OFF THE CARPET: ‘Inception’ to the rule?

As I look over the last week of activity, believe me, I’m as over-inundated with “Inception” talk as the next guy. But it is the film that captured a collective imagination throughout the country this weekend and, therefore, it has been a mainstay on the front page.

I purposely held the latest Oscar column until today because I wanted to see how profound its release would truly be. I wanted to know what kind of a mark it would make at the box office, how the masses would react, how the critics would leverage it this way or that. And I haven’t come up with anything more or less definitive, in my mind, than what I’ve already mapped out.

In the world of Oscar, there might just be three Best Picture nominees already in the marketplace, as Nathaniel Rogers shrewdly noted in a recent column. That’s actually kind of a miracle this early in the season. But it’s also interesting to note that each film — “Toy Story 3,” “The Kids Are All Right” and “Inception” — probably needed the extra five slots to make it in (assuming they all do get in).

But back to the sci-fi mind-bender of the moment, I would say “Inception” has the steepest climb of this first-half trilogy of legitimate contenders. And I’m not so sure that with a Best Picture nomination comes recognition for Christopher Nolan from his fellow directors, either. Or even his fellow screenwriters — two branches that opted out of support just two years ago, for a much more critically-accepted film.

And I also don’t know how far the “he was robbed” rally cry will really go for Academy types. But I’ve been over this before. And I think the very fact that “Inception” is even in the discussion is a huge win already.

But the film had better make the most of its moment, right here, right now, because the box office won’t likely be anything of landmark importance and other contenders are on the horizon, waiting to pounce.

I’ve been holding out for confirmation on a 2010 release for Danny Boyle’s “127 Hours,” and it seems the film is moving along swimmingly, testing already, etc. I’d say it’s locking in as a significant hopeful in an interestingly diverse Fox Searchlight stable.

Paramount’s “The Fighter,” meanwhile, is exciting the powers that be behind the scenes, especially in the performance arena. Star Mark Wahlberg has said the film probably won’t play the fall festival circuit and may likely “just go out and go big,” so we’ll be waiting a while before legitimate reactions start to trickle in. Nevertheless, I actually think it’s one of the big contenders of the upcoming season.

Speaking of Paramount, as mentioned in the most recent Oscar Talk, there will be a full-blown Best Picture push for “How to Train Your Dragon.” God bless ’em.

Former Lionsgate and Weinstein Company marketing whiz Tom Ortenberg will be consulting on Apparition’s “The Tree of Life,” which is still very much in limbo as an awards prospect. He’ll also be helping out with Peter Weir’s “The Way Back,” which recently screened to the major studios and didn’t get a bite from a single one. That doesn’t mean it’s not a good film, mind you, but the vibe I’m getting is most aren’t sure how to market it. Hollywood is being quite conservative lately.

Weir’s film joins “Biutiful” in that group, actually.

Elsewhere, Sony launched a hot trailer for “The Social Network” recently, showcasing what looks to be a solid leading turn from Jesse Eisenberg. And I’m hearing Andrew Garfield’s work on the film helped him land his “Spider-Man” gig at the same studio, so…watch out.

If it sounds like I’m spinning my wheels it’s because I am. There’s just very little to talk about, even with the most anticipated film of the summer just a few days old. So let’s just get to the predictions update and call it a day, m’kay?

The Contenders section has been tidied up and the predictions sidebar has been updated in full.  Cut loose with your thoughts on the Oscar potential of “Inception” in the comments section below.  I’d be interested to hear what everyone has to say.