Despite a precious few naysayers, Pixar’s “Toy Story 3,” which hit theaters this weekend to an all-time high opening number for the studio, has become an odds-on awards season favorite. Nominations for Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, Best Animated Feature seem like no-brainers.
Additionally, though some might make arguments for this indie title or that, I think the threequel is one of only two films to have already hit multiplexes in 2010 that have a water-holding argument for placement in “the 10.” The other, ironically enough, is fellow animated endeavor “How to Train Your Dragon.” But as we reach the half-way point of the year, “Toy Story 3” has become the first release that could conceivably take the whole enchilada.
It’s surprising to note that this, one of the most creatively and financially successful franchises in film history, has not one competitive Oscar to its credit. John Lasseter received Special Achievement honors for the first installment 15 years ago, but that was it. Something else was worth noting in 1995, however. The first film was also the one to break a certain barrier of legitimacy for animated features in the Oscar race.
While “Beauty and the Beast” may have amassed six nominations, including one for Best Picture (largely a reaction to pop cultural phenomenon), five of them were directly related to the film’s soundtrack. Four years later, it was “Toy Story” that became the first toon feature to receive a nomination for its screenplay. Many of the seven names recognized echoed throughout the industry years after: Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Joe Ranft and, of course, Mr. Lasseter.
Today, 15 years later, even with bigger awards successes like “Ratatouille,” “WALL-E” and Best Picture nominee “Up” to their credit, the Pixar peeps remain most appreciative of nominations for writing. Because more than anything, those honors place their work on a level playing field with the rest of the visual storytelling industry. And as they celebrate perhaps their biggest coup yet — closing out a trilogy with style, grace and honor — you can bet the wheels are turning, figuring a way to spin this whole thing into the kind of narrative territory Mark Harris identified as most fetching in last year’s season: Perhaps it’s Pixar’s “turn.”
Predictable sniffling might be prevalent in Academy screenings and the money might continue to roll in throughout the summer, but that’s all accoutrement to the one thing that will be difficult to argue against come awards season: the track record of a studio still standing tall 11 films in. And what better way to celebrate that track record than to give cinema’s highest honor to what looks to be the closing installment of the series that started it all?
But there will inevitably be other “it’s their turn” narratives for the season. One of them might be right around the corner as Christopher Nolan’s “Inception” hits theaters in three weeks’ time. What will the pressure be like in the wake of top category snubs for “The Dark Knight” in 2008? I hear the film has a demanding plot that’ll lose you early if you’re not paying attention, so hopefully the Academy puts on its collective thinking hat.
If a campaign sure to be loaded with alpha types behind the scenes can settle on a clear vision, David Fincher’s “The Social Network” could remind once again of the filmmaker’s versatility, and the collapse of “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” during the awards circuit two years ago.
A still Oscarless Peter Weir comes back to the table at year’s end with “The Way Back,” the source material of which was featured in our weekly Page to Screen series recently. How to argue with a portfolio like his, and the numerous careers he’s touched along the way?
But nothing feels as immediate as the Pixar situation. Maybe — just maybe — the Academy can shake its toon bias long enough to recognize a true industry feat. It’s early, early, EARLY days yet, but so far, it’s the only 2010 awards “story” that feels the most complete.
The Contenders section has been groomed and adjusted. The predictions sidebar has also been updated. We’ll let things settle another couple of weeks and reassess on July 19 or 25, depending on what’s in the ether.
Comments
52 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: One for the toys”
Toy Story 3 for adapted screenplay?
“Based on characters created by…”
Oh wow, I hadn’t heard that. Well at least they won’t be up against Inception. :)
Kris, even considering I’m way out of its wheelhouse, that Conviction trailer was atrocious. People usually in sync with Oscar tastes have even told me so. I thought for sure it would be completely wiped off the sidebar.
I too find the it unlikely that the Academy is going to fall for Conviction. Sure, it’s typical awards fare, but if the movie is half as bad as the trailer suggests, it’ll still be terrible beyond belief.
I’m guessing Conviction will turn into a kind of Invictus. Oscar bait that won’t get anything except acting noms for (maybe) Swank and probably Rockwell.
I figure John Lasseter wins the Thalberg award this year or pretty soon thereafter.
Chad: It was just a trailer, for starters, but I know people who’ve seen it. They seem to think it’s a contender.
I’m still shocked, though, that the year after The Blind Side, people expect something that looks like schlock to miss with AMPAS.
Agreed, Kris. I was having the same thoughts about Pixar’s award campaign revolving around their success and legacy. It would be exceptionally smart to approach it from that angel.
Speaking of which Kris, have you seen the trailer for “Secretariat”?…talk about trying to win the Blind Side vote…horrible.
I wouldn’t mind Pixar getting it for their turn. I would certainly appreciate it more than The Return of the King getting its turn.
Also: Rae Kasey!
Kris, Beauty and the Beast’s best pic nomination was “largely a reaction to pop cultural phenomenon” but Toy Story 3’s would be “recognizing a true industry feat”?
I think you’re undrerrating the Disney classic (and my favorite movie ever :p)
Conviction isn’t going to make $250 million to force their hand.
I enjoyed the film, but Inception, Social Network, and Tree of Life would have to be real stinkers in order for me to route for this Pixar outing. It was good and all, but nothing like their last 2 pictures.
Chad: I was talking to voters who fell in love with The Blind Side long before it’s box office haul. I don’t think that forced anyone’s hand, but combined with The Proposal success, I’m sure it helped Sandie all the way to the stage.
Jim: I don’t mean to, just making it clear that, IMO, it was Toy Story that broke a lot of barriers down for animated features in the awards race.
Kris,
I assume you heard that description of Inception’s “demanding plot” from someone who has seen it? Thanks.
Yes.
Thanks. Speaking of which, I heard press screenings start on Thursday. When do you get to see it?
I think TS3 is a lock for the Adapted Screenplay nom, the script is receiving earth-shattering praise(much like the movie itself) and its by a former winner. Picture nom too is a given. But I still think winning is out of question, they’d much rather give it to a second-tier live action film than a cartoon.
And I’m with Chad, Conviction looks like the worst piece of shit. Nobody who saw that trailer is buying a ticket to that movie.
@James D: Yes, hello again!
I know people who have seen “The fighter” and they all say Wahlberg is fine, but nothing special and that Bale and Adams are the best bets for nominations.
No Sally Hawkins? Nice adding Kiera though…
red_wine: Spend some time in middle America.
Amanda: I too know people who’ve seen The Fighter, but “nothing special” isn’t how I’ve heard Wahlberg described. Trouble is, the studio may not see it as a pay-off movie and it could get lost as a result. I hear the movie is sensational.
Does it have to take home best picture? It’s already a lock in the animation category.
Yeah, I thought no one would see the Blind Side, but my entire extended family is in love with it. The proles love that sort of trailer.
I don’t want to be controversial, and I know we’re still a long long way to go in the season, but your current acting predictions made me stop for a few seconds.
All performers are from US, UK or Australia, they’re all performing in English language picture and they’re all from white northern european heritage. This hasn’t happened since 1997.
Do you think this is indicative of the safeness of the likely Oscar fodder this year, or do you doubt the likelihood of individual campaigns – say for Djimon Housou in The Tmpest, Viola Davis in It’s a Kind of Funny Story, or the cast of Miral – gtting any real awards traction?
The photo in this article reminds me of Jim Carrey’s brilliant presentation of Lasseter’s award that year.
you took out TS3 out of the Original score category. Do you think it’s not strong enough, or that it will be disqualified for featuring snippets from the other two scores?
Chad: Remind me.
Mr. F: Lots of songs (which can be a drawback sometimes) and “Dragon” has a hell of a score, so I just swapped them out for now.
He pretended to have not seen Toy Story and thought the pictured dolls were new Midnight Cowboy toys.
Hmm, I don’t remember the songs other than “You’ve got a friend in me” in the beginning and the “le freak” montage
I don’t remember that at all. I don’t think I paid much attention to the Oscars that year.
F: There’s an original, “We Belong Together.” But one of the things I DON’T remember is the score, so I guess I’m just looking elsewhere at this point.
I think it’s a perfect storm for a Toy Story 3 win. Beloved franchise, near-perfect ratings, boffo box office, a well-respected studio long overdue for major Oscar recognition outside of the tech categories and the Animated Feature ghetto. 2010 has not been a good year so far for Oscar-calibre movies, and while fall’s slate looks more promising than the first have of ’10, there are ALWAYS flops. It also seems like we have a smaller than usual set of prestige films coming up in the second half, so who knows, less likely that a Slumdog or Hurt Locker juggernaut emerges.
Two animated films in the adapted screenplay category, a slate usually reserved for prestige Best Pic contenders, would be astounding, and a great way to show that last year’s animation renaisasance wasn’t just a fluke.
Who knows. It’s a new decade. I really think it can happen, but I won’t deny that it possibly won’t.
Also forgot to add that the groundswell of support for the film would indeed have to be enormous, especially to overcome the fact that only one film since the Academy’s first years has won BP without a Directing nod.
Then again…is even a directing nod that far out of the question now?
Has anyone here heard rumblings about London Boulevard? Jeff Wells thinks it’s going to be in the Oscar mix. I’ve ready only the script and book.
I think we’re all forgetting one thing: Alexander Payne’s The Descendants. But that could be a 2011 thing.
@Kris: Toy Story 3 doesn’t have a “Based on characters created by…” credit, though. The writing credits says “written by: Michael Arndt, story by: John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich.” That should make it original.
Kris you should include Toy Story in the best original score category, it IS getting nominated, it’s the best randy newman score since forever (Monsters inc.) and personally, I found it pretty memorable, it has really beautiful moments and contribuited greatly at the heart wrenching the film experience is, a very emotional scorem I think it’s a lock.
Estefan: Neither did Borat or Before Sunset. It’s not about what’s credited on the film. If that were the case, Syriana would have gone adapted. It won’t be deemed original.
As someone noted at AwardsDaily, TS3 now sits at #11 on IMDB’s Top 250.
Are any of you guys get an invite to the LA screening of Inception this Thursday?
@Kris what would be the odds of 2 animated features for Best picture
It’s a beautiful dream, Pixar winning Best Picture, but I have doubts. Best Adapted Screenplay, on the other hand, if the field is weak, may be where they finally shake off the animation bias.
I hate sounding like a jerk, but… did anyone else NOT particularly like Toy Story 3? An enjoyable film, yes… but way too emotionally empty for a Best Picture nom. And I think a win is out of the question.
I dunno… maybe I’m just bitter that “Wall-E” missed out on the nom (and win) it deserved, and the subsequent two lesser Pixar films will get in.
Would the fact that Disney has never won a Best Picture Award work for or against Toy Story 3? Is the Disney studio respected right now in the industry enough to give them (and by proxy Pixar) the award?
I hate to think of the Oscars as making amends for past decisions, and the awards do tend to run in that direction at times, but Disney’s been waiting since the understandable yet stupid shut out of Snow White in 1937.
***…but way too emotionally empty for a Best Picture nom. ***
A film has to be ’emotional’ to be nominated for Best Picture (not saying “Toy Story 3” isn’t, mind you, I have not seen it yet)? I guess we should revoke that prize from “No Country for Old Men”…
Well sure right now TS3 looks like the best movie of the year because there’s like no competition until Oscar season really kicks in.
At the top of my Don’t Get Nominated Please list is Conviction. Ew.
Kris, what are the odds of Unkrich getting a director nom? Also, do you think it could get a sound nom, like countless other Pixar films?
j: Better than A Prophet, really?
I’ve heard that ‘Inception’ may not be the powerhouse we’re all assuming it will be… i.e. – it’s confusing and uncomfortably cerebral, and could be more divisive a la ‘The Prestige.’ With expectations so astronomically high, I don’t see how it could deliver (especially now that there are rumblings that it’s not a masterwork)– and that will certainly hurt, if not eliminate, its chances in the major Oscar categories.
I highly, highly doubt ‘Toy Story 3’ will take best pic either. It’s pretty much the epitome of what an Oscar contender is NOT: animated, threequel, comedy, family-friendly, box office titan, breezy, accessible, etc. Sure, if anyone can defy Oscar logic, it’s Pixar–but they only cracked best pic last year, and that was solely because of the expanded lineup. If Pixar is going to take the top prize, they need to outdo themselves (if that’s possible) with a more “important,” prestige-like product. Right now, I’d double down on “Brave” (formerly “The Bear and the Bow”) for their best shot at a best pic statue: based on Scottish folklore, written and directed by a woman, deeper moral overtones, etc.
I get a feeling that Inception is currently going through that doubting phase that Avatar went through before it came out. People were thinking that it would be a flop, or wouldn’t make as much as Titanic, and didn’t know a whole lot about the plot or anything (even though when you finally saw it you realized how simple it was).
I can even see Inception opening to the same kind of numbers that Avatar did in it’s opening weekend. I’m not sure if it will be an instant smash hit like The Dark Knight, but over time if it gets good word of mouth from audiences and the critics like it, then I think it’s box office intake will get stronger as the weeks go on.
Then again, I could be wrong about all of this. I’m just assuming, so we’ll just have to wait and see. I hope the movie delivers.