No column today, as mentioned previously. We’ll pick it up weekly on 9/21, but I thought I’d run a comb through the sidebar today. Some weak spots, no doubt, but we’re still knocking the dust off things as the season prepares its post-Toronto launch.
Comments
25 responses to “Mid-Toronto Oscar update”
man i hope they trim that Precious title. Also I’d be surprised if Get Low is still Get Low by the time it’s released for reasons you pointed out earlier today.
having seen Nine your supporting actress category definately needs some work, and i think that there will definately be room for the lovely bones in the best picture line up, hopefully inglorious basterds as well but thats just personal taste, also where the wild things are and the road hopefully will find a spot, i cant wait for amelia to bomb!(havent seen it, just dont want it taking other sots)
i see you’ve bumped up Stanley Tucci and Susan Sarandon! are you hearing good buzz, or is there some other factor?
There’s one thing everyone seems to be overlooking at the moment: given that it seems the live-action is limited to the first act of the film, Avatar might actually be something of a heavy-hitter in the Best Animated Feature category.
Rubi-Kun: With that logic, why not just let 500 Days of Summer be nominated for best animated film because of its blue bird in the dance sequence? The animated film category is for films of animation. Not live action integration and not mo-cap.
Jester: The requirements for the category specify that 75% of a film has to be animated for it to qualify. Films with some live-action elements (Wall-E, The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie, Looney Tunes: Back in Action) have been deemed eligible, as have mo-cap films (The Polar Express, Monster House, Beowulf). If the CGI takes up 75% of the film (which it very well could), then its chances in the category are at least as good as A Christmas Carol’s.
It’s not about being “deemed eligible.” A studio has to submit the film as animation for it to be considered in that category. As I can guarantee Fox won’t be doing that with Avatar, we can move on from this notion swiftly.
…seriously, Ms. Cornish will never have a chance in Reesetown. Whatever the truth might be.
I was not aware Lil Jon and the ying yang twins were still that present in the national consciousness. GET LOW should be fine.
observe how all the actors are above all the actresses in alphabetical order
I will Cornish to get a Best Actress nom; at this point the only one I want a nom (well, actually win) for more is Streep. I’d love if Swank didn’t get a nom.
Interesting that you moved both Hurt Locker guys out and both Get Low guys in. Hurt IS mostly being looked at as masterfully directed film rather than for its performances. Though I read a review that said Murray isn’t even in Get Low that much.
I’d prefer Scherfig>Bigelow. Why Sarandon>Weisz? I’d much prefer the latter. Though I wonder if the film really will get 3 acting noms.
Farmiga vs. Kendrick will be interesting…While Cruz has the most-lauded role for the incarnations of the play, Dench & Cotillard are close behind and I’d prefer Cotillard to Dench by far even though I think she robbed Page of the Oscar.
Hopefully 500 Days gets no major nom anywhere.
You’ve got The Hurt Locker and Nine for Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing. We all know these categories go together, You think its a duke out between these two for the big win?
Cotillard will be a lead actress push for Nine, FYI.
Bill: Not really. Just peeling back the layers of the season. Precious could easily be an editing nominee, too.
Maybe Up in the Air could show up too. Movies don’t really win Best Picure without an editing nom.
Your Lovely Bones predictions, all told, do strike as a bit strange. Three acting noms and a screenplay but nothing in the big two races? This is a Jackson film, after all….But I do personally agree that Tucci’s chances are strong. Not so much for Sarandon but that’s just a hunch.
Do you think the Embraces screenplay nom will be out of legit merit or just excess Almodovar love? Funny People’s out, but there’s always Invention of Lying as far as comedy goes. It’s a bit of a stretch judging by the marketing. Might be a missed opportunity for the studio.
I’d love to see Bill Murray back in the race again but I doubt the work will be strong enough to justify it. If only they’d given him a nom for Groundhog Day.
Besides that, I think your predics are pretty solid.
A “Jackson film?” So was “King Kong.” I don’t think Jackson’s name immediately makes a film an Oscar get quite yet.
The “Broken Embraces” prediction is really just filler, something to replace “(500) Days of Summer.” Maybe something will surface.
What I meant by “this is a Jackson film” was that the movie won’t be performance driven. I’d expect it to show up heavily in the technical categories and possibly in the big races before such a strong showing in the acting quartet.
I’m with you in doubting its chances in Best Director and most likely Picture. I just mean to remind you that this is a guy who directed one of only three Best Pictures in history not to have an acting nomination. And he cast Jack Black as Carl Denham. That’s why I’d rescind the Sarandan and possibly Ronan nods from your predictions unless you think it’ll make a big show. In which case it’ll definitely show up in a field of ten.
Have you seen Heavenly Creatures, Bill? And have you read the book? I think it will be very much performance driven.
We’ll see. I hope you’re right.
“one of only three Best Pictures in history not to have an acting nomination”
Eleven, actually. Three in the last 15 years alone.
I still don’t quite understand what the film will give Ronan to do. It’s such a passive role in the book.
Variety: “The dialogue is peppered with choice bits of droll humor, and Murray –smooth and subtle in a showcase role — lays claim to many of them. Indeed, the pic is most appealing during scenes in which Murray’s deadpan wit plays off Duvall’s dour irascibility, and both actors effortlessly bring out the best in each other. If Murray seems just a tad overmatched, that’s entirely appropriate for the relationship between their characters.
Duvall’s more emotionally charged scenes with Spacek and Cobbs are low-key yet powerful.”
I don’t really care about any seemingly viable entries to Sup Actor, so why not. I liked him in Translation quite a bit, less than Penn though.
Jeremy Renner, I hope like everyone else, will be this year’s Richard Jenkins.
Matt Damon, while awesome, is still trying to get a nod out of a comedic role, right? He might have to settle for the support for Invictus. And win for it because of Informant!
It’s not just a comedic role, it’s one of the best performances of the year. And his best to date.
From EW’s Oscarwatch:
“Looks like Meryl Streep finally has some Best Actress competition.”
The guy also thinks that Capitalism has a better chance at BP than An Education, Abbie>Gabourey, and Schneider but not Whishaw has a viable chance; same with Molina>Sarsgaard. & Kendrick/Farmiga are duking it out.
Sounds pretty much like what I’ve been saying for a while. ;) Though he’s crazy if he thinks Capitalism has the ups on An Education. It’s very much in the race, but on the bubble, I’d say.