As I look over the last week of activity, believe me, I’m as over-inundated with “Inception” talk as the next guy. But it is the film that captured a collective imagination throughout the country this weekend and, therefore, it has been a mainstay on the front page.
I purposely held the latest Oscar column until today because I wanted to see how profound its release would truly be. I wanted to know what kind of a mark it would make at the box office, how the masses would react, how the critics would leverage it this way or that. And I haven’t come up with anything more or less definitive, in my mind, than what I’ve already mapped out.
In the world of Oscar, there might just be three Best Picture nominees already in the marketplace, as Nathaniel Rogers shrewdly noted in a recent column. That’s actually kind of a miracle this early in the season. But it’s also interesting to note that each film — “Toy Story 3,” “The Kids Are All Right” and “Inception” — probably needed the extra five slots to make it in (assuming they all do get in).
But back to the sci-fi mind-bender of the moment, I would say “Inception” has the steepest climb of this first-half trilogy of legitimate contenders. And I’m not so sure that with a Best Picture nomination comes recognition for Christopher Nolan from his fellow directors, either. Or even his fellow screenwriters — two branches that opted out of support just two years ago, for a much more critically-accepted film.
And I also don’t know how far the “he was robbed” rally cry will really go for Academy types. But I’ve been over this before. And I think the very fact that “Inception” is even in the discussion is a huge win already.
But the film had better make the most of its moment, right here, right now, because the box office won’t likely be anything of landmark importance and other contenders are on the horizon, waiting to pounce.
I’ve been holding out for confirmation on a 2010 release for Danny Boyle’s “127 Hours,” and it seems the film is moving along swimmingly, testing already, etc. I’d say it’s locking in as a significant hopeful in an interestingly diverse Fox Searchlight stable.
Paramount’s “The Fighter,” meanwhile, is exciting the powers that be behind the scenes, especially in the performance arena. Star Mark Wahlberg has said the film probably won’t play the fall festival circuit and may likely “just go out and go big,” so we’ll be waiting a while before legitimate reactions start to trickle in. Nevertheless, I actually think it’s one of the big contenders of the upcoming season.
Speaking of Paramount, as mentioned in the most recent Oscar Talk, there will be a full-blown Best Picture push for “How to Train Your Dragon.” God bless ’em.
Former Lionsgate and Weinstein Company marketing whiz Tom Ortenberg will be consulting on Apparition’s “The Tree of Life,” which is still very much in limbo as an awards prospect. He’ll also be helping out with Peter Weir’s “The Way Back,” which recently screened to the major studios and didn’t get a bite from a single one. That doesn’t mean it’s not a good film, mind you, but the vibe I’m getting is most aren’t sure how to market it. Hollywood is being quite conservative lately.
Weir’s film joins “Biutiful” in that group, actually.
Elsewhere, Sony launched a hot trailer for “The Social Network” recently, showcasing what looks to be a solid leading turn from Jesse Eisenberg. And I’m hearing Andrew Garfield’s work on the film helped him land his “Spider-Man” gig at the same studio, so…watch out.
If it sounds like I’m spinning my wheels it’s because I am. There’s just very little to talk about, even with the most anticipated film of the summer just a few days old. So let’s just get to the predictions update and call it a day, m’kay?
The Contenders section has been tidied up and the predictions sidebar has been updated in full. Cut loose with your thoughts on the Oscar potential of “Inception” in the comments section below. I’d be interested to hear what everyone has to say.
Comments
102 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: ‘Inception’ to the rule?”
Oscar predicting isn’t my strong suit but I can’t see how Inception could possibly be in the Best Picture frame.
Ouch. What happened to all the Blue Valentine predictions?
I would love to see Inception have tons of Oscar noms but I’ve learned to not expect anything. I’m curious why you don’t think Marion Cotillard will make it into the supporting category? I think her performance is probably the best of the film and is also, I think, the flashiest and will attract the most attention for voters.
Ryan: Out for now. No real reason, honestly. It’s still all about Gosling and Williams, if anything, though. And the latter was all I had in there.
Chad, I know you didn’t care for the film, but I don’t understand how you can possibly believe that. Like it or not, the film is in the Best Picture discussion, easily. As we get closer the awards circuit, and as more movies dazzle as well as fall by the way side, we’ll have a better idea as to what shape this’ll be in for Oscar season, but it doesn’t sound like the buzz on this is going to die anytime soon.
Also, Kris, I’m curious (and delighted) to see you’ve still got How to Train Your Dragon in a few cats beyond Animated Feature. I think that would be really neat if indeed we have two animated films having a major presence in the awards season. Who knows, autumn Oscar contenders always fall by the wayside, and perhaps HTTYD can keep up with TS3.
And I like your picks of “Salt” for the two sound categories; a nice callback to the surprise appearances Wanted made two years ago.
I saw a trailer for Tron: Legacy before Inception. Looks absolutely sick.
Kris: What kinds of words are you hearing (if any) that are being used to describe “The Way Back” from those that have seen it? Thanks.
Chad: If “The Blind Side” can get nominated, any film with critical backing and commercial support can. In a field of ten, “Inception” is pretty much a lock, especially in such a devoid year as this, considering it has much more passionate support than anything released this year, from critics, audiences, and industry insiders. “District 9” got in last year because it was so unique and had passionate support. “Inception” will do the same easily.
I think “Inception” is on its way to a Best Picture nomination for sure. It is going to have great legs at the box office and that will go a long way with the Academy wanting to indulge America in what they obviously enjoyed spending their money to go see. As much as I’d love to see several acting nods (Dicaprio, Hardy, Cotillard, maybe Gordon-Levitt), I think that by the time January rolls around, contenders from other films will have taken their places at the top of everyone’s minds… with Cotillard being the one potential nomination that I think has the best shot.
I think Director and Screenplay look like great bets at this point too.
I have a feeling True Grit would get in, even though it might be PG
What about “Another Year” and “The American”?
True Grit might be PG? I hear the script is loaded with on-screen violence. And, you know, it’s a Coen Bros. film.
I think Inception is almost certain to be nominated for all three. Leo is pretty much the only acting nomination I could see happening, though there has been a lot of vocal champions for Cotillard and Hardy. But because of the nature of the ensemble cast, it may be like The Lord of the Rings and cancel out acting nominations simply because there are too many choices. A SAG Ensemble nomination is practically guaranteed though.
@Mr.Gittes I was just going on what Kris said in his podcast, but if thats what you heard maybe it wont be PG. Either way, it should be great, with that cast and those directors
Kevin: that’s why I think Cotillard has the best shot. Her vote won’t get cancelled out by Ellen Page. They supporting guys, on the other hand…
I think DiCaprio will get in for one of this performances. I’m gonna put my money on Shutter Island
King’s Speech & Bonham Carter & Screenplay not there, and Firth on the tail end, is bad. Right now I’m not really able to see a frontrunner for Actor…maybe when their movies are released in like December.
It would be…interesting if Hathaway, Williams,& Gyllenhaal made it in (and on the other side, Nolan).
Conviction out of director T5 is good. Ew Swank as usual.
““Toy Story 3,” “The Kids Are All Right” and “Inception” — probably needed the extra five slots to make it in (assuming they all do get in).”
I couldn’t disagree more. If Juno and Little Miss Sunshine could make it in, I would’ve still held faith in Kids. That said, in a year of five, Inception and Toy Story 3 would’ve definately had an uphill climb.
I think Conviction should be out. I know it could be the Oscar bait that gets in, but from what we saw from Invictus last year, it will probably only get Actress and Sup. Actor.
Because Swank is also playing Nelson Mandela? Good to know.
I don’t see what everyone sees in Conviction either… The writer of PS I Love You and Freedom Writers, two of swanks worst films, plus an inexpirienced director whose only film got mixed reviews. The trailer looks like Hallmark movie. Unless it pulls the “this years Blind Side” card, I don’t see it as an oscar contender. And The Blind Side arguably got nominated for its box office success, which Conviction doesn’t have football as a selling point.It has law. Good luck with that one.
If I had to put predictions to paper right now–and I guess I’ll eventually post some in the coming weeks– I’d only have “Inception” in the technical categories, I must say.
I don’t see the box-office being significant enough (and the critical support isn’t unanimous enough) to make resistant voters feel obliged to vote for it — and that didn’t even work for “The Dark Knight.” Without those factors, I suspect many voters will find it too cold and too complicated.
Also, it’s good to see Garfield in rather than, say, Nathaniel’s prediction of that disgusting troll Timberlake for the same sappy & dull-looking film.
I do much prefer his prediction of Conviction in like no majors & Speech in ~ all of them.
I think Inception has a Best Picture nomination lock for statistical reasons. It’s a Film Editing lock and likely to be a Director lock. Those two categories usually match up pretty well with Best Picture even with five nominees, so I think it’s a damn good bet as a lock if there are ten nominees.
There is no way that Inception will get an Oscar nomination for Best Picture. Maybe, a few “pretty techs” but not for writing. Cool idea but the baity dialogue for exposition was so obvious. “How does it work?” “It works like this and here are the rules!” And along the way, the rules are broken, just like playing Monopoly with my cousins.
@j I used Invictus as an example because both movies are oscar bait, and Invictus only got noms for acting, even though a lot of people thought it would get more then that. I can only see Conviction getting acting noms, but other people think it can get a Best Picture.
I can see Inception possibly getting nominated for Best Picture, but not winning. I know there are some people, like Richard Roeper, who call it a masterpiece and a front runner for Best Picture… but I don’t see that happening.
That would be really sad if Avatar could get nominated even if it were in a year of 5, but Inception couldn’t. I guess the Academy is all about the simple-minded blockbusters (with a few exceptions).
While I love Weir, I have Way Back as the big contender that is DOA (happens to something every year); 127 Hours is interesting but I tend to avoid predicting a film from a director whose last film won BP- correct me if I’m wrong but I believe before Avatar, Broadcast News was the last film to be nominated when the director’s previous feature won; and Inception could make a play for BP but I suspect the extra slots may benefit safer, more middlebrow fare (like Conviction, Fair Game, Everything You’ve Got).
I also think Kids Are All Right would probably be the one film that would get in with 5 slots which has been released so far, I see it kinda as a Sideways or Little Miss Sunshine type contender and wouldn’t be shocked to see it take a major category or the SAG Ensemble
Picture
Another Year
Conviction
The Kids Are All Right
The Fighter
Toy Story 3
The Tree of Life
Fair Game
The Social Network
True Grit
Everything You’ve Got
Directing
Mike Leigh, Another Year
David Fincher, The Social Network
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Original Screenplay
Another Year
The Kids Are All Right
Everything You’ve Got
The Fighter
Blue Valentine
Adapted Screenplay
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
Fair Game
Rabbit Hole
True Grit
Actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Ben Stiller, Greenberg (probably not going to happen, but I felt like having one longshot in there)
Actress
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Julianne Moore, Kids Are All Right
Naomi Watts, Fair Game
Hilary Swank, Conviction
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Supprorting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Sam Rockwell, Conviction
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jack Nicholson, Everything You’ve Got
Supporting Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (could also go lead, but I think they may do this since Moore has more screentime and this may give Bening a better chance to win)
Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life
Elle Fanning, Somewhere
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole
Chris138: Personally, I think “Avatar” was helped enormously by its December release date.
Avatar was also helped by the game-changer sell that the audience and industry bought hook, line and sinker.
At this moment, I see Inception as a widely anticipated summer movie amongst young adults that delivered to their expectations. The reviews and box office are normal and there’s really nothing more to it, other than a perceived snub of the director’s previous work.
Guy, I think the potential counterweight to “unanimous” critical support is fairly enthusiastic response from supporters. Moviecitynews compiled end of year lists, and all but one film in the top 10 most mentioned in critics’ list garnered a BP nod. Most movies that were frequently mentioned on end of year lists made the cut last year–the exception among the top 10 being “Fantastic Mr. Fox.”
A lot of the positive responses to the movie were highly positive, so I could see the critics favorable to the movie, mentioning it on their end of year lists.
I think the most important question to be asked is,
Why isn’t there an Inception ride at Six Flags? WB should have it set in stone that every Nolan film gets its own ride. Especially one that takes place in a labyrinth and has pulsating music from Hans Zimmer.
Oh yeah Oscar talk. I think Inception will get in with ten. The academy board changed to ten mainly because of the Dark Knight snub. So to snub Nolan again would add insult to injury.
On top of that I feel like a lot of films will fail to impress this winter just like last winter (Invictus, Lovely Bones, Nine) and that will open things up for Inception.
I wouldn’t worry about the summer release date either. If the academy likes a movie then they like it. Hurt Locker ran the gauntlet from June 09 to May 10 and survived. Almost an entire year!
“Pulsating music from Hans Zimmer.”
Oh, it’s pulsating alright but that has nothing to do with Zimmer.
Yes! Thrilled to see Melissa Leo in the lineup. Best Supporting Actress seems so vacant, and she’s got a great slate of films. I’ve just seen the trailer for Welcome to the Rileys and in the trailer alone, she looks impressive. Hopefully the critics will take notice as it’ll help her. Is Brighton Rock even going to make it out in time? My gut says no, and I’d substitute Cotillard in instead.
Supporting Actor looks great, and I’m glad to see Garfield there now. His role is a juicy one and I expect it to play to the voters. I had the same 4 (minus Rush in favor of Garfield) you had, but Farrell definitely seemed like the weakest link. I’m considering Chris Cooper for The Company Men (as blah as the reviews say it is, his role seems aces in this time period) as the previous winner nominee.
Disappointed to see Gosling still not here and Gyllenhaal still in there. But then again, each of us are bound to be wrong about something, and since most of the rest of the main 8 predix look pretty good to me, I’d wager Gyllenhaal as the weak link in yours while I suppose Sturgess is the weak link in mine. (If 127 Hours is indeed released, James Franco replaces Sturgess.)
Loving the Best Actress inclusion of Lawrence, and there’s always “that one performance” (Swank), so I think Williams might replace Hathaway, if Love and Other Drugs turns out to be the hot mess I predict.
I think it’s also worth noting that while “Inception” doesn’t enjoy the box office and its critical support is softer than TDK, it also doesn’t have the “superhero” label. Though it’s obviously not Oscar-style in genre and style.
@Ben M.: Your Best Actor predictions are so odd. Ben Stiller?! Ryan Gosling or James Franco or even Joseph Gordon-Levitt seem like wiser longshots to me, haha.
Also not feeling Bardem, because that film seems to be way too love it or hate it to find Academy favor, nor Everything You’ve Got, which I think fits the bill as “annual Christmas prestigious rom-com w/ Golden Globes hope at best”.
The BFCA will suck up to Inception big time, picture, director, screenplay, even performances all set. DGA might also bite, WGA too taking rules into account and PGA is a given. Baftas & Globes will mostly refrain, and while Best Pic nom at the Oscars is more than likely, director and screenplay we will have to see. Cinematography and other techs are locks while the actors won’t go near this film. Jeez people are discussing acting noms for this film?
I also hope Score nom will not materialize. It will likely win Editing.
Dragon guys are kidding themselves. Anything besides a score and animated nom is a fanatsy. The Kids Are All Right seems like a screenplay winner and would have got into Picture even with 5 I believe.
Of the supposed big contenders, Conviction, Fighter & King’s Speech don’t interest me in the slightest.
Best Picture
THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT
INCEPTION
127 HOURS
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
*THE WAY BACK
and the other five
BLACK SWAN
THE FIGHTER
THE KING´S SPEECH
RABBIT HOLE
TOY STORY 3
Best Director
DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS
LISA CHOLODENKO/THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT
DAVID FINCHER/THE SOCIAL NETWORK
CHRISTOPHER NOLAN/INCEPTION
*PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK
Best Actor
JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL
ROBERT DUVALL/GET LOW
*COLIN FIRTH/THE KING´S SPEECH
JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS
RYAN GOSLING/BLUE VALENTINE
Best Actress
*ANNETTE BENING/THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT
ANNE HATHAWAY/LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS
NICOLE KIDMAN/RABBIT HOLE
JENNIFER LAWRENCE/WINTER´S BONE
MICHELLE WILLIAMS/BLUE VALENTINE
Supporting Actor
*CHRISTIAN BALE/THE FIGHTER
ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK
BILL MURRAY/GET LOW
SAM ROCKWELL/CONVICTION
MARK RUFFALO/THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT
Supporting Actress
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY/NEVER LET ME GO
MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN
MELISSA LEO/THE FIGHTER
LESLIE MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR
DIANE WIEST/RABBIT HOLE
Original Screenplay
ANOTHER YEAR
INCEPTION
THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT
THE KING´S SPEECH
127 HOURS
Adapted Screenplay
LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS
RABBIT HOLE
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TOY STORY 3
THE WAY BACK
Cinematography
BLACK SWAN
INCEPTION
127 HOURS
THE TREE OF LIFE
THE WAY BACK
FILM EDITING
The Fighter
Inception
127 Hours
True Grit
The Way Back
Best Picture
127 Hours (glad to see its coming this year)
Black Swan
Conviction
The Fighter
Inception
The Social Network
Tree of Life
True Grit
Toy Story 3
The Way Back (assuming release)
I think Adams gets in over Leo in the Fighter. Supportive wife, plus she is playing against her usual sweet, cute type.
I was upset about Michelle Williams leaving but then it’s only july, plus I’m still not sold that Harvey won’t fuck things up for the movie. The release date is terrible.
The release date is atrocious. I hope they wise up and bump it up, or that the critics awards take to Gosling and Williams and help their cause. Let’s write angry letters disguised as concerned film fans!
Also, yes, supportive wife, but don’t disregard possibly feisty Irish mama!
I’m not at all sure what to expect, but the expansion to 10 Best Picture nominees was made to make the awards more accessable to audiences. Last year, Avatar, Up, District 9, and The Blind Side were nominated, mostly because of that. This year, I can see Inception, Toy Story 3, and dare I say it, Harry Potter 7: Part 1 making it in.
I didn’t even notice, no mention of Black Swan?
Kris, is “The Social Network” as weighty as the trailer makes it out to be?
I would imagine a lot of Academy members won’t like Inception.
Duncan: I have a feeling they will wait till next year to nominate Harry Potter. It feels like a LOTR situation where they are waiting to reward the entire saga by recognizing the conclusion. Though the splitting of Book 7 into two films makes the situation tricky as hell.
Dan: That’s what a lot of people were saying about District 9 last year, and look how that turned out. It was deemed too sci-fi, too violent, too out there. Yet it wound up with nominations for Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay (a tougher field than original screenplay) Editing, and VFX. Passionate support pushed it through. I truly think The Dark Knight would have gotten in had it not been unfortunately stuck with it’s genre label. Last year proved the Academy is not opposed to thinking outside the box, and the perceived sci-fi bias seems to be gone. I hate to belabor a point, but again, the film has a TON of passionate support from people in the industry, and Nolan is someone a lot of people in the industry admire. It will get in. It won’t win, they’ll pick something more typical. But a nomination is definitely happening.
With all due respect to the Harry Potter series (and speaking as a non-fan of the Lord of the Rings trilogy), I highly doubt most Academy members regard them as comparable achievements — not least since the Potter films have no consistent directorial identity. It’ll never happen.
The Harry Potter films are definitely respected as technical achievements, it really all depends on how the last two films play out. Books 5, 6, and 7 were all handled by the same director, and the films in general have had a pretty consistent visual identity since Prisoner of Azkaban. But I will say the lack of consistent directorial identity may hurt. Who knows, it may just depend purely on the quality of the finale.
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