So nine years ago yesterday I started a crappy, embarrassing little amateur site on Yahoo!’s now defunct Geocities platform and called it Oscar Central. It was a way to blow off steam in film school, maybe fold an offline hobby (Oscar-watching, predicting, obsessing) into an online community that seemed to already have healthy numbers. Plus, hey, it was the early years. I figured some low tech internet training was far from the worst thing I could be doing.
That’s a long way of saying today kicks off my 10th season of Oscar coverage online, and in that decade, plenty has changed. One thing has remained the same, however, and that is a focused interest, both from myself and a growing readership, in the admittedly arbitrary and somewhat solipsistic process of awarding the “best” in filmed art and entertainment.
To put it more succinctly: Here we go again.
The 2010-2011 Oscar season takes its first real steps Wednesday as the 67th annual Venice Film Festival sets sail on the Lido. That opening night will see Darren Aronofsky’s “Black Swan” get its toes wet as Fox Searchlight tests the season’s waters, perhaps with a worthy follow-up to the director’s 2008 awards title “The Wrestler,” perhaps not. Two days later the 37th annual Telluride Film Festival lifts its curtain in the mountains of Colorado, bringing any number of “surprise” bows (we all know what they’ll be but, again, I’ll respect the fest’s wishes in this space), before Toronto’s media circus fills in the cracks and brings us to mid-September and the fiery beginnings of Oscar’s 83rd barbecue.
Much will be answered during those 18 days. Paths will be paved, strategies set and publicity ranks fortified as the dog and pony show that is the film awards season starts anew. But here on the northern edge of the season’s Rubicon, the die has not yet been cast. The possibilities are still endless, any and all speculation fair. Intuition and phantom buzz mingles nicely in these twilight moments, yielding multiple interpretations of the oncoming, still faceless beast.
You might, for instance, hang a lot of consideration on release date decisions and the idea that strategy foundations are already solidified before waves of critical eyes have fallen on the merchandise (forgive the vulgar term). You might make the usual calls to the precious few actually in the know in this calm before the storm. You might start the snark early by poking fun at people for dutifully reminding you of their modest contenders, or you might fight off stagnated group think by searching for alternative vantage points.
Personally, I try to take a deep breath. Because you get few chances to do so on this roller coaster of shifting perception, narrative and endgame. The season itself is alive, a breathing organism observed from conception through maturity to natural expiration. Like all great stories, it has a beginning a middle and an end, and so we find ourselves bathed in prologue.
It’s always proper to give thanks for the brave souls of potential that have landed outside Oscar’s back-loaded tramping ground. Films like “Shutter Island,” “Winter’s Bone,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “Inception,” “Toy Story 3” (to be sure), “Get Low” and “How to Train Your Dragon” may find their way to Oscar’s recently expanded center ring, but they would do so on a longer timeline more demanding of endurance. And they serve as mere introduction to chapters yet to be revealed.
Most conversations at this stage yield an inevitable, “It looks like a weak year.” But as I glance across the landscape of contenders, I see that, indeed, 2010 doesn’t look to be a banner season. Nothing really has the hallmark of bona fide awards flavor in any big way, and that’s probably a good thing. It lowers the expectation to manageable levels and keeps the canvas uncluttered in the early stages.
After taking a year away from the Best Picture fray, 2008 victor Fox Searchlight is back in a big way with four films that could gain traction. They are Darren Aronofsky’s “Black Swan,” Danny Boyle’s “Slumdog Millionaire” follow-up “127 Hours,” the Hilary Swank starrer “Conviction” and Mark Romanek’s adaptation “Never Let Me Go.” Each film may have its drawbacks but four shots on goal is plenty for this savvy studio to work with.
Most of the other usual season suspects seem to have clearly defined “big dogs” ready to take on the circuit. Focus Features is serious about “The Kids Are All Right” as an Oscar play (not, as some seem to suspect, Sofia Coppola’s “Somewhere”); Sony Pictures Classics has Mike Leigh’s Cannes hit “Another Year” leading the way (though more and more effort is being put behind summer indie “Get Low”); Paramount is excited about the prospects of David O. Russell’s boxing biopic “The Fighter” (before having seen anything of the Coens’ “True Grit,” mind you); Sony will have it’s eggs in “The Social Network”’s basket (though the last minute entry of “The Tourist” might be worth keeping an eye on); and “The King’s Speech” will likely be the easiest get for The Weinstein Company (though word is a run at the big prize could be in store for the foreign “The Concert”).
Warner Bros. will see what it can get for “Inception” but has the potential for another wave of Clint Eastwood support in “Hereafter”; Disney has a sure-thing in “Toy Story 3,” but has been showing “Secretariat” to measured approval; indie venue Roadside Attractions will try to step up its game with “Biutiful” and “Winter’s Bone” (though scuttlebutt regarding parent Lionsgate is that Tyler Perry’s “For Colored Girls Who Have Considered Suicide When the Rainbow is Enuf” could get yanked into December for a run); Fox follows up the monstrous year of “Avatar” with more modest comedy stylings in “Love & Other Drugs” and perhaps some good will for “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”; and Universal will, perhaps happily, watch from the sidelines for a second year in a row.
And as broad early summaries go, that’s about it. Any number of surprises tend to lurk, so hold on. It’s a long, bumpy ride.
The sidebar predictions have been updated and the Contenders section has been polished, adding a simple ranking system. I know a number of folks bemoaned the loss of the charts last season so I figured it wouldn’t hurt to give an ordered indication of my thoughts. I won’t be keeping up with the shifting and sliding, though. A quick note: anything currently lacking a domestic distributor has been relegated to the “rest of the field” sections of each category for now. And as we await the release date fate of “The Tree of Life,” which could yet move to 2011, I thought it best to shuffle it to the bottom of the deck throughout for the time being.
We’ll revisit things next week, after a number of the unseen finally get their moment to impress.
In closing, a few notes on our impending coverage this season: First, Guy’s correspondence from the Venice Film Festival kicks off Wednesday. I’ll again make the trek to Telluride this year, coverage starting Friday. We will not, however, have a presence at the Toronto festival for the first time in four years. Between Venice, Telluride and whatever studios plan to screen here in LA during that span, I think we’ll be properly covered regardless. We’ll miss a handful of early looks, but that stuff will make its way to screening rooms in town shortly after the overly stuffed Toronto fest winds down.
Anne Thompson and I are hoping to keep the weekly Oscar Talk series going while we’re separately attending the Venice and Telluride fests. It could get tricky, but we’re aiming for a new edition on September 3. Regardless, after festival madness subsides, it’ll be weekly (Fridays), uninterrupted, throughout the season.
When Guy gets back from Venice and after Toronto concludes, he will again launch his own Oscar column, The Long Shot, on September 22. That will run every Wednesday throughout the season.
After completing a first round of crafts category forecasting via his Tech Support column on September 9, Gerard’s corner of the site will take a break for a couple of weeks as the September festivals wrap themselves up. In that time I’m thinking about writing up a couple of Tech Support specials for the season, as I quite miss writing in depth about those categories. I haven’t quite put my finger on what they’ll be yet, but Gerard’s second volumes will pick back up in early October and conclude early-to-mid December, when our annual Tech Support interview series will launch once more.
Finally, we’re sad to see Chad Hartigan retire his box office coverage on the site following yesterday’s final installment of Sunday Cents on the last weekend of the summer movie season. Since that first post in March of last year, Chad’s has been a unique and refreshing voice around these parts, one I’m sure you’ve all enjoyed reading and, many times, debating. His work as a box office analyst in the industry is in flux and he’s putting the extra energy toward developing his second feature. Hopefully I’ll join him on that side of the line one of these days, but for now, color me jealous. He will, however, see his Life Without Oscar series to its end in December. So don’t fret.
We’re looking forward to a great season and hope you are, too. Now, take that deep breath…
[Photos: Walt Disney Pictures, Roadside Attractions, Fox Searchlight Pictures]
Comments
87 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: Once more into the breach”
Every awards season, a certain director always emerges as the “star”. Last year it was Kathryn Bigelow, Boyle the year before, and I can’t help but think that Nolan will be that star this year. I think he’ll ride a good wave of critical support at the end of the year, so I don’t think you should count him out just yet.
Otherwise, great to be back in Oscar season! The Emmys are BORING to follow.
How is Michelle Williams(blue valentine) completely off your contenders list? I really hope that is a mistake.
Definitely a mistake. Thanks for the catch, Amanda.
Best director for NLMG all of a sudden? Have you heard amazing things about it?
Congratulations on the 10 years Kris! Been an avid follower for years. You’re doing the Lord’s work:D
-Carlo, from the Philippines
@Hans I could see Fincher become the star. Nolan is already huge, and besides the forgettable Ben Button and Se7en, Fincher hasn’t had any big hits. His other films are popular with us, like Boyle’s, but most people don’t know who Fincher is.
Andrew, of all Fincher’s film I would guess that Fight Club is his most well known. Certainly more so than Se7en and probably even Button.
…and exhale.
It’s great to be back in Oscar season, Kris. It’s exciting to get on the roller coaster again. :D
Great article!
My questions and/or objections:
1) During the podcast, you said that you’ve heard that Never let Me Go will probably not have luck with the Oscars and yet you think Romanek is in (the best pic nod feels less strange since there are 10 spots)
2) Why Garfield for NLMG instead of the Social Network? Because of the more sentimental nature of the former?
3) You think Black Swan is more likely to get a writing nod than a best pic one. It seems weird to me because, from what we have (the trailer), it shows visual power more than anything else.
phew about Michelle..I was all WUT???
It’s also nice to see Haille Steinfeld on the list. One I think you should look out for is Cécile De France for Hereafter, if anyone gets a supporting actress nod from Hereafter it’s her not BDH. Bryce is barely in the movie and doesn’t really do anything.
Congrats on the site anniversary… The giant boost for NLMG on the charts is eye-opening! Three acting nominations!?!
@Matt, Yeah Fight Club is pretty popular, I was thinking more Box Office and Oscars which Se7en and Ben Button fall in. But Fight Club is more well known.
I’m really surprised you took Christopher Nolan out of Best Director.
The one thing that’s baffling about NLMG is that its British release date is January 2011… While it’s opening the London Film Fest before that, it is downright strange that they’d take this surefire nominee out of BAFTA consideration for 2010.
Regarding NLMG, Anne and I talked more about it privately and, frankly, she sold me on it. I heard some things last month but they weren’t any more or less valid than Anne’s opinion. I’m unsure how much of an impact 127 Hours will have (though I’m obviously still sticking with it in pic and director) and know Searchlight to be a savvy studio when it comes to marketing for awards, so I just took a plunge. By this time next week (I think), I’ll have seen the film and will have a more informed viewpoint.
Jim: Garfield in either/or, really. Flip a coin. I went with what is likely the more emotional turn.
As for Black Swan, I don’t think that trailer, as awesome as it is, indicates an Academy play at all. As Anne and I discussed in the podcast Friday, it’s very “genre” and could be too much so for Academy tastes. This is also why I’m being cautious with Inception.
I’m thinking this could be a Fincher year; I’ll hold judgement until I see The Social Network, though.
Kris, has Anne seen NLMG??? Someone on another forum said that she has. I like the cast, but the trailer did nothing for me.
Does Brighton Rock have a US distributor because I’m hearing wonderful things about Andrea Riseborough’s performance.
Where is Ryan Gosling on your list of contenders???? Like his co-star Michelle Williams, his performance in Blue Valentine (according to buzz) ranks as a career-best. He’s also very popular, young and well-respected. I would toss out Eisenberg in favor of him.
Melissa: Yes, she has. A number of people have seen it at pre-Toronto screenings (people going to Toronto, that is). She discussed it briefly in the podcast. And no distrib for Rock yet. I took Riseborough out (I’ve had her in since the first predictions set) because I decided to cut all distributorless films from predictions for now. Thinks could likely change on that front in a few weeks and she’llbe right back in.
Layla: He’s in our contenders section at #8.
I see that you don’t even have Black Swan as a contender for Original Score. Is it because there is a high possibility that it might get disqualified for the use to the Swan Lake ballet?
Oversight.
damn kris, you were into the Oscars as a male teenager? wow, i dont know what to say. why werent you playing football or starting a band? i dont want to suggest anything is wrong with that but it just seems weird, like how many dudes were doing that?
In film school? Plenty. And it was less about really understanding the circuit than it was being pissed that personal favorites (The Thin Red Line, The Insider, Fight Club) kept coming up empty-handed when the show rolled around every year.
Oh okay, thank the podcast never works for me.
Oh really? What’s the problem?
It always cuts off before the talking begins.
Weird. Have you tried clicking the “download” link below the player? It could be an issue with the built-in player but the file is accessible through that link at the very least.
Thanks, I’ll try it that way.
Even at 15 I knew Fight Club had no chance at nominations. I was also into the oscars back then and actually put stock into it. Didn’t take me long to realize the best films and performances never win.
Speaking of which I think Anne is totally on point about Black Swan’s Oscar potential. The Academy simply dislikes Aronofsky and that may be putting it mildly.
Not only do they continue to screw him but they also snub the people that work with him. The fact that neither Mansell nor Libatique have a single nomination yet shows the lack of accountability on part of the Academy.
The worst snub of all is of course Ellen Burstyn not winning for Requiem. Put aside the fact that all the other nominees put in better work than Julia. Ellen’s work was epic. Every time I watch her “I’m old” monologue on YouTube there are another 50 anti-Julia comments posted.
I am preparing for more of the same this year regarding Aronofsky/Mansell/Libatique and the cast.
Rankings look great, Kris. Just posted my new rankings last week. The biggest difference is probably my lack of faith in The Fighter. I think it’ll probably be a good movie, but not something the Academy would go after.
Kris, after last week’s podcast, I’m really surprised (yet thrilled) by your inclusion of Never Let Me Go in all of the major categories. What swayed you to the other side?
Read earlier in the comments.
Thanks Kris, I missed that. I’m still a little unclear as to whether or not Anne saw NLMG though. I do remember hearing that neither of you read the novel, which I highly recommend.
Whats with the sudden surge of confidence in Another Year? Is it due to the warm critical reception at Cannes or you managed to catch an early screening?
JFK: She did.
red: Nothing sudden about it. It’s been there since right after Cannes.
Kris, do you really think the Academy will go with 2 kids in 1 category? Has that ever happened before?
Also, have you heard anything about “Everything Must Go”? Apparently the script is fantastic and I thought it may be a vehicle for a dramatic Ferrell.
No, I don’t. I’ll probably replace Fanning with Riseborough again once Brighton Rock is picked up. But for now, those dubious predictions are reflective of an incredibly weak category.
If Perry’s film makes a run, I could see any number of those ladies spicing things up, though.
I’ve heard very little about Everything Must Go.
According to one of the producers Facebook pages The Way Back has both a distributor and a release date for one week in December before going wide on January 21st.
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/weirs-way-back-due-in-december-but-he-sounds-hesitant-about-his-filmmaking-future
Were you unaware or do you just think the films potential is very low?
Yes, I remember that Facebook entry, and to me, it’s not valid as news. It sounds awfully off-the-cuff and if there WAS a distributor already lined up, that would certainly be whispers on the winds by now. What the producer seems to be indicating is the strategy they’d like to take, and if it’s simply the production company fronting whatever it costs to release it for a week to qualify (note there is no indication that a distributor is indeed acquired, only that the plan is to release it for a week), then I think it’s dead in the water (awards wise). Based on what I’ve heard from those who’ve seen it, I think it’s going to be a tough climb even if it does land a domestic distributor.
That sucks I had high hopes for it, Weirs films are often great and the story and cast seem great. Do you think there’s a chance it may get any acting nods for Sturgess, Harris or Farrell?
I don’t REALLY know without seeing it, but I hear Ferrell is pretty good.
“The one thing that’s baffling about NLMG is that its British release date is January 2011… While it’s opening the London Film Fest before that, it is downright strange that they’d take this surefire nominee out of BAFTA consideration for 2010.”
Jeremy: It will be eligible for the BAFTAs. They work on a different calendar to the Oscars, with a late-February cutoff.
For some reason I just can’t get past The King’s Speech. Sure, it has Firth, Weistein and the period prestige going for it, but other than that, it sounds god awful. I could see Firth getting in, although I’d much rather Javier Bardem be recognized for Bituful.
Based on that trailer, I can’t see 127 Hours getting anywhere near the Oscars, weak year or not.
@jiveturkey Actually, both Linda Blair and Tatum O’Neal were nominated as 14 and 10 year olds, respectively, in the same Supporting Actress race one year, with O’Neal winning, of course. But that was also a time when the Academy was a lot more open to nominating child (particularly girls) performances.
And as an aside, I think it’d be interesting if Elle got the nod considering Dakota is way more overdue, IMO.
I can’t see Nolan being snubbed AGAIN at the Oscars, but if that is the case I hope Aronofsky is one of the five in.
Franco in 127 Hours will certainly have the ample screentime to justify a lead actor nomination, yet I don’t see him pulling it off.
Oscar winner Gwyneth Paltrow’s omission is curious to me… The song Country Strong that leaked a few weeks back showed her in fine voice (definitely the kind of gimmick that gets acting noms) and she’s heading a female-led drama with limited release in December. To not include her on the long list at all is bizarre. Obviously, Country Strong might be a completely commercial film, but after Crazy Heart, it seems foolish to ignore it.
Also, judging from the general tone of your predictions, you’re skewing way too young. I can’t imagine 13 of the acting nominees will be under 45… with many of them significantly younger. You may want to rethink that, especially in a category like actor that skews older… to snub Duvall here based on the relatively empty hype surrounding some hot young leading men suggests an ignorance of the category.
It’s August, Jeremy. If you think I actually believe this is the way things will turn out you have a lot to learn.
As for the Paltrow — never heard of it. Thanks for turning my attention to it and hopefully the predictions won’t be so “bizarre” to you next time.
“to snub Duvall here based on the relatively empty hype surrounding some hot young leading men suggests an ignorance of the category.”
LOL. Not at the suggestion that Duvall could get in, mind you (he may well sub out Eisenberg next week but I’ve been iffy given the release date and the fact that SPC could be spread thin, but 42 West will help), but more at the overall pompous nature of such a comment.
In a nutshell: Don’t get your panties in such a bunch.