66 responses so far

• 1 1-18-2011 at 11:29 am
  
  Ibbs said...

  Hershey’s BAFTA mention might not be as good news for her as it is bad news for both Kunis and her, neither of whom were that safe to begin with and could very well split to neither making it (I expect that to happen with Leo and Adams, but they’re so safe that it would just harm their chances for a win). And then I think Hailee Steinfeld’s ripe to grab that fifth Actress slot. Right now my predictions are Adams, Carter, Leo, Manville, Weaver.

• 2 1-18-2011 at 11:34 am
  
  Collin said...

  I would love for it to be Richardson, only because Manville belongs in lead. But I have a feeling it will be Kunis, as the Academy loves those hot young things.

• 3 1-18-2011 at 11:35 am
  
  mark said...

  i still feel people will vote for hershey i have all year i also feel hailee will be snubbed,bafta put more faith in 5th spot best actress up for grabs by anyone williams,swank,moore,manville or rapace could get it.

• 4 1-18-2011 at 11:37 am
  
  Andrej said...

  If it’s HBC, Steinfeld, Leo and Adams, then it’s Kunis.

  But since I’m hoping for Steinfeld to get lead actress instead, I’d say Kunis gets the fourth slot, and Weaver gets the fifth. So there.

• 5 1-18-2011 at 11:39 am
  
  Hans said...

  Yeah, I think all this category drama will lead to a complete Steinfeld snub, which is a shame. The last two years, if you’ve gotten a Globe and a SAG nod, then you’re good, and I might be completely off on this, but I think Cameron Diaz is the only person to get snubbed after a CC, GG, and SAG nom, so I think Mila Kunis is fine for now.

• 6 1-18-2011 at 11:42 am
  
  Chris said...

  I think Steinfeld will get the 5th lead slot. So I have my money on Jacki Weaver and Julianne Moore as a complete shocker.

  They don’t have to vote for her in lead, so who knows? It could just work that way. And if it does, I’ll be the only person to have predicted it. :)

• 7 1-18-2011 at 11:42 am
  
  Alex in Movieland said...

  what’s Bafta’s real influence here?
  the voting for the nominees has already taken place.

  the safe version would be:
  Adams
  Leo
  Helena
  Hailee
  + Mila Kunis.

  the wacky one:
  Adams
  Leo
  Helena
  + Lesley Manville
  + Jacki Weaver

  depending on how much love there is for Black Swan and if voters are willing to move Hailee to Best Actress. These are the 2 important factors, in my opinion.

• 8 1-18-2011 at 11:44 am
  
  Aaron said...

  I think Mila Kunis is in, given the widespread ubiquity and popularity of Black Swan.

  For the fifth spot I still have Steinfeld, although the closer it gets to nominations, the more plausible it seems she’ll get delegated to Lead.

  I think Jacki Weaver actually might end up taking that fifth slot. Or maybe someone wayyy out of left field, like say Dianne Wiest???

• 9 1-18-2011 at 11:45 am
  
  Julian Stark said...

  I voted Mila Kunis. I honestly think that Steinfeld will split enough votes between Lead and Supporting to cancel herself out, so technically I’m thinking that Barbara Hershey gets the fifth slot, while Kunis gets the fourth.

• 10 1-18-2011 at 11:47 am
  
  Kristopher Tapley said...

  Alex: You miss the point. It’s not about influence. It’s about being indicative of currents we might not necessarily have noticed.

• 11 1-18-2011 at 11:49 am
  
  JJ1 said...

  I think Leo, Adams, and HBC are pretty safe.

  2 slots between these women:

  Manville (she seems the surest bet right now what with all the “she’s being robbed” talk, and BAFTA going for her in Supporting).

  Kunis (I would think she’s 5th, but clinging on; I can’t help but think that there is a faction of AMPAS – not even BAFTA members – who prefer Hershey to Kunis. But maybe both Black Swan women will cancel each other out).

  Steinfeld (a lot of people are going to vote her Lead. I don’t think she’s as sure a bet for a nom as she was some time ago).

  Weaver (BFCA and GG is nice, but it’s not SAG or BAFTA. She’s a true wild card).

  Richardson (it would be nice, but I think Manville steals the other British spot that HBC already seems to have).

  Those are my thoughts for right now. I’ll go out on a limb and say: Leo, Adams, HBC, Manville, Hershey. Adams winning.

• 12 1-18-2011 at 11:52 am
  
  Will said...

  “I voted Mila Kunis. I honestly think that Steinfeld will split enough votes between Lead and Supporting to cancel herself out, so technically I’m thinking that Barbara Hershey gets the fifth slot, while Kunis gets the fourth.”

  Hmmm. That would mean that the category has two instances of two actresses from the same movie getting in. I’m not sure about that.

  I voted Weaver, but I think it could go a lot of different ways.

• 13 1-18-2011 at 11:53 am
  
  tdr said...

  Assuming HBC, Leo, Adams and Steinfeld are in, I would say Weaver has the best shot, since everyone else has something against them: split between Kunis and Hershey, category confusion for Maville. The one that could get in as a complete shocker is Olivia Williams. And I still have hope the Academy will refuse to recognize Bonham-Carter’s two-dimentional performance and Steinfeld’s category fraud.

• 14 1-18-2011 at 11:53 am
  
  eurocheese said...

  My bet on the ladies:

  Actress – Bening/Portman/Lawrence/Kidman/Steinfeld (RU: Moore)

  S. Actress – Adams/Carter/Leo/Kunis/Hershey (RU: Steinfeld if she misses Lead)

  Steinfeld could entirely miss, in which case I’m betting heavily on BAFTA’s picks. Manville could pop up in either category. I’m not buying Williams, Swank (never discount a SAG nominee completely), Berry or Rapace for Lead – they just don’t seem to have the momentum. Weaver may still make Supporting, but it looks pretty iffy now.

• 15 1-18-2011 at 11:53 am
  
  Derek said...

  I hardly think Steinfeld is safe, considering the category confusion. And, call me crazy, I just can’t imagine WHO is putting Helena Bonham Carter at the top of their ballot. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say:

  Leo
  Adams
  Kunis
  Weaver
  Steinfeld

• 16 1-18-2011 at 11:54 am
  
  JJ1 said...

  In other words: I think Kunis & Hershey are teetering with Manville & Steinfeld in the 4th-7th. And I think Weaver is a close 8th, Richardson 9th, & Olivia Williams would be my guess for 10th.

• 17 1-18-2011 at 11:59 am
  
  tdr said...

  Derek, that would be my perfect line-up. And maybe Steinfeld makes it in Best Actress and Olivia Williams takes her place in Best Supp. Actress.

• 18 1-18-2011 at 12:10 pm
  
  Hans said...

  (sigh) I like how we are all trying to craft the perfect scenario in which all our favorite ladies get in. The fact of the matter is that there was just an embarrassment of riches among female performances this year, and it’ll be a damn shame whoever gets left out (especially if something like The Swank gets in).

• 19 1-18-2011 at 12:11 pm
  
  Sean D said...

  My Prediction: Steinfeld’s public is divided amongst Actress and Supporting Actress; she’ll get in for Lead alongside Bening, Kidman, Lawrence, and Portman, but supporting will be:

  Amy Adams
  Helena Bonham Carter
  Mila Kunis
  Melissa Leo
  Jacki Weaver

• 20 1-18-2011 at 12:22 pm
  
  Eli said...

  I’ll go out on a limb and say it’s Amy Adams, Mila Kunis, Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld, and Jacki Weaver for supporting, with Manville, Moore, and Williams battling it out for the final lead slot.

• 21 1-18-2011 at 12:32 pm
  
  Alex in Movieland said...

  Kris,

  currents of what? :) of what some unknown British actor who’s not a member of AMPAS thinks? :)
  they could’ve affected the race only by putting a light on someone and it’s too late. other than that, what could they have in common with Oscar.

  we knew Hailee might move to lead, who knew Lesley also had a chance in supporting – and we didn’t need Bafta to point that out.
  for the rest, something like Miranda Richardson or Barbara Hershey, they can fall in the Tilda Swinton (for Burn After Reading), respectively Freida Pinto (for Slumdog) category and what they meant (nothing) for the actual Oscar race.

• 22 1-18-2011 at 12:38 pm
  
  Maxim said...

  “Alex: You miss the point. It’s not about influence. It’s about being indicative of currents we might not necessarily have noticed.”

  “Currents of what? ”

  BAFTAs are indicative of something that’s directly related to AMPAS, more specifically the way the British block might vote and what chiefly British talent it may offer a boost to. Looking at it under this angle is probably more accurate then to seek out all encompassing trends in what is largely a very different orgnaization.

• 23 1-18-2011 at 12:41 pm
  
  Tyler said...

  Contenders:
  Adams- (Lock)
  Leo – (Lock)
  Weaver – (Lock) – only missed one major award group. First screener sent out, major campaigning for her, she’s had a huge presence on the circuit, has many passionate supporters)
  Bonham-Carter – (Likely) – she’s been nominated by almost every major voting body and is on the coattails of a favorite film of Oscar, however, she’s got 2 things against her: Oscar has ignored her for much worthier performances in the past, and her performance isn’t remarkable at all in the film. She was deemed as the only true contender in this race at first, and I feel as if she’s only been included in contention is due to early pundits hailing her as the only woman in the race, but now that we have actual contenders, she may be pushed out.
  Steinfeld – (Likely) – may get bumped up to lead, or Oscar may actually see that her performance, though great for an actress of her age, is definitely nomination worthy.
  Kunis – (Likely) – young, sexy contender. Performance in a film that almost every voter will see.
  Williams – (Longshot upset) – there has been buzz screaming for her to get nominated all season, and that NSFC nom could help. However, I feel as if the fear all season has been due to Roman Polanski… but maybe that’s just me…

  Overall, I expect:
  Adams
  Leo
  Weaver
  Bonham-Carter
  Kunis

  (I feel as if the confusion for Steinfeld’s category placement will ultimately put her out in this category. However, if she does get nom’d I see Kunis getting the boot.)

• 24 1-18-2011 at 12:43 pm
  
  Kristopher Tapley said...

  Alex: BAFTA was the first, I believe, to put Winslet in lead for The Reader. First I remember seeing Alan Alda pop up. You can find signs sometimes. And what Maxim said.

  But you still miss the point. You seem to think I mean the vote can influence the race, which obviously it can’t, because AMPAS ballots are in. But there is a cross-over block of voters and it’s an industry group so it can illuminate things that we sometimes don’t see coming.

  Not sure how to make it any clearer.

• 25 1-18-2011 at 12:43 pm
  
  scott said...

  I’m with Derek and Eli, unless category confusion ruins things for Steinfeld I could see Carter missing out: Steinfeld, Leo, Adams, Kunis, Weaver.

• 26 1-18-2011 at 12:44 pm
  
  Guy Lodge said...

  I’m getting an increasingly strong hunch that Steinfeld lands that shaky fifth Best Actress spot, allowing room for both Jacki Weaver and … Mila Kunis?

  I keep wondering if Barbara Hershey is this year’s Alan Alda, so to speak — the veteran supporting player from a major Best Picture player that only BAFTA stumps for on the way to an Oscar nod.

  Could we wind up with two sets of twin nominees from the same film? If voters really are watching as few movies as the precursors suggest they are, it strikes me as a distinct possibility.

• 27 1-18-2011 at 12:55 pm
  
  JJ1 said...

  That’s a good point, Guy. Since Black Swan and The Fighter are being seen & championed SO much … the lazy voters in AMPAS who “won’t” see as much as they shuld could very well write down Kunis & Hershey. Very interesting.

• 28 1-18-2011 at 1:01 pm
  
  Frank Lee said...

  Remember during the summer when a number of people were claiming Marion Cotillard was a lock for “Inception”? I always thought her role was too one-note (albeit one hysterical note). I kind of feel the same about Barbara Hershey’s role. Cotillard and Hershey are both fine actresses, but Mila Kunis was simply more interesting and showed a bit more range. (Now that I say this, watch Marion Cotillard come from nowhere and be nominated.)

• 29 1-18-2011 at 1:08 pm
  
  m1 said...

  Amy Adams
  Melissa Leo
  Helena Bonham Carter
  Mila Kunis
  Jacki Weaver

  Steinfeld will be in Best Actress.

• 30 1-18-2011 at 1:19 pm
  
  Guy Lodge said...

  The only people claiming Marion Cotillard was a “lock” for Inception were especially rabid fans of the film.

• 31 1-18-2011 at 1:22 pm
  
  Maxim said...

  And here I always thought Cotillard was the “key” to Inception ;) …

• 32 1-18-2011 at 1:38 pm
  
  julian said...

  BAFTA members constitute 17-18% of the AMPAS…that´s a pretty strong indicator of steinfeld going to take a best actress slot. 17-18% in most cases is a reliable focal point, even though where not talking traditional polls here.
  That means the five nominees for supp actress could be this line-up: leo-adams-bonham carter (undeserved, to say the least, but there you go…)-weaver-manville. I predict kunis-hershey in sixth and seventh spot, a shame for the BS team, so close, but no cigar!

• 33 1-18-2011 at 1:39 pm
  
  julian said...

  marion cotillard…? be real…

• 34 1-18-2011 at 1:56 pm
  
  JFK said...

  I’m gonna’ echo Guy’s sentiments early this year and say Emma Stone should be considered, though I am very skeptical of that happening.

• 35 1-18-2011 at 2:03 pm
  
  billybil said...

  I’m gonna go way out on a limb here and say that Lawrence and Steinfeld are struggling for that “new great actress on the horizon” spot. I’m sorry, but with all the wealth of talent and all the good feelings toward many of the “almost” nominees this year, I can’t believe the Academy is going to nominate 2 “unknown” “1st time” actresses for Best Actress. Help me – is there a precedent in RECENT years?

  I think Portman and Bening are absolute locks. I hope Kidman is – She did one from the heart and made it happen and was quite good and very real (and her forehead moved all over the place). Then we’ve got Lawrence who everyone online is now treating like an oldhand at this stuff. Yes – she’s been included in every party so far but let’s not forget – people think of the Oscars as really special. Don’t get me wrong, I still think she’s going to get nominated but I think that that will leave Steinfeld out of BA. And, please God, let them acknowledge Moore along with Bening. If not, then give it to Michelle Williams (who does still have some sympathy in the biz over her loss and was “robbed” a few years ago of a worthy nomination). Watching the Globes and seeing how Bening acknowledged Moore and how Moore had so much to do with making KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT happen, I think she may actually have the edge in AMPAS when it comes right down to it (plus she is the most “due” actress of the lot). So I’m going with:
  Bening
  Kidman
  Lawrence
  Moore
  Portman (Williams as alt)

  I’ve thought from the very beginning that Sup Actress was the PERFECT place for Manville. And now that her own countrymen have put her in that spot, I think the odds are high that she will be there for the Oscars. So Leo, Adams, Manville, and…hmmm – Helena Bonham Carter? I’m not so sure. If KING’S SPEECH was plowing through and WINNING with the critics and the guilds, I’d think she’d ride her way right in but now…as we see KING’S SPEECH fall to 3rd or 4th on the Best Pic list – I think Carter may fall off altogether. With regards to Kunis…yes, the Academy does like pretty young things but my gut tells me that Adams more than covers that spot in Sup Actress and Kunis just recently left TV sitcom land so I just think she’s gonna have to earn a few more stripes before they invite her to the biggest party of them all. It would be silly to forget that Weist is a master and was quite good in RABBIT HOLE (but she’s also a two time winner already) so I think her nomination will depend on how much AMPAS wants to acknowledge Nicole’s movie (which may be more than we think right now). But, something tells me that Hershey has a better chance of getting the old pro spot rather than Weist – partly because BLACK SWAN is the more popular film and partly because Hershey is an old pro who has only ever been nominated once. So, for me, it comes down to Steinfeld vs Weaver for the fifth slot. I just don’t know how much Weaver has been able to charm the Academy over the past few months so I’m leaning toward Steinfeld (who is charming simply by being so young, so poised, and so appealing in her film) So my guess is:
  Adams
  Hershey
  Leo
  Manville
  Steinfeld

  Both lists “feel” right to me – with surprises and a nice mix of “peripheral” actresses and stars.

• 36 1-18-2011 at 2:06 pm
  
  billybil said...

  OK – the only actress that could even remotely be labeled as peripheral in BA is Lawrence. I understand.

• 37 1-18-2011 at 2:18 pm
  
  McAllister said...

  I’m starting to feel like Jacki Weaver is pretty much a lock at this point. Those screeners have done the trick.

• 38 1-18-2011 at 2:22 pm
  
  Paul Outlaw said...

  #5: Kunis, the pretty one.

• 39 1-18-2011 at 2:22 pm
  
  Marc R. said...

  All i know is if Manville doesn’t get nominated than clearly nobody saw Another Year. It was the most devastating supporting performance of the year and the only thing i really loved about the movie.

• 40 1-18-2011 at 2:22 pm
  
  Kristopher Tapley said...

  McAllister: Says who?

• 41 1-18-2011 at 2:27 pm
  
  deeks said...

  Guy – What do ya think of the possibility of Steinfeld splitting her votes between Lead and Supporting and missing out on both. I see it as a real possibility at this point.

• 42 1-18-2011 at 2:48 pm
  
  Chris said...

  “I’m sorry, but with all the wealth of talent and all the good feelings toward many of the “almost” nominees this year, I can’t believe the Academy is going to nominate 2 “unknown” “1st time” actresses for Best Actress. Help me – is there a precedent in RECENT years?”

  How about Carey Mulligan and Gabby Sidibe? I’m sorry, but if I was going on such a long rant, I’d check my facts first.

• 43 1-18-2011 at 3:02 pm
  
  matsunaga said...

  I think Adams, Bonham-Carter, and Leo are LOCKED for a nomination…

  I don’t think Steinfeld will get through because of split voting well it depends if the Academy loves True Grit… If they did then Steinfeld is in but for me 4th and 5th slot is still open….

  Possible nominee is Kunis for the momentum of Black Swan in every precursor…. Then Weaver still for precursor results…. Though I’m quite skeptical….

  I would love to see Manville.. Maybe she’s the “Maggie Gylenhaal” of this year..

  Or Diane Weist…. But I think people have forgotten her performance in Rabbit Hole…

• 44 1-18-2011 at 3:02 pm
  
  JJ1 said...

  On Steinfeld … I may be wrong, but …

  I feel like Kidman has too much going for her to miss: comeback nom, producing the film, labor of love, memorable performance, nommed at SAG, and voting for noms may have been right before box office for Rabbit Hole started stalling.

  Meanwhile, I think Michelle Williams is the real one vying for the 5th with Steinfeld. Williams was devastatingly good, and has some precursors, but no SAG or BAFTA; and it’s another small film.

  Given that, I think Steinfeld still “might” miss out on both Lead or Supporting with the category confusion; not to mention True Grit being a bit late to the party.

• 45 1-18-2011 at 3:46 pm
  
  Brian said...

  I wonder if it’s such a crapshoot that someone totally from left field can sneak in, like Wiest or Mara (in which case, Social Network sweeps).

  I can see Steinfeld category splitting into no nomination, I can see Hershey and Kunis splitting (hell, maybe even Ryder stealing a few votes, who was on the Bafta long list).

• 46 1-18-2011 at 4:30 pm
  
  Antonio A said...

  I would prefer Hershey over Kunis any day, she was very effective and never over the top! The other day I was thinking why Mia Wasikowska didn’t gain any traction in this category for her work in The Kids Are All Right. She hold her own against two great actresses and gave a quiet, but heartfelt performance!

• 47 1-18-2011 at 4:57 pm
  
  billybil said...

  Hey Chris – thanks for the reminder.

  By the way – you should look up the definition of “rant”. I’d say mine was more of a long-winded vomit.

  And there is NO way either Lawrence’s or Steinfeld’s performance even Sidibe’s performance last year so your example doesn’t really work for me anyway.

  I should have said “2 unknown, 1st time” actresses who do NOT give once in a lifetime, powerhouse performances. Sorry neither Lawrence or Steinfeld qualify with that criteria in mind so please search again.

• 48 1-18-2011 at 4:59 pm
  
  billybil said...

  Damn – if I’m going to try to respond I should at least check my typing…

  I meant “either Lawrence’s or Steinfeld’s performance comes even close to Sidibe’s performance last year”.

  Ah well

• 49 1-18-2011 at 5:09 pm
  
  cineJAB said...

  Lead:
  Portman *lock
  Bening *lock
  Lawrence
  Williams
  Kidman

  If Swank get’s in over Michelle Williams…

  Supporting:
  Leo
  Kunis
  Steinfeld
  Adams
  Bonham Carter

  honestly i think Best Supporting actress is more locked up than Best Actress overall, other than frontrunner status.

• 50 1-18-2011 at 5:16 pm
  
  Steve said...

  It’s totally out of left field but what about Michelle Williams in Shutter Island? I know the movie hasn’t showed up anywhere but it is still a Scorsese film and Williams stole the show every time she was on screen.

• 51 1-18-2011 at 6:06 pm
  
  McAllister said...

  Kris – I should’ve worded it differently… of course all of what I said was conjecture. But after blogging and shouting Jacki Weaver’s name from the rooftops since the summer, I’m finally starting to feel confident about her campaign. The screeners got in early, she’s been working the circuit, the DVD just came out today so I expect more exposure in this last week.

  The only thing I worry about is IF enough people watched the screener. If they did, she’s nominated, no problem. She makes an impact. I just showed the film to two people tonight and they’ve heard me hype it up for months. They were instant fans.

• 52 1-18-2011 at 6:33 pm
  
  Meli said...

  Should be Weaver. Will be Kunis.

• 53 1-18-2011 at 6:40 pm
  
  McAllister said...

  I like Mila Kunis (yes… I… doooo) and she does fine work in Black Swan, but I hope she is in the same boat as Diane Kruger was last year with the SAG nomination but no Oscar nod to follow it up with.

• 54 1-18-2011 at 6:43 pm
  
  Sean said...

  vote:Manville or Weaver for 4th /5th spots

  locked:
  Adams
  Bonham Carter(even though she phoned in the performance)
  Leo

• 55 1-18-2011 at 7:00 pm
  
  JJ1 said...

  I really do not think HBC phoned in the performance. It’s a great performance in a small, thinly written role. I thought she did wonders with the little given her. There was no phoning in; in my opinion, of course.

• 56 1-18-2011 at 7:27 pm
  
  DylanS said...

  Am I the only one who thinks Bonham-Carter has more to worry about than Kunis. People have been much harsher on her peformance’s consistent appearance this awards season.

• 57 1-18-2011 at 9:08 pm
  
  JJ1 said...

  Actually, I don’t think HBC is worrying; she’s rather self-deprecating, haha. And you, yourself, just said consistent appearance; meaning, she’s well-liked for a slot. No?

• 58 1-18-2011 at 11:03 pm
  
  Alex in Movieland said...

  I got the idea, Kris. even the 1st time.

  what I was saying is what’s the percentage of Bafta voters that matches the percentage of Ampas voters?!

  whatever.
  Alan Alda was a good example, yes. But I don’t think Winslet. Everybody was talking about how f’ed up it was for her to go supporting for The Reader even before the Bafta nom for Leading…

• 59 1-19-2011 at 2:20 am
  
  Alberto said...

  Lesley Manville gave the best performance of 2010, so I’d love to see her nominated somewhere, but it looks bad right now.
  For the fifth spot in the supporting category, I’d like Rooney Mara or Blake Lively sneak in from nowhere.
  Here’s an article comparing their Oscar chances with Beatrice Straight’s Oscar-winning performance, the shortest in Oscar history.
  http://www.imitationlife.com/home/2011/1/5/the-beatrice-straight-effect-rooney-maras-and-blake-livelys.html

• 60 1-19-2011 at 5:09 am
  
  Edwin Drood said...

  Adams, Bonham-Carter and Leo seem certain. I think Kunis is safe with the “horny straight guy” vote. Steinfeld for the “fifth slot.” I expect the five to be:

  Amy Adams
  Helena Bonham-Carter
  Mila Kunis
  Melissa Leo
  Hailee Steinfeld

• 61 1-19-2011 at 8:02 am
  
  Ben M. said...

  I’m predicting Leo, Adams, Bonham Carter, Kunis, and Steinfeld, with Weaver the most likely alternate if Kunis or Steinfeld miss. I also think it is possible Steinfeld gets nominated in lead where I currently have Manville in a very open final slot.

• 62 1-19-2011 at 12:22 pm
  
  Kyle t. said...

  Supporting:

  Adams
  Bonham-Carter
  Kunis
  Leo
  Steinfeld

  Lead:

  Benning
  Kidman
  Lawrence
  Moore
  Portman

  Does anyone else think that there’s a chance that Lawrence may be snubbed? Maybe Moore and Manville can sneak in?

• 63 1-22-2011 at 6:21 am
  
  Brooke M said...

  billybil

  I don’t trust the jusgement of anyone who doesn’t consider Portman a lock for a nomination at this point. Hell, she’s almost a lock for the win at this point. I’d bet my entire life savings (admittedly not a lot) that she’s nominated. No offence but come one. Moore has had almost no traction, but I guess its possible. There’s too many people vying for that spot though.

  Also I think Lawrence gave a much better performance than Sidibe, and I think Steinfeld did too. Sidibe was good and all, but her performance didn’t exactly have a lot of depth, and was pretty ameturish (though I guess Steinfeld was too). Lawrence is a lock, and Kidman is close to. The people vying for that 5th spot IMO are 1. Steinfeld 2 . Williams 3. Rapace. 4. Moore. 5. Manville 6. Hilary Swank 7. Hathaway 8. Stone 9. Berry 10. Hawkins No one else has a chance, and even most of these wouod need a freakin’ miracle.

  Oops just forgot, this is a supporting actress convo.

  Predictions

  Leo*
  Adams*

  Carter

  Kunis
  Weaver

  Steinfeld (if not in lead will prob be here)

  Manville
  Hershey
  Weist
  Cotillard
  Richardson

  I think Weaver is far from a lock. She may have a GG, and CC, but missing on the SAG will hurt a lot. SAG usually get most ‘right’, and their mistake quota is already heavy with Swank. Sometimes there are a few differences, but their S.Actor list will probably be different. However is Steinfeld goes lead, she has a real high chance. I think Manville’s catgory switch came way too late to impact, since there is no general concensus that she should be Supporting, unlike Steinfeld, who is so clearly lead its baffling why she’s getting votes in Supp. But its certainly possible given the BAFTAs. Hershey has had no traction whatsoever beofr the BAFTA nod, and I think all she may do is accidentally knock Kunis out of the list. However, I’m rooting for them both. Carter is pretty much a lock, but i think she will lack #1 votes, would could hurt a lot.

  My Preferences in order:

  Amy Adams
  Melissa Leo
  Mila Kunis
  Barbara Hershey
  Marion Cotillard
  Dianne Weist
  Jackie Weaver
  Helena Bonham Carter

  No1 else really worth mentioning cos thyre not in the running at all, and I have Manville and Steinfeld in Lead consideration.

  Sorry about the length,

• 64 1-22-2011 at 7:28 am
  
  JJ1 said...

  My feelings for now are:

  Adams, HBC, Leo locked in.

  The other 2: Manville and Hershey.

  I just have a hunch about Kunis (no BAFTA, there may be undercurrent support for Hershey).

  I also think that Weaver may be the critical darling and press darling that Kris mentions; no SAG or BAFTA (though, I believe she wasn’t eligible).

  And Steinfeld, I feel like there are a lot of votes going Lead for her. If not she’s IN over Hershey.

• 65 1-22-2011 at 11:51 am
  
  Zach said...

  There are so many factors here at play and precedents for basically every scenario. Thank you, Hailee Steinfeld and Lesley Manville, truly effing up this year with your category confusion. And thank you, Mila Kunis, for being all over the place despite the fact that I can’t see what is nomination-worthy about your character.

  It’s interesting that someone mentioned Cameron Diaz for Being John Malkovich. She had all the major precursors except BFCA, IIRC – but she definitely had nods from the Globes, the SAG, and even BAFTA. But her more critically acclaimed, “actor’s actor” costar Catherine Keener was the only one to be nominated – the first of at least two career nominations. And it didn’t matter that Diaz was the beautiful and popular star coming off the success of There’s Something about Mary and doing a physical transformation in BJM. Voters preferred the more nuanced performance and found room for the immensely deserving Toni Collette from The Sixth Sense, not a typical Oscar movie by any means, but an actual Best Picture nominee (unlike BJM).

  Flashforward to 2007. Everyone thought that Angelina Jolie was going to get nominated for her moving and physically transformative performance in the little-seen, early release A Mighty Heart. Jolie is certainly a controversial figure; anyone with that much media attention would be. But despite the film’s low box office (it was, after all, a morbid indie), she seemed to have everything on her side – critical praise, great politics, beauty, star quality, popularity, and nominations from all the key precursors (except BAFTA!). But the Academy said no and went for a more nuanced performance by another Academy favorite, previous nominee Laura Linney, unjustly ignored all season for her characteristically great work in The Savages, which was ALREADY getting recognition in the screenplay category. Note that in addition to Jolie, the newly popular Amy Adams was also overlooked for her great work in Enchanted. It’s the kind of performance that wouldn’t have been nominated anyway unless the movie had gotten the reception of, say, a Mary Poppins. But that left Linney competing with locks Marion Cotillard, Julie Christie, and Ellen Page, as well as Cate Blanchett, who was basically a lock after receiving nominations from every guild for one of her lesser performances in Elizabeth: The Golden Age. Don’t mess with the Blanchett.

  There’s no telling whether Mila Kunis will suffer the same fate as Jolie or Diaz or whether she’ll get that ingenue vote. Performance-wise, apart from some naturalistic dancing, I just don’t understand the nomination; I don’t think many of us do. But popularity-wise, she is everywhere, being anointed the new Angelina Jolie. She’s beautiful and charming and in a surefire Best Picture nominee. Does she get dumped for Lesley Manville, rightfully in supporting after BAFTA, and in a Mike Leigh movie that voters are likely to see, but unknown in the states? After Sally Hawkins’s snub, I think Mike Leigh movies are stronger scripts and ensemble pieces than they are vehicles for any one performance. Much more likely than either of these two from a sheer performance standpoint is Jacki Weaver. Many people would put her #1 based on her accessible performance as a creepy bad mother. But we already have that in Melissa Leo. It shouldn’t hurt Weaver that she is Australian per se, but what does hurt is that nobody is watching her movie (even less than Another Year, probably). Then again, with the BFCA and GG recognition, she’s been up for enough precursors to be firmly in the race. And the Barbara Hershey nomination for a performance that is more memorable than Kunis’s suggests that the Black Swan girls could cancel out. What’s interesting is that they haven’t canceled out yet; it’s either been Kunis or Hershey, but always someone from the movie.

  Dianne Wiest I would not be surprised to see if she had just a little more critical support and were actually playing against type. But I don’t see it happening.

  For lead, I think Lawrence and Kidman are still in. After BAFTA you would think that Steinfeld has enough votes to put her in lead, and maybe even take Lawrence’s young vote. But I think Steinfeld has enough votes to make it in either category, as the young ingenue in a really popular movie, so I don’t see her getting snubbed as some are predicting. For the longest time Michelle Williams just made sense to me; she’s ripe for a Lead nomination and the performance looks raw and moving. She’s been all over the news promoting it, and there’s still that immense Heath Ledger sympathy. But now I’m starting to wonder if the film is simply too esoteric, or too simplistic, for voters. We’ve seen Swank get in over her with SAG and Steinfeld, who was originally trailing her on the longlist, pass her with the BAFTA. I know Swank has only received a SAG nomination for a film that came out a couple of months ago. I know that the SAG often likes to appreciate big-name veterans in what is not their best work. But her performance is chipper, and she’s playing a likable underdog, a real-life character with an important story. Even if it’s generic, there’s simply more there than what Michelle Williams or Julianne Moore had to work with. If Meryl Streep could be nominated for Music of the Heart, if Will Smith could be nominated for The Pursuit of Happyness, then I see no reason why a big star like Swank can’t return to the party after a SAG nod. If nobody’s seeing her movie, well, they’re not seeing Blue Valentine either.

  So after all this ranting and raving, I think we have a lot of mobility in the races. Steinfeld has probably enough votes to get that 5th slot in Lead, but she may have even more votes in Supporting where she has been campaigned all along. (I was originally thinking Winslet and Keisha Castle-Hughes too, but then remember Jennifer Hudson and Jennifer Connelly. Winslet and especially Castle-Hughes HAD to be lead; they weren’t exactly part of ensembles.)

  So if supporting still includes Adams, Bonham Carter, Leo, and Steinfeld, then I’m just going to go out on a limb and say that Kunis and Hershey cancel out, while a meaty performance and the press circuit push Weaver in over Manville (who is bound to lose the British voteto HBC anyway). I know, too many old ladies, and Black Swan is being seen by more people than Animal Kingdom, so I’m probably wrong.

  In Lead, if Steinfeld stays supporting, then I’m leaning toward Swank at the moment, but I would not be surprised to see Michelle Williams based on the rawness of her performance and her backstory. The bottom line is that there are a lot of people clamoring for that fifth spot, which makes it easier for someone with Steinfeld’s buzz to come in and swoop it up, but I’m still not convinced that everyone is putting her lead. But she will get in either way. If as a lead, then Weaver and Kunis most likely both get in, with Manville as the spoiler for either of those two.

• 66 1-22-2011 at 8:32 pm
  
  Sebastien Bertrand said...

  I say it’s going to be:

  1. Melissa Leo-The Fighter
  2. Amy Adams-The Fighter
  3. Helena Bonham Carter-The King’s Speech
  4. Mila Kunis-Black Swan
  5. Jacki Weaver-Animal Kingdom

  Hailee Steinfeld will pop up in the Best Actress category.

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