One of the interesting things about this morning’s BAFTA announcement is that it scattered the already fluid Best Supporting Actress category to the winds. Nominations for Barbara Hershey, Miranda Richardson and Lesley Manville put them in the hunt with contenders like Mila Kunis and Jacki Weaver for what appears to be an up-for-grabs fifth slot.
Anne and I will probably address this at length in Friday’s final pre-nods Oscar Talk, but it seemed a good bet for a poll update as well. Surprises happen. And you risk being crazy to think outside-the-box (as in, last year, when everyone thought I was out to lunch for thinking Maggie Gyllenhaal had a chance).
In the left sidebar, I’ve listed the five competitors that seem most likely to battle it out for a chance to join Melissa Leo, Amy Adams, Helena Bonham Carter and Hailee Steinfeld (who herself could suddenly fall lead) in the Best Supporting Actress category this year, as well as the NSFC-winning Olivia Williams and an obligatory “other” option thrown in. Chalk up your vote there and head on back here for your reasoning and hopefully we’ll get some good discussion out of all of this.
[Photo: Sony Pictures Classics]
Comments
66 responses to “POLL: Who gets the fifth supporting actress slot?”
Hershey’s BAFTA mention might not be as good news for her as it is bad news for both Kunis and her, neither of whom were that safe to begin with and could very well split to neither making it (I expect that to happen with Leo and Adams, but they’re so safe that it would just harm their chances for a win). And then I think Hailee Steinfeld’s ripe to grab that fifth Actress slot. Right now my predictions are Adams, Carter, Leo, Manville, Weaver.
I would love for it to be Richardson, only because Manville belongs in lead. But I have a feeling it will be Kunis, as the Academy loves those hot young things.
i still feel people will vote for hershey i have all year i also feel hailee will be snubbed,bafta put more faith in 5th spot best actress up for grabs by anyone williams,swank,moore,manville or rapace could get it.
If it’s HBC, Steinfeld, Leo and Adams, then it’s Kunis.
But since I’m hoping for Steinfeld to get lead actress instead, I’d say Kunis gets the fourth slot, and Weaver gets the fifth. So there.
Yeah, I think all this category drama will lead to a complete Steinfeld snub, which is a shame. The last two years, if you’ve gotten a Globe and a SAG nod, then you’re good, and I might be completely off on this, but I think Cameron Diaz is the only person to get snubbed after a CC, GG, and SAG nom, so I think Mila Kunis is fine for now.
I think Steinfeld will get the 5th lead slot. So I have my money on Jacki Weaver and Julianne Moore as a complete shocker.
They don’t have to vote for her in lead, so who knows? It could just work that way. And if it does, I’ll be the only person to have predicted it. :)
what’s Bafta’s real influence here?
the voting for the nominees has already taken place.
the safe version would be:
Adams
Leo
Helena
Hailee
+ Mila Kunis.
the wacky one:
Adams
Leo
Helena
+ Lesley Manville
+ Jacki Weaver
depending on how much love there is for Black Swan and if voters are willing to move Hailee to Best Actress. These are the 2 important factors, in my opinion.
I think Mila Kunis is in, given the widespread ubiquity and popularity of Black Swan.
For the fifth spot I still have Steinfeld, although the closer it gets to nominations, the more plausible it seems she’ll get delegated to Lead.
I think Jacki Weaver actually might end up taking that fifth slot. Or maybe someone wayyy out of left field, like say Dianne Wiest???
I voted Mila Kunis. I honestly think that Steinfeld will split enough votes between Lead and Supporting to cancel herself out, so technically I’m thinking that Barbara Hershey gets the fifth slot, while Kunis gets the fourth.
Alex: You miss the point. It’s not about influence. It’s about being indicative of currents we might not necessarily have noticed.
I think Leo, Adams, and HBC are pretty safe.
2 slots between these women:
Manville (she seems the surest bet right now what with all the “she’s being robbed” talk, and BAFTA going for her in Supporting).
Kunis (I would think she’s 5th, but clinging on; I can’t help but think that there is a faction of AMPAS – not even BAFTA members – who prefer Hershey to Kunis. But maybe both Black Swan women will cancel each other out).
Steinfeld (a lot of people are going to vote her Lead. I don’t think she’s as sure a bet for a nom as she was some time ago).
Weaver (BFCA and GG is nice, but it’s not SAG or BAFTA. She’s a true wild card).
Richardson (it would be nice, but I think Manville steals the other British spot that HBC already seems to have).
Those are my thoughts for right now. I’ll go out on a limb and say: Leo, Adams, HBC, Manville, Hershey. Adams winning.
“I voted Mila Kunis. I honestly think that Steinfeld will split enough votes between Lead and Supporting to cancel herself out, so technically I’m thinking that Barbara Hershey gets the fifth slot, while Kunis gets the fourth.”
Hmmm. That would mean that the category has two instances of two actresses from the same movie getting in. I’m not sure about that.
I voted Weaver, but I think it could go a lot of different ways.
Assuming HBC, Leo, Adams and Steinfeld are in, I would say Weaver has the best shot, since everyone else has something against them: split between Kunis and Hershey, category confusion for Maville. The one that could get in as a complete shocker is Olivia Williams. And I still have hope the Academy will refuse to recognize Bonham-Carter’s two-dimentional performance and Steinfeld’s category fraud.
My bet on the ladies:
Actress – Bening/Portman/Lawrence/Kidman/Steinfeld (RU: Moore)
S. Actress – Adams/Carter/Leo/Kunis/Hershey (RU: Steinfeld if she misses Lead)
Steinfeld could entirely miss, in which case I’m betting heavily on BAFTA’s picks. Manville could pop up in either category. I’m not buying Williams, Swank (never discount a SAG nominee completely), Berry or Rapace for Lead – they just don’t seem to have the momentum. Weaver may still make Supporting, but it looks pretty iffy now.
I hardly think Steinfeld is safe, considering the category confusion. And, call me crazy, I just can’t imagine WHO is putting Helena Bonham Carter at the top of their ballot. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say:
Leo
Adams
Kunis
Weaver
Steinfeld
In other words: I think Kunis & Hershey are teetering with Manville & Steinfeld in the 4th-7th. And I think Weaver is a close 8th, Richardson 9th, & Olivia Williams would be my guess for 10th.
Derek, that would be my perfect line-up. And maybe Steinfeld makes it in Best Actress and Olivia Williams takes her place in Best Supp. Actress.
(sigh) I like how we are all trying to craft the perfect scenario in which all our favorite ladies get in. The fact of the matter is that there was just an embarrassment of riches among female performances this year, and it’ll be a damn shame whoever gets left out (especially if something like The Swank gets in).
My Prediction: Steinfeld’s public is divided amongst Actress and Supporting Actress; she’ll get in for Lead alongside Bening, Kidman, Lawrence, and Portman, but supporting will be:
Amy Adams
Helena Bonham Carter
Mila Kunis
Melissa Leo
Jacki Weaver
I’ll go out on a limb and say it’s Amy Adams, Mila Kunis, Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld, and Jacki Weaver for supporting, with Manville, Moore, and Williams battling it out for the final lead slot.
Kris,
currents of what? :) of what some unknown British actor who’s not a member of AMPAS thinks? :)
they could’ve affected the race only by putting a light on someone and it’s too late. other than that, what could they have in common with Oscar.
we knew Hailee might move to lead, who knew Lesley also had a chance in supporting – and we didn’t need Bafta to point that out.
for the rest, something like Miranda Richardson or Barbara Hershey, they can fall in the Tilda Swinton (for Burn After Reading), respectively Freida Pinto (for Slumdog) category and what they meant (nothing) for the actual Oscar race.
“Alex: You miss the point. It’s not about influence. It’s about being indicative of currents we might not necessarily have noticed.”
“Currents of what? ”
BAFTAs are indicative of something that’s directly related to AMPAS, more specifically the way the British block might vote and what chiefly British talent it may offer a boost to. Looking at it under this angle is probably more accurate then to seek out all encompassing trends in what is largely a very different orgnaization.
Contenders:
Adams- (Lock)
Leo – (Lock)
Weaver – (Lock) – only missed one major award group. First screener sent out, major campaigning for her, she’s had a huge presence on the circuit, has many passionate supporters)
Bonham-Carter – (Likely) – she’s been nominated by almost every major voting body and is on the coattails of a favorite film of Oscar, however, she’s got 2 things against her: Oscar has ignored her for much worthier performances in the past, and her performance isn’t remarkable at all in the film. She was deemed as the only true contender in this race at first, and I feel as if she’s only been included in contention is due to early pundits hailing her as the only woman in the race, but now that we have actual contenders, she may be pushed out.
Steinfeld – (Likely) – may get bumped up to lead, or Oscar may actually see that her performance, though great for an actress of her age, is definitely nomination worthy.
Kunis – (Likely) – young, sexy contender. Performance in a film that almost every voter will see.
Williams – (Longshot upset) – there has been buzz screaming for her to get nominated all season, and that NSFC nom could help. However, I feel as if the fear all season has been due to Roman Polanski… but maybe that’s just me…
Overall, I expect:
Adams
Leo
Weaver
Bonham-Carter
Kunis
(I feel as if the confusion for Steinfeld’s category placement will ultimately put her out in this category. However, if she does get nom’d I see Kunis getting the boot.)
Alex: BAFTA was the first, I believe, to put Winslet in lead for The Reader. First I remember seeing Alan Alda pop up. You can find signs sometimes. And what Maxim said.
But you still miss the point. You seem to think I mean the vote can influence the race, which obviously it can’t, because AMPAS ballots are in. But there is a cross-over block of voters and it’s an industry group so it can illuminate things that we sometimes don’t see coming.
Not sure how to make it any clearer.
I’m with Derek and Eli, unless category confusion ruins things for Steinfeld I could see Carter missing out: Steinfeld, Leo, Adams, Kunis, Weaver.
I’m getting an increasingly strong hunch that Steinfeld lands that shaky fifth Best Actress spot, allowing room for both Jacki Weaver and … Mila Kunis?
I keep wondering if Barbara Hershey is this year’s Alan Alda, so to speak — the veteran supporting player from a major Best Picture player that only BAFTA stumps for on the way to an Oscar nod.
Could we wind up with two sets of twin nominees from the same film? If voters really are watching as few movies as the precursors suggest they are, it strikes me as a distinct possibility.
That’s a good point, Guy. Since Black Swan and The Fighter are being seen & championed SO much … the lazy voters in AMPAS who “won’t” see as much as they shuld could very well write down Kunis & Hershey. Very interesting.
Remember during the summer when a number of people were claiming Marion Cotillard was a lock for “Inception”? I always thought her role was too one-note (albeit one hysterical note). I kind of feel the same about Barbara Hershey’s role. Cotillard and Hershey are both fine actresses, but Mila Kunis was simply more interesting and showed a bit more range. (Now that I say this, watch Marion Cotillard come from nowhere and be nominated.)
Amy Adams
Melissa Leo
Helena Bonham Carter
Mila Kunis
Jacki Weaver
Steinfeld will be in Best Actress.
The only people claiming Marion Cotillard was a “lock” for Inception were especially rabid fans of the film.
And here I always thought Cotillard was the “key” to Inception ;) …
BAFTA members constitute 17-18% of the AMPAS…that´s a pretty strong indicator of steinfeld going to take a best actress slot. 17-18% in most cases is a reliable focal point, even though where not talking traditional polls here.
That means the five nominees for supp actress could be this line-up: leo-adams-bonham carter (undeserved, to say the least, but there you go…)-weaver-manville. I predict kunis-hershey in sixth and seventh spot, a shame for the BS team, so close, but no cigar!
marion cotillard…? be real…
I’m gonna’ echo Guy’s sentiments early this year and say Emma Stone should be considered, though I am very skeptical of that happening.
I’m gonna go way out on a limb here and say that Lawrence and Steinfeld are struggling for that “new great actress on the horizon” spot. I’m sorry, but with all the wealth of talent and all the good feelings toward many of the “almost” nominees this year, I can’t believe the Academy is going to nominate 2 “unknown” “1st time” actresses for Best Actress. Help me – is there a precedent in RECENT years?
I think Portman and Bening are absolute locks. I hope Kidman is – She did one from the heart and made it happen and was quite good and very real (and her forehead moved all over the place). Then we’ve got Lawrence who everyone online is now treating like an oldhand at this stuff. Yes – she’s been included in every party so far but let’s not forget – people think of the Oscars as really special. Don’t get me wrong, I still think she’s going to get nominated but I think that that will leave Steinfeld out of BA. And, please God, let them acknowledge Moore along with Bening. If not, then give it to Michelle Williams (who does still have some sympathy in the biz over her loss and was “robbed” a few years ago of a worthy nomination). Watching the Globes and seeing how Bening acknowledged Moore and how Moore had so much to do with making KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT happen, I think she may actually have the edge in AMPAS when it comes right down to it (plus she is the most “due” actress of the lot). So I’m going with:
Bening
Kidman
Lawrence
Moore
Portman (Williams as alt)
I’ve thought from the very beginning that Sup Actress was the PERFECT place for Manville. And now that her own countrymen have put her in that spot, I think the odds are high that she will be there for the Oscars. So Leo, Adams, Manville, and…hmmm – Helena Bonham Carter? I’m not so sure. If KING’S SPEECH was plowing through and WINNING with the critics and the guilds, I’d think she’d ride her way right in but now…as we see KING’S SPEECH fall to 3rd or 4th on the Best Pic list – I think Carter may fall off altogether. With regards to Kunis…yes, the Academy does like pretty young things but my gut tells me that Adams more than covers that spot in Sup Actress and Kunis just recently left TV sitcom land so I just think she’s gonna have to earn a few more stripes before they invite her to the biggest party of them all. It would be silly to forget that Weist is a master and was quite good in RABBIT HOLE (but she’s also a two time winner already) so I think her nomination will depend on how much AMPAS wants to acknowledge Nicole’s movie (which may be more than we think right now). But, something tells me that Hershey has a better chance of getting the old pro spot rather than Weist – partly because BLACK SWAN is the more popular film and partly because Hershey is an old pro who has only ever been nominated once. So, for me, it comes down to Steinfeld vs Weaver for the fifth slot. I just don’t know how much Weaver has been able to charm the Academy over the past few months so I’m leaning toward Steinfeld (who is charming simply by being so young, so poised, and so appealing in her film) So my guess is:
Adams
Hershey
Leo
Manville
Steinfeld
Both lists “feel” right to me – with surprises and a nice mix of “peripheral” actresses and stars.
OK – the only actress that could even remotely be labeled as peripheral in BA is Lawrence. I understand.
I’m starting to feel like Jacki Weaver is pretty much a lock at this point. Those screeners have done the trick.
#5: Kunis, the pretty one.
All i know is if Manville doesn’t get nominated than clearly nobody saw Another Year. It was the most devastating supporting performance of the year and the only thing i really loved about the movie.
McAllister: Says who?
Guy – What do ya think of the possibility of Steinfeld splitting her votes between Lead and Supporting and missing out on both. I see it as a real possibility at this point.
“I’m sorry, but with all the wealth of talent and all the good feelings toward many of the “almost” nominees this year, I can’t believe the Academy is going to nominate 2 “unknown” “1st time” actresses for Best Actress. Help me – is there a precedent in RECENT years?”
How about Carey Mulligan and Gabby Sidibe? I’m sorry, but if I was going on such a long rant, I’d check my facts first.
I think Adams, Bonham-Carter, and Leo are LOCKED for a nomination…
I don’t think Steinfeld will get through because of split voting well it depends if the Academy loves True Grit… If they did then Steinfeld is in but for me 4th and 5th slot is still open….
Possible nominee is Kunis for the momentum of Black Swan in every precursor…. Then Weaver still for precursor results…. Though I’m quite skeptical….
I would love to see Manville.. Maybe she’s the “Maggie Gylenhaal” of this year..
Or Diane Weist…. But I think people have forgotten her performance in Rabbit Hole…
On Steinfeld … I may be wrong, but …
I feel like Kidman has too much going for her to miss: comeback nom, producing the film, labor of love, memorable performance, nommed at SAG, and voting for noms may have been right before box office for Rabbit Hole started stalling.
Meanwhile, I think Michelle Williams is the real one vying for the 5th with Steinfeld. Williams was devastatingly good, and has some precursors, but no SAG or BAFTA; and it’s another small film.
Given that, I think Steinfeld still “might” miss out on both Lead or Supporting with the category confusion; not to mention True Grit being a bit late to the party.
I wonder if it’s such a crapshoot that someone totally from left field can sneak in, like Wiest or Mara (in which case, Social Network sweeps).
I can see Steinfeld category splitting into no nomination, I can see Hershey and Kunis splitting (hell, maybe even Ryder stealing a few votes, who was on the Bafta long list).
I would prefer Hershey over Kunis any day, she was very effective and never over the top! The other day I was thinking why Mia Wasikowska didn’t gain any traction in this category for her work in The Kids Are All Right. She hold her own against two great actresses and gave a quiet, but heartfelt performance!
Hey Chris – thanks for the reminder.
By the way – you should look up the definition of “rant”. I’d say mine was more of a long-winded vomit.
And there is NO way either Lawrence’s or Steinfeld’s performance even Sidibe’s performance last year so your example doesn’t really work for me anyway.
I should have said “2 unknown, 1st time” actresses who do NOT give once in a lifetime, powerhouse performances. Sorry neither Lawrence or Steinfeld qualify with that criteria in mind so please search again.
Damn – if I’m going to try to respond I should at least check my typing…
I meant “either Lawrence’s or Steinfeld’s performance comes even close to Sidibe’s performance last year”.
Ah well
Lead:
Portman *lock
Bening *lock
Lawrence
Williams
Kidman
If Swank get’s in over Michelle Williams…
Supporting:
Leo
Kunis
Steinfeld
Adams
Bonham Carter
honestly i think Best Supporting actress is more locked up than Best Actress overall, other than frontrunner status.
It’s totally out of left field but what about Michelle Williams in Shutter Island? I know the movie hasn’t showed up anywhere but it is still a Scorsese film and Williams stole the show every time she was on screen.