And it is as it should have been expected. The question now is, will it match Oscar’s five 100%?
It’s worth noting that “True Grit” is a late bloomer and the DGA have had ballots since late November. If they went in early, and seeing as you can’t send screeners to the membership, it’s possible a number of voters didn’t see it before submitting. But these are a strong five and I don’t know who would drop out.
The instinct for some is Tom Hooper, but there’s no reason to think that would happen, honestly. It’s doing just fine. David O. Russell is the one a lot of people didn’t expect to see here, so that might be a decent call. But his nomination today should be enough to dispel the notion that a shaky industry rep would keep him out of the game this season. Or is it?
Whatever the case, I simply have to stop underestimating “Black Swan.” It’s my favorite film in the hunt, yet I’ve been surprised by the willingness to embrace it at every turn. Anyway, check out the DGA nominees at The Circuit.
[Photo: The Weinstein Company]
Comments
63 responses to “Russell, Hooper make DGA slate”
Too bad the Coens missed out, but it’s hard to argue with these five.
[…] Graysmith on: 2010 DGA nominees […]
Hooper will be replaced come Oscar time. Probably by the Coens Brothers.
Anyone think the Oscar lineup might be different?
~Facepalm~
Does anyone think it won’t be Hooper?
Not seeing Debra Granik name on the five is disappointing.
So happy to see David O. Russell cited here. His direction of what should have been by all early impressions a mediocre, Oscar-baiting film is the true hero of The Fighter.
The DGA’s are a validation for probability theory.
its hard to believe black swan has seen such support isn’t it kris, admitting it might just curse it, so lets move forward with the same reservations and take the surprises as they comes
Late surge probably hurt True Grit, sure, but what self-respecting member of the directors branch would vote before seeing the new Coens entry? I suspect their absence here has more to do with the strength of the other contenders overall.
qwiggles: This isn’t a 400 member “director’s branch,” it’s a 10,000-member strong, vast organization that includes everything everything from 1st ADs to UPMs. It’s a populist group and plenty of them are working, so “self-respecting” or not, sometimes the ballot needs to be turned in and you haven’t gotten around to everything yet. Happens all the time.
…that said, AMPAS is generally very kind to old friends (Stephen Daldry anyone?) and quite receptive to late-surging films in their peak (Stephen Daldry anyone?), so I fully expect the Coens to knock out Russell on their ballot.
Congratulations to Aronofsky on his first DGA nomination and to Nolan for his third! Hard to argue with this lineup. It is important to remember that the DGA aren’t sent screeners, and have very few member screenings, so True Grit is the very definition of a late spoiler. If anyone replaces Russell at the Oscars, it’s the Coens. But The Fighter clearly has strength. We shall see. Hopefully these nominations translate into Oscar nominations for Nolan and Aronofsky, since Fincher and Hooper are locks.
qwiggles, your Stephen Daldry comment made chuckle out loud. Thank you for the laugh on this day in which I am snowed in like it’s no one’s business.
Fair point re: the membership composition, but wouldn’t that characterization of them as busy and populist make them more, not less likely to turn their ballots in late and vote for a populist film they caught over the holidays by a pair of directors they likely admire?
np, Hans! But don’t thank me: thank Stephen Daldry, preferably 3 times.
Not when they’ve had the ballot since 11/20. I imagine most ballots went in early December and they got around to True Grit over the holidays. Pure speculation, of course.
Didn’t Fighter open less than a week before True Grit? So is it really fair to say that’s why TG missed a shot? Don’t get me wrong, I’m hoping you’re right because I want to see The Coens nominated.
Am I the only one who isn’t seeing these new posts on the front page?
The most recent post is OFF THE CARPET: Written in ink.
I’ve only managed to access this through link’s on Kris Tapley’s Twitter.
Most Guild members fill out their ballots almost immediately upon arrival, so I think Kris is right on this one, especially since the DGA isn’t sent screeners, they aren’t able to see True Grit early. If ballots were in hand 11/20, that means most members filled theirs out the first week of December. And remember, The Fighter started screening around that time with AFI Fest, so plenty had already seen it. True Grit didn’t start screening until mid-late December, mere days before the actual opening.
Probably, but then again, there’s probably no director in history that everyone uniformly loved enough to make sure to catch their films no matter what. Much as I adore Coens I just don’t think they have been noted by DGA enough for that to be even remotely the case.
If it was, they’d have a dozen nods by now.
Then, as Tapley pointed out, there’s a matter of logistics. Sometimes, even absolute favorites can be hurt by the timing. The sheer size of the voting body of DGA only amplifies that probability.
I have no doubt that Coens and I don’t know Boyle, Cholodenko etc all came very close and might have shot at the Oscars. The question is, whose slot would become vacant for that to happen?
adam: What browser are you using?
I’ve always wondered about the notion that ballots get completed and submitted right away. Maybe it’s because I’m a neurotic completist who compulsively makes and rearranges top ten lists, despite having no outlet to publish such lists, and a guy who’s already really slow at answering mail, but it seems totally alien to me. Who are these people — accountants?
Maxim: It’s a hit among a great many polled (by a handful of various interests, vested and not) post-holidays.
“True Grit didn’t start screening until mid-late December, mere days before the actual opening.”
Technically that isn’t true. True Grit first screened at t end of Novemeber but I don’t think it was a very big (or inclusive) screening.
And ann, you might want to try hitting refresh on your browser.
Kristopher Tapley: Safari but everything seems fine now.
I meant, adam. Sorry about that.
Why is everyone presuming that David O. Russell is the one to go if the Coens make the Academy lineup?
Is Aronofsky — or even Nolan, for that matter — any less vulnerable?
adam: It’s an issue with caching. And it’s only on Safari, for some reason. When it gets to be heavy traffic, like today, then the site will start caching pages and holding them longer than normal, hence older posts showing up. But it doesn’t happen on Firefox or Chrome, which is odd. I’m looking into figuring it all out, though. Apologies. (Never mind Maxim’s snarky comment, it is a real issue. You’re not crazy.)
Guy: My sense is that it’s because both Black Swan and Inception have been characterized as “director’s movies,” whereas The Fighter is seen as an “actor’s movie.” Which is bullshit, really, and who would know that an actor’s movie is also a director’s movie if not other directors?
Kris: I kind of assumed it was. Any doubts I have, have to do with it not being sin as a primarily directorial hit – I think True Grit is a shoe-in in the best Adapted slot and BP among othr things.
“Is Aronofsky — or even Nolan, for that matter — any less vulnerable?”
Nolan is something of an unknown (unknown?) commodity in that senese, still. Same words (if not the logic) apply to O. Russell (which is probably why many question his presence). But before I am proven wrong, I would not bet against Aronofsky.
” (Never mind Maxim’s snarky comment, it is a real issue. You’re not crazy.)”
What snarky comment? I was being 100% serious. Browsers can cache pages too, you know? In fact, depending on his default setting, I wouldn’t be suprised if that’s what happened to adam.
True, but this is actually an on-going issue with Safari. Sorry for thinking you were snarky. :)
I would agree with qwiggles remark on The Fighter not being (as much) a director’s movie as Black Swan and Inception are. That and Russell’s past bad reputation, along with Aronofsky and Nolan being more “due”.. Those would be my own reasoning anyway why I feel Russell isn’t as strong as the others.
That said, I think there could be a little roundabout with Hooper, Russell and the Coens for those last slots. I guess most of us are expecting Hooper to get in on account of the film’s frontrunner status, but he’s still fairly unknown and the film isn’t some Grand Auteur movie either. I’ll probably predict him, but I wouldn’t be too shocked if he misses either, especially when you’ve got names like Coen, Aronofsky, Fincher, Nolan and Russell in the race.
Well my predictions were correct – this matches us with the golden globe nominations!
About the Coen’s, I just just get the feeling it’s not ‘their year’.
However they just might be the ones most primed to takeover a director slot come nomination time.
Why everyone keeps forgetting that the DGA’s almost always miss by one? It’s a 90% probability that they’ll miss by at least one nominee, who’s usually the one who hasn’t had mentions everywhere.
Can I just put out there the idea that it might be Boyle who replaces someone and not the Coens. It’s a notion I particularly disslike because outside of Franco’s performance I found 127 Hours to be nothing special.
That said the film surprised everyone with how it just won’t go away, despite all the reports about people not wanting to see it. It got in the top 10 at the PGA and Boyle’s last movie swept the Oscars, including Director. I hate to think it might happen, but let me just put the notion forward
I think Boyle needed to have popped up here if he were to have had a shot at an Oscar nomination. I think these nominees whittles the field down to 6.
No prob, Kris :).
“It’s a 90% probability that they’ll miss by at least one nominee, who’s usually the one who hasn’t had mentions everywhere.”
That probably is probably less than 90% but the
a left-field theory is something I’ve been thinking about too. But who would it be?
My guess is for the Oscar nominations Nolan is going to be replaced by the Coens. I believe Nolan was nominated by the DGA’s for The Dark Knight but not the Oscars. I think he has only been nominated once by the Academy (for writing Memento), so I am going to need to see them actually nominate him before I believe they’re on his bandwagon.
Is anyone else beginning to think that Black Swan is becoming a real runner in this race. Critically acclaimed, fantastic box office (based on budget, genre etc), hitting with all the major guilds.
I have a real feeling that this could end up being a genuine three horse race for the top prize : The Social Network v The Kings Speech v Black Swan.
Nolan has three DGA noms, the Coens have two noms (winning one).. Nolan is also the second most award winning filmmaker this year (same goes for his screenwriting), with nominations everywhere he lost. He has gotten love across the board with PGA, DGA and WGA and he got the globes noms (he didnt for dark knight)
He’s due for some oscar love and he is getting it this year.
Deeks, I say The Social Network vs. Everyone Else, with The King’s Speech and The Fighter out in front of the pack. But it’s still early.
I can’t see Hooper getting bumped; the film is one of the main contenders, and despite his comparatively low profile, the partisans for “The King’s Speech” aren’t going to want him not nominated.
Nick Davis on the Film Experience podcast seems to think Debra Granik might squeeze into the five because of Kathryn Bigelow and now Martin Scorsese thumping for “Winter’s Bone” around town. I’d love to see it, but I’m not sure I buy that notion, though I do agree that if any of the two women directors in play were to get in, it’d be Granik and not Lisa Cholodenko. Who would get squeezed out?
By the way, I think that even if Tom Hooper were to be left off the Oscar list (not that he would), “The King’s Speech” could still very well win Best Picture, a la “Driving Miss Daisy.”
Happy to see David O. Russell here, but I still fear for his Oscar chances though.
By the way, these DGA noms matches the Globe noms for best director. How often does it happen that Golden Globe, DGA and Oscar matches 100%???
I don’t know, but it seems likely that something different could happen with Oscar.
I have to think that Nolan is a lock. The reason the Academy expanded the Best Picture to 10 nominations was because of the public backlash over The Dark Knight being snubbed.
Unless they have plans on awarding The Dark Knight Rises when no one except the Nolans know what it’s going to be about, Inception is going to be the “OK, we made a mistake last time” nomination.
“The reason the Academy expanded the Best Picture to 10 nominations was because of the public backlash over The Dark Knight being snubbed.”
Yeah, right. People keep saying that but just isn’t true. It probably contributed to this effect but decisions like this are never based on just movie, especially one that was snubbed.
I say The Social Network vs. Everyone Else, with The King’s Speech and The Fighter out in front of the pack. But it’s still early.
I think “Everyone Else” is a long shot, personally.
Guy, I think at this point I’d take Anything Else with Everything You’ve Got, personally ;) .