Post-nod winner predictions (and a new poll)

Posted by · 8:32 am · January 25th, 2011

Did you hear?  The Oscar nominations were announced this morning.  And there was a lot to chew on.  (And boy can we be grateful for that.)

With a full slate of contenders in front of us, it seemed only right to go ahead and offer up the latest set of winner predictions.  They are indicated by asterisk in the sidebar and are listed out in full after the jump.

After roughly a week of falling into the logic (and blaring rhetoric) suggesting “The Social Network” would turn its critics run into Oscar gold, I’m back to my instincts (and, judging by its nomination haul, the will of the Academy) with a bet on “The King’s Speech.” Not only that, but I think we could see a mini-sweep for the film, as a couple of potentially formidable competitors were ousted from the nominations in a few craft fields.

Of course, things could change.  But I’m sensing a momentum shift, and it’s frankly one we could have expected was around the corner.

One thing worth noting, before I get to these, is that I’m kind of struck by the number of categories that could go a few different ways.  For instance, I could see any of the makeup nominees win that award.  It looks like it’ll be a fun phase two after all.

(By the way, do vote in our latest sidebar poll and predict which way you think the Best Picture race will go.)

Best Picture
“The King’s Speech”

Best Director
David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”

Best Actress
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”

Best Supporting Actress
Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“The Social Network”

Best Original Screenplay
“The King’s Speech”

Best Art Direction
“The King’s Speech”

Best Cinematography
“True Grit”

Best Costume Design
“The King’s Speech”

Best Film Editing
“The Social Network”

Best Makeup
“The Wolfman”

Best Music (Original Score)
“The King’s Speech”

Best Music (Original Song)
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3”

Best Sound Editing
“Inception”

Best Sound Mixing
“Inception”

Best Visual Effects
“Inception”

Best Animated Feature Film
“Toy Story 3”

Best Foreign Language Film
“In a Better World”

Best Documentary Feature
“Exit Through the Gift Shop”

Best Documentary Short
“Strangers No More”

Best Short Film (Animated)
“The Gruffalo”

Best Short Film (Live Action)
“Na Wewe”

PREDICTED TALLY:

“The King’s Speech” — 6
“Inception,” “The Social Network” — 3
“Toy Story 3,” “True Grit” — 2
“Black Swan,” “The Fighter,” “The Wolfman,” “Exit Through the Gift Shop” — 1

We’ll see.  What about you?

[Photo: The Weinstein Company]




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78 responses so far

  • 1 1-25-2011 at 11:06 am

    PaulH said...

    Maxim: “I just want to say that I think a lot people are taking Nolan’s snub the wrong way. It is clearly not personal in the same way that Stephen Daldry’s three consecutive nods are not personal (though some for it really did come for quality work).

    Yes, Nolan deserved a nomination here but he is finding himself where many other big name directors found themselves previously – it’s really, like REALLY hard to get an Oscar nomination for directing a science fiction film that is not a also a leading contender for best picture Oscar.

    Just try to take some solace in the wrinting and producing nominations that he has gotten.”

    Three words: It’s not enough.

  • 2 1-25-2011 at 11:07 am

    Scott Coleman said...

    Stone is trying to spin it. She should just admit that Fincher isn’t a lock in for director now.

  • 3 1-25-2011 at 11:08 am

    red_wine said...

    darklayers, as someone said, “Human am I, I love too, hate too…”

    Not to put too much thought into my joy but I was rather more thrilled with the way the non-nomination would be perceived rather than my own happiness arising out of it. Infact I’m pretty sure the latter does not even exist, cause I really don’t care but the former is a source of constant enjoyment.

  • 4 1-25-2011 at 11:08 am

    Loyal said...

    @ Maxim

    “So much of the hoopla of creating 10 was because of The Dark Knight (and Wall-E).”

    “I never bought into that. ”

    The AMPAS president is on record saying those films came up when the idea to expand to 10 was proposed. It’s nothing to buy into, it’s factual.

    @ Evan

    “Let’s just remember that “The Departed” won with Dreamgirls, Babel, Pan’s Labyrinth, and the Queen all getting more nominations for it.”

    You realize two of those films weren’t actually nominated for Best Picture. A slightly better example would be Lord of the Rings with 13 nominations losing to A Beautiful Mind which had 8 (though I didn’t expect LOTR to win).

  • 5 1-25-2011 at 11:12 am

    Maxim said...

    “The AMPAS president is on record saying those films came up when the idea to expand to 10 was proposed. It’s nothing to buy into, it’s factual.”

    Loyal, it’s amazing. Read what you just wrote:
    It’s not suprising that those films came up when the idea was proposed. But it came up AFTERwards. There’s cause and then there’s effect.

    Besides, just because something comes up, doesn’t mean it has much dominance. Things come up all the time.

  • 6 1-25-2011 at 11:16 am

    Aaron said...

    I too think that Hailee Steinfeld could pull an upset a la Tilda Swinton/Michael Clayton. Christian Bale already has his name engraved on his statuette, but best supporting actress still seems a bit up in the air. A month ago I thought Amy Adams would sweep these awards, but I don’t think she can pull through.

  • 7 1-25-2011 at 11:19 am

    mike r. said...

    I don’t see David Fincher winning Best Director if there’s a wave for The King’s Speech like I expect. Does the academy at-large really think David Fincher is overdue? It’s not like some other splits like with Spielberg and SPR where he was so well known and the direction called attention to itself. I could see the directors voting for Fincher but if AMPAS loves TKS as much as it appears it does, Hooper will not lose which is a shame. Can you imagine in the year when we have Nolan, Fincher, Aronofsky, and the Coens putting out classics or near classics and they end up choosing Hooper for a movie that really isn’t interesting cinematically?

  • 8 1-25-2011 at 11:24 am

    mike r. said...

    Sertan, the Academy Awards mean nothing about the quality of a film. The Oscars have very rarely, probably less than 10 times in their history actually picked the best film of the year. I believe TSN will be considered a classic, and is the best film of the year regardless but I’m not stupid. Of course The King’s Speech is the heavy favorite to win Best Picture and likely Best Director, but it will be somewhat embarassing for the Academy when it happens.

  • 9 1-25-2011 at 11:28 am

    cineJAB said...

    Tom Hooper will not win Best Director. If the The King’s Speech wins best picture, I’m pretty positive there will be a split between BP and Director.

    Also: How common is it for two actors to be nominated for Best Actor two years in a row? I think it’s really interesting that Firth and Bridges were the front of two sort of indie vehicles last year, and this time around they are the stars of the two films with the most nominations.

  • 10 1-25-2011 at 11:29 am

    Sawyer said...

    I’m going to stick my neck out for a big surprise. Now that he’s gotten the nomination, I see a big push for John Hawkes to pull the upset over Christian Bale. So sad for Chris Nolan, but if Fincher can still pull out the win, I’ll be happy.

    Predictions:
    Picture: The King’s Speech
    Director: Fincher
    Lead Actor: Firth
    Lead Actress: Portman
    Sup. Actor: Hawkes
    Sup. Actress: Leo
    Orig. Screenplay: The King’s Speech
    Adapted: The Social Network
    Art Direction: The King’s Speech
    Cinematography: Black Swan
    Costume Design: The King’s Speech
    Editing: The King’s Speech
    Makeup: The Wolfman
    Original Song: Tangled
    Original Score: The King’s Speech
    Sound Editing: Inception
    Sound Mixing: Inception
    Visual Effects: Inception

  • 11 1-25-2011 at 11:38 am

    Sawyer said...

    Sertan, of course it won’t change anything, and yes, I think Harvey and the British bloc are the biggest reasons TKS will beat TSN.

    I haven’t seen The King’s Speech yet, but from all accounts it’s a fine film and probably one I will enjoy. But I have been a Fincher fan for a long time, and I wanted TSN to win this award not just because it’s the best nominated film of the year, but also for Zodiac. And for Fight Club. And for Se7en.

  • 12 1-25-2011 at 11:47 am

    John said...

    Hawkes and Ruffalo will split the underdog indie actor vote. No way either one gets even 1/3 of the votes Rush or Bale get. Supporting Actor is a two horse race.

  • 13 1-25-2011 at 11:49 am

    Jackson said...

    I’ve seen all of the films nominated for BP except Winter’s Bone, and although I liked The King’s Speech a lot, it falls, in my opinion, near the bottom of that list. I would love to see The Social Network or Black Swan take BP instead.

  • 14 1-25-2011 at 11:52 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Sean: Thanks. Adjusted.

  • 15 1-25-2011 at 11:54 am

    Heather said...

    Not sure why choosing The King’s Speech for BP would be so bad/embarassing! I loved that movie, and think it’s so interesting/entertaining/funny/moving! And I’d totally love to see Desplat win best score for TKS, since his score for Harry Potter didn’t make the cut, and doing TKS was almost a side project alongside it. TKS for the win!

  • 16 1-25-2011 at 12:39 pm

    daveylow said...

    I don’t see why it would be a huge mistake if the Academy chose The King’s Speech over The Social Network. Obviously many branches in the Academy like it. (Though it boggles my mind that TKS got more nominations than The Return of the King.)

    I am surprised that Inception didn’t get an editing nomination. I thought it was going to win that award. Now I don’t know what film will win that one.

    I know I’m in the minority online in thinking The Social Network was very good, but not great. But several of my friends who work on films didn’t think it was the greatest film ever made either, though we all agree on the cleverness of the script.

    I think best picture could go either way on Oscar night. We’ll find out.

  • 17 1-25-2011 at 12:54 pm

    Cordy said...

    @ Marc

    If Hooper wins best director that will just be sad. I still feel he shouldnt even be in the conversation, let alone have gotten nominated, especially if you look at the other films in the 10. Just going by that he is 8th or 9th, maybe even 10th. He was serviceable but I dont think Hooper can win with a film that looks like it was made for tv (even if that is exactly what the script needed).

  • 18 1-25-2011 at 12:54 pm

    Cordy said...

    ^that was @ Mike

  • 19 1-25-2011 at 1:40 pm

    Kassie said...

    Are Annette’s chances really that bad? That’s a shame – I think what she pulls off in TKAAR is true acting – subtle and engrossing.

  • 20 1-25-2011 at 9:16 pm

    Simone said...

    I saw the King’s Speech today, it’s excellent! An A+! It’s going to win Best Picture. Glad we agree on this Kristopher.

  • 21 1-25-2011 at 9:21 pm

    marketing for fitness said...

    Congratulations to all the Oscar Nominees they all have worked very hard at mastering their craft for all of us to enjoy. I wish them all the best and say ” Thank You All for sharing your Art.”

  • 22 1-25-2011 at 9:57 pm

    Zach said...

    Art Direction is not going to that frumpy-dump King’s Speech just because it’s winning Best Picture. Inception will still sweep the technical categories it’s nominated for. Look at Crash – they can spread it around if they want to.

  • 23 1-26-2011 at 9:26 pm

    Damon Larkins said...

    Ok this is where the B.S. Comes to a halt. The King’s Speech is the traditional Oscar Best Picture nomination, but do you honestly believe that in 2011, this film will reign supreme. Not to mention, the Academy has added younger members such as Dakota Fanning and Michael Cera. Heck, the hosts are relatively young(Hathaway and Franco). In addition let’s take a trip through the last 6 Best Picture winners. Last year, the front runner was The Hurt Locker, it swept several critic awards and WGA and PGA. However, there was still that ridiculous heat between Cameron and his wife of 10 years ago. Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker, which really wasn’t a race at all, hurt locker hurt all the nominees by taking director and picture. Who could forget when Slumdog Millionaire bested Weinstein’s The Reader, Milk, and the curious case of Benjamin button(overrated). It was an independent film that almost didnt get made. The Coen brothers beat a heavy favorite There Will Be Blood, which is definitely more traditional than No Country For Old Men. The Departed beat out four films that scream traditional Oscar feel! Lastly, Crash winning Best Picture truly showed the tradition had been broken, and it is not going to ever be the same! Thank goodness, you know why because the Academy is showing that the film they believe is the Best Picture is the one that stands out above the rest. This year that film is The Social Network, in the eyes of the critics, in the eyes of the fans that witnessed this triumph, and lastly in the Academy’s eyes because it is a timely feature. The King’s Speech has two awards that are locks: actor, and Best original screenplay. Throw in a Best Costume Design and Art Direction and that’s it. Sure it has 12 nominations, but there have been films that fared sadly such as Gangs Of New York, The Aviator, and The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button. I’ll go even further by pointing out that the last 6 Best Picture winners had roughly 8-9 nominations and won half of their awards. The Social Network has 8, the same as No Country For Old Men, and Slumdog Millionaire. In my mind based on Oscar history, TSN will win Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Sound, Best Score. Which would mean it would win at least half of Their nominations. One last point that stresses why TSN will win Feb 27th is that, if we look back at Oscar history, 8/10 of this years nominees for Best Picture have similar story lines to past Best Picture winners. An Academy member would be sitting down voting, and The Fighter would be lower because they already have a Rocky in their archive. There are plenty western Best Picture winners. The Kings speech is Britain based, how about Chariots of Fire, Tom Jones, or Shakespeare in Love. Science Fiction has not made it in the Best Picture fame, and that is not changing with Inception. The Kids are Alright is reminiscent of family fis such as Terms of Endearment. 127 Hours is different, but how about rain man, and Forest Gump and how it was focused on one man and their journey through everyday situations with a handicap. Toy Story 3 is animated, and even after 83 years, it still has no chance. Winters Bone, Black Swan, and The Social Network are the three that stand out. However, Black Swan not getting a nom for Best Original Screenplay weakens their chance for such a stunning piece of film. Winters Bone is too small, and has not won any major predecessors. Leaving one film on top: The Social Network. It is not my favorite film of the year, it is behind Black Swan, the more you watch TSN the more it grows on you. The Academy has changed tradition and the Social Network fits the boot! A PGA win by The Kings Speech won’t hack into the Social Networks web of success! ~Movie Guy Out~

  • 24 1-29-2011 at 8:02 am

    Pauley said...

    While black swan would be my preference for a sweep (as it’s the best film I’ve seen in quite a while), The Social Network would be second to this. While I enjoyed The Kings Speech immensely, It didn’t have the lingering impact of Swan or Network. I found I liked TKS less on subsequent viewings and BS and TSN more. I would be perfectly happy for it to win all the acting nominations, but would prefer Adams in S Actress.

    I have a feeling it will be a split between TKS TSN with Fincher taking director, but I don’t think TKS will stand the test of time list TSN will.

    I want Hailee to win if Adams doesn’t because it would be nice to see some young blood get in for the first time in a while.

  • 25 1-29-2011 at 3:44 pm

    Leone said...

    Social Network takes screenplay and score. Fighter wins picture, bale, Leo. The King’s Speech wins director and original screenplay and Firth. Calling the upset now.