What is going to win Best Picture and why?

Posted by · 1:13 pm · November 7th, 2009

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124 responses so far

  • 1 11-08-2009 at 8:53 am

    The Other James D. said...

    @Dustin: You do realize that there are two screenplay categories, right?

    @Joel: No, it’s definitely not. Early fanaticism isn’t equivocal to the cumulative ratings in the end. Like red_wine said, it’s not in the Top 20. Looking at Metacritic’s scores for this year so far, it is definitely *not* in the Top 15.

    I think “Precious” being shoved down the throats of many is cause enough for the Academy to say no. It might be a repeat of a “Brokeback Mountain” fiasco, where early traction is behind it, but AMPAS voters say “pfft”.

    With Oprah and Tyler Perry TELLING them how amazing it is, it’s likely to turn off people. Oscar voters are notorious for hating to be told what to do (most of the time).

  • 2 11-08-2009 at 9:11 am

    Salma said...

    Up in the air.

    Humorous dramedy.
    Academy friendly.
    And George Clooney.
    Need I say more?

  • 3 11-08-2009 at 9:48 am

    Morgan said...

    I simply can’t believe the buzz over “Precious” is going to hold out until Oscar time, especially if non-Oprah audiences don’t go see it, which is quite possible. The buzz on the movie has started too soon.

    Again, I think we’re due for a late entry in the sweepstakes and I’m wondering if that film is “Agora.”

  • 4 11-08-2009 at 9:51 am

    The Other James D. said...

    I thought “Agora” is supposed to be a bomb. Weren’t there tons of early pans?

  • 5 11-08-2009 at 10:58 am

    Kate said...

    The Hurt Locker, and Bigelow best director :)

  • 6 11-08-2009 at 11:03 am

    Scott said...

    “Precious” peaked too early and won’t connect with the majority of Oscar voters. The Academy has already shown that it loves Jason Reitman; he was nominated for Best Director for one of the weakest Best Picture nominees in years. We also know they love da Clooney. Combine that with the face that “Up in the Air” is more timely and culturally relevant than any of the other possible nominees, and I think we have our winner.

  • 7 11-08-2009 at 11:04 am

    Scott said...

    FACT, damn it, not face.

  • 8 11-08-2009 at 11:14 am

    Derek 8-Track said...

    @ Scott,
    How is up in the air culturally relevant? I haven’t seen it and can’t figure it out from the trailer.

  • 9 11-08-2009 at 11:34 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Jester: You sense wrong. It’s a four star work of art in my mind.

  • 10 11-08-2009 at 11:40 am

    The Other James D. said...

    @Derek: Try reading the plot summary–it’s all about job losses and our dwindling economy, in this financial crisis. Clooney’s character’s job is to fire people when other companies are, basically, too chickenshit to do it themselves. I think he explicitly stated that in one UITA trailer, in fact. You must’ve only seen the teasers.

  • 11 11-08-2009 at 1:00 pm

    Brian said...

    Of movies that have been seen, it’s Up in the Air vs. Precious. Everything else is an also ran, no matter what wishing there might be.

    Of the three big guns (Lovely Bones, Nine, Invictus) left to see, any of those could win it.

  • 12 11-08-2009 at 1:37 pm

    Derek 8-Track said...

    @Other James D.
    Yep. thanks.

  • 13 11-08-2009 at 2:30 pm

    Glenn said...

    “For those saying that they believe Precious is going to win have obviously not seen the film. ”

    You say that as if everyone should have seen it by now. Not everyone has been deemed worthy enough to see it yet.

  • 14 11-08-2009 at 3:10 pm

    Patryk said...

    Best Picture: “Nine”
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow

    Possible upset: “Up in the Air”

    Also ran: “The Hurt Locker” Has any film with such a low box office total ever won Best Picture?

    NOT nominated: Lee Daniels

  • 15 11-08-2009 at 3:20 pm

    Mike said...

    Nine
    The Lovely Bones
    or
    Up in the Air

    I’m just not seeing Precious winning. Kris seeing as you have seen Crazy Heart, do you think it has a shot at winning or even being nominated for best picture?

  • 16 11-08-2009 at 3:24 pm

    Maxim said...

    I will only say this after last year’s Awards Ceremony I have little faith that the ultimate winner would actually be any good.

    I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

    Personally though, I think it would be really cool to see a woman win a Best Director award.

  • 17 11-08-2009 at 3:34 pm

    The Other James D. said...

    @Patryk: You have to also consider the extremely modest budget that “The Hurt Locker” had rather than its total in comparison to others.

  • 18 11-08-2009 at 6:01 pm

    Andrew said...

    Up in the Air for Picture.

    The Hurt Locker for Director.

    Totally late for the conversation and it’s been said before, but “Precious” will be too divisive. I hate to say it, but its campaign will be marred by Carey-Perry-Monique backlash. Look for it to pick up some other awards – Supporting Actress, and maybe even Actress and Adapted Screenplay.

    “The Hurt Locker” will turn out to be the critical darling of the year, but box office will destroy its chances at the big prize. It will pick up a hefty batch, though, with Director, Cinematography, Editing, and Sound Editing, with possible wins for Original Screenplay and Sound Mixing.

    “Invictus” will walk away empty handed, the victim of “we’ve already given you all awards before”. Matt Damon will have to wait another year.

    “An Education” will be too ‘European’ to win the big award, but will fight for Actress.

    “Avatar” will fall short of expectations, killing it’s chance at the big award. It will also be seen as a masterpiece of visual effects and little else; therefore, it’s sole award will be Visual Effects.

    “Nine” will pull a “Dreamgirls”. Comparisons to “Chicago” and “8 1/2” will dullen it’s appeal, although it may walk away with some craft awards, namely Art Direction and Costume.

    “Up” will have unfavourable comparisons with the un-nominated “Wall-E”, and the category bias. However, it will still walk away with Animated, Score, and maybe even Original Screenplay.

    “Inglourious Basterds” is too violent and divisive, and will certainly offend many voters who will accuse it of disrespect. However, there’s no way they’ll give the Supporting Actor award to any one else after that performance.

    That is, until they see Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”, which will represent the film’s sole win. I suspect this may be the biggest threat right now, and may change the game completely when it unveils in December.

    So why “Up in the Air”? Respect for Reitman and Clooney, broad appeal, universal raves, little controversy, box office and no unfavourable comparisons. It doesn’t have to compete against any source material, Clooney is a Hollywood god, and Reitman was a surprise nomination a few years ago. He’s three for three in quality, and with the past year of economic disaster, some comedy will be appreciated. But what’s strange about this? It doesn’t look like it’s a threat in any other category. It will be battling for every other award it gets nominated in. Do we have a BP with a single award, maybe two for Screenplay?

    Picture: Up in the Air
    Director: The Hurt Locker
    Actor: Colin Firth, A Single Man
    Actress: Gabby Sidibe, Precious
    Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci, Lovely Bones
    Supporting Actress: Monique, Precious
    Original Screenplay: Up? The Hurt Locker?
    Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
    Editing: The Hurt Locker
    Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
    Art Direction: Nine
    Costume: Nine
    Makeup: District 9
    Score: Up
    Song: The Princess and the Frog
    Sound Mixing:
    Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker
    Visual Effects: Avatar
    Animated: Up

  • 19 11-08-2009 at 10:07 pm

    Jane said...

    It Nine, Invictus or Lovely Bones meets expectations (80+ score on Rotten Tomatoes), any one of them could be the big winner. All three have Oscar favorites at the helm and on screen, will probably get some acting buzz, and are the types of films Oscar voters love.

    If those three don’t live up, then I see Precious or Up in the Air winning.

    I don’t think Avatar is even getting nominated; predicting a win is a little delusional. I think it would have to get like over 95 on Rotten Tomatoes to have the slightest chance of winning. I see the Academy easily choosing Inglourious Bastereds for the “popular” box office slot over Avatar.

  • 20 11-09-2009 at 7:51 am

    DHE said...

    Agora has broken crazy box office records in Spain for some reason, which is why suddenly U.S. distribs are interested again. So who knows, maybe it’s all in the translation. The movie has had 20 minutes cut for a U.S. release, so maybe that’s considered an improvement.

  • 21 11-09-2009 at 8:40 am

    Sawyer said...

    Precious or Invictus. I’d say it’s a toss up.

  • 22 11-09-2009 at 8:40 am

    Sawyer said...

    Precious or Invictus. It’s a complete tossup right now.

  • 23 11-09-2009 at 9:09 am

    Mike_M said...

    There are still a bunch of movies that haven’t been released yet, but I think the winner will be Up In the Air and 2nd option is The Lovely Bones, 3rd is probably A Serious Man.

  • 24 11-09-2009 at 2:44 pm

    Joe W said...

    I have no idea.

    Up in the Air is a fantastic film and I would be perfectly happy with it winning but I just don’t see it as a Best Picture.

    Precious seems to small to win it (nomination is the reward)

    Invictus seems to have a been there, done that feel to it (not to say it won’t be great). I just think it would be a boring Best Picture winner and voters want a movie that gets them excited

    The Lovely Bones could be outstanding but I don’t know if the mix of thriller with the fantasy world will work for a lot of Academy voters

    The Hurt Locker feels like Precious in that it is too small of a movie to win it big

    Nine feels more like Dreamgirls to me than Chicago

    So maybe Avatar if it really blows everyone away and is a box office titanic (just the pun) and well reviewed by critics

    So I would say it could be
    – Avatar
    – Up in the Air
    – The Lovely Bones

    Outside threats: Precious, The Hurt Locker, Invictus