This weekend the first two major televised awards shows will hit and the race will begin to take a certain shape. Though to be quite honest, I’m beginning to get the sense that each of these major precursors will go different ways. At the end of the day, I think we could be looking at a three-horse race all the way up until the Best Film Editing award on Oscar night (which will either go to “Avatar” or “The Hurt Locker”). Then it’ll be a two-horse race between that film and “Up in the Air” right up until the final envelope is opened.
This is what we wanted, though. Right?
Pete Hammond does a nice job of previewing the BFCA’s Critics’ Choice Movie Awards at The Envelope. Pete and I did a little dog and pony Q&A intro to a free showing of “Up in the Air” at the Landmark theater in West L.A. last night to a packed house. Some 60 attendees were turned away at the door. Mainly it was raising awareness, discussing the nominees, offering up who we voted for, etc.
Being a member of the organization the last three years, I’ve refrained from actually predicting the proceedings as of late. I do think it’s the same three-horse race, however, and I think the only really telling thing would be if “Avatar” managed to win. Tune in Friday night at 9:00 EST, 6:00 PST on VH1.
The Golden Globes, on the other hand, I’m happy to take a stab at. Entertainment Weekly has a gallery of The show will be live on both coasts (for the first time) Sunday at 8:00 EST, 5:00 PST on NBC. Moves are being made behind the scenes by vested interests looking to woo this easily swayed organization. Hopefully no Blu-ray players were involved this time.
My guesses:
Best Picture (Drama)
“Avatar”
Best Picture (Comedy or Musical)
“The Hangover”
Best Actor (Drama)
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Best Actress (Drama)
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Best Actor (Comedy or Musical)
Matt Damon, “The Informant!”
Best Actress (Comedy or Musical)
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Director
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Best Supporting Actress
Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Screenplay
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Animated Film
“Up”
Best Original Score
Michael Giacchino, “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film
“Un Prophete”
Best Original Song
“(I Want To) Come Home” from “Everybody’s Fine”
Feel free to cut loose with your Golden Globes and/or BFCA predictions in the comments section below.
Comments
56 responses to “BFCA/HFPA on the way”
4 horses kris, still 4 horses
Gonna be tough to win without an editing nomination…
I think come Feb 2 Basterds will get an editing nod
and therefore 4 horses
@Kris: We’ll leave that for when they actually announce the Editing noms–you’re still predicting Ms. Menke to make the cut after all (pre-ACE, sure, but hey). Are you predicting ACE Drama will match Oscar 5/5? Hell, even Children of Men got an editing nod without the ACE–Basterds is in a much better position now than Children of Men was.
Maybe not the best example, but hey.
I think there’s some wishful thinking going on, but that’s fine. I think missing with ACE is a big deal. And I think the length and bloated nature of Basterds hurts it in the editing field more than any other category. We’ll have to wait and see.
Getting it back on track, though, anyone have predictions to offer up?
However, Kris, [B][/B] choices in your rundown (God, I hope someone gets that). Frankly, I’m not convinced Avatar takes it here. In fact, the only award I think it could DEFINITELY win here is one you’re not predicting it for–Score. Seems like their bread-and-butter. Also, if they gave “The Wrestler” their song award, then “The Weary Kind” is right up their alley. Lastly, I think that Comedy/Musical goes for either (500) Days of Summer (the critical darling for reasons I don’t understand) or It’s Complicated (the only nominated screenplay from the Comedy/Musical shortlist).
I think Up in the Air will win big at the globes (Picture, Actor, Screenplay) but Avatar or Hurt Locker will win BFCA. Then Basterds will win SAG, Avatar will win PGA and Hurt Locker will win DGA. And we’ll know NOTHING.
Ryan Bingham isn’t Bruce Springsteen, Adam.
I’m not sure that Giacchino is going to win the globe.Don’t get me wrong, i love him since the early MEDAL OF HONOR days and i think his contributions this year were FANTASTIC, but somehow i think Horner is going to win for AVATAR, and im fine with that too,because i love Jimmy’s work on the film
Um, Adam K., stop reading my mind.
I’m definitely saying The Hurt Locker for BFCA, Up in the Air for Globes, Avatar for PGA, Basterds for SAG.
I also think that Basterds could MAYBE surprise at the Globes–I’m still betting on Up in the Air, but Basterds is my alternate.
I’m predicting Up in the Air/500 Days tomorrow. Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised if Levitt won either.
If Bullock wins tomorrow, the rest of that race just comes down to who gives the best speech.
I am still wondering if HFPA is going to be able to resist “Nine.” It’s not like they’ve been averse to critically-crucified movies in the past. Plus, being the starfuckers they are, won’t they want that cast up on stage?
But, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Matt Damon win for Best Actor, since he’s probably famous enough for them. And that would please me very much.
Drama: Up in the Air (or Avatar maybe)
Comedy/Musical: Nine (it’s not dead to the HFPA, it’s actually right up their alley)
Actor – Drama: George Clooney
Actress – Drama: Sandra Bullock
Actor – Comedy: Joseph Gordon-Levitt
Actress – Comedy: Meryl Streep, J&J
Supporting: Mo’Nique & Christoph Waltz
Screenplay: Up in the Air
Director: Kathryn Bigelow (or Cameron maybe)
Score: Avatar
Song: The Weary Kind
Foreign: A Prophet
Animated: Up
@Kris: Duly noted. But if “The Wrestler” is the kind of song that they respond to (this is, of course, assuming that they voted for the song and not for Springsteen–and considering Rourke’s win over Penn in Actor – Drama, I think it’s possible that they did just respond very well to the film), then I wouldn’t be surprised if the same people voted for “The Weary Kind”. In fact, if “The Weary Kind” takes it, I’d watch out for Jeff Bridges to take Actor (Drama), though I’m not holding my breath with this group–frankly, I’m just shocked Clooney didn’t score a double nod this year with The Men Who Stare At Goats.
While I’m also predicting Matt Damon for Actor (Comedy/Musical), I think that this is the category to watch for a surprise, because (no joke) anyone could win here. If (500) Days wins Picture, could it push Gordon-Levitt to a win (I wouldn’t fault them–he’s easily the best thing in the film and just about the only thing that makes any of it work)? Matt Damon did a major transformation. Daniel Day-Lewis is…well, Daniel Day-Lewis, arguably the world’s greatest working actor, and they might still want to give Nine something (though my guess, if Nine wins anything, it’ll be for “Cinema Italiano” or MAYBE giving Cruz a make-up win for losing to Winslet last year). Robert Downey, Jr. is the biggest star of the pack, and some people might think that he would have won Supporting Actor if it wasn’t for a certain “unstoppable force.” And Michael Stuhlbarg’s performance was good enough that they couldn’t ignore it, even if their Picture ballot skewed a little more mainstream this year.
EDIT: (concerning RDJ) “…some people might think he would have won Supporting actor last year”
Up In The Air will probably win. That way they don’t get too much flak for giving Avatar Best Picture and they can escape giving it to that angry depressing low budget ugly-looking war movie that only critics seem to wanna tolerate.
If Nine wins, HFPA will be torn to tatters and the little credibility they have will disappear. Jeez by now even the Nine guys know their film isn’t worth shit. They will feel so hollow and empty getting there up on the stage and trying to look happy. Everybody there in the room clapping would know ‘what a thoroughly disposable award’. Wow, this almost makes me wish that it happens. Nothing like a hypocritical farce on prime time television as far as I’m concerned.
If The Hurt Locker wins SAG, the race would be nigh over. It’ll then sail to a Best Picture win.
Tough year to predict the Globes.
Gonna go out on a limb and predict a Up in the Air and Nine shut out.
Hope Glee wins, too.
Clooney doesn’t deserve it. Hope Bridges win. Will get the Academy in the mood to give him the Oscar.
I really do not understand the hate for The Hurt Locker, Red_wine. And I respect your opinion, but to say that THL is an ugly-looking low budget film doesn’t mean anything, judging by the industry’s response.
Hmmm….
Drama: Hurt Locker (I just can’t shake the hunch)
Comedy: No idea, but I’ll shoot from the hip and say Nine. It IS right up their alley-star studded and showy
Actor: Bridges (PLEASE let him win)
Actress: Streep (Rolled my eyes at first when I found out she was playing Child, but here we are once again…)
S. Actor: Mr. Waltz (totally deserves it)
S. Actress: Ms. Mo’Nique (totally deserves it; don’t care if she’s a sassy-pants diva or not)
Director: Bigelow
Screenplay: Toss up b/t UITA and Basterds
Don’t really care about the rest, to be honest.
As for the Editing issue, Kris. I don’t know. Don’t you think District 9 or Star Trek might become pretty vulnerable once the Academy has its say? I’d say easily that they’ll drop one or both of those, and Menke will get in. But we’ll see.
I do believe that the Globes, SAGs, and BFCA will spew out a crazy hodgepodge, and we’ll STILL have no clue what will win.
EXCITING!
BFCA – Hurt Locker
GG – Up in the Air
SAG – Inglourious
PGA – Avatar
DGA – Hurt Locker
OSCARS – oy, going Inglourious because of actors branch and widespread technical support, sans ACE nom.
OSCARS really are up in the air. ;-)
What’s with all the hatred toward Nine?
I just saw it last night, and it’s not a bad film. It’s actually just the kind of thing the HFPA loves (musical, international, glamour, big stars, highbrow). Not everything about it works, but it’s still better than a lot of films that have won the globe in the past (Dreamgirls definitely, and it’d say it’s about as good as Vicky Cristina or Sweeney Todd). It’s frustrating that the critics have savaged it this way.
I still think it’ll win on sunday (only in the top category), and the cast and crew won’t have to squirm, they’ll be happy that they get this fitting last hurrah.
Oh. Make that Comedy/Musical actress to Streep; Drama Actor to Bridges. No clue on Drama Actress or Comedy Actor.
Damn HFPA and your crazy categories….
Drama: Up in the Air, although Inglourious Basterds has a real shot with the HFPA, not so much with Oscar
Comedy: (500) Days of Summer
Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Drama Actor: George Clooney, Up in the Air
Comedy Actor: Matt Damon, The Informant!
Drama Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Comedy Actress: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, Precious
Screenplay: Reitman and Turner, Up in the Air
I think going unashamedly populist with Avatar and The Hangover would make the HFPA look a lot worse than if they stuck with their usual inclinations and went with Nine.
Why do you think the HFPA love musicals?
Apart from Sweeney Todd over Juno, where’s the evidence?
When did George Clooney sneak in and make the Best Actor race not about Bridges and Firth anymore?
Predicting The Hangover to win the Globe for Picture – Musical/Comedy? Crazy.
Predicting Maggie Gyllenhaal for a Best Supporting Actress Oscar nomination without a single precursor and a campaign in Lead Actress? Batshit crazy.
Globes Predix:
Drama: Avatar
Director: James Cameron: Avatar
Comedy/Musical: It’s Complicated
Actor (Drama) George Clooney: UitA
Actor (Comedy) Matt Damon : The Informant
Actress (Drama) Sandra Bullock: The Blind Side
Actress (Comedy) Meryl Streep: Complicated
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz: Basterds
Supporting Actress: Anna Kendrick: UitA
Animated: Up
Screenplay: Up in the Air
I know I am in the vast minority here but I have a sneaking suspicion the Bigelow and Mo’nique trains come to an end here.
@Al: Well, they also gave Best Picture to the reviled Evita, as well as another failed Best Picture bid — Dreamgirls.
@Pam: Firth has been the “dark horse”/”just a pleasure to be nominated” nominee since the critics award. It’s all Clooney v. Bridges.
For the Globes I’d say:
Picture (Drama): “Up in the Air”
Picture (Comedy): “Nine”
Director: James Cameron, “Avatar”
Actor (Drama): George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Actress (Drama): Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Actor (Comedy): Matt Damon, “The Informant!”
Actress (Comedy: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
Score: Michael Giacchino, “Up”
Song: The Weary Kind, “Crazy Heart”
Animated: “Up”
Foreign Language: “The White Ribbon”
So hard to predict this year, which is awesome.
i think up in the air should be in comedy and win, and hurt lucker should win drama, but…up in the air for the win
Thanks, Adam. But hardly compelling. Dreamgirls was at least rated highly. Evita got 5 Oscar noms, and won one. Hardly reviled.
Adam K. …. gotta agree with you.
I liked NINE. I went in expecting the worst due to mixed reviews and when it was over I said to myself ‘well gee, I liked that a lot more than i expected to’. It isn’t perfect. Some things bugged me (specifically, the editing). And some of the characters are really shortchanged. But I thought that all of the performances were great. The movie looked great. And many parts entertained me.
Picture (Drama): “AVATAR”
Picture (Comedy): “Nine”
Director: James Cameron, “Avatar”
Actor (Drama): George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Actress (Drama): Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Actor (Comedy): Matt Damon, “The Informant!”
Actress (Comedy: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Supporting Actress: Anna Kendrick “Up In The Air”
Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
Score: James Horner “Avatar”
Song: The Weary Kind, “Crazy Heart”
Animated: “Up”
Foreign Language: “The White Ribbon”
Replace NINE with JULIE & JULIA
Bummed that my VH1 over here in Europe isn’t airing the BFCAs, and no other channel is either.. Hardly surprising, but still.
At least the Globes will be.. exciting!
@Al: Evita’s Metacritic score is 45. At the very least, it is considered EXTREMELY mediocre.
@Al: Plus, Dreamgirls winning over Little Miss Sunshine is essentially the same thing as Sweeney Todd winning over Juno. So who says Nine can’t win over (500) Days of Summer? Completes the “Musical that failed to make a Best Picture bid beats a quirky Fox Searchlight comedy” trifecta.
Wait…Little Miss Sunshine and Juno both got Best Picture nominations after that happened. So if Nine wins, does that mean (500) Days of Summer is nominated for Best Picture?
Please, God, if you can hear me, don’t let Nine win.
@Adam Smith We can only hope the HFPA have realised the error of their ways. An open category no doubt. Hope Summer prevails. A good 7-1 bet in my book.
@Al: It’s sad. The only movie here I can root for is The Hangover. I haven’t seen It’s Complicated, but I’m guessing I’d still root for The Hangover. Pity.
Another Al on this site? 0_0
Kris, here’s something I’ve noticed for Best Picture-Drama in the last decade. They usually give it to the film in that category with the most nominations, even if they only give it one or two awards (Atonement, Babel, The Hours, etc.) and the only two times in the last decade that it didn’t go to the film with the most nominations, they were films that were dominating the awards season and won all four awards they were nominated for. That’s LOTR: The Return of the King and Slumdog Millionaire.
So, by that logic, unless Avatar wins all four awards it’s nominated for (which I don’t think is likely) Picture-Drama is Up in the Air’s to lose. They may break this trend this year, but because I don’t see a surefire contender this year, I think the Globes will go for Up in the Air. Otherwise, I really hope The Hangover doesn’t win (thenagain, I’m not really a fan of the Comedy/Musica lineup this year, and it was a brilliant one last year save for Mamma Mia). The Picture-Drama lineup, however, I think is amazing, and I’ll be glad with any film winning.
Adam: Care for me to count to you the number of people who’ve received acting nominations without precursors? Point is this: Globes categorized her lead. She was still in a lead campaign when Searchlight classified her for SAG (which unlike Oscar, SAG voters have to vote where the actor or actress is classified by the studio). And it would hardly be unheard of.
You also seem to have missed this month-old news.
Anyway, she’s hardly a slam dunk, but people like the film, she hit the publicity rounds when it counted and you just never know.
Isaac: I gave up on awards trends as any tangible barometer years ago.
A much more exciting year for BP contenders. I think its Up in the Air, although I still think Oscar will go for Avatar
I don’t know what will win the Oscar; I just feel it won’t “be” The Hurt Locker, and I hope it’s not Up in the Air (I liked it, but don’t feel it deserves to win over some of the other big guns).
My preference: Inglourious, then Avatar, then Hurt Locker, then Up in the Air. Loved or liked ’em all.
JJ was making other predicts against “THE HURT LOCKER” before, wasn’t he? Before it swept like all the critics awards so far. Guess that didn’t work out so well. Maybe he should turn in his crystal ball for a new one. That thing be broke as all hell.