I don’t know about everyone else, but I’m having a tough time with predicting Supporting Actress and Original Score this year.
Sam C.
Documentary, as always deciding between hype and what’s actually good is hard to pick which 5 the branch will select.
Typically, Best Song is a crapshoot.
But currently, Best Costume is driving me nuts.
Sam C.
Also Makeup. Sure they’ll be a surprise…but will it be True Grit, The Fighter, Jonah Hex, more inspired choice like Barney’s Version? Is Rick Baker as safe as we think?
eurocheese
Can we combine Actress/Supporting Actress? Because it seems like too many of the contenders (Hailee Steinfeld, Julianne Moore, Lesley Manville) could go either way.
anon
To clarify is this for NOMINEES or eventual winner?
For Nominees – the last slots for Supporting Actress, the 5th slot for Costumes, and as usual, Score and Song.
For the Win – Editing (Inception or TSN). I’d assume TSN for now.
Hero
Frankly, I do well enough predicting winners, but I suck something awful at predicting nominees. I just gave it up as a bad job a few years ago. I simply can’t do it.
The screenplays. All top 11 candidates look likely and worthy to get a nod, but which of them is getting a snub over what? It’s a Sophie’s choice :(
geoff
supporting actress
original screenplay
cinematography
original score
foreign language film
Joe7827
Supporting Actress, easily. I think up to 11 contenders for the five spots (and with Manville/Steinfeld going either way). Also, Original Screenplay. There’s so many options for a surprise fifth slot.
Jacob S.
Screenplays. There are a couple of locks in each but beyond that… who knows.
cineJAB
Best Actress, hands down.
Other than Portman and Bening, there are no real locks. Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence, Michelle Williams, Julianne Moore, Hailee Steinfeld, Lesley Manville, Noomi Rapace, and even the Swank could all totally get in here.
Best Supporting Actress might be a tougher call for the win, but there are at least 3 real locks for nominees there.
Ibbs
Supporting Actress
monkey
I would say all of them because we don’t know what the academy like and nominate.
Supporting Actress and Original Score. Supporting actress especially because it seems like every other week Steinfeld and Manville are labeled as something different.
Bob Burns
cinematography. the ASC noms are tracking the BP front runners much more than usual…. you don’t know if the branch will revert to form or agree with ASC.
Fra
Definitely Supporting Actress. I have a feeling we may be in for one or two surprises there. It’s certainly the most contentious.
Samuel
I assume we’re talking major categories right? Cause, you know, animated short is pretty difficult.
Seriously though, both actress categories are the toughest.
Kel
Best Lead Actress and the Short Films
al b.
The music awards are always unpredictable, so yeah I’m going with Original Score and Original Song, as well as Supporting Actress.
Jake D
Sound Mixing- there’s only one definite nominee IMO (Inception).
all the Acting categories have either a 4th and 5th slot that is questionable…
Bill Melidoneas
Hardest category hands down is Adapted Screenplay (oh, wait no! 127 Hours, TSN, TS3, True Grit and Winter’s Bone are 5 dead locks).
Of course it’s L. Actress / S. Actress. Does Steinfeld go lead? Manville supporting? Can two Supporting’s from Black Swan get in? Are both Fighter supporting actresses locks? How realistic are Hilary Swank’s chances?
Nominee wise, I would have to say the final spot for Actor, Supp Actress, and Animated.
DylanS
How about Cinematography. Previous winners like Dod Mantle and Richardson can never be counted out.
Ben
Other than the obvious (Shorts, etc.), I’d say S. Actress because of category confusion in a couple cases (nominated in lead or supporting? Or could splitting leave Hailee off the nominee list altogether?!?).
Supporting Actress. Although I don’t think Supporting Actor is as easy as it might seem. I don’t think Renner is safe to bet on and Garfield, Hawkes, Damon and a few other surprises could easily jump in.
Best Actress and Supporting Actress, both could go in so many ways due to the whole Lesley Manville/Halle Steinfeld category confusion.
darklayers
Hmm. Supporting Actress may not be that difficult given the overlap between SAG and the Globes. In terms of music, song is challenging, but one of the key questions is whether the music branch will go for TSN.
I’d say Original Screenplay and the animated slot #3.
I would say both sound categories, specially Sound Mixing. These last few years some movies that no one predicted ended up being nomed and even winning.
Mixing is tough as there are no decent musicals or decent music focused films this year.
Original Score has a couple of spots difficult to predict.
Original Song can be from 2 to 5 songs so who knows…
Andy
Supporting Actress is all over the map this year.
I’d also thrown in Original Score and Costume Design as hard-to-pick categories.
E
I would say Best Animated?
I think we all know How To Train Your Dragon and Toy Story 3 are pretty well set (at least they better be), although the third place could go to one of the following:
The Illusionist
Tangled
Despicable Me
It really does depend. If Tangled is nominated, it would be like ’08 with Disney, DreamWorks, and Pixar getting the noms.
But The Illusionist is from the same people who made Triplets of Belleville, and it’s style stands out from the pack.
Then, there’s Despicable Me. Surprisingly good, and well received.
Best Actress. The question of where Steinfeld will wind up makes this one hard to predict. The vulnerability of Kidman makes it hard to predict. The question of Manville as a contender, and in which category, makes it hard to predict. Whether or not Julianne Moore is a contender…Whether or not Michelle Willams is a contender….
Matthias Zucker
As always, the short films – which is why I love these two (well, three) categories best of all.
In the major categories, certainly not BP and Director. I find myself going back and forth over two of five slots in supporting actress. (But we had that poll already.) Indeed, as some have pointed out, Best Actress has its difficulties this year: Hilary Swank coming from out of nowhere for the SAG nomination. Michelle Williams deserving it so much and occasionally popping up for nods. The Steinfeld/Manville category confusion. And, yes, the fact that no one seems to be talking about Kidman anymore.
Still, I’d say Original Song. Notoriously difficult to say with the branch’s complicated rules. And knowing that for the past few years, perceived frontrunners have missed the cut (The Wrestler) while certain others came out of nowhere (Loin de Paname), anything is possible and here’s where I’m hoping to see some suprises Tuesday. With which I mean “Me and Tennessee”.
Graysmith
Original Song because it’s such a crappy year for songs. Outside of one or two tracks it feels like it could be any of the eligible songs.
Or Original Score, simply because that branch is so idiosyncratic and random. Just remember the shock nominations for the likes of The Hurt Locker, Michael Clayton and The Village, to name a few. And speaking of the latter, it wouldn’t be too terribly shocking if James Newton Howard’s well-received score for The Last Airbender pulled and upset.. But would anyone dare to predict it?
Edwin Drood
Original screenplay. Although many think this category is done I see the potential for at least two “surprise” nominees (and two corresponding “snubs”) here. Supporting actress and adapted screenplay seem particularly fluid as well. Actually, given the virtual unanimity of the precursors in certain categories (art direction, for example) I think we’re in for a number of snubs and surprises as the Academy is (I hope) unlikely to follow in lock-step with the organizations which have preceded them…
Roger
I would say for nominations Actress might be as hard as sup actress… there are a lot of contender for the 5th spot in both but if u look at the 4locks i think sup is way more locked… But then again there is the category controversy… everybody agrees Hailee Steinfeld should be nominated but there;s no agreement on where… So yeah… Actress and Sup Actress are the hardest to predict… And Original Score! What do you think Kris??
Comments
70 responses to “What is the most difficult category to predict this year?”
I don’t know about everyone else, but I’m having a tough time with predicting Supporting Actress and Original Score this year.
Documentary, as always deciding between hype and what’s actually good is hard to pick which 5 the branch will select.
Typically, Best Song is a crapshoot.
But currently, Best Costume is driving me nuts.
Also Makeup. Sure they’ll be a surprise…but will it be True Grit, The Fighter, Jonah Hex, more inspired choice like Barney’s Version? Is Rick Baker as safe as we think?
Can we combine Actress/Supporting Actress? Because it seems like too many of the contenders (Hailee Steinfeld, Julianne Moore, Lesley Manville) could go either way.
To clarify is this for NOMINEES or eventual winner?
Nominees.
For Nominees – the last slots for Supporting Actress, the 5th slot for Costumes, and as usual, Score and Song.
For the Win – Editing (Inception or TSN). I’d assume TSN for now.
Frankly, I do well enough predicting winners, but I suck something awful at predicting nominees. I just gave it up as a bad job a few years ago. I simply can’t do it.
The screenplays. All top 11 candidates look likely and worthy to get a nod, but which of them is getting a snub over what? It’s a Sophie’s choice :(
supporting actress
original screenplay
cinematography
original score
foreign language film
Supporting Actress, easily. I think up to 11 contenders for the five spots (and with Manville/Steinfeld going either way). Also, Original Screenplay. There’s so many options for a surprise fifth slot.
Screenplays. There are a couple of locks in each but beyond that… who knows.
Best Actress, hands down.
Other than Portman and Bening, there are no real locks. Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence, Michelle Williams, Julianne Moore, Hailee Steinfeld, Lesley Manville, Noomi Rapace, and even the Swank could all totally get in here.
Best Supporting Actress might be a tougher call for the win, but there are at least 3 real locks for nominees there.
Supporting Actress
I would say all of them because we don’t know what the academy like and nominate.
Doc and Supp Actress
Remembering that song from Paris 36 that got nominated out of the blue last year, I would say songs.
Supporting Actress and Original Score. Supporting actress especially because it seems like every other week Steinfeld and Manville are labeled as something different.
cinematography. the ASC noms are tracking the BP front runners much more than usual…. you don’t know if the branch will revert to form or agree with ASC.
Definitely Supporting Actress. I have a feeling we may be in for one or two surprises there. It’s certainly the most contentious.
I assume we’re talking major categories right? Cause, you know, animated short is pretty difficult.
Seriously though, both actress categories are the toughest.
Best Lead Actress and the Short Films
The music awards are always unpredictable, so yeah I’m going with Original Score and Original Song, as well as Supporting Actress.
Sound Mixing- there’s only one definite nominee IMO (Inception).
Original Score and Supporting Actress!!!
Supporting Actress, Actress.
all the Acting categories have either a 4th and 5th slot that is questionable…
Hardest category hands down is Adapted Screenplay (oh, wait no! 127 Hours, TSN, TS3, True Grit and Winter’s Bone are 5 dead locks).
Of course it’s L. Actress / S. Actress. Does Steinfeld go lead? Manville supporting? Can two Supporting’s from Black Swan get in? Are both Fighter supporting actresses locks? How realistic are Hilary Swank’s chances?
id say sup actress and art direction.
Nominee wise, I would have to say the final spot for Actor, Supp Actress, and Animated.
How about Cinematography. Previous winners like Dod Mantle and Richardson can never be counted out.
Other than the obvious (Shorts, etc.), I’d say S. Actress because of category confusion in a couple cases (nominated in lead or supporting? Or could splitting leave Hailee off the nominee list altogether?!?).
The sound categories.
Supporting Actress. Although I don’t think Supporting Actor is as easy as it might seem. I don’t think Renner is safe to bet on and Garfield, Hawkes, Damon and a few other surprises could easily jump in.
Best Actress and Supporting Actress, both could go in so many ways due to the whole Lesley Manville/Halle Steinfeld category confusion.
Hmm. Supporting Actress may not be that difficult given the overlap between SAG and the Globes. In terms of music, song is challenging, but one of the key questions is whether the music branch will go for TSN.
I’d say Original Screenplay and the animated slot #3.
both actress categories, specially supporting
I would say both sound categories, specially Sound Mixing. These last few years some movies that no one predicted ended up being nomed and even winning.
Mixing is tough as there are no decent musicals or decent music focused films this year.
Original Score has a couple of spots difficult to predict.
Original Song can be from 2 to 5 songs so who knows…
Supporting Actress is all over the map this year.
I’d also thrown in Original Score and Costume Design as hard-to-pick categories.
I would say Best Animated?
I think we all know How To Train Your Dragon and Toy Story 3 are pretty well set (at least they better be), although the third place could go to one of the following:
The Illusionist
Tangled
Despicable Me
It really does depend. If Tangled is nominated, it would be like ’08 with Disney, DreamWorks, and Pixar getting the noms.
But The Illusionist is from the same people who made Triplets of Belleville, and it’s style stands out from the pack.
Then, there’s Despicable Me. Surprisingly good, and well received.
Interesting question.
Song and Sound
for nominees,
ORIGINAL SONG
and the 3rd ANIMATED nominee…
Actress (Swank, Williams, Steinfield, Kidman, Manville)
and supporting actress (Hershey, Richardson, Kunis, Weaver, Steinfield, Manville, etc)
Best Actress. The question of where Steinfeld will wind up makes this one hard to predict. The vulnerability of Kidman makes it hard to predict. The question of Manville as a contender, and in which category, makes it hard to predict. Whether or not Julianne Moore is a contender…Whether or not Michelle Willams is a contender….
As always, the short films – which is why I love these two (well, three) categories best of all.
In the major categories, certainly not BP and Director. I find myself going back and forth over two of five slots in supporting actress. (But we had that poll already.) Indeed, as some have pointed out, Best Actress has its difficulties this year: Hilary Swank coming from out of nowhere for the SAG nomination. Michelle Williams deserving it so much and occasionally popping up for nods. The Steinfeld/Manville category confusion. And, yes, the fact that no one seems to be talking about Kidman anymore.
Still, I’d say Original Song. Notoriously difficult to say with the branch’s complicated rules. And knowing that for the past few years, perceived frontrunners have missed the cut (The Wrestler) while certain others came out of nowhere (Loin de Paname), anything is possible and here’s where I’m hoping to see some suprises Tuesday. With which I mean “Me and Tennessee”.
Original Song because it’s such a crappy year for songs. Outside of one or two tracks it feels like it could be any of the eligible songs.
Or Original Score, simply because that branch is so idiosyncratic and random. Just remember the shock nominations for the likes of The Hurt Locker, Michael Clayton and The Village, to name a few. And speaking of the latter, it wouldn’t be too terribly shocking if James Newton Howard’s well-received score for The Last Airbender pulled and upset.. But would anyone dare to predict it?
Original screenplay. Although many think this category is done I see the potential for at least two “surprise” nominees (and two corresponding “snubs”) here. Supporting actress and adapted screenplay seem particularly fluid as well. Actually, given the virtual unanimity of the precursors in certain categories (art direction, for example) I think we’re in for a number of snubs and surprises as the Academy is (I hope) unlikely to follow in lock-step with the organizations which have preceded them…
I would say for nominations Actress might be as hard as sup actress… there are a lot of contender for the 5th spot in both but if u look at the 4locks i think sup is way more locked… But then again there is the category controversy… everybody agrees Hailee Steinfeld should be nominated but there;s no agreement on where… So yeah… Actress and Sup Actress are the hardest to predict… And Original Score! What do you think Kris??
Best Supporting Actor
Documentaries, as well as Supporting Actress.