now is NATALIE PORTMAN .
Come on Natalie .
If not the social netowrk, go true grit for best pic..or black swan
Going with the “well it got this far” theory on Exit Through the Gift Shop?
I’m agree with most of your calls right now, but I got some choices of my own:
Best Documentary: Inside Job
Best Production Design: Inception
Best Original Score: The Social Network (but an upset by Alexander Desplat is now possible)
In the case of Best Supporting Actress, Leo could still win if the focus of The Fighter goes with her instead of Adams. Otherwise, Steinfield has a real shot.
Best Music (Original Score)
“Inception”
Best Music (Original Song)
“If I Rise” from “127 Hours″
Indiana
“I’m not even sure a David Fincher win is that assured anymore…”
Who in the world is going to beat him? I mean really.
Overall, I really don’t see why today changes much. Outside of Sound Mixing and maybe Cinematography, “The King’s Speech” pretty much got exactly what was expected for it to get. What huge surge has it now picked up?
And those same voters who included it in Sound and Cinematography, also thought to include “The Social Network.” Who’s to say that they all like “The King’s Speech” more?
I think that eight nomination was pretty much all that could be expected for “Social Network”. The only category it might have also get a nod would be for Andrew Garfield, but the amount of nominations suggest that there is quite a lot of support for the movie.
How could someone honestly be surprised that “The King´s Speech” is the leader today? I predicted 11 nominations, but ok. I´m really looking forward to a thrilling showdown – and when was the last time the Best Picture-race was actually a race?? 2006, when The Departed won. Long time ago.
Kris, is the “is it real?” discussion regarding Exit through the Gift Shop going to hold it back with the Academy? Or is the nomination enough proof that it’s not?
Even though Nolan now has 3 Oscar nominations, I think it’s stunning that he’s yet to be nommed for Director … AND …
Inception only made the Top 10 because of The Dark Knight snub.
The Social Network, The King’s Speech, The Fighter & Black Swan (all got directing, acting, and writing noms).
True Grit got directing, acting, writing, and 10 noms.
Inception got 8 noms to True Grit’s 10, and with no directing or editing(!).
I believe Inception was 6th; hence a Nolan film missing again. Stunning.
Let’s just remember that “The Departed” won with Dreamgirls, Babel, Pan’s Labyrinth, and the Queen all getting more nominations for it.
This doom and gloom about “The Social Network” is just ignorance. It may lose, but it may very well win too.
I think that while The King’s Speech is A frontrunner, it’s not THE frontrunner now. It’s about neck and neck with Social Network. We’ve seen ever since Million Dollar Baby that the most nod doesn’t mean anything. If the academy geezers are back to their old tricks, then they have no cred. What’s wrong Big Bad Harvey? Has it been too long since one of your movies won so now you have to buy another one? There were just too many forehead smackers this morning. No Inception for Director or Editing? They have something against Chris Nolan!!!! It cannot be denied!!!
And don’t tell me it’s the Scifi thing….Avatar was a Dances with Wolves retred and that was nominated. Next, no Tron for visual effects or score? Tron is not the best movie in the world but goddamn. In fact, Hereafter being nominated is a slap in the face to truly ground breaking visuals in not only Tron but Scott Pilgrim as well…..and I am surprised at you, Kris, for jumping on the TKS bandwagon and giving it so many awards. Suddenly, you think it’s going to win all of those because of it’s awards tally. Not gonna happen. Best pic maybe, but not as many awards as you have it for….
Andrej said…
In my previous comment: “I don’t that The King’s Speech…”
I meant “I don’t -think- that The King’s Speech…”. Whoopsies.
lol…Very droll and apt since we are talking about..ehh..t.he k..ing’s sssspeeech
“Inception only made the Top 10 because of The Dark Knight snub.”
“I believe Inception was 6th; hence a Nolan film missing again. Stunning.”
JJ1, it sounds like you are contradicting yourself there.
The momentum swing doesn’t necessarily come with the 12 nominations today, but the Producers win last week.
Before that precursor, “The King’s Speech” didn’t have ANY case to take the prize, but now it has some serious evidence behind it.
I don’t think that much has changed either. A fistful of nominations does not a Best Picture make. Social Network is still the one to beat…..though I will be keeping an eye on the SAG awards.
The director’s branch just proclaimed out loud, “Chris Nolan can go fuck himself”
: ) Sadistic thought it may sound, I was undeniably thrilled.
Whoever said that Black Swan got writing needs to check the nominations again.
I still think that The Social Network will pull through.
Fincher has his prize in the bag.
Colin Firth is almost a lock, but I think Eissenberg could upset, or possibly Franco.
Portman only has Benning to worry about, which shouldn’t be a problem.
Bale is a lock.
I really really really want Steinfeld to win. She’s so good in True Grit, and I’d very much like her to take home the Oscar, but I think that Melissa Leo will beat her by a nose.
The Social Network will obviously take Adapted Screenplay
Original Screenplay is a really tough call. I want Inception to win, but The King’s Speech is so loved that I think that TKS will win.
Documentary I would love LOVE to go to Exit Through the Gift Shop. It’s a brilliant and engrossing piece of film making, and it deserves that recognition.
Biutiful or In a Better World are the only real contenders in Foreign Film, and even then I’m sure that Biutiful has this. This is pretty much The Sea Inside all over again.
Why don’t we just give the statuette to Toy Story 3 already?
Art Direction I’ll say Inception.
Costumes will go to Alice in Wonderland.
Editing WOULD have gone to Lee Smith HAD he been nominated, but instead, it’ll go to The Social Network.
Cinematography is a two way race between Inception and True Grit. It could go either way really, and both Deakins and Pfister are equally deserving.
Make Up will go to Wolfman, despite sucking.
Inception has no competition for Visual Effects
Sound Mixing – Inception
Sound Editing – take a wild guess
I think that Trent Reznor will have an Oscar to make the GO in EGOT
Song is an odd category. I kind of want to see it go to Tangled, but I’d also like to see Toy Story 3 win here. I’ll go with Toy Story 3 though.
Day and Night for Animated Short
I don’t know about the other two categories.
With no Halle Berry, there are no African American nominations. Pretty crazy for these times. Any thoughts?
@ Shaun: kinda makes me feel like Bardem got some sort of diversity vote…not that I’ve seen Biutiful to judge it. Also looking at the poll results, looks like this is officially a two horse race, but the all the Coen love the Academy seems to have, I won’t be shocked by a True Grit upset. I really don’t see anything else winning it at this point. Until today i thought Inception or Black Swan could have the tiniest of chances, but the lack of a director nomination for Nolan, and the underwhelming showing of support for Black Swan has all but sunk those ships.
I feel bad for any movie that wins that isn’t The Social Network — it will be a Crash moment. Anyway the nominees this year are so, so boring — not one surprise!
“What’s wrong Big Bad Harvey? Has it been too long since one of your movies won so now you have to buy another one?”
Jason, you are showing compelte lack of understanding here. Harvey isn’t buying anything and, if anything, probably spends a lot less than Rudin. He just knows how to maximize what he’s got. He knows how to play the field alright, but he’s doing it differently from what you think.
“They have something against Chris Nolan!!!! It cannot be denied!!! And don’t tell me it’s the Scifi thing….Avatar was a Dances with Wolves retred and that was nominated.”
You are not even addressing what I said. I specifically mentioned the Best Picture Contender Status. Avatar had a real shot while Inception didn’t. If you want to argue with that – go ahead but somehow I doubt you will.
And, honestly, Inception’s editing wasn’t… that phenomenal. The movie had some pacing issues.
Totally Team Hailee. Hope she can win it!!
Haillee Steinfeld could win just as Tilda Swinton did and voters show their favour for a well-liked movie in one category.
And no visual effects nom for Tron: Legacy? Granted I don’t think anything would be beating Inception, but it should’ve at least been on the list.
And as for True Grit actually winning, I think it has a snowball’s chance. It’s a two horse race (with, I dare say, King’s Speech sprinting towards the finish). The writing’s on the wall.
What’s more, people voting for BP will know this. Those preferring King’s Speech will probably not have The Social Network anywhere near the top. Them’s the breaks.
If “The King’s Speech” manages to beat “The Social Network” for Best Picture, it will be yet another black eye in the long history of dumb choices by the Academy. I really hope this does not happen.
What about Foreign Film?
Maxim, I’m sorry (it does look strange), what I mean to say is ….
I think Inception is 6th. But I think that had they not expanded to 10, Inception may have been quite a bit lower than 6th. So much of the hoopla of creating 10 was because of The Dark Knight (and Wall-E).
I don’t think Social Network is the best of the nominees nor so far above its fellow nominees that they will be deserving of vitriol if they won over Social Network.
Social Network would make a good winner, but so would The King’s Speech and True Grit and Winter’s Bone. Toy Story 3 and The Kids Are All Right would make outstanding winners.
“So much of the hoopla of creating 10 was because of The Dark Knight (and Wall-E).”
I never bought into that. People overestimate the impact those films failure to secure a BP spot had on academy. And honestly, I don’t think the fact that there’s ten spots now would have affected Inception’s placements much. Maybe a little but I still think it would have been in the ten.
Once they all get on to the plane the editing of Inception is the best of the year.
Before that I do agree it kind of lags, especially on repeat viewings. The problem with a lot of exposition is it’s fine the first time but if you want to see the film five, ten times then it becomes a nuisance.
Kris, not sure where to put this or if it’s already been mentioned in other threads, but you’ve got TRON listed in the sidebar for Sound Mixing when The King’s Speech got the nod instead.
I voted King’s Speech in the poll, the fact that King’s Speech got some unexpected nominations (Sound Mixing) while The Social Network had some surprising snubs (Garfield) plus the PGA win and knowing TKS is much more in the Academy’s wheelhouse than TSN leads me to believe that the critical stampede is not going to be enough to put TSN over the top.
red_wine, I think all of us have movies that we’d rather not see get recognition, and root against works fairly often. But you seem to enjoy it so much. Amidst, all the sadism, it is worth recalling that people create these works of art.
Recall, Anton Ego’s speech in Ratatouille: “In many ways, the work of a critic is easy. We risk very little, yet enjoy a position over those who offer up their work and their selves to our judgment. We thrive on negative criticism, which is fun to write and to read. But the bitter truth we critics must face, is that in the grand scheme of things, the average piece of junk is probably more meaningful than our criticism designating it so.”
There is a place to weigh the deficits of a work of art, but to thrill in purported mean, personal declarations is unfortunate.
I just realized that those who declared the Social Network as one of the best movies of last decade have been quite today! Probably they are busy with planning how to spin the nominations!
Let me guess: they will blame Harvey for “buying the nominations”. They will blame the British voting block. They will blame those academy members who are not smart enough to appreicate TSN! They will manufacture some data and charts to support what they belief and present them as facts!
But all those do not ch ange that fact TKS got the most nominations! How many will it win? We will wait and see. Meanwhile, until Feb 27 TKS can reign as the movie with most nominations!