124 responses to “What is going to win Best Picture and why?”
Vito
As of right now, I say Precious has the greatest chance. The performances from everyone are pretty staggering, and it seems to play to the Academy’s strengths more than anything else I’ve seen so far. However, I think that Nine and Invictus are the major challengers to Precious.
Zizo Abul Hawa
Precious. Because eveybody (aside from Guy) loves it.
“Precious.” Because I’ve liked the last three BP winners and it can’t continue.
And because it feels “important” but not high-minded.
Jim T
I keep forgetting The Lovely Bones even if it is my most anticipated film of the year. I’ll keep it out of predictions.
Precious. It will make them cry and vote.
Anonymous
Up in the Air, kinda by default. Because in my opinion:
Invictus’s mix of politics and sports is gonna be too slow and boring…and Clint is coming off what many consider to be two of his weaker efforts.
Nine is going to remind people too much of Chicago, which is still a fairly recent winner, and one that has kind of earned a backlash since its win…a backlash that only strengthened when Rob Marshall proved he can’t back up the razzle dazzle with real story in Memoirs of a Geisha
Precious is already getting a backlash for seeming too calculated (“depress the hell out of the audience by throwing every possible obstacle at the protagonist” syndrome). And insiders already seem annoyed with the people behind the film (Mariah Carey forself-aggrandizing her “ugliness,” Lee Daniels being not being humble enough, Mo’Nique for being a diva…and the “Tyler Perry” stamp might be golden for the boxoffice, but it’s poison for the Academy).
Also, in Up in the Air’s defense, it seems like it could not be a more timely film (coinciding with the economic downturn and all), so audiences will likely connect with it more than with a rugby player, a womanizing director, or an abused 300 pound black girl…and let’s face it, we all want to be George Clooney…
tim
Up in the Air. Just cuz.
geha714
The ten nominees experiment makes the category more difficult.
Right now I’ll think Up in the Air, Precious and Invictus as the only locks. For the other seven, the race is wide open.
I’m personally rooting for Up and The Hurt Locker to get two of the slots.
I’m gonna go Werner Herzog for a second here and say that if “Up” wins the Oscar for Best Picture I will eat my shoe. with a huge smile on my face.
Me.
The frontrunner is “Precious”.
The Oscars have been honoring darker, more brutal films in the last few years (“No Country for Old Men”, “The Departed”) as well as independent films (“Slumdog Millionaire”, “Milk”). “Precious” has both of these factors on its side.
The fact that it’s the only film to have ever won the Grand Jury prize at the Sundance film festival and the Audience Award at the Toronto film festival only makes it look stronger.
It’s also getting solid reviews as of now and Roger Ebert is backing it up.
Oprah Winfrey and the rest of the cast and crew are making a huge campaign for the film.
I really really don’t want “Precious” to win Best Picture. I have liked all the Best Picture winners of this decade and I don’t want “Precious” to ruin it. I’m a realist and I’m predicting it but if there’s a chance of stopping it, I’m really counting on Peter Jackson and “The Lovely Bones” to a be a stunning film (and the trailer delivers).
Matt T
Either The Lovely Bones or Up in the Air.
If The Lovely Bones is as great as I think want it to be, then it will win. If not, then Up in the Air will win.
Precious will turn too many people off, and Invictus and Nine don’t seem as personal as what a winner should probably be.
Corey
RE: Me
You think that Precious would ruin the string of Best Picture winners of this decade? are you aware of the BP winners of 01 & 05? I hardly think that if Precious won it would ruin anything.
Precious – tons of momentum for the film AND heart/emotional factor. May not be the biggest hit at the critics awards but should really do well with guild-level awards.
NINE
– because it has a lot of stars.
– because the people from the technical branches are voting for it.
– because IT CANNOT BE A FAILURE :P even Memoirs of a Geisha had its fans.
– because there will be major SPLIT VOTE between the dramas, so nothing controversial for the win.
Can you please stop with PRECIOUS winning??? Is Tony Curtis voting for Precious to win? Is Jerry-the-sound-guy (whoever he is) voting for Precious??? come on… Crash had some manly stuff going on, which reached a wider audience. At least Nine has hot chicks. [in jerry’s opinion]
JP
The way the Academy members vote changed in the past few years. If they make a choice in the same line of these past 5 years, the winner will be Up in the Air.
If they opt for a Hollywoodian film, something they don’t do since The Lord of the Rings, I’d say the winner will be either The Lovely Bones or Nine.
Nigel Bridgeman
I’m not getting a Best Picture vibe from any of the supposed front-runners this year. I honestly don’t know what will win – something tells me it will be a roll of the d6 (rather than a flip of the coin) next year with a bunch of possibilities.
That said, I’m confident it won’t be Precious, Nine or Invictus. No, I can’t offer anything to back up this opinion.
Me.
At Corey
I LOVED “A Beautiful Mind”! It’s such an amazing film! Russell Crowe and Jennifer Connelly gives astounding performances. The whole concept of schizophrenia was incredibly well portrayed on screen.
I also really liked “Crash”. It’s a vibrant, resounding film, with two unforgettable scenes.
Bob McBob
“Up”; because it’s the best film of the year, and since Pixar is finally allowed to compete with live-action films, it will easily win against the meager opposition this year.
al b.
Avatar
yes I said it and I’ll say it again… Avatar
Perhaps this is just wishful thinking, but I don’t think the Academy can ignore the big movies for too long! Sure Crash and No Country and Slumdog were small fare, but it’s about time AMPAS voted on the big studio movies, especially after they snubbed Dark Knight!
That is a brief explanation as to why Avatar will win the Academy Award for Best Picture of 2009!
Bryan
Invictus – Clint, Freeman, biopic: been there, done that.
Nine – Dancing babes – been there, done that.
Up in the Air – Clooney-lite. Didn’t we just give him an oscar?
Precious – big black girl with a sucky life. Have we done this? I don’t think we’ve done this. Let’s do it.
So far I’d say Up in the Air or The Hurt Locker. I think Precious could *just* miss it.
rickets
Up in the Air. Reasoning:
(1) It will turn out to be the true critics darling, come year’s end.
(2) Absolutely no controversy surrounding the film (as detractors of Precious are now instigating)
(3) In keeping with the winners of recent years, it is a ‘smaller film’, but and has the most beloved movie star of the decade as its heart (playing a close-to-persona character, at that)
(4) Timely subject matter that will allow voters to feel like they are still making ‘an important’
(5) Box office will be respectable and place it in the middle tier of the 10 movies nominated (a statistic that bodes well for the win!)
Me.
Although if Penélope, Nicole, Kate and Marion turn the voters on the way they turned me on in that trailer, “Nine” could win.
Hero
I really liked Anon’s reasoning for Up in the Air. I think I’ll go with that for now.
Henry
Invictus has a more epic feel and broader marketability and I’m predicting that means it will do better with the ranked voting system.
There’s also something of an Obama inspirational globalism/multiculturalism factor that’s awkward to explain but very real when you’re talking about Hollywood voters.
Precious is a plausible alternative, and it benefits from a recession era optimism. My only knock is that it’s a smaller budget character study with less romance and whimsy than Slumdog.
“Up in the Air.” It has been a hard year for a lot of people, and I think they will connect to this movie because it addresses their problems but replaces much of the gravity with a touch of levity.
Me.
I still don’t get how “Precious” inspired optimism.
Up In the Air. It stars Clooney, it’s very well acted, written and directed and plus it comes at a perfect time. It’ll resonate with a lot of people – It’s going to be a huge hit.
alt. The Hurt Locker (which will win Director) because it’s the most riveting and intense experience of the year. It puts a face on Iraq.
Aaron
I agree that Precious will NOT win. The stars of the film are being obnoxious, there’s too big of a campaign push for the film, and unlike Slumdog Millionaire (whose buzz started building out of Toronto), Precious’s has been going full throttle the whole year…so I think by the time the Oscars happen, there will be a major Precious overkill.
‘Precious’ because you can’t stop the fucking machine.
KB
“Precious” because we haven’t seen anything else yet…
Morgan
I wonder if “Agora” is going to become the last-minute Best Picture spoiler a la Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”… now that Sony is looking to release it in the U.S. after its performance overseas…
The old geezers that make up the Academy will see themselves in Carl while the children of lazy voters will go for it because it’s “their” type of film.
Nine probably wont win because Chicago won this decade. It’s going to play as Chicago-lite. And let’s face it, the songbook doesnt pop as loudly as Chicago’s
Invictus probably won’t win because of Eastwood’s success this decade. It would need to be a masterpiece, which seems somewhat unlikely.
The Lovely Bones probably doesnt have enough excitement to win. Not as in its narrative but the buzz surrounding the film, the whys of it all, why should we (they) award PJ again?
Up, An Education, Inglourious Basterds, Bright Star, A Serious Man, A Single Man, The Hurt Locker, their nominations are the reward.
I don’t think Precious will make enough money to win. Yes yes, I know it did really well this weekend. But that was pretty much guaranteed (LA/NY/ATL/CHI). It would need to be one of the top grossing BP nominees of the year to win. It needs a mandate to win, outside of being a black film and a brutal and grotesque look at a side of life few see.
That leaves two films.
Avatar, if it makes over $300m by mid-January, has 85+% fresh on RT and equal success on MC, and is nominated for PGA/DGA, I feel will win.
If any of the above doesn’t happen, I think the win goes to Up in the Air. The film will probably be one of the highest grossing films “in contention” AND it’s a dramedy, which would create a nice narrative of not another sad little film winning BP. “The change to 10 Best Picture nominees worked” they will say.
Peter M.
Paranormal Activity
The Dude
“9”
No, not “Nine.” “9.” Because the Academy is gonna get confused…
Me.
LMAO at The Dude.
Cameron
Up in the Air. Reitman’s rising swiftly in the Hollywood ranks, the film resonates perfectly with the zeitgeist, and it has George-frickin’-Clooney in it. If not that, then probably Precious.
Of course, if it were up to me, I’d go with A Serious Man, with Where the Wild Things Are for Best Director.
MouseRat
Lovely Bones has a good mix of things that could be appealling to voters….unique narrative, wowing imagery, emotionally gut-wrenching story and an uplifting message.
Jake D
Up in the Air’s themes are timely, it’s got two people the Academy has certainly approved of in the past (Clooney and Reitman). Precious is going to get a lot of 7’s and 8’s from the people who couldn’t quite stomach it, and Up in the Air (which a lot of people might view as the #2 or #3 right now) won’t suffer from that kind of voting. Even those who don’t love it will put it fairly high on the list.
Precious is just too hard of an R, methinks.
Alex
Up in the Air – seems to have everything going for it but depends on how it opens.
Up – made me cry.
Al
Up In the Air – no, too modern for academy, almost generic
Nine- best shot, if it is indeed reminiscent of 8 1/2 while still being its own thing.
Precious – good shot, although possibly for the wrong reasons.
Invictus – on the fence with this one, Clints movies are either front runners or left on the back burner.
Avatar – has a slim chance, I personally both feel and hope the academy agrees that the story is not only generic, but suffocated by the tech.
Hurt Locker – no, all the insane buzz took place more than half a year before the awards.
“The Hurt Locker” will surprise many by taken a potential heap of the critics awards, and being the first war film (and a current one, at that) in many years to win the big prize. When voters see/saw it, many [will] feel/felt passionate about it. Plus, with Kathryn Bigelow being a prime contender, they might see it fit to match up BP and BD.
However, if they want to split and give Bigelow the award, then BP will likely go to “Up in the Air”. After all, with no split since ’05, it’s almost like we’re due, no?
Comments
124 responses to “What is going to win Best Picture and why?”
As of right now, I say Precious has the greatest chance. The performances from everyone are pretty staggering, and it seems to play to the Academy’s strengths more than anything else I’ve seen so far. However, I think that Nine and Invictus are the major challengers to Precious.
Precious. Because eveybody (aside from Guy) loves it.
Don’t know.
Precious, lovely bones, invictus and nine…
“Precious.” Because I’ve liked the last three BP winners and it can’t continue.
And because it feels “important” but not high-minded.
I keep forgetting The Lovely Bones even if it is my most anticipated film of the year. I’ll keep it out of predictions.
Precious. It will make them cry and vote.
Up in the Air, kinda by default. Because in my opinion:
Invictus’s mix of politics and sports is gonna be too slow and boring…and Clint is coming off what many consider to be two of his weaker efforts.
Nine is going to remind people too much of Chicago, which is still a fairly recent winner, and one that has kind of earned a backlash since its win…a backlash that only strengthened when Rob Marshall proved he can’t back up the razzle dazzle with real story in Memoirs of a Geisha
Precious is already getting a backlash for seeming too calculated (“depress the hell out of the audience by throwing every possible obstacle at the protagonist” syndrome). And insiders already seem annoyed with the people behind the film (Mariah Carey forself-aggrandizing her “ugliness,” Lee Daniels being not being humble enough, Mo’Nique for being a diva…and the “Tyler Perry” stamp might be golden for the boxoffice, but it’s poison for the Academy).
Also, in Up in the Air’s defense, it seems like it could not be a more timely film (coinciding with the economic downturn and all), so audiences will likely connect with it more than with a rugby player, a womanizing director, or an abused 300 pound black girl…and let’s face it, we all want to be George Clooney…
Up in the Air. Just cuz.
The ten nominees experiment makes the category more difficult.
Right now I’ll think Up in the Air, Precious and Invictus as the only locks. For the other seven, the race is wide open.
I’m personally rooting for Up and The Hurt Locker to get two of the slots.
Let’s see in December… Right now it’s too early.
Up.
Just to make things interesting. ;)
An Education.
I’m gonna go Werner Herzog for a second here and say that if “Up” wins the Oscar for Best Picture I will eat my shoe. with a huge smile on my face.
The frontrunner is “Precious”.
The Oscars have been honoring darker, more brutal films in the last few years (“No Country for Old Men”, “The Departed”) as well as independent films (“Slumdog Millionaire”, “Milk”). “Precious” has both of these factors on its side.
The fact that it’s the only film to have ever won the Grand Jury prize at the Sundance film festival and the Audience Award at the Toronto film festival only makes it look stronger.
It’s also getting solid reviews as of now and Roger Ebert is backing it up.
Oprah Winfrey and the rest of the cast and crew are making a huge campaign for the film.
I really really don’t want “Precious” to win Best Picture. I have liked all the Best Picture winners of this decade and I don’t want “Precious” to ruin it. I’m a realist and I’m predicting it but if there’s a chance of stopping it, I’m really counting on Peter Jackson and “The Lovely Bones” to a be a stunning film (and the trailer delivers).
Either The Lovely Bones or Up in the Air.
If The Lovely Bones is as great as I think want it to be, then it will win. If not, then Up in the Air will win.
Precious will turn too many people off, and Invictus and Nine don’t seem as personal as what a winner should probably be.
RE: Me
You think that Precious would ruin the string of Best Picture winners of this decade? are you aware of the BP winners of 01 & 05? I hardly think that if Precious won it would ruin anything.
Precious – tons of momentum for the film AND heart/emotional factor. May not be the biggest hit at the critics awards but should really do well with guild-level awards.
Whatever has the most backlash…
Up in the Air or An Education.
There aren’t many winners that aren’t middle-of-the-road and the change in rules plays to that way of thinking as well.
NINE
– because it has a lot of stars.
– because the people from the technical branches are voting for it.
– because IT CANNOT BE A FAILURE :P even Memoirs of a Geisha had its fans.
– because there will be major SPLIT VOTE between the dramas, so nothing controversial for the win.
Can you please stop with PRECIOUS winning??? Is Tony Curtis voting for Precious to win? Is Jerry-the-sound-guy (whoever he is) voting for Precious??? come on… Crash had some manly stuff going on, which reached a wider audience. At least Nine has hot chicks. [in jerry’s opinion]
The way the Academy members vote changed in the past few years. If they make a choice in the same line of these past 5 years, the winner will be Up in the Air.
If they opt for a Hollywoodian film, something they don’t do since The Lord of the Rings, I’d say the winner will be either The Lovely Bones or Nine.
I’m not getting a Best Picture vibe from any of the supposed front-runners this year. I honestly don’t know what will win – something tells me it will be a roll of the d6 (rather than a flip of the coin) next year with a bunch of possibilities.
That said, I’m confident it won’t be Precious, Nine or Invictus. No, I can’t offer anything to back up this opinion.
At Corey
I LOVED “A Beautiful Mind”! It’s such an amazing film! Russell Crowe and Jennifer Connelly gives astounding performances. The whole concept of schizophrenia was incredibly well portrayed on screen.
I also really liked “Crash”. It’s a vibrant, resounding film, with two unforgettable scenes.
“Up”; because it’s the best film of the year, and since Pixar is finally allowed to compete with live-action films, it will easily win against the meager opposition this year.
Avatar
yes I said it and I’ll say it again… Avatar
Perhaps this is just wishful thinking, but I don’t think the Academy can ignore the big movies for too long! Sure Crash and No Country and Slumdog were small fare, but it’s about time AMPAS voted on the big studio movies, especially after they snubbed Dark Knight!
That is a brief explanation as to why Avatar will win the Academy Award for Best Picture of 2009!
Invictus – Clint, Freeman, biopic: been there, done that.
Nine – Dancing babes – been there, done that.
Up in the Air – Clooney-lite. Didn’t we just give him an oscar?
Precious – big black girl with a sucky life. Have we done this? I don’t think we’ve done this. Let’s do it.
So far I’d say Up in the Air or The Hurt Locker. I think Precious could *just* miss it.
Up in the Air. Reasoning:
(1) It will turn out to be the true critics darling, come year’s end.
(2) Absolutely no controversy surrounding the film (as detractors of Precious are now instigating)
(3) In keeping with the winners of recent years, it is a ‘smaller film’, but and has the most beloved movie star of the decade as its heart (playing a close-to-persona character, at that)
(4) Timely subject matter that will allow voters to feel like they are still making ‘an important’
(5) Box office will be respectable and place it in the middle tier of the 10 movies nominated (a statistic that bodes well for the win!)
Although if Penélope, Nicole, Kate and Marion turn the voters on the way they turned me on in that trailer, “Nine” could win.
I really liked Anon’s reasoning for Up in the Air. I think I’ll go with that for now.
Invictus has a more epic feel and broader marketability and I’m predicting that means it will do better with the ranked voting system.
There’s also something of an Obama inspirational globalism/multiculturalism factor that’s awkward to explain but very real when you’re talking about Hollywood voters.
Precious is a plausible alternative, and it benefits from a recession era optimism. My only knock is that it’s a smaller budget character study with less romance and whimsy than Slumdog.
“Up in the Air.” It has been a hard year for a lot of people, and I think they will connect to this movie because it addresses their problems but replaces much of the gravity with a touch of levity.
I still don’t get how “Precious” inspired optimism.
Up In the Air. It stars Clooney, it’s very well acted, written and directed and plus it comes at a perfect time. It’ll resonate with a lot of people – It’s going to be a huge hit.
alt. The Hurt Locker (which will win Director) because it’s the most riveting and intense experience of the year. It puts a face on Iraq.
I agree that Precious will NOT win. The stars of the film are being obnoxious, there’s too big of a campaign push for the film, and unlike Slumdog Millionaire (whose buzz started building out of Toronto), Precious’s has been going full throttle the whole year…so I think by the time the Oscars happen, there will be a major Precious overkill.
The Lovely Bones
‘Precious’ because you can’t stop the fucking machine.
“Precious” because we haven’t seen anything else yet…
I wonder if “Agora” is going to become the last-minute Best Picture spoiler a la Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”… now that Sony is looking to release it in the U.S. after its performance overseas…
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118010988.html?categoryid=3800&cs=1&nid=2564
Up.
The old geezers that make up the Academy will see themselves in Carl while the children of lazy voters will go for it because it’s “their” type of film.
Avatar will win*
I’ll try to be as scientific as possible here:
Nine probably wont win because Chicago won this decade. It’s going to play as Chicago-lite. And let’s face it, the songbook doesnt pop as loudly as Chicago’s
Invictus probably won’t win because of Eastwood’s success this decade. It would need to be a masterpiece, which seems somewhat unlikely.
The Lovely Bones probably doesnt have enough excitement to win. Not as in its narrative but the buzz surrounding the film, the whys of it all, why should we (they) award PJ again?
Up, An Education, Inglourious Basterds, Bright Star, A Serious Man, A Single Man, The Hurt Locker, their nominations are the reward.
I don’t think Precious will make enough money to win. Yes yes, I know it did really well this weekend. But that was pretty much guaranteed (LA/NY/ATL/CHI). It would need to be one of the top grossing BP nominees of the year to win. It needs a mandate to win, outside of being a black film and a brutal and grotesque look at a side of life few see.
That leaves two films.
Avatar, if it makes over $300m by mid-January, has 85+% fresh on RT and equal success on MC, and is nominated for PGA/DGA, I feel will win.
If any of the above doesn’t happen, I think the win goes to Up in the Air. The film will probably be one of the highest grossing films “in contention” AND it’s a dramedy, which would create a nice narrative of not another sad little film winning BP. “The change to 10 Best Picture nominees worked” they will say.
Paranormal Activity
“9”
No, not “Nine.” “9.” Because the Academy is gonna get confused…
LMAO at The Dude.
Up in the Air. Reitman’s rising swiftly in the Hollywood ranks, the film resonates perfectly with the zeitgeist, and it has George-frickin’-Clooney in it. If not that, then probably Precious.
Of course, if it were up to me, I’d go with A Serious Man, with Where the Wild Things Are for Best Director.
Lovely Bones has a good mix of things that could be appealling to voters….unique narrative, wowing imagery, emotionally gut-wrenching story and an uplifting message.
Up in the Air’s themes are timely, it’s got two people the Academy has certainly approved of in the past (Clooney and Reitman). Precious is going to get a lot of 7’s and 8’s from the people who couldn’t quite stomach it, and Up in the Air (which a lot of people might view as the #2 or #3 right now) won’t suffer from that kind of voting. Even those who don’t love it will put it fairly high on the list.
Precious is just too hard of an R, methinks.
Up in the Air – seems to have everything going for it but depends on how it opens.
Up – made me cry.
Up In the Air – no, too modern for academy, almost generic
Nine- best shot, if it is indeed reminiscent of 8 1/2 while still being its own thing.
Precious – good shot, although possibly for the wrong reasons.
Invictus – on the fence with this one, Clints movies are either front runners or left on the back burner.
Avatar – has a slim chance, I personally both feel and hope the academy agrees that the story is not only generic, but suffocated by the tech.
Hurt Locker – no, all the insane buzz took place more than half a year before the awards.
“The Hurt Locker” will surprise many by taken a potential heap of the critics awards, and being the first war film (and a current one, at that) in many years to win the big prize. When voters see/saw it, many [will] feel/felt passionate about it. Plus, with Kathryn Bigelow being a prime contender, they might see it fit to match up BP and BD.
However, if they want to split and give Bigelow the award, then BP will likely go to “Up in the Air”. After all, with no split since ’05, it’s almost like we’re due, no?
Taking*.