Oh, okay then. I’ve held out longer than most, but with the summer mostly played out, and newly unveiled schedules for Venice and Toronto signifying that the fall film season is already breathing down our necks, now is as good a time as any to go on the record with some Oscar predictions.
In years past, I’ve had readers tell me that my predictions are tricky to access on the site — not a problem for me, since the fewer who found them, the more contained the embarrassment when they were proved hopelessly wrong. Nevertheless, we have heard you, and we have acted: at the bottom of Kris’s predictions on the sidebar, you will find a shiny new link to mine. You can’t beat progress.
As usual, if you like your predictions rational, grounded in inside information and frequently accurate, Kris is your man. (He’ll be updating his on August 23, by the way.) At these early stages, I go on a mixture of gut feeling, sudden hunches and a broken Ouija board I picked up for a fiver in a garage sale. I tend to get stronger inklings about what won’t get nominated than what will, which is why some of my picks have a placeholder feel to them.
For example, I’ve persuaded myself that “Inception” will miss out in the top races, but with the late-season surprise packages yet to reveal themselves, my substitutes don’t look that credible to me either. I admit I struggled to cobble together 10 titles for Best Picture, with so many upcoming prestige pics looking either uncertain or just plain unappetizing.
Meanwhile, I’m currently hedging my bets on two British entries. Most would put money on “Another Year,” given its Cannes blue-ribbon status and Mike Leigh’s wad of previous nominations, but I find myself questioning whether the film might prove too low-key and melancholy for the general votership. Could it face competition for the Brit vote from Nigel Cole’s sunnier comedy “Made in Dagenham,” currently getting “next ‘Full Monty’” buzz on its way to a prominent launch at Toronto? The Academy frequently likes its Britpics chirpy and digestible, and “Made in Dagenham” (already retitled from its original, less awards-friendly moniker “We Want Sex”) boasts five words very dear to voters’ hearts: “Based on a True Story.”
The film centers on the 1968 equal-rights strike by female workers at the Ford Dagenham factory in East London, with Sally Hawkins reportedly as its Norma Rae figure. Should the film gather any steam in the coming months, Hawkins’s presence could remind voters of her pointed 2008 snub for (funny how these names circle round) Mike Leigh’s “Happy-Go-Lucky.”
Of course, it could be nothing. We don’t know. It’s July, for Chrissakes. Next time I update my predictions, of course, I’ll have have seen a few more things. For now, enjoy.
Comments
53 responses to “I’ll give you 10 guesses”
Those are five words, Guy. :P But I’m glad I’m not alone in my slight eagerness to see Made in Dagenham. The trailer was appealing fluff, and I could see it ranging anywhere from the next The Full Monty to Calendar Girls (leaning towards the latter for several obvious reasons). It’s definitely got Golden Globe potential, that’s for sure. And, well, I’d definitely welcome the Hawkins nod. I still blame Jolie, but I blame Blanchett the year before for the need for a Jolie nom the following year. Silly hos.
As for the predictions, definitely daring. I’m gonna wager that your Nicholson prediction is akin to your steadfast Baldwin prediction last year–it just gives me the same sort of Christmas-hot-mess-rom-com vibes. Also, strange to see an Eisenberg prediction, yet not a Garfield one–the latter’s role as the wronged, unhinged man suggest bigger potential to me. Alas, loving the Gosling and Winter’s Bone in BP predix and I hope you’re right.
A note of reminder: Guy’s predictions will be linked at the bottom of the right sidebar from here on out.
James: Ugh, I originally used a different phrase and forgot to change the copy. I can count, honest.
The Eisenberg prediction is based purely on my knowledge of the roles as written in the source material, so you could well be right. And I maintain that that random BAFTA nod suggests I wasn’t that far off on Baldwin.
Right sidebar. ;)
Secretariat? That movie looks like it’s trying too hard too win Oscars.
I think you’ve underestimated “The King’s Speech”.
Kristin Scott Thomas? That’s a wish more than a prediction, right? :p
Oh and, Keira Knightley is in. That’s also a wish but from me :p (For Never Let..)
***Secretariat? That movie looks like it’s trying too hard too win Oscars.***
Aren’t those the kinds of movies that often make it in though?
I do not doubt your arithmetic, sir. I actually read in my head “Based on Real Events”, before I did a double take.
Also, I feel like defending Guy’s prediction here. We always aim to predict the most esteemed group of contenders possible within reason, but with this rule of 10 and last year’s The Blind Side, it’s clear that at least one pedantic feature can slip through the cracks. And Secretariat has just the kind of feel-good blandness suitable for filling that void.
Oh, I just noticed your comment has two parts. Your math is contagious!
Touché on the Baldwin :P. I see Nicholson at the Globes, but between he and Hoskins, I think there’s only room for one curmudgeon in a perky rom-com–I hope it’s Hoskins, as he was clearly robbed in 1986…grr.
And I’d love it actually if both Garfield and Eisenberg got in….I’ve just been a fanboy of Garfield’s since I randomly downloaded Boy A based on the teen angst appeal, and found my favorite 2008 film.
MOTION PICTURE
Black Swan*
Inception
The Kids Are Alright
The King´s Speech
Love and Other Drugs
Rabbit Hole
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
Tron Legacy
The Way Back
DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky/Black Swan*
Lisa Chodolenko/The Kids Are Alright
David Fincher/The Social Network
Tom Hooper/The King´s Speech
Peter Weir/The Way Back
ACTOR
Javier Bardem/Biutiful
Robert Duvall/Get Low
Colin Firth/The King´s Speech*
James Franco/127 Hours
Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine
ACTRESS
Annette Bening/The Kids Are Alright
Jennifer Lawrence/Winter´s Bone
Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs
Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole
Natalie Portman/Black Swan*
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale/The Fighter*
Ed Harris/The Way Back
Bill Murray/Get Low
Sam Rockwell/Conviction
Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are Alright
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Helena Bonham Carter/The King´s Speech
Rebecca Hall/The Town
Melissa Leo/The Fighter
Leslie Manville/Another Year*
Dianne Wiest/Rabbit Hole
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another Year
Black Swan*
The Kids Are Alright
The King´s Speech
What´s Wrong with Virginia
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Love and Other Drugs
Rabbit Hole
The Social Network
Toy Story 3*
The Way Back
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan
Inception
The Tree of Life*
Tron Legacy
The Way Back
FILM EDITING
Black Swan*
127 Hours
Inception
The Social Network
Tron Legacy
ART DIRECTION
Black Swan
Burlesque
The King´s Speech
Inception*
Tron Legacy
COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Burlesque*
The Conspirator
The King´s Speech
SOUND MIXING
127 Hours*
How To Train Your Dragon
Inception
Shutter Island
Tron Legacy
SOUND EDITING
127 Hours*
Inception
Iron Man 2
Toy Tory 3
Tron Legacy
VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: part I
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron Legacy*
ORIGINAL SCORE
Black Swan
How to Train Your Dragon*
Inception
Toy Story 3
The Tree of Life
Does the fact that Nowhere Boy got released in the UK in 2009 prevent it from being eligable?
Nope. Eligibility is determined by the US release dates only. =) Sometimes, certain films are released in other countries but sent to DVD in America–those are the ones that are never eligible.
i see Guy L. believes in “the fighter” and “kids are all right” but i again believe in “inception”
Interesting that you’re bullish on the score for “Deathly Hallows”, especially given that the franchise hasn’t received a music nomination since John Williams in 2004. Is that out of loyalty to Desplat, Guy, or are you optimistic about the film’s reception overall?
Saw Kids Are All Right. Hope they all get nominated. All terrific. But if Ruffalo can go supporting why can’t Moore? He had just as much screen time as Moore and Bening. Moore was good but Bening was better. Moore’s only shot is supporting.
Mia Wasawhatever is also very good in it.
No cinematography or music nods for “Inception”? Even if it misses the top races, I’d call these pretty safe bets
Interesting to see Barbara Hershey included for “Black Swan” in supporting but not Natalie Portman in lead. I’d like to see them both get nods, and Aronofsky has already steered 3 actors to nominations, all of whom deserved to win, IMO.
Screen time doesn’t matter, fran. We should know this by now after Anthony Hopkins in “The Silence of the Lambs”… ;)
Joe: Actually, I think both are on shaky ground.
They both certainly have a lot of things going for them. You got a perennial favorite man for cinematography, and you’ve got a sweeping, overbearing score. Not certain, true, but not quite out yet.
By the way, I FINALLY got the chance to see Toy Story 3 yesterday. Don’t feel so bad about being a crybaby…so am I.
I’m guessing the music branch will find a way to disqualify “Inception,” them being the most DQ-happy arm of the Academy.
I think Cinematography is a gimme nod for Inception. The Academy loves when Pfister lenses a Nolan film, you can now almost start setting your clock by it.
Zimmer I’ve always felt was on shaky ground. He’s only been nominated once since 2000, and it was for a bombastic score in a year where the Best Original Sccore theme was basically “Scores with hum-worthy tunes.” They were pretty eager to disqualify him what was sure to be a score frontrunner; that disqualification immensely hurt its momentum. I honestly think the Inception score is lesser than the Dark Knight score, but I think if (IF) the film can retain its buzz until awards season, then hopefully it’ll be undeniable (as well as all other parts of the film).
I’m am fully on-board with your Eisenberg prediction. The trailers/clips released so far seem fantastic, and his history of appearing in acclaimed films will certainly help his cause. I also think that the darker nature of this role and this film will support his case, given his past nature to appear in more quirky films.
“The Academy loves when Pfister lenses a Nolan film…”
The cinematography branch has nominated him three times, for his last three movies, yes. But let’s not take leaps yet.
Hans and others: Sure, Pfister may well get nominated — but I wouldn’t say his previous run of nominations makes it a done deal. Patterns are there to be broken, and I’m not convinced the lensing of “Inception” dazzles as much as “The Dark Knight.”
Jim T: The Scott Thomas pick isn’t just a wish, though I do like the performance very much. The film has Weinstein behind it, and it’s the kind of warm, wise supporting turn the Academy often favours. (I’m also considering Anne-Marie Duff, who has the flashier role in the same film, but is less familiar to US voters.)
Jeremy: The Harry Potter films have such an inconsistent track record with the Academy, so it’s a pretty blind guess on my part. But my reasoning is that Desplat is nearing default nominee status — and I’ve heard whispers that Terrence Malick isn’t using that much of his “Tree of Life” score. So Potter it is.
I love most of your predictions Guy! I think you did an excellent job dowsing throgh the possibilities to narrow down a pretty smart list of nominations. Since no one has seen a lot of the films that you’ve predicted, it is hard to tell one way or another if they will get in or not (which is a major DUH) but I really like a lot of your picks and hope that first time noms go to Sally Hawkins, Christian Bale, Jennifer Lawrence, and Mark Ruffalo. My only personal complaint (and not with you personally or your picks but in recognition of a general trend with the Oscars), I can’t help but feel like the prediction for Jack Nicholson seems like one of the yearly placeholder slots. Recently it seems there is always a “Judi Dench” slot where an esteemed actor (who has already won in the past) delivers a great performance but does nothing during the circuit and just kind of has their name pulled out of the hat on nomination morning. Last year I feel like Helen Mirren fulfilled that slot (she was good but she was absent from everything and the movie just came and went) and looking over your predictions that is my initial reaction for Jack Nicholson. This has nothing to do with his actual work in the film (or how he plays the nomination game), it just feels that way for me when I see that name in print with all the other actors that just feel more inspired. When I see the film I will probably end up loving it and thinking he deserves it (or maybe not) but I just thought I would put out my two cents since you have gone out on a limb to state what you think will make the cut. If that is the list I will be happy for sure, but we all know every year there are always people that get snubbed (like Tilda Swinton/Charlotte Gainsbourg last year which would have been way more interesting of a nomination than Helen Mirren) but that is just how the Oscars tend to operate as you have been keen to acknowledge in your predictions.
DEAR GOD THAT WAS LONG AND RAMBLING! I apologize now for the above post, this is just a comments thread there is no reason to write a thesis statement haha.
I’m soooo disappointed that you don’t have Michelle Williams down for Blue Valentine. I saw it at an advanced screening and she was absolutely wonderful…let’s hope both her and Gosling will be on the final ballots…
…and for the record I don’t see Julianne Moore making it at all if they campaign her in lead. I thought she was by far the weakest out of the three leads. Her final monologue towards the end of the film was a hot mess for me.
Pfister is becoming for lensers what Schoonmaker is for editors, one of their biggest and most visible stars. I think a default nomination is in order. Chalk up Batman 3 right now too. Merit is hardly what we are discussing here.
Good of you to mention Dagenham. I googled it and saw the trailer. It looks like a harmless diversion and Hawkins is almost making the upgrade to drop dead gorgeous.
Guy, have you seen Toy Story 3 yet? What did you make of it?
Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, Inglourious Basterds…
The Academy went up to 10 in order to include these blockbusters.
Winter’s Bone, Made in Dagenham, Another Year… it sounds good to me, but it won’t happen.
If you think Inception is out (I don’t agree), then you should go for a movie that’s gonna be seen by more than 69 people. The only one in your list is Toy Story 3, and remember last year both Star Trek and The Hangover went close to get nominated.
All the early predictions I see these days are too indie and they are entirely based on quality. The Academy won’t go that way.
Well, SOME will be based on quality and caliber. (And I consider District 9 a part of that, for what it’s worth.) So of those 3 you mentioned, wouldn’t you say Winter’s Bone has the most feasible shot being the critically-acclaimed Sundance-winning indie darling from the first half of the year?
Hmm, half agreement w/Kris T10. Vs. Kris’ predictions, I prefer his by far in Actor for all 3 of those he includes, in Supp Actor because I don’t feel like seeing Nicholson nominated again, & in Costumes because SATC2 is a blight.
I prefer yours in Adapted b/c it lacks Dragon, Art w/Potter, Score w/Potter/Toy, Sound Edit w/Toy.
Roger: Maybe so, maybe no. It’s always a mistake to base one’s predictions on the profile of the previous year’s nominations — not two Oscar years are like. 2009 had an unusual amount of mainstream crossover hits that garnered a certain pop-culture cache — this year simply doesn’t have as many. Besides “Toy Story 3” and “Inception,” what blockbusters do you see as legitimate contenders for a Best Picture nod? I’m genuinely curious.
But you didn’t put Inception in! :)
Honestly, the reason why they (AMPAS) went from 5 to 10 has a name: Chris Nolan. That guy is too good to be ignored… again! Inception is not going to win probably (it will be nominated for sure), but Nolan could even get the Oscar if the movie keeps doing well at the box office and it’s critically acclaimed. Nolan is not James Cameron. He’s never won, he’s british and there will be no woman waiting to make History this year.
Guy, you know films’ release dates much better than me. Is there any mainstream comedy coming soon à la The Hangover? Any The Blind Side? Or a musical (are they still alive?) I’m not thinking in Eclipse or The A-Team, but that kind of movie the Globes just love, maybe Burlesque or something like that.
You’re right. Every Oscar year is different. But, with 10 nominees, I’m not seeing Toy Story 3 as the only one crossing the 100 million $ frontier.
Guy, you didn’t answer my question!
Guy argued Secreteriat might fill a “Blind Side” spot.
FYI, the Academy screening of Inception was not a raving success and had walk-outs. So everyone thinking the film is a shoo-in for best pic, regardless of the 10, regardless of TDK, regardless of the money, would do well to consider the finer details, as in: it just didn’t play that well to the audience we’re concerned with here.
Just a note. I’ll probably keep it in when I update in a few weeks, if only because nothing else really seems to stack up…yet. But the film is not in the easy chair. At…all. So no reason to think Guy is so out to lunch for having the gall to snub it in his predix.
“Inception” for best editing?
Let’s see .. but I have very strong feeling Naomi Watts is definitely up there for Best Actress for Fair Game …
If Dagenham gets nominated, or Winter’s Bone…I will eat my hat, and my jacket.
Don’t underestimate. I believe Frozen River would’ve been nominated in 2008, courtesy of Sundance, which really seems to be getting voters talking lately. (Ryan Gosling, Amy Adams, Laura Linney, Melissa Leo, Precious–all speak volumes of support within the actors’ branch.) And Courtney Hunt’s surprise Original Screenplay nomination tells us WB making the cut isn’t all that far-fetched.
Also, on FG, I don’t trust it. I thought Watts looked lazy and unimpressive in the clips I’ve seen. Plus, the film received mixed reception @ Cannes. Penn looks great in it, but I don’t see it as any more than a possibly good, engrossing drama.
In terms of Cannes reception, remember…Inglourious Basterds also got a mixed reaction at Cannes…we see how that turned out.
I’m going to stand by my thoughts to the bitter end that we’ll see one Hurt Locker audience sized film nominated, the rest will be populated with mid-level successes and two big ones (Inception and Toy Story 3).
Having seen “Fair Game,” I just don’t see Naomi Watts being one of the last women standing in a Best Actress race that is already pretty crowded. She does a respectable job, but it’s not particularly showy work, and critics aren’t going to get behind it in a big way. (As for Penn, not a chance.)
@Kyle: Yeah, probably just one, but maybe two. It’s less about the audience size for me, rather than the slot it fits. WB is to THL what TKAAR is to IB, perhaps? Anything can happen, especially in a year where we don’t have heavyweight films on the horizon like last year’s mysterious December quartet (most of which were Oscarfail).
@Guy: Yeah, I don’t think he’d get in, I’m just saying he looks more appealing to me in the film. But I agree 100%; race is too crowded already and my gut instinct says the same regarding the likely (lack of) mass support.
44, I’m guessing you’re referring to “Nine”, “The Lovely Bones” and “Invictus”.
Ohh ya, you betcha, yeah.
my humble, second-draft best pic predictions:
1. the american
2. black swan
3. inception
4. the kids are all right
5. love and other drugs
6. never let me go
7. the social network
8. somewhere
9. toy story 3
10. the tree of life (assuming it’s released)
i think winter’s bone is certainly deserving, but will have to be satisfied with best actress and (maybe?) best adapted nominations. to my mind, it’s sitting in the same dull waiting room as i am love, which will be lucky to scrape any of the nods it deserves (actress, foreign, score, etc.).
your bravest predictions are probably true grit and inside job — i think the coens will have a hard time pulling an oscar-friendly movie out of a western remake. the academy was a little too kind to them last year, and they might have already maxed-out their shoot-em-up credibility. plus that, there’s too much riding on the shoulders of that newcomer girl. and i’d be surprised if such a politically divisive documentary was the first to break into the big leagues — something which, i have to admit, i hope never happens myself. the mixture of fictional and nonfiction storytelling just gives me the heebie-jeebies.
and for the record, i think inception was entertaining, but nowhere near as refreshing as i thought it would be. whereas the dark knight and the prestige represent the height of nolan’s concision, i think inception brought back his sloppier, memento-ish side that a lot of people find unappealing. i wouldn’t be surprised if the academy was tired of thinking about it by the end of the year, but i do think snubbing it would cause a pretty big stir…
I think Inception is in, simply because of these factors:
Sure, the older member of the Academy won’t vote for it (it seems), but a lot of actors, and people who know their sh*t will vote it in a lot of the technical categories – they vote for BP, too.
Also, just like Weinstein can manipulate votes, I think a lot of insiders will tell voters to suck it up and vote for it whether they would have or not becase it’s a challenging film that is critically well-received, went over great with audiences, and that the Top 10 purpose was probably because of TDK/Nolan in the 1st place.
Then again, my wheels are just spinning in my head and I could be completely wrong/misguided on all fronts.
Those are my thoughts for now.
JJ, I think based on what Kris said, those factors might be overwhelmed by the fact that they just didn’t like it that much.
As far as weaker alternative entries for those last 2 or 3 spots, it’s important to consider what AMPAS did choose last time. They didn’t go for “Doubt,” “Revolutionary Road,” or “Gran Torino.” They opted for a film with comparatively soft critical support. If they don’t particularly like it, may well find something that dismays bloggers–a la “The Blind Side” or mediocre bait.
Also, while “The Dark Knight” was a factor, it may not have been the only or most important reason as many posit. The ceremony for the 2007 pictures was the lowest rated in years.
I looked into box office gross trends over many years with the Oscar nominees. All but one year from 1953-2003 (year of release), at least one film among the top 10 grossing movies of the year , domestically. From 2004-2008, there were no BP nods that cracked the top 10 of their respective year. If there were more hits and ratings hadn’t declined so much, they might not have gone for the expansion.
You know, you shouldn’t just tell us statistics like that and NOT reveal which year between 1953-2003 is the year without a Top 10 box office hit nominated for BP. =P Just keepin’ it real, yo.