124 responses to “What is going to win Best Picture and why?”
SHAAAARK
The Hurt Locker, contingent on getting a good campaign from Summit. If not, Up in the Air, which seems zeitgeisty, and will sit back and let Precious get backlashed.
A.J
I really want to say Precious because it’s the feel good yet depressing film. I also really want to say Invictus because they need to make up for snubbing Hotel Rwanda. However I’m going to say Avatar. Why? The new voting system.
aspect ratio
Going by the de-facto “rule” that a Best Picture winner takes home at least four Oscars in total (Crash being the sole exception in the past 20 years with three wins), that certainly narrows things down a bit, although without any precursors it’s tough to say at the moment in certain key categories, like directing and writing.
Certainly one thing in favor of The Hurt Locker is that it’s easy to see it being nominated for Editing and Sound categories, it could reach the Magic Four mark with Picture, Director, Film Editing and Sound Mixing, for example without having to dominate the top categories.
Precious by comparison would have to win something like Picture, Director, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay to reach the Magic Four, a far more tall order (though hardly unimaginable).
Up in the Air feels like it could struggle to win four; Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay could surely happen if it’s heading to a Best Picture win, but can Clooney overtake Bridges and Firth, or Farmiga/Kendrick overtake Monique (and each other)? Film Editing? Tough to say..
But of course, there’s no real rule to say a film this year will need to take home four Oscars total to be the Best Picture. I can certainly imagine Precious being a film that could win the top prize without enormous support elsewhere, a la Crash.
So I’m guessing that’s my pick for now, Precious for Best Picture in a BP/BD split with Kathryn Bigelow taking home Best Director.
Precious. Up In The Air is going to hit the same wall that Duplicity did in the spring.
JFK
From what I have been reading, I think it will be between Up in the Air and Precious. I think The Hurt Locker and An Education deserve noms and Avatar may round out five.
It would be excellent to include A Single Man, but I don’t see that happening just yet.
If A Serious Man is nominated I will not be happy.
Up in the Air largely because, as a previous poster said, the other selections don’t seem very likely.
I sincerely doubt that Precious will win. It could, but there’s already a sense of discontent amongst several groups who find the film overpraised. Invictus could be a possibility, but I don’t think they’ll be itching to award an Eastwood film when it’s already been expressed how much they value his work this decade. Nine will certainly remind people too much of Chicago, and I don’t think they’ll want to award a film when it’s basically a repeat of a previous triumph (although I expect it to be superb and dazzling nonetheless).
An unexpected knockout could be The Lovely Bones, which is interesting since it was considered a frontrunner early this year. But people seem skeptical of its success now. I, however, have not seen anything that should suggest that it can’t turn out a wonderful and emotional experience though and it could very well click with both audiences and the Academy.
Up in the Air, however, already has universal praise (seems unlikely that that will change by the time of full release). It also may be the most timely film imaginable in our economically troubled times. Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, it apparently does strike a huge emotional chord with viewers. And having the classiest male star in the world as the face of the film and a couldn’t-be-more-likable director who represents a younger generation of filmmakers behind it certainly doesn’t hurt the film’s appeal.
Michael
The last year that I agreed with the academy’s decision for best picture was in 2003 with LOTR:ROtK, so I know whatever I think is actually best will not be what they think anyway. Just going on what everyone is saying I will probably have to say Precious, however I still have not seen it yet and would prefer to really pass judgment on it once I have seen it. It just seems like a film that has been developing a following for a long time that is really speaking to a lot of people, and not in a safe and predictable way (although this is just from critical praise and not from actual viewing the movie.) From the other possible contenders I feel like Nine is just too insignificant of a story, Avatar looks like a video game, Invictus is a little bit too safe, and The Lovely Bones looks a little too insistent. I have yet to see Up in the Air, but that is the only other movie that I think from what I’ve heard and read would be a timely and worthy film to win.
Mike
Precious. Because I’m pessimistic.
And because , well, it’s the Academy machine, folks. It seems that ever since the Crash debacle they’ve decided to just roll with the season and vote for whatever film wins everything leading up the Oscars so they don’ t get any more faux-controversy about voting for the film that isn’t destined to win (please note that I am most certainly NOT saying that Crash SHOULD have won). And Precious is absolutely destined to win. The machine started rolling in January, for God’s sake.
@Aspect_ratio: Some very valid points regarding the at-least-4-wins rule. I was surprised that you forgot to consider “The Hurt Locker” for Best Original Screenplay though. Mark Boal is definitely a prime contender in that category and could win. That category, in fact, is so empty and void of heavyweights really.
/3rtfu11
“I still don’t get how “Precious” inspired optimism.”
She learns her way out of illiteracy. Learns that Homos aren’t bad people – she has a desire to be a mother to her children that her mother never was to her.
Dan
Too early to call.
De’Garryan
PRECIOUS!!!! BECAUSE IT’S A GREAT FILM!!!!
Nasp
In my opinion, it’s between Nine and The Lovely Bones. Both have great cast, crew and plot.
But I’d really like to see Inglorious Basterds taking it, and Tarantino as the best director.
An Education would be a great surprise. And, my God, if A Single Man could get it, it’d be awesome!
For me, Precious or Up in the Air would be really disappointing, specially the first one.
My favorites ones are: The Lovely Bones, Nine, Inglorious Basterds, An Education and A Single Man.
Darbicus
At this point…I’d probably say that The Hurt Locker has an inside track to a win…given that it feels like Oscar is ready to reward a socially important movie.
Though my feelings on this could cahnge drastically from day to day…so take it for what its worth.
Derek 8-Track
of all the side bar predictions, ‘Up’ is the only one I’ve seen and it wont win.
I hope ‘Avatar’ wins!
I think “Up In The Air” might win because even though we’ve had many nominees of this kind, a “Juno/Little Miss Sunshine/Sideways/Lost in Translation” type movie hasn’t won yet.
Precious will probably win because it’s Indie, powerful, and a Black movie hasn’t won since ’67 (if we can even call that a black movie). Plus Obama is President.
Nasp
Since I don’t believe Peter Jackson, Coen Brothers or Clint Eastwood will receive another oscar for directing so soon, this category is very interesting.
Rob Marshall, for me, is the favorite, because he hasn’t been awarded when Chicago won BP, and he’s directing a wonderful cast, a very beautiful and glamurous musical.
Tarantino would be a great choice too. Jason Reitman is an option to seriously consider.
Lee Daniels, Lone Scherfig, Kathryn Bigelow are a bit too unknown.
The Best Director category will be so exciting, specially because it’ll, theorically, show the real 5 best pictures contenders.
aspect ratio
Other James D,
It’s certainly a contender for Original Screenplay, I just wanted to highlight that unlike several of the other BP contenders, it has realistic chances in tech categories to bring it to at least 4 wins.. certainly not saying it can’t take original screenplay as well if it goes all the way to a BP win.
Rogers
The Hurt Locker…
Other films:
Precious is falling over itself to get to the gold.
Up in the Air is not heavy enough.
Nine is Chicago, already been there.
Invictus is Eastwood, already been there.
Lovely Bones doesn’t look right.
A Serious Man is too good.
Avatar is sci fi, they don’t want Cameron again.
A strong British block vote for An Education will get it very close.
Why Hurt Locker?
Industry is frustrated they haven’t produced a good critique of the Iraq War, they want this.
This is Precious Lite in regards to political/social awareness, academy likes the lite choices.
Obama.
Academy want to show they are being progressive by awarding female director.
The major problem is that it didn’t make enough money, and I don’t personally love the film. An Education and Precious are main competition.
Al
I hate when people, like Mr. 64 route for a film that they haven’t seen yet. Despicable. Now then, it is true that people are predicting which films may win, but thats fine. Also, some do say they route for Hurt Locker, or Precious, etc….but those films were released already, and people have actually seen them.
I think “Up In The Air” might win because even though we’ve had many nominees of this kind, a “Juno/Little Miss Sunshine/Sideways/Lost in Translation” type movie hasn’t won yet.
Do we have to compare the worst movie of Juno to those great films? It makes me feel ill inside.
Derek 8-Track
I agree with you Al, but all I have right now are trailer and Up, and based on trailers, I want Avatar to win because it looks rockin’. The rest are just predictions.
Derek 8-Track
I agree James. I hate Juno! with a white hot intensity of a thousand suns. but you gotta admit, people group those movies together. I know people who wanted all those movies to win best picture. their tastes are drawn to those movies. they’re just easily grouped together.
Leone
Up In The Air – because it’s not only an accessible and universal film but it has the meaning that makes Oscar voters feel good. It is the defining film of this year with its subject matter and its humanity. Even though it tackles a difficult and top-of-mind topic (unemployment), it is ultimately a film about reinventing oneself. It’s a personal movie that makes you think about yourself, all truly great art does that.
Mr. Harmonica
Up in the Air.
The genuine zeitgeist.
Finwë
Avatar.
Because Avatar.
Chris138
I’ll probably get shit for this and am in the minority… but I hope whatever wins isn’t “A Serious Man”
Otherwise, it’s too early to call.
Matt
Because the award is not actually about awarding the best, but about hype and momentum, I’m going to see these are the films that have a chance:
Up in the Air
Precious
A Serious Man
Avatar
Different types of films, one of the may be the best of the year and I don’t know because I haven’t seen them, but these are the only ones that seem to have the backing and politics to pull off a win at the moment.
Ally
It’s going to be Nine. I can feel it. I don’t quite get why people think otherwise.
It has the most “Best Picturesque” vibe to it:
– Pretty colors.
– Pretty sets.
– Big name stars who are for the most part respectable and are previous (& RECENT) Oscar winners (who are also all pretty)
– Based on a Tony Award winning musical, which was based on a classic Oscar winning movie.
– It’s a musical, and the Academy seems to want people to think they like musicals (the Hugh Jackman/Beyonce musical montage anyone? “The Musical is Back”)
– And to top it off, Harvey Weinstein is the movie’s producer and pimp.
The logic is all there. Nine has a very good chance at winning unless it ends up sucking really really bad.
I suppose some of these factors can be said for The Lovely Bones. But if people are going to talk about how Nine reminds them of Chicago, then I’d like to say that The Lovely Bones reminds me of LOTR. (In terms of a non-fiction book aspect)
Dylan
The Academy loves giving pity Oscars to people/groups they have snubbed before (Kate Winslet, Scorsese, Arkin, etc.), so I’m wondering when they’ll ever repay the gay community for the Brokeback Mountain/Crash fiasco. I thought Milk would be the one, but that didn’t happen….is there a possibility A Single Man will be the one?
Precious
because of Obama, Oprah, and Tyler Perry.
Leone
While I think Precious is a very good film, I’m not feeling a win here and it’s intriguing to me that many do. Precious, is — at best — a really good, well acted film. At worst, it’s been overhyped, it’s difficult to watch and it’s a singular story about a very specific girl living in a very specific world. I just don’t think it it’s relatable enough to win an Oscar for best picture. I also think that the behavior of the director and Monique don’t help them and I further think that the Oprah/Tyler Perry train is a little over the top. Last but not least, it’s a film I NEVER want to watch again. Ever. Maybe that doesn’t take anything away from it’s value, but to me, it does — at least a little. I’m sorry to say. It’s disturbing and depressing. That said, Gabourey Sadibe is getting nominated and so is the film. And after seeing Gabourey on “Ellen”, I’ll be happy to see that. She’s absolutely charming.
It would be pretty awesome to see The Hurt Locker come back after being out of theatres for so long and win this.
I finally saw An Education today. Very good movie but I still like Locker and Serious Man more. I have Education and Precious ranked slightly below those two.
The best news is that we don’t know yet. I feel like the last three years it was so obvious what film would win. Finally we might have a year where it could still be up for grabs on awards night.
Nine because the other “frontrunners” have big ticks against them and until Nine is out we don’t know what its cons are. However, Bigelow will take Best Director.
Robin
I’m saying Up in the Air. It fits into the recent academy trend of films which didnt feel designed for Oscar from the get go, but which people “discover”, fall in love with, and then vote for. At the same time it is genuinely appealing to voters as it’s a hollywood production staring Clooney, directed by Reitman, mixing laughs and drama, capturing a contemporary mindset and entertaining at the same time. I’m sure it’ll make a lot of cash, and reviews are no problem already.
I’m still not sold on Precious. It’s focus seems low-key and quite narrow for a winner, as well as being quite a difficult watch. Opinion is somewhat divided already on it, and it’s been flogged to death already and the season hasn’t even officially started yet. It’ll need to strong BO to continue to carry it through the season, and I’m really not getting the impression the older, conservative white male voters will eat this one up.
Nine? Been there, done that.
Invictus? Token biopic nominee and shoutout to their darling Eastwood, but will need to be something incredibly special to generate passion for a win.
Holden
I think it will be a close race, and here is why.
The Hurt Locker – While an Iraq piece, the academy is notoriously a sucker for war films (Wings, All Quiet on the Western Front, Casablanca, Bridge on the River Kwai, Lawrence of Arabia, Patton, The Deer Hunter, Platoon, Saving Private Ryan, Born of the Fourth of July, Coning Home, Black Hawk Down, etc.) Many films discredit Iraq films because of their lack of nominations. That is because they mostly suck (with the exception of In the Valley of Elah.) It’s a safe bet it will take Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. It will also gain credit in the sound categories, and maybe an acting nomination for Renner and Mackie. It’s in a solid position to win. The only flaw is that it may be a tad forgotten. Hopefully it will run a good campaign, and will remind everyone of itself.
The Lovely Bones – Peter Jackson is a solid director/writer, and if this film gets good enough reviews, you can bet that it will get a few nominations. It’s a shoo in for Tucci, and Adapted Screenplay at the very least. Nominations will also be in order for Director, Editing, Cinematography, Score, and Art Direction. It may even garner noms in Lead Actor, Lead Actress, and a pair of Supporting Actress nominations. It only needs to get good reviews and it will most likely be nominated. We can only wait.
Nine – On paper, it seems like the obvious front runner. It has a cornucopia of stars, it’s a musical, a period piece, etc. It’s by the director of Chicago and Memoirs of a Geisha, both of which won multiple Oscars. The only thing holding it back is that even if it does well with the critics, it’s not particularly strong in any category. It would lose to Avatar or Up in the Sound Categories, Supporting Actress has gone to Mo’Nique, Adapted Screenplay would go to The Lovely Bones, Lead Actor is most likely to go to Freeman or Firth, Original Song is up in the air (I’m not trying to say it will go in the film Up in the Air, just that it’s undecided), the only categories it will likely win in are Art Direction and Costume Design, neither of which really are enough for a Best Picture.
Invictus – It has a good chance in Lead Actor, but nothing else. The only thing that makes myself worry is that it might turn out like Changeling. It has a lot high expectations very early on, and there is a very real possibility of failing with the critics. If it does well there, then I’m sure it will get a bunch of major noms. If it is inspirational and a masterpiece, it’ll win.
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire – I haven’t seen it, but if it has a triumph ending, then it will be this years Slumdog Millionaire. It’s got the reviews, the buzz, it’s building some precursor attention, and will surely be nominated, but it has to be happy enough to win.
Up – Arguably the best animated film in the last few years, and this year it will be in the best position to be nominated. It’s got the critics, the support, the box office, etc. It’s got a lot against it though; early release, its own category, not live action, limited categories. Even if it will be nominated, I don’t see it winning.
Up in the Air – Jason Rietman has not put out a bad film. Not only that, his two films (Thank You For Smoking, Juno) were both comedy gems. I’m not sure what genre this movie falls under yet, but it will more than likely be good. It has early word from Toronto, and the word is good. Clooney is a generally good actor, two supporting actresses both with potential to be nominated. It’s likely to be nominated for its Director and Screenplay. Though it looks like it will be a stellar picture, it’s lacking strength in all of its categories (the same dilemma facing Nine.) It has a predicament I like to call the “Shawshank Problem.” I believe that the film The Shawshank Redemption was the best picture of 1994, but it though each category it was in was not good enough to win against all the other films it lost to. Many will argue that Grand Hotel, and Mutiny on the Bounty was able to win Best Picture without winning anything else. Though not a film since then has won the top prize without winning at least one other award. But if the film is good enough, it will be nominated, and may win.
An Education – It has decent reviews, and good buzz. Though I think it will win Best Actress, get another two nominations for its screenplay and supporting actor (hopefully for Sarsgaurd instead of Molina.) No chance it will win.
Avatar – James Cameron has never made a bad film. Even Titanic, one of my least favorite films of all time has a decent amount of merit. It has a good chance of taking home a lot of technical awards (Film Editing, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing.) It will probably be nominated for its Score, and Art Direction. It may get nominated for Direction and Picture. It may be the first science fiction film to win. But that’s the problem; it’s a science fiction film, and very few ever get nominated, let alone win.
Inglorious Basterds – The dark horse of this race. It has everything to make it a nominee; Direction, Acting, Screenplay, Editing, Art Direction, Costume Design, etc. It’s got the box office, the reviews, the following, the first time in fifteen years that Quentin Tarantino will get nominated for anything. It will probably not win, but a nomination is possible.
A Serious Man – The Coen Brothers are undoubtedly the most original, and some of the greatest most revolutionary filmmakers of all time. If you look at their films from the past, the majority of them are comedies (Fargo, The Big Lebowski, Raising Arizona, O Brother Where Art Thou?, Burn After Reading, etc.) Even if they won three Oscars (not accounting for Javier Bardem) for No Country for Old Men, which was still pretty funny. They just don’t have enough support in their categories. They have Screenplay, and maybe Lead Actor and Cinematography. Not really a lot for it. Best Picture nomination? Maybe. Win? No.
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus – This is my own wish. Terry Gillian has always done solid work (Monty Python and the Holy Grail, Brazil, 12 Monkeys.) Even if it’s not an ideal nominee, it would be the coolest thing to see Gillan, the late Heath Legder, and the film as a whole get nominations. I would like to see that.
So, after all this dissection, which film is in the best position to take home the top prize? I’m going to put my money on The Hurt Locker. It has a lot for it, and it would be cool to see a fast paced war film take home the prize.
Jester
For those saying that they believe Precious is going to win have obviously not seen the film. Th reason it’s not going to win has nothing to do with it’s difficult subject matter, rather it’s over all quality. Simply stated: it’s not very good. Guy is right on (and I’ve been sensing in some of Kris’ recent posts and comments that perhaps he might regret the full four stars?). The voters might be taken for a day or so, but after that it will gracefully leave there minds, while films of substance like A Serious Man will stick around long after the lights go up.
After seeing Precious, I think it has a shot but won’t be the eventual runner.
Remember, selecting the winner is now gonna be based on a ranked passion vote.
Up in the air is playing the buzz game very well. It has alot of built up but not released buzz and it’s going to capitalize on it starting in a month when more people start talking about the movie.
Other than that, I think of-the-one-no-one-has-seen, The Lovely Bones and Nine have the best chance of racking up the passion index vote. Invictus and Avatar are not gonna win over enough #1s to raise their tally.
Based on the passion index, Precious is looking really good (which is a scary thought). I’m really hoping either Up in the Air, Nine, or Lovely Bones steals its buzz come December.
red_wine
Precious if it had been normal voting, pick 1 out of the nominees.
Up In The Air in the new system where all the nominees have to be ranked and the winner has to have over 50% support.
Why? Because I like it, but not enough to actually be happy if it wins. That’s how it works most of the time.
Also, I don’t like predicting films I haven’t seen, and of the contenders for BP I’ve only seen “Up” and “The Hurt Locker”, but I don’t see either of them winning.
m1
The Hurt Locker; It has the best reviews of almost any other contender this year and it has been a while since a traditional thriller has won (No Country for Old Men doesn’t count). It is also very suspenseful.
“Precious” at this writing should, but I think the Academy will go for “Up in the Air” a worthy winner — would love to see “The Hurt Locker” in the mix as well as “Up” which is neck and neck with “Precious” as best film of the year for me.
mike
The Hurt Locker
Where The Wild Things Are
This Is It
The Damned United
Star Trek
My 5 fav films this year and the most deserving
Dustin
either Avatar, or Up wins best picture
Lee Daniels wins Best Director
Meryl Streep wins Actress (or upset buy Sibide)
Jeff Bridges wins Actor
Julianne Moore wins Supporting Actress (or upset by Mariah Carey or Monique)
Chris Plummer wins Supporting Actor
Jason Reitman wins screenplay
Up wins animated
Whatever Armond White thinks is the worst film of the year, or at least down there in the bottom three. Right now, that appears to be “Precious,” so I’ll go with that one. That, and it’s one of the best-received movies so far this year.
I also think, if the Academy decides to go the way of 2003 and have a huge-budget movie win, it’ll be “Star Trek” or “Avatar.”
red_wine
Up winning Best Picture is a pipe dream. Its not gonna happen. Not that it won’t be a very good choice. An animated film is never ever going to win.
And Precious wasn’t as well received as was expected. It can’t even claim to be 1 of the 20 best reviewed films of the year. Up in The Air will fare much better.
Ben M.
My best guess would be Up in the Air: seems to fit the times, have decent commercial potential (really the R rating is the only thing making me doubt it could make as much as Juno), and has gotten acclaim at all its showings.
I could also see Precious (though having seen the film I understand some of the more mixed responses and feel they might just reward it in supporting actress), Invictus, or Avatar (if it it is the next Titanic/LOTR) winning.
Comments
124 responses to “What is going to win Best Picture and why?”
The Hurt Locker, contingent on getting a good campaign from Summit. If not, Up in the Air, which seems zeitgeisty, and will sit back and let Precious get backlashed.
I really want to say Precious because it’s the feel good yet depressing film. I also really want to say Invictus because they need to make up for snubbing Hotel Rwanda. However I’m going to say Avatar. Why? The new voting system.
Going by the de-facto “rule” that a Best Picture winner takes home at least four Oscars in total (Crash being the sole exception in the past 20 years with three wins), that certainly narrows things down a bit, although without any precursors it’s tough to say at the moment in certain key categories, like directing and writing.
Certainly one thing in favor of The Hurt Locker is that it’s easy to see it being nominated for Editing and Sound categories, it could reach the Magic Four mark with Picture, Director, Film Editing and Sound Mixing, for example without having to dominate the top categories.
Precious by comparison would have to win something like Picture, Director, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay to reach the Magic Four, a far more tall order (though hardly unimaginable).
Up in the Air feels like it could struggle to win four; Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay could surely happen if it’s heading to a Best Picture win, but can Clooney overtake Bridges and Firth, or Farmiga/Kendrick overtake Monique (and each other)? Film Editing? Tough to say..
But of course, there’s no real rule to say a film this year will need to take home four Oscars total to be the Best Picture. I can certainly imagine Precious being a film that could win the top prize without enormous support elsewhere, a la Crash.
So I’m guessing that’s my pick for now, Precious for Best Picture in a BP/BD split with Kathryn Bigelow taking home Best Director.
Precious. Up In The Air is going to hit the same wall that Duplicity did in the spring.
From what I have been reading, I think it will be between Up in the Air and Precious. I think The Hurt Locker and An Education deserve noms and Avatar may round out five.
It would be excellent to include A Single Man, but I don’t see that happening just yet.
If A Serious Man is nominated I will not be happy.
Up in the Air largely because, as a previous poster said, the other selections don’t seem very likely.
I sincerely doubt that Precious will win. It could, but there’s already a sense of discontent amongst several groups who find the film overpraised. Invictus could be a possibility, but I don’t think they’ll be itching to award an Eastwood film when it’s already been expressed how much they value his work this decade. Nine will certainly remind people too much of Chicago, and I don’t think they’ll want to award a film when it’s basically a repeat of a previous triumph (although I expect it to be superb and dazzling nonetheless).
An unexpected knockout could be The Lovely Bones, which is interesting since it was considered a frontrunner early this year. But people seem skeptical of its success now. I, however, have not seen anything that should suggest that it can’t turn out a wonderful and emotional experience though and it could very well click with both audiences and the Academy.
Up in the Air, however, already has universal praise (seems unlikely that that will change by the time of full release). It also may be the most timely film imaginable in our economically troubled times. Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, it apparently does strike a huge emotional chord with viewers. And having the classiest male star in the world as the face of the film and a couldn’t-be-more-likable director who represents a younger generation of filmmakers behind it certainly doesn’t hurt the film’s appeal.
The last year that I agreed with the academy’s decision for best picture was in 2003 with LOTR:ROtK, so I know whatever I think is actually best will not be what they think anyway. Just going on what everyone is saying I will probably have to say Precious, however I still have not seen it yet and would prefer to really pass judgment on it once I have seen it. It just seems like a film that has been developing a following for a long time that is really speaking to a lot of people, and not in a safe and predictable way (although this is just from critical praise and not from actual viewing the movie.) From the other possible contenders I feel like Nine is just too insignificant of a story, Avatar looks like a video game, Invictus is a little bit too safe, and The Lovely Bones looks a little too insistent. I have yet to see Up in the Air, but that is the only other movie that I think from what I’ve heard and read would be a timely and worthy film to win.
Precious. Because I’m pessimistic.
And because , well, it’s the Academy machine, folks. It seems that ever since the Crash debacle they’ve decided to just roll with the season and vote for whatever film wins everything leading up the Oscars so they don’ t get any more faux-controversy about voting for the film that isn’t destined to win (please note that I am most certainly NOT saying that Crash SHOULD have won). And Precious is absolutely destined to win. The machine started rolling in January, for God’s sake.
@Aspect_ratio: Some very valid points regarding the at-least-4-wins rule. I was surprised that you forgot to consider “The Hurt Locker” for Best Original Screenplay though. Mark Boal is definitely a prime contender in that category and could win. That category, in fact, is so empty and void of heavyweights really.
“I still don’t get how “Precious” inspired optimism.”
She learns her way out of illiteracy. Learns that Homos aren’t bad people – she has a desire to be a mother to her children that her mother never was to her.
Too early to call.
PRECIOUS!!!! BECAUSE IT’S A GREAT FILM!!!!
In my opinion, it’s between Nine and The Lovely Bones. Both have great cast, crew and plot.
But I’d really like to see Inglorious Basterds taking it, and Tarantino as the best director.
An Education would be a great surprise. And, my God, if A Single Man could get it, it’d be awesome!
For me, Precious or Up in the Air would be really disappointing, specially the first one.
My favorites ones are: The Lovely Bones, Nine, Inglorious Basterds, An Education and A Single Man.
At this point…I’d probably say that The Hurt Locker has an inside track to a win…given that it feels like Oscar is ready to reward a socially important movie.
Though my feelings on this could cahnge drastically from day to day…so take it for what its worth.
of all the side bar predictions, ‘Up’ is the only one I’ve seen and it wont win.
I hope ‘Avatar’ wins!
I think “Up In The Air” might win because even though we’ve had many nominees of this kind, a “Juno/Little Miss Sunshine/Sideways/Lost in Translation” type movie hasn’t won yet.
Precious will probably win because it’s Indie, powerful, and a Black movie hasn’t won since ’67 (if we can even call that a black movie). Plus Obama is President.
Since I don’t believe Peter Jackson, Coen Brothers or Clint Eastwood will receive another oscar for directing so soon, this category is very interesting.
Rob Marshall, for me, is the favorite, because he hasn’t been awarded when Chicago won BP, and he’s directing a wonderful cast, a very beautiful and glamurous musical.
Tarantino would be a great choice too. Jason Reitman is an option to seriously consider.
Lee Daniels, Lone Scherfig, Kathryn Bigelow are a bit too unknown.
The Best Director category will be so exciting, specially because it’ll, theorically, show the real 5 best pictures contenders.
Other James D,
It’s certainly a contender for Original Screenplay, I just wanted to highlight that unlike several of the other BP contenders, it has realistic chances in tech categories to bring it to at least 4 wins.. certainly not saying it can’t take original screenplay as well if it goes all the way to a BP win.
The Hurt Locker…
Other films:
Precious is falling over itself to get to the gold.
Up in the Air is not heavy enough.
Nine is Chicago, already been there.
Invictus is Eastwood, already been there.
Lovely Bones doesn’t look right.
A Serious Man is too good.
Avatar is sci fi, they don’t want Cameron again.
A strong British block vote for An Education will get it very close.
Why Hurt Locker?
Industry is frustrated they haven’t produced a good critique of the Iraq War, they want this.
This is Precious Lite in regards to political/social awareness, academy likes the lite choices.
Obama.
Academy want to show they are being progressive by awarding female director.
The major problem is that it didn’t make enough money, and I don’t personally love the film. An Education and Precious are main competition.
I hate when people, like Mr. 64 route for a film that they haven’t seen yet. Despicable. Now then, it is true that people are predicting which films may win, but thats fine. Also, some do say they route for Hurt Locker, or Precious, etc….but those films were released already, and people have actually seen them.
I think “Up In The Air” might win because even though we’ve had many nominees of this kind, a “Juno/Little Miss Sunshine/Sideways/Lost in Translation” type movie hasn’t won yet.
Do we have to compare the worst movie of Juno to those great films? It makes me feel ill inside.
I agree with you Al, but all I have right now are trailer and Up, and based on trailers, I want Avatar to win because it looks rockin’. The rest are just predictions.
I agree James. I hate Juno! with a white hot intensity of a thousand suns. but you gotta admit, people group those movies together. I know people who wanted all those movies to win best picture. their tastes are drawn to those movies. they’re just easily grouped together.
Up In The Air – because it’s not only an accessible and universal film but it has the meaning that makes Oscar voters feel good. It is the defining film of this year with its subject matter and its humanity. Even though it tackles a difficult and top-of-mind topic (unemployment), it is ultimately a film about reinventing oneself. It’s a personal movie that makes you think about yourself, all truly great art does that.
Up in the Air.
The genuine zeitgeist.
Avatar.
Because Avatar.
I’ll probably get shit for this and am in the minority… but I hope whatever wins isn’t “A Serious Man”
Otherwise, it’s too early to call.
Because the award is not actually about awarding the best, but about hype and momentum, I’m going to see these are the films that have a chance:
Up in the Air
Precious
A Serious Man
Avatar
Different types of films, one of the may be the best of the year and I don’t know because I haven’t seen them, but these are the only ones that seem to have the backing and politics to pull off a win at the moment.
It’s going to be Nine. I can feel it. I don’t quite get why people think otherwise.
It has the most “Best Picturesque” vibe to it:
– Pretty colors.
– Pretty sets.
– Big name stars who are for the most part respectable and are previous (& RECENT) Oscar winners (who are also all pretty)
– Based on a Tony Award winning musical, which was based on a classic Oscar winning movie.
– It’s a musical, and the Academy seems to want people to think they like musicals (the Hugh Jackman/Beyonce musical montage anyone? “The Musical is Back”)
– And to top it off, Harvey Weinstein is the movie’s producer and pimp.
The logic is all there. Nine has a very good chance at winning unless it ends up sucking really really bad.
I suppose some of these factors can be said for The Lovely Bones. But if people are going to talk about how Nine reminds them of Chicago, then I’d like to say that The Lovely Bones reminds me of LOTR. (In terms of a non-fiction book aspect)
The Academy loves giving pity Oscars to people/groups they have snubbed before (Kate Winslet, Scorsese, Arkin, etc.), so I’m wondering when they’ll ever repay the gay community for the Brokeback Mountain/Crash fiasco. I thought Milk would be the one, but that didn’t happen….is there a possibility A Single Man will be the one?
Precious
because of Obama, Oprah, and Tyler Perry.
While I think Precious is a very good film, I’m not feeling a win here and it’s intriguing to me that many do. Precious, is — at best — a really good, well acted film. At worst, it’s been overhyped, it’s difficult to watch and it’s a singular story about a very specific girl living in a very specific world. I just don’t think it it’s relatable enough to win an Oscar for best picture. I also think that the behavior of the director and Monique don’t help them and I further think that the Oprah/Tyler Perry train is a little over the top. Last but not least, it’s a film I NEVER want to watch again. Ever. Maybe that doesn’t take anything away from it’s value, but to me, it does — at least a little. I’m sorry to say. It’s disturbing and depressing. That said, Gabourey Sadibe is getting nominated and so is the film. And after seeing Gabourey on “Ellen”, I’ll be happy to see that. She’s absolutely charming.
It would be pretty awesome to see The Hurt Locker come back after being out of theatres for so long and win this.
I finally saw An Education today. Very good movie but I still like Locker and Serious Man more. I have Education and Precious ranked slightly below those two.
The best news is that we don’t know yet. I feel like the last three years it was so obvious what film would win. Finally we might have a year where it could still be up for grabs on awards night.
A Single Man.
Nine because the other “frontrunners” have big ticks against them and until Nine is out we don’t know what its cons are. However, Bigelow will take Best Director.
I’m saying Up in the Air. It fits into the recent academy trend of films which didnt feel designed for Oscar from the get go, but which people “discover”, fall in love with, and then vote for. At the same time it is genuinely appealing to voters as it’s a hollywood production staring Clooney, directed by Reitman, mixing laughs and drama, capturing a contemporary mindset and entertaining at the same time. I’m sure it’ll make a lot of cash, and reviews are no problem already.
I’m still not sold on Precious. It’s focus seems low-key and quite narrow for a winner, as well as being quite a difficult watch. Opinion is somewhat divided already on it, and it’s been flogged to death already and the season hasn’t even officially started yet. It’ll need to strong BO to continue to carry it through the season, and I’m really not getting the impression the older, conservative white male voters will eat this one up.
Nine? Been there, done that.
Invictus? Token biopic nominee and shoutout to their darling Eastwood, but will need to be something incredibly special to generate passion for a win.
I think it will be a close race, and here is why.
The Hurt Locker – While an Iraq piece, the academy is notoriously a sucker for war films (Wings, All Quiet on the Western Front, Casablanca, Bridge on the River Kwai, Lawrence of Arabia, Patton, The Deer Hunter, Platoon, Saving Private Ryan, Born of the Fourth of July, Coning Home, Black Hawk Down, etc.) Many films discredit Iraq films because of their lack of nominations. That is because they mostly suck (with the exception of In the Valley of Elah.) It’s a safe bet it will take Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. It will also gain credit in the sound categories, and maybe an acting nomination for Renner and Mackie. It’s in a solid position to win. The only flaw is that it may be a tad forgotten. Hopefully it will run a good campaign, and will remind everyone of itself.
The Lovely Bones – Peter Jackson is a solid director/writer, and if this film gets good enough reviews, you can bet that it will get a few nominations. It’s a shoo in for Tucci, and Adapted Screenplay at the very least. Nominations will also be in order for Director, Editing, Cinematography, Score, and Art Direction. It may even garner noms in Lead Actor, Lead Actress, and a pair of Supporting Actress nominations. It only needs to get good reviews and it will most likely be nominated. We can only wait.
Nine – On paper, it seems like the obvious front runner. It has a cornucopia of stars, it’s a musical, a period piece, etc. It’s by the director of Chicago and Memoirs of a Geisha, both of which won multiple Oscars. The only thing holding it back is that even if it does well with the critics, it’s not particularly strong in any category. It would lose to Avatar or Up in the Sound Categories, Supporting Actress has gone to Mo’Nique, Adapted Screenplay would go to The Lovely Bones, Lead Actor is most likely to go to Freeman or Firth, Original Song is up in the air (I’m not trying to say it will go in the film Up in the Air, just that it’s undecided), the only categories it will likely win in are Art Direction and Costume Design, neither of which really are enough for a Best Picture.
Invictus – It has a good chance in Lead Actor, but nothing else. The only thing that makes myself worry is that it might turn out like Changeling. It has a lot high expectations very early on, and there is a very real possibility of failing with the critics. If it does well there, then I’m sure it will get a bunch of major noms. If it is inspirational and a masterpiece, it’ll win.
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire – I haven’t seen it, but if it has a triumph ending, then it will be this years Slumdog Millionaire. It’s got the reviews, the buzz, it’s building some precursor attention, and will surely be nominated, but it has to be happy enough to win.
Up – Arguably the best animated film in the last few years, and this year it will be in the best position to be nominated. It’s got the critics, the support, the box office, etc. It’s got a lot against it though; early release, its own category, not live action, limited categories. Even if it will be nominated, I don’t see it winning.
Up in the Air – Jason Rietman has not put out a bad film. Not only that, his two films (Thank You For Smoking, Juno) were both comedy gems. I’m not sure what genre this movie falls under yet, but it will more than likely be good. It has early word from Toronto, and the word is good. Clooney is a generally good actor, two supporting actresses both with potential to be nominated. It’s likely to be nominated for its Director and Screenplay. Though it looks like it will be a stellar picture, it’s lacking strength in all of its categories (the same dilemma facing Nine.) It has a predicament I like to call the “Shawshank Problem.” I believe that the film The Shawshank Redemption was the best picture of 1994, but it though each category it was in was not good enough to win against all the other films it lost to. Many will argue that Grand Hotel, and Mutiny on the Bounty was able to win Best Picture without winning anything else. Though not a film since then has won the top prize without winning at least one other award. But if the film is good enough, it will be nominated, and may win.
An Education – It has decent reviews, and good buzz. Though I think it will win Best Actress, get another two nominations for its screenplay and supporting actor (hopefully for Sarsgaurd instead of Molina.) No chance it will win.
Avatar – James Cameron has never made a bad film. Even Titanic, one of my least favorite films of all time has a decent amount of merit. It has a good chance of taking home a lot of technical awards (Film Editing, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing.) It will probably be nominated for its Score, and Art Direction. It may get nominated for Direction and Picture. It may be the first science fiction film to win. But that’s the problem; it’s a science fiction film, and very few ever get nominated, let alone win.
Inglorious Basterds – The dark horse of this race. It has everything to make it a nominee; Direction, Acting, Screenplay, Editing, Art Direction, Costume Design, etc. It’s got the box office, the reviews, the following, the first time in fifteen years that Quentin Tarantino will get nominated for anything. It will probably not win, but a nomination is possible.
A Serious Man – The Coen Brothers are undoubtedly the most original, and some of the greatest most revolutionary filmmakers of all time. If you look at their films from the past, the majority of them are comedies (Fargo, The Big Lebowski, Raising Arizona, O Brother Where Art Thou?, Burn After Reading, etc.) Even if they won three Oscars (not accounting for Javier Bardem) for No Country for Old Men, which was still pretty funny. They just don’t have enough support in their categories. They have Screenplay, and maybe Lead Actor and Cinematography. Not really a lot for it. Best Picture nomination? Maybe. Win? No.
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus – This is my own wish. Terry Gillian has always done solid work (Monty Python and the Holy Grail, Brazil, 12 Monkeys.) Even if it’s not an ideal nominee, it would be the coolest thing to see Gillan, the late Heath Legder, and the film as a whole get nominations. I would like to see that.
So, after all this dissection, which film is in the best position to take home the top prize? I’m going to put my money on The Hurt Locker. It has a lot for it, and it would be cool to see a fast paced war film take home the prize.
For those saying that they believe Precious is going to win have obviously not seen the film. Th reason it’s not going to win has nothing to do with it’s difficult subject matter, rather it’s over all quality. Simply stated: it’s not very good. Guy is right on (and I’ve been sensing in some of Kris’ recent posts and comments that perhaps he might regret the full four stars?). The voters might be taken for a day or so, but after that it will gracefully leave there minds, while films of substance like A Serious Man will stick around long after the lights go up.
After seeing Precious, I think it has a shot but won’t be the eventual runner.
Remember, selecting the winner is now gonna be based on a ranked passion vote.
Up in the air is playing the buzz game very well. It has alot of built up but not released buzz and it’s going to capitalize on it starting in a month when more people start talking about the movie.
Other than that, I think of-the-one-no-one-has-seen, The Lovely Bones and Nine have the best chance of racking up the passion index vote. Invictus and Avatar are not gonna win over enough #1s to raise their tally.
Based on the passion index, Precious is looking really good (which is a scary thought). I’m really hoping either Up in the Air, Nine, or Lovely Bones steals its buzz come December.
Precious if it had been normal voting, pick 1 out of the nominees.
Up In The Air in the new system where all the nominees have to be ranked and the winner has to have over 50% support.
The answer to this question is Precious
So easy… Precious, of course.
I think that “Up in The Air” will edge out “Precious” in the Best Picture category.
I give it a slight edge because the movie’s theme is so apropo as to what is happening today in corporate America.
If they still had a five pic nomination system my prediction would be…
“Up in The Air”
“Precious”
“The Hurt Locker”
“An Education”
The fifth would be…”Invictus” – “The Lovely Bones’ – “”Nine”
An Education.
Why? Because I like it, but not enough to actually be happy if it wins. That’s how it works most of the time.
Also, I don’t like predicting films I haven’t seen, and of the contenders for BP I’ve only seen “Up” and “The Hurt Locker”, but I don’t see either of them winning.
The Hurt Locker; It has the best reviews of almost any other contender this year and it has been a while since a traditional thriller has won (No Country for Old Men doesn’t count). It is also very suspenseful.
“Precious” at this writing should, but I think the Academy will go for “Up in the Air” a worthy winner — would love to see “The Hurt Locker” in the mix as well as “Up” which is neck and neck with “Precious” as best film of the year for me.
The Hurt Locker
Where The Wild Things Are
This Is It
The Damned United
Star Trek
My 5 fav films this year and the most deserving
either Avatar, or Up wins best picture
Lee Daniels wins Best Director
Meryl Streep wins Actress (or upset buy Sibide)
Jeff Bridges wins Actor
Julianne Moore wins Supporting Actress (or upset by Mariah Carey or Monique)
Chris Plummer wins Supporting Actor
Jason Reitman wins screenplay
Up wins animated
Whatever Armond White thinks is the worst film of the year, or at least down there in the bottom three. Right now, that appears to be “Precious,” so I’ll go with that one. That, and it’s one of the best-received movies so far this year.
I also think, if the Academy decides to go the way of 2003 and have a huge-budget movie win, it’ll be “Star Trek” or “Avatar.”
Up winning Best Picture is a pipe dream. Its not gonna happen. Not that it won’t be a very good choice. An animated film is never ever going to win.
And Precious wasn’t as well received as was expected. It can’t even claim to be 1 of the 20 best reviewed films of the year. Up in The Air will fare much better.
My best guess would be Up in the Air: seems to fit the times, have decent commercial potential (really the R rating is the only thing making me doubt it could make as much as Juno), and has gotten acclaim at all its showings.
I could also see Precious (though having seen the film I understand some of the more mixed responses and feel they might just reward it in supporting actress), Invictus, or Avatar (if it it is the next Titanic/LOTR) winning.