As I look over the last week of activity, believe me, I’m as over-inundated with “Inception” talk as the next guy. But it is the film that captured a collective imagination throughout the country this weekend and, therefore, it has been a mainstay on the front page.
I purposely held the latest Oscar column until today because I wanted to see how profound its release would truly be. I wanted to know what kind of a mark it would make at the box office, how the masses would react, how the critics would leverage it this way or that. And I haven’t come up with anything more or less definitive, in my mind, than what I’ve already mapped out.
In the world of Oscar, there might just be three Best Picture nominees already in the marketplace, as Nathaniel Rogers shrewdly noted in a recent column. That’s actually kind of a miracle this early in the season. But it’s also interesting to note that each film — “Toy Story 3,” “The Kids Are All Right” and “Inception” — probably needed the extra five slots to make it in (assuming they all do get in).
But back to the sci-fi mind-bender of the moment, I would say “Inception” has the steepest climb of this first-half trilogy of legitimate contenders. And I’m not so sure that with a Best Picture nomination comes recognition for Christopher Nolan from his fellow directors, either. Or even his fellow screenwriters — two branches that opted out of support just two years ago, for a much more critically-accepted film.
And I also don’t know how far the “he was robbed” rally cry will really go for Academy types. But I’ve been over this before. And I think the very fact that “Inception” is even in the discussion is a huge win already.
But the film had better make the most of its moment, right here, right now, because the box office won’t likely be anything of landmark importance and other contenders are on the horizon, waiting to pounce.
I’ve been holding out for confirmation on a 2010 release for Danny Boyle’s “127 Hours,” and it seems the film is moving along swimmingly, testing already, etc. I’d say it’s locking in as a significant hopeful in an interestingly diverse Fox Searchlight stable.
Paramount’s “The Fighter,” meanwhile, is exciting the powers that be behind the scenes, especially in the performance arena. Star Mark Wahlberg has said the film probably won’t play the fall festival circuit and may likely “just go out and go big,” so we’ll be waiting a while before legitimate reactions start to trickle in. Nevertheless, I actually think it’s one of the big contenders of the upcoming season.
Speaking of Paramount, as mentioned in the most recent Oscar Talk, there will be a full-blown Best Picture push for “How to Train Your Dragon.” God bless ’em.
Former Lionsgate and Weinstein Company marketing whiz Tom Ortenberg will be consulting on Apparition’s “The Tree of Life,” which is still very much in limbo as an awards prospect. He’ll also be helping out with Peter Weir’s “The Way Back,” which recently screened to the major studios and didn’t get a bite from a single one. That doesn’t mean it’s not a good film, mind you, but the vibe I’m getting is most aren’t sure how to market it. Hollywood is being quite conservative lately.
Weir’s film joins “Biutiful” in that group, actually.
Elsewhere, Sony launched a hot trailer for “The Social Network” recently, showcasing what looks to be a solid leading turn from Jesse Eisenberg. And I’m hearing Andrew Garfield’s work on the film helped him land his “Spider-Man” gig at the same studio, so…watch out.
If it sounds like I’m spinning my wheels it’s because I am. There’s just very little to talk about, even with the most anticipated film of the summer just a few days old. So let’s just get to the predictions update and call it a day, m’kay?
The Contenders section has been tidied up and the predictions sidebar has been updated in full. Cut loose with your thoughts on the Oscar potential of “Inception” in the comments section below. I’d be interested to hear what everyone has to say.
Comments
102 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: ‘Inception’ to the rule?”
The only HP that should’ve been nominated was HP3, thanks to slick direction by Cúaron and dark teen angst brilliance. Loved Prisoner of Azkaban (and Goblet of Fire was really good, too). I would’ve easily nominated HP3 over almost all of the BP nominees, save for Sideways. God, I hate 2004(‘s Oscars).
Btw, @Davin, at this point, I’m not even sure Black Swan will be released this year. It’s looking more and more likely to be thrusted into 2011. And @Davidraider88, I’m feeling you regarding TSN–not sure it’ll get Pic or Director nods, but I think Garfield has been on the rise and he’s at least plausible. Screenplay only if they hate all other adapted works, but I’m still not sold, since Sorkin’s writing is rather…stupid.
where is the buzz for Jhonny Depp????
Louis, I was wondering the same thing. I guess it depends on how “The Rum Diary” turns out. No one seems sure if it’s even coming out this year, so that’s the main thing.
Kris clearly hasn’t seen BLUE VALENTINE yet. No way will Hilary Swank be there ahead of Michelle Williams, nor Jake Gyllenhaal ahead of Gosling.
I just saw “Inception” this afternoon, and I came away with great admiration–for “The Matrix.” I feel like I live in a different universe from the one in which most of the posters above live, since I considered the following the weakest elements in the film: the editing (by far the greatest weakness–the rhythm of the scenes and the pacing of the film as a whole were simply upleasant), the script (which, as RichardA noted, spends a lot of time setting up its own rules and then cheats on the rules it sets up), and Marion Cotillard’s performance (which really wasn’t her fault: the part had zero range). I have to take issue with Kris’s earlier posting, which called the film cerebral. To be cerebral, the ideas need to be compelling and have some depth (see “The Matrix”). I realize that it will be difficult to find ten other films to nominate, but who exactly will get behind this film among academy members? Not the writers, not the directors, not the actors, and not the animators.
If The Blind Side can get in with 10, so can Inception. And I would call Inception a lock with the BFCA, DGA, PGA, and BAFTAs. With a movie so bold and ambitious and original with its director’s name all over it (Nolan is #1 on IMDb’s Star Meter, can’t remember last time a director did that), I feel safe in saying Nolan gets a director nomination. And if Nolan gets a director nomination than his movie gets a Best Pic nom, is someone really willing to bet that in a field of 10, a nominated director won’t have his movie represented?
thierry: Oh, do tell us how Conviction and Love and Other Drugs are, since you’ve clearly seen both.
Frank: Projecting your own opinion on to others and passing it off as fact doesn’t make it so. I must have missed the memo that you can see the future and read the minds of academy members.
Frank Lee: In a movie like “Inception” where the biggest star of the film is the director, you don’t think other directors will get behind it? Have to say I disagree.
Nolan has taken a giant studio summer blockbuster and turned in the ultimate auteur film. Directors will get behind this more than anyone
Joe W: Exactly. He turned a tentpole summer blockbuster into his most personal film. The DGA and WGA nominations for The Dark Knight proved that he is one of the most respected and prominent auteurs out there.
Look, you can bring up The Blind Side to warrant a nomination for anything. The fact is, that was a perfect storm of events that happened in a bubble. It doesn’t mean that the Academy has decided to allow one mainstream, mediocre film in the field per year.
Chad: Again, projecting one’s own opinion of a film onto whether or not a film will be nominated is folly. None of us here are psychics, so there’s no way we will know what the academy thinks of Inception until nominations are announced.
I do kind of agree with Chad regarding bringing “The Blind Side” up to justify any nomination. I think a more apt comparison for a Blind Side-type nomination would be if “Shutter Island” makes it in, a mixed-reception film that got/gets in on the strength of its box office and passionate support, and possibly a lead acting contender (remember, people were still debating whether Bullock would even get a nom by the time the Critics Choice rolled around).
That said, I think Inception is above and beyond either of those two films and, honestly, shouldn’t even be in the same conversation. I honestly think its speaks to the strength of the film if it’s being both hailed and criticized for its producing, directing, acting, writing, and editing. So many facets to consider that I think come together wonderfully in the end product.
I don’t want to say “This will get nominated”, but I just have a hard time seeing how it doesn’t.
Hans: Best take on it so far. That there is so much passionate debate on the film is only a good thing. Honestly, right now, I’d rather just continue discussing the film than worrying about Oscars, as things always turn ugly on the interwebs when Oscars are mentioned. The same thing happened with The Dark Knight, Benjamin Button, WALL-E, The Hurt Locker, Avatar, and Inglourious Basterds. Why not savor the moment and bask in the calm before the storm in the summer and just talk about the film itself? Oscars won’t be a big talking point for months, enjoy it while it lasts.
Last thought on The Blind Side. If anything, that film proves that Warner Bros. knows how to campaign a film. Look at their savvy campaigns for The Blind Side, The Departed, The Dark Knight (8 nominations and two wins including an actor win is a big deal for the genre, no matter how you slice it), Letters from Iwo Jima, etc. this past decade proves this.
I don’t understand how anyone can think that Marion Cotillard’s part had no range. I was blown away by her role and performance and I think she was the heart and soul of the film. I really hope she gets a nomination.
What really doesn’t compute for me if the notion that the film is emotionally cold. If anything, I completely agree with Anne Thompson that this is Nolan’s warmest film. The film is packed with emotion. Cobb’s emotional journey and drive to come home to his children is what drives the film. And as Kris already pointed out, there is something deeply moving and profound
SPOILER
about watching a nearly broken man come to grips with a vengeful person who isn’t the woman he loved, but rather the manifestation of the guilt and pain he has directed inwards all this time. That speaks more to me than a character whose emotions are like signposts saying “THIS CHARACTER IS SAD”. It’s more subtle and smarter than that.
At this point last year we had seen our Best film, Director, and so on. That is not the case this year. I think we’ve seen our best supporting actress, if they’ve the smarts to play Annette Bening in that category. I think Toy Story 3 will take best Animated Feature. And Inception will pick up a bunch of technical awards — editing, cinematography, maybe score. But where is our Best Film? The Coens have had their moment in the sun, otherwise True Grit would be a strong contender. The Social Network looks dull and insubstantial. Affleck’s The Town could be something. I’ve got my eye on just one film at the moment: Love and Other Drugs, which I think could give us actress, film and director.
Tom: I think last year was a fluke. Rarely do you see the film that is going to sweep this early in the year. Only a few examples of that happening that I can think of
The Silence of the Lambs
Gladiator
The Hurt Locker
any others?
I just noticed that you have five nominees listed for Animated Feature. Are you assuming that since the required running time was lowered that there will be more entries, or were the rules changed for the same reason?
Also, you still think The Last Airbender might be nominated for Score? Sure, is is good and it is by James Newton Howard, and movies with some of the worst reviews of their year have been nominated in technical categories, but really?
Mr. F: Airbender was indeed one of the worst films of the year, the biggest disappointment/failure of the year, and all around a terrible film. But Howard’s score remains one of the best reviewed soundtracks/scores of the year. So it’s a 50/50 thing right now methinks.
Howard got in with another derided Shyamalan film, The Village, so you can’t count him out.
When I am sitting up tense in my seat, digging my nails into my palms anticipating whether a character is going to die or not, I don’t think I can call a film emotionally cold.
Mike wrote: “I don’t understand how anyone can think that Marion Cotillard’s part had no range. I was blown away by her role and performance and I think she was the heart and soul of the film.” What Mike didn’t write is a description of the RANGE of the role. Cotillard went from weepy-crazy to murderous-crazy and back to weepy-crazy about five or six times. She’s a lovely woman and a talented actor, but the role was limited by the requirements of the script. This entire discussion reminds me of last year right after I saw “Where the Wild Things Are” on one of the longest afternoons of my life. A number of people on this site were praising the movie, especially for its emotional resonance (!), and predicting major Oscar recognition. Am I taking crazy pills? I asked myself. Did we see the same movie? Anyway, we’ll see what happens next weekend at the box office. Maybe “Inception” will generate good word-of-mouth and its take won’t drop all that much, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Frank: You’re deluding yourself if you think “Inception” doesn’t have good word of mouth right now. Have you seen Twitter or Facebook in the last few days? People are going nuts about this film. It’s been trending on twitter for 4 days straight, and word of mouth is extremely positive. People are loving it and wanting to go back for more.
And the box-office is showing its strong word of mouth. Its Saturday box office increased from Friday, despite the fact that Friday also included midnight showings. The average summer film opener will drop anywhere from 20-30% from Saturday to Sunday, but Inception only dropped 12%, staying flat with Friday minus the midnight showings.
It’s a real possibility that it will be Salt next week. After that, no other real summer competition coming up…who knows how long this might last?
I think Inception will beat Salt. I don’t know anybody who is excited to see that movie. People will be going to see Inception for their second or third time, or people will be going to see Inception to see what everyone has been talking about the past week.
I think Inception will be sticking around quite a bit. Maybe Dinner for Shmucks (god that movie looks awful) will beat it the following week but who knows.
Kevin K: Add “Crash,” “Braveheart” and “Forrest Gump” to your list of recent (ish) winners released in the first half of the year.
By the way, the people who keep bringing up “The Blind Side” as justification for predicting a nom for any mainstream hit should bear in mind that it wasn’t purely the film’s box office that got it the votes — as unimaginable as it may seem to some, a lot of people were very moved by it. Emotion will get you far.
Good call Guy. I almost added Saving Private Ryan, but then was like, wait…right. LOL.
I think a lot of people were moved by Inception. I know I was. People on twitter and facebook keep telling me how emotional the film was and how moving Cobb’s journey was. It’s not being called cold by as many people as one might think.
One of those films that is gonna need passion behind it from general audiences and strong box office reception for the most part. As long as it kept in discussion it has a good shot. I figure the dvd will be released when…early December?
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Original Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Cinematography
Best Art Direction
Best Score
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Those are my bets, but wow 10 nominations. I don’t know about that. Maybe take out director and Picture, and we get another TDK with 8 noms, right? God I hope not. I suppose the academy doesn’t look at a film and how it holds up or gets better on repeated viewings, right?
Be a shame if Nolan misses out. This is his film and no one elses.
How to Train Your Dragon has no chance to be nominated. It is not even sure in animated category.
I agree that Dragon probably has little chance for best picture, but I wonder if it is a reaction to how Paramount being reluctant to kick off a Star Trek campaign earlier last year (they actually were choosing to put campaign efforts behind Lovely Bones, which once anyone saw the film was clearly not going to get in) maybe cost them a BP nomination.
With five slots likely though it is hard to see Dragon missing animated feature, it should get in even with three slots but the category has been know to surprise us: Jimmy Neutron, Shark Tale, Surf’s Up, Secret of Kells.
Ben: Yeah, Paramount dropped the ball last year with Star Trek, which could have easily gotten in the Big 10 had they put their weight behind it. I loved The Lovely Bones, but I agree there was no way it was getting attention outside of Stanely Tucci. Star Trek was a far more agreeable and acclaimed film. Hopefully this year Paramount learned from their mistakes. I say Dragon gets in if a lot of fall releases disappoint. But what concerns me is that the film came out in March and still hasn’t been announced for a DVD & Blu-Ray release. Hell, even Iron Man 2 has been announced for September, so what’s takign Paramount so long for their most critically acclaimed film one of of their biggest commercial successes of the year? Maybe the delayed dvd release does have something to do with the planned awards campaign?
Aren’t animated films usually targeted for release during the Christmas shopping season? Or is that just Pixar.
It generally depends on the release date of the film. How to Train Your Dragon was released way back in March, you’d think they would have announced something resembling a dvd release date by now. It’s not like the film won’t do well on home video, it did gangbusters business for a spring release in theatres.
Strong predictions, Kris.
At this point, with the tremendous word-of-mouth generated by Inception (I can’t believe no one’s mentioned its IMDB rating… right now its #3 overall after Shawshank and Godfather – and will likely fall… but this is a tremendous start!) and its box office performance (including a Monday performance that rivaled the original Pirates of the Caribbean – which was a word-of-mouth sensation) will only help matters. I can’t see this not getting in. Its become somewhat of a summer phenomenon (in a summer without much phenomena, except for perhaps Toy Story 3).
Speaking of which… I’m surprised you did not include Toy Story 3 in either of your sound categories. Pixar is becoming quite consistent in getting a Sound Editing nomination, and has gotten an occasional Mixing nomination as well. With a huge campaign by Disney/Pixar (you know they’re gonna do it)… I have to think that TS3 will get into more categories than Picture, Screenplay, Animated and Song…
I was surprised to see Dragon in Editing but not TS3 (although I think Dragon is worthy… I just think people will mark their ballot for TS3 before Dragon if given the choice).
Not when you look at the names behind the work. But it could go either way, really.
“Hollywood is being quite conservative lately.” Hollywood is being stupid, I would rather see the Way Back than the crap that is being released in the theatres.
The only movies that interest me so far this year has been Inception and the Kids are Allright
You’re gonna be kicking yourselves for doubting this, guys.
I’m not quite sure if this is the official FoxSearchlight website but it has the Descendants coming out on December 18th this year. Do you know anything about this, or how it could affect the oscar race?
Also it has 127 Hours coming out on November 1st.
http://content.foxsearchlight.com/films/node/4365
I don’t think anyone “kicked themselves” for doubting Basterds or District 9. We don’t know what the field is going to be like year in and year out, and Inception isn’t universally loved.
That being said, I think being the technical dazzler that it is, Inception will have broad support. I do think it’s going to get 7-9 noms- no acting, no direction, screenplay and picture maybes. Ultimately, under the 10, there are not going to be many movies that get six or seven noms without a BP nod. I mean, Nine and Star Trek had 4 nods each, Crazy Heart had 3. District 9 had four, one of which was BP.
I just don’t think something that is destined to get a big slew of noms is going to be denied BP. But is it set in stone? Heck no.
Have you guys seen this?
http://blogs.suntimes.com/ebert/2010/07/the_myth_of_a_perfect_film.html
This is a real wild card but assuming it’s eligible, Noomi Repace for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo? It is certainly one of most acclaimed performances of the year and it has made a lot of money at the box office. I don’t see Hilary Swank getting a nomination (I think that movie is going to bomb), I don’t see Hathaway getting a nomination, and it will either be Moore or Benning for The Kids Are All Right. If there was to be a left field nomination in that category, I think it would be her.
Also as far as The Matrix comparison, had there been 10 nominees in 1999, The Matrix would have absolutely got in and it is even possible that it would have won. I really wonder how far The Matrix was from getting a Best Picture nomination. It swept the nominations it got and that includes editing.
As far as predictions right now:
Best Picture:
127 Hours
Blue Valentine
Inception*
It’s Kind of a Funny Story
The Kids Are All Right
The Town
Toy Story 3
Tree of Life
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
Best Director:
Ben Affleck – The Town
Danny Boyle – 127 Hours
Debra Granik – Winter’s Bone
Terrence Malick – Tree of Life*
Christopher Nolan – Inception
Best Actor:
Stephen Dorff – Somewhere
Robert Duvall
Colin Farrell – The Way Back
James Franco – 127 Hours*
Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine
Best Actress:
Annette Benning – The Kids Are All Right
Rebecca Hall – The Town
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine*
Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale – The Fighter
Ed Harris – The Way Back*
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone
Bill Murray – Get Low
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
Best Supporting Actress:
Jessica Chastain – Tree of Life
Mila Kunis – Black Swan
Lesley Manville – Another Year
Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right*
Freida Pinto – Miral
Best Original Screenplay:
127 Hours
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
Get Low
Inception*
Best Adapted Screenplay:
It’s Kind of a Funny Story
The Town
True Grit
The Way Back
Winter’s Bone*
In semi-related news, Facebook reached its 500 millionth user today.
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9179506/Facebook_hits_milestone_Half_a_billion_users
Well, in a better and more observant world, DiCaprio would be nominated for one of his roles here. Both are deserving and he easily carries two films, although my fave is still Shutter Island. Extraordinary performances that really become much more extraordinary on successive viewing. I find it extremely odd that he doesn’t get that much respect here.
I always love this time of year before Toronto, in the dead of summer, when anything is possible and almost every movie has its shot. I would love to see “How To Train Your Dragon” get a best picture nomination – it was beautiful and had heart. And I think with ten best picture nominees, whose to say what kind of genres can make a showing where when limited to five, it wasn’t possible for 2 animated movies to get in. With ten, who knows? So if “Toy Story 3” gets a BP nomination, why not “How To Train Your Dragon?” Depending on how this all shakes out when films are actually seen, maybe this is the year where animation gets its just due. Heck, how about a doc in the top ten? Looks to be a great year for docs as well. I love pondering it all!
I think “The Tillman Story” will be nominated for Best Picture. It’s a powerful movie that blows the whistle on a cover-up in regards to the actual death of Pat Tillman. Hollywood likes a movie that is bold and exposes the truth.
The Oscars are way too far off to predict everything, so I’ll give my main 3 shoe-ins for each category (5 for Best Picture).
PICTURE
The Fighter – early buzz has been strong, good premise, just got a good feeling about this one
Hereafter – Invictus wasn’t what people thought, but now Eastwood is returning to the themes he knows best: life and death and human relationships. His last couple films with those themes were all bathed in Oscar glory
Inception – while I think revenge on Nolan’s behalf is a dumb excuse to nominate a film, I still think Inception is too large to be ignored, and has been a huge hit among producers
The Social Network – the most relevant film of the year, and relevance goes a long way, not to mention the brilliant script; also, David Fincher is directing
The Way Back – it’s Peter Weir’s big return, and with it’s grand scale and prominent themes, we could finally have our first truly great 20th century war film in years
DIRECTOR
Hereafter – Clint Eastwood – I’m really banking on this film to succeed hugely
Inception – Christopher Nolan – if anything, Inception is a director’s paradise, and no matter what you thought of the film, nobody can deny how brightly Nolan’s immensely powerful classical directing style shines
The Social Network – David Fincher – the lately coveted director is taking on his strangest project yet, and it’s bound to be rewarding
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Hereafter – again, I have this feeling that this movie is going to hit hard, and if it does, a screenplay nomination is guaranteed. Besides, it’s not like Peter Morgan hasn’t had his fun with this category before…
The Kids Are All Right – already being acclaimed for its witty and heartwarming script, this possible best picture contender will definitely stand out in the writing category
Inception – no matter what you thought of the film, you can’t argue that it’s multiple levels and intensely controversial ending had people talking – correction, HAS people talking – and this simply will not be ignored.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Never Let Me Go – the movie’s lack of best picture love will probably be made up for here
The Social Network – I have read the script, and the writing is fast paced and ridiculously clever social commentary
Winter’s Bone – the widely successful indie film came out too early in the year and did not have the relevance that helped The Hurt Locker be the summer indie survivor from last year, but as with Never Let Me Go, it will be rewarded here
LEAD ACTOR
James Franco – Howl – while a lot of people are talking about 127 Hours, my money is on Franco’s performance in the wildly artsy Howl
Javier Bardem – Biutiful – while the film has been called both incredible and monotonous, Bardem’s early reception has been unanimously powerful
Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine – he’s gotten massive recognition for the past several months. He’s also one of the best actors of his generation. It’s time for his second nomination.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ed Harris – The Way Back – sure to be the biggest performance in the movie, I’d put my money on this veteran to soar
Christian Bale – The Fighter – Bale’s rough-n-tough role will earn him his long deserved first nomination
Justin Timberlake – The Social Network – Justin Timberlake getting an Oscar nomination? No way, you say? Well take a step back: interesting and comic character coming in strong in the final act of the film and exiting with a bang. Still saying no way?
LEAD ACTRESS
Anette Bening – The Kids Are All Right – is there anyone who DOESN’T think this will happen??
Natalie Portman – Black Swan – the film, as with all of Aronofky’s work, is going to be widely polarized, but Portman’s performance will be tough to ignore
Jessica Lawrence – this young actress blew the faces off the audiences of Winter’s Bone in one of the best debut roles I’ve ever seen
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right – again, is there anyone who DOESN’T think this will happen??
Keira Knightly – Never Let Me Go – Knightly has always been a strong actress, and this dystopian drama may have the stuff she needs to grab a nomination
Bryce Dallas Howard – Hereafter – with a relatively quiet supporting actress race thus far, my money is on a surprise standout from Howard. Also, I’m really going all out on Hereafter. Don’t do me wrong, Clint.