It’s somewhat surprising that our year-in-advance Oscar coverage is only three months old. That now ancient list of predictions seems so long ago, and yet, even with Cannes behind us and this or that indication of a few of the contenders, I have no idea how to offer an educated update beyond general housekeeping. The season, it seems, will remain elusive for just a little while longer.
Here’s what we know: Critics didn’t respond to Universal’s “The Boat That Rocked” across the pond. But the Brits hardly have a soft spot for Richard Curtis. Along similar lines, Stephen Frears’s “Chéri” hasn’t exactly inspired either. But both films, from awards savvy studios, could find a second wind when they eventually open Stateside.
The biggest Oscar hopeful to emerge from this year’s Cannes fest is, in my opinion, Jane Campion’s “Bright Star.” Heralded in some quarters as a return to form for the director, and snatched up by the intrepid Bob Berney (formerly of Picturehouse and now closing in on a name for his distribution company with partner Bill Polhad), the film could be a nominations hog, anywhere from six to 10 possibilities. You’ll note all of my ponderings in that regard in the latest chart update below.
Beyond Campion’s period piece, there was little to write home about, it seems. Focus’s “Taking Woodstock” from director Ang Lee, perceived by some to be the studio’s big hopeful a few months back, landed quietly on the Croisette and quickly became an afterthought. But it’s easy to get lost in the shuffle of a Lars Von Trier scandal and buzz surrounding festival favorites Michael Haneke and Quentin Tarantino. We all know mediocre can go a long way in an Oscar campaign, so it would be unwise to count anything out just yet. That said, there could be other options for the studio.
Speaking of Tarantino, his latest indulgence, “Inglourious Basterds,” was a different film to different people, but the subtext seemed to be, “Oh, Quentin,” as usual. That didn’t stop Christoph Waltz from taking an acting prize at the fest, so perhaps we have a new supporting actor contender on the radar. But will The Weinstein Company have the campaign funds to handle both “Basterds” and perceived heavy “Nine?”
Also notable: Pedro Almodóvar’s latest, “Broken Embraces,” was largely seen as a step into safer territory than the auteur’s usual brand of daring cinema. For some, that means Oscar could shy away, but if we’re being honest, some accessibility could do Almodóvar a lot of good when it comes to AMPAS.
The obvious cinephile must-see to come out of the fest, of course, was Von Trier’s “Antichrist,” which landed an award for actress Charlotte Gainsbourg. But it’s probably safe to assume the conservative Academy won’t find much to admire in a film saddled with accusations of misogyny from a filmmaker with the biggest ego this side of…well, Quentin Tarantino.
So beyond Campion’s film, what do we really have? Pretty much the same thing we had three months ago.
All of the expected heavy-hitters (Weinstein’s “Nine,” Searchlight’s “Amelia” and Warners’ Mandela film) may as well stay put for now, while the Paramount slate still appears somewhat dubious until we know more (tough subject matter in Peter Jackson’s “The Lovely Bones” and perhaps merely commercial potential for Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island,” though that didn’t stop “The Departed).
All of that said, I’ve had a feeling since Sundance, and certainly now with a standing ovation in Cannes, that Lionsgate could jump back into the ring again this season with one of the year’s most acclaimed films to date: Lee Daniels’s “Precious.” It’ll pack the heavy punch of an Oprah Winfrey endorsement, which certainly helped Lionsgate in 2005 when “Crash” slipped up on everyone. Then again, nothing came of her support for “Australia” last year, so its no ace in the hole.
From our perch here at the end of May, however, “Precious” simply seems to have that “little film that could” potential percolating. It could face off against fellow Sundance hit “An Education” in that regard, but Lionsgate will have all its eggs in one basket, while Sony Classics has a typically full slate of indies to promote and no clear focus yet.
Rather than drive myself crazy with more speculation on unseen contenders, there are some considerations for films that have already been widely screened, if not already released. Will the director’s branch recognize Kathryn Bigelow’s astute handling of the surprisingly complex “The Hurt Locker?” Better yet, will the acting branch see Jeremy Renner’s performance as the controlled piece of artistry that it is? Or could the film simply be rendered moot by the upcoming “Green Zone?”
Can Pixar finally find its way into Best Picture contention for “Up,” another home run and, for many, a watershed moment in the studio’s maturation? Or what about the most critically acclaimed release of 2009: J.J. Abrams’ “Star Trek?” Could it find more tech room than it would have without the lauds and boffo box office?
Sadly, however, that’s where the first half of the year hits a roadblock, outside of an obvious animation home run for Focus and “Coraline.” I can’t remember the last time there wasn’t at least one clear awards favorite from the January-June time frame. Maybe when the buzz swirls around “The Hurt Locker” a little more next month that will change things.
I won’t bother with meaningless speculation on the year’s upcoming contenders (yet), but one thing that has been on my mind is a question I imagine we’ll all have to ask sooner or later: If James Cameron’s “Avatar” is going to be this big game changer, should it not follow that the film will have a significant Oscar impact? We’ll see.
As I shuffled through the charts for an arbitrary update, I began to sense an extremely light playing field. Of course, a number of titles have yet to pick up distribution and that could change things in an instant. I refrain from listing a contender on the charts until it has secured domestic release, though all possibilities, as always, are listed in our Contenders sections.
But it’s been a bit of a struggle regardless to fill lists of 10 throughout. Hopefully that isn’t an indication that we’re heading for another weak season, but if last year was taught us anything, it’s that when it comes to the Oscar game, Hollywood can make chicken salad out of chicken…well, you get the picture.
On to the update. We’ll revisit things again in a month or two, depending on what happens. Enjoy:
Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
The Contenders
Oscar Prediction Archives
Comments
60 responses to “OFF THE CARPET: Taking the temperature”
Great column. The weird impression I get as I look down the contenders list is that, while I can spy several typical-looking Best Picture nominees, nothing overtly screams “WINNER” to me. It seems a rather safe bunch … here’s hoping there’s something that comes in from left field and really knocks people out.
For now, I share your faith in “Bright Star” — Campion could be able to work the “first female two-time Director nominee” angle for media attention. If the year really pans out weakly — by which I only mean that “Bright Star” looks like the kind of small, literary effort that routinely gets nominated, but never wins — that could even help get her in the winners’ circle.
By the way, speaking as a Brit who has no problem with Richard Curtis whatsoever, “The Boat That Rocked” is quite plainly a terrible, terrible film.
Haha, I hear you on “Boat.”
Interesting to note that Campion could be joined by Bigelow and Mira Nair in the derby this year, too.
I’m no expert, but I think the buzz is really there at the moment for Viggo Mortensen for Best Actor and Funny People for Original Screenplay (which seems like a very crowded category). I have some feeling that the Day-Lewis/Damon/DiCaprio situation may be similar to the DiCaprio/Pitt problem last year, where it’s too many big names and we’ll only see one or the other. It could make room for Adam Sandler or Mortensen.
I can’t say much about Ben Wishaw but Abbie Cornish is getting more buzz. Although I liked the trailer I saw I really don’t think the acting was exceptional.
Morgan Freeman, Matt Damon, Leonard di Caprio and Daniel Day-Lewis are all not getting nominated. One or two from that group at the most. There are people no one is taling about right now that will surface later on in the year.
And Penelope Cruz will not get two nominations. She has a much better chance of getting one for Nine.
P.S. Why is Chrisoph Waltz not listed in best supporting category? I don’t know if he will make it but right now he looks promising.
Why not put “Where the Wild Things Are” in some of the charts? Based on the trailer and stills, I can see it getting costume design and cinematography nominations. If movies like Narnia, The Golden Compass, and A series of unfortunate events managed to get some nominations, why not this?
Then again, the final product remains to be seen.
Wow @ the “Precious” love. I can definitely see Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay, even Best Actress, but I think Daniels gets snubbed. It may be one of those things where they reward the film but snubbed the director and that’s where someone like Bigelow sneaks in.
Word on “Amelia” has been great from what I heard, so that’s why something like “Lovely Bones” seems more likely…plus it’s a tearjerker, which never hurts. I am in the camp that feels Jackson was overlooked for “King Kong” so this could be his ‘welcome back’ film. I’m very curious and slightly frighten by Walhberg’s casting especially considering how horrible he was in “The Happening”. But the story is so great and he has a talented cast and he know how to work with actors. I say “Lovely Bones” over “Amelia” but maybe Swank get a nom…they love her!
I really enjoyed the column and your insight!
Princess of Peace: Waltz is listed in the supporting actor chart at #6. As for the rest, forgive me if I feel like saying this or that “will” happen or “will not” happen is just silly at this stage.
Mr. F: I actually meant to include Jonze on the director chart, but ran out of room. You’re right about some tech areas, though, and it is certainly one of my most anticipated films. I’ll probably hold off for now, but it’s certainly on the radar (and listed in all the categories you mention over in the Contenders section).
…as for “Amelia”…I meant word has NOT been great.
I think that Bright Star will likely get some, including actress, but I’m not sure about Picture/Director/actor. Period dramas get the Oscar bait tag on them, which ends up working against them.
And whilst reviews were good, I’ve heard just as many who dismissed it as bland, dull and unmoving. Cornish has the buzz, and it always seems easier for young actresses to get nods over young actors.
Also very excited to hear that Tree of Life will be released this year.
And yes, Boat that rocked is terrible.
Several of your predictions seem very against current thought so offering you the chance to expand on your thoughts about:
Leaving The Lovely Bones almost completely out? It seems everyone is thinking its shaping up to be a masterpiece and has just as much buzz as Nine.
Especially when you favor Amelia in so many categories very high- what do you see in it beyond a rather average biopic that most other people are expecting?
I agree that Bright Star definitely has potential now (even though I wouldn’t rate in the top 5 of anything besides screenplay at this point) but why are you predicting Ben Wishaw for actor? The best reviews I read about the film said he was competent at best.
I think there is an extermely low chance Penelope will be nomiated for Broken Embraces. Foreign films have to be really excellent to get notices and I seriosly doubt the Academy would nominate her for a foreign language film by the same director they nominated her for 3 years ago thats supposedly not as good, when she just won an oscar last year, and has a much batier role in the supporting race for Nine. Thats like 5 things strongly against her favor for Broken Embraces.
All the reviews from press screenings of Julie & Julia have said it is beyond question that Meryl and Amy are co-leads, have you heard differently?
Cool, except I feel like the love is a little out of control for Brightstar, its currently in the 70’s on rottentomatoes. Kris dont underestimate Paramount, Star Trek, Iron Man, they have what it takes to pull of two best picture nominations with shutter island and the lovely bones. Have you seen bright star kris or is this hear say?
“Also very excited to hear that Tree of Life will be released this year.”
There is no confirmation on this. I’m still hearing it’ll be 2010 and frankly, knowing Malick, that makes more sense.
“Leaving The Lovely Bones almost completely out? It seems everyone is thinking its shaping up to be a masterpiece and has just as much buzz as Nine.”
The studio is shy about considering it an “Oscar movie,” mainly due to subject matter. Doesn’t mean anything, of course, but I’d rather look elsewhere until at the very least, those working on the film show some level of enthusiasm. Anyone thinking it’ll be a big Oscar movie right now is merely connecting the dots from beloved novel to awards bet a bit too quickly, I think.
“Especially when you favor Amelia in so many categories very high- what do you see in it beyond a rather average biopic that most other people are expecting?”
By “most other people,” you’re essentially referring to a cult of anti-Hilary Swank folks (for the most part) who, for whatever reason, want to peg it as a miss. Quite possibly it will, but no one is offering an educated opinion on it right now. I’m banking on the fact that it is the clear awards hopeful from a studio that has been better at this game than any other for a number of years now.
“I agree that Bright Star definitely has potential now (even though I wouldn’t rate in the top 5 of anything besides screenplay at this point) but why are you predicting Ben Wishaw for actor? The best reviews I read about the film said he was competent at best.”
He’s #5, for crying out loud.
“I think there is an extermely low chance Penelope will be nomiated for Broken Embraces. Foreign films have to be really excellent to get notices and I seriosly doubt the Academy would nominate her for a foreign language film by the same director they nominated her for 3 years ago thats supposedly not as good, when she just won an oscar last year, and has a much batier role in the supporting race for Nine. Thats like 5 things strongly against her favor for Broken Embraces.”
I don’t follow the logic, to be honest. But, as with the rest of this, I think people are thinking WAY too hard about predictions.
“All the reviews from press screenings of Julie & Julia have said it is beyond question that Meryl and Amy are co-leads, have you heard differently?”
If you consider the producers of the film “differently,” then yes. As I’ve been saying for a while, AT THIS POINT, Meryl is supporting. But that could quite easily change if the powers that be see what we all see: that the lead actress race is up for grabs as always.
Hopefully that covers. Again, guys, don’t think too hard about all this. Not yet.
I agree with what Dean says about The Lovely Bones, its release was delayed because it is seen as a major Oscar contender so it should be higher on the chart. Spielberg has said he is convinced that Saoirse Ronan is going to get the Oscar and that was one of the major reasons for pushing the date back
Wait why on IMDB does “Push: A Novel…” is it called “Precious” in the poster. Are they different films or not. I’m confused.
The Tree of Life is definitely not happening in 2009.
Kris, i share your BRIGHT STAR enthusiasm, but i probably won’t adjust it much from my year in advance predictions because i already had it nominated for a lot.
Kris, you have written in the charts, that your #9 in the lead actress category is Natalie Portman for “Antichrist”. I guess you mean Charlotte Gainsbourg, don’t you?
If Two Lovers is eligible, I would consider it a shoo-in for Director, Actor & Original Screenplay. Its 1 film that does scream winner, it will make a very admirable Best Director win, regardless of how the year turns out. But its from an Academy outsider and there’s that IFC On Demand problem.
Bright Star seems like a very sensible prediction since its a Campion piece & got very good reviews in Cannes, it’ll have atleast some merit to it. Properly marketed(or rather sold to the Academy), it has fairly good chances.
Shutter Island might become a default nominee, its Scorsese, they don’t care what genre he makes, but the Academy might ease off coz he’s finally won now.
And Precious seems like THE AMERICAN film of the year. There’s really great excitement about the film. I’ve a feeling its gonna be very popular.
I think Nine will be this year’s Benjamin Button, such huge expectations, such huge hype, only being an absolute piece of shit could prevent it from getting nominated. Well even that did not prevent Button so Nine seems set. Atleast a SAG Ensemble nomination is already in the bag.
Red Wine: I don’t think “Two Lovers” is eligible. But even if it were, I think you’re kidding yourself about its chances. And I say that as someone who quite liked the film. Too small and too low-key by far.
Ooh. Thanks for exposing me to 500 Days of Summer, and Bright Star as a contender. 500 Days of Summer seems to be going for the same audience as Juno, and I adore Juno (and Joseph Gordon-Levitt, especially in Mysterious Skin). Bright Star has a female director and is about Keats (I’m an English nerd.). And though it means little, I’m glad to see Shanghai in a lot of your super-long lists of contenders. Kikuchi/Watanabe possibly being the only doubly nominated Asian actor ever would be exciting.
I think IFC is really bad for Oscar chances. I see the appeal of On Demand but they can atleast have the 1 week qualifying run! They have Antichrist & Looking for Eric both of which are likely to be ineligible too, not that they have a chance in hell.
IFC really ruined Two Lovers & A Christmas Tale’s chances. But yes, Two Lovers is certainly too good for the Academy. That film really stays with you.
Miguel: Should have said “Brothers.” Thanks for the catch.
“its release was delayed because it is seen as a major Oscar contender”
I don’t know that this is necessarily true, truth be told, but I agree the film’s best chances lie with Ronan, who was, after all, a projected nominee in our year-in-advance set.
Alright, I thought you had miswritten the name, not the film.
Not thinking too hard about anything. It’s stupid to do this whole ridiculously-too-early guessing game unless you make it fun and have open conversations about what “buzz” is-whatever that really means.
Oh and one more thing, Patricia Clarkson has gotten raves for her supporting performance in Whatever Works. She really deserves to have an Oscar by now and I think she’ll at least get nomianted again this year.
” We all know mediocre can go a long way in an Oscar campaign …”
Haha, so true.
I’m still very much into Cannes to get excited for Oscar prediction/anticipation. Give me Antichrist, Ribbon, Void…
From someone who’s seen the film, trust me there will be no acting nominations from Public Enemies, especially not Crudup whose role is entirely expository. He’s on screen for all of six minutes and always in an informatory role (Dillinger robbed such and such bank, we need to mobilize such and such an effort, etc…). This will fall away as more candidates become obvious.
Dean: Youre right about Clarkson. Another one I forgot. Next time.
Dignan: Interesting. Thanks.
Sorry Kris – I didn’t look at the charts when I mentioned Waltz. I was looking at the list to the right.
Who knows what will happen. There are always surprises. Bright Star looks like a film that I will really like but that doesn’t always translate into Oscar. As of now, I think that its best shot is for Best Actress.
Nine is not in a good position. It can’t possibly live up to its expectations. I think that Harvey Weinstein is overdoing the hype at this early stage.
Out of your predicted five Best Picture nominees, only one looks vaguely interesting to me at all. Which probably means you are right about them.
Glad to see a bit of Harry Potter love in the tech categories. Have any of those films received a single nomination yet? I haven’t followed the tech awards that closely over the years.
Also I’m supporting an Abbie Cornish nom and win. With Ledger a faint hope of scraping in.
Yes. “Sorcerer’s Stone” received 3 nominations, “Azkaban” 2 and “Goblet” 1.
None of them have won anything, however.
Ben Whishaw will not be nominated…Cornish will be 4th or 5th slot for actress…her performance is too dignified for a win.
From what I have heard, Amelia is mediocre to good, so I think Shutter Island deserves its spot.
I hope that Meryl Streep get a nomination for Julie & Julia in the leading category, and finally a very deserved oscar, at least in the trailer she looks amazing, as always. And if she stays in the lead, it let the free road for an easy winning for Mo’nique in the supporting category.
Thanks for finally updating your predictions.
BTW, the editor for “Bright Star” is Alexandre de Franceschi, while the composer for “The Lovely Bones” will be Brian Eno.
Peter Jackson said it himself in Empire Magazine that once the studio saw a cut of The Lovely Bones they moved its release date from March to December for awards season…and actually said “awards season”….so I DISAGREE about the studio being shy about it being an “Oscar film”
@AOIFE TIERNE….when/where did Spielberg say hes convinced Ronan will get nominated?
The odd thing about this year, and Kris hit the nail on the head about it, is that so far we have had nothing from the cinema releases, and let’s not forget that festival buzz does not necessarily translate to Oscar buzz.
That’s not to say we haven’t seen any films that will pick up noms – Coraline seems like a safe bet, as deos Star Trek with a bucket load of tech nods, but there’s nothing from the big 8 awards.
Can anyone remember a year where there wasn’t at least a screenplay or acting nod from the first half of the year? Makes you wonder which of the June releases will have to step up and fill that gap – Cheri? Moon? Whatever Works? The Hurt Locker? Up?
Am I missing any of the June’s releases?
But folks, how good is The Hurt Locker really? Could that finally be the first Iraq war film garnering award attention?
As for the rest, it’s still way to early and Cannes didn’t give us much to go on either.
I feel like it should be a blogging community goal to get Kathryn Bigelow a Best Director nomination for The Hurt Locker.
I will just throw in one more name that Kris doesn’t have in his charts.
Michael Caine for “Is Anybody There?”. It seems like the kind of small film that can win just one nomination for its beloved veteran lead actor. I have him in my predictions ;-)
Am I the only one who thought “Is Anybody There” was seriously awful? Caine’s performance is nice enough, but the film … ew.
I’m a little confused: the subject matter of “Precious” is more Oscar-accessible than “The Lovely Bones”?
Are you familiar with the source material for both/either? The latter is, by a substantial margin, more “classy,” awards bait, “accessible.”
I think “Precious” may be one of Oprah’s more prescient film picks; the critical consensus is almost the opposite of “Australia” for one, but it has the potential to break many hearts come next February, just because the Academy can.
Yea i’m confused on how Lovely Bones is not even on the Best Picture charts. Do you really think an Iraq/Action thriller like the Green Zone is going to have a chance? Or even a Summer film like Public Enemies…no way. In terms of Avatar, it may have some groundbreaking special effects…but i have serious doubts on whether it’ll have a awesome story, deep characters, or any kind of emotional resonance… screening reviews of Amelia make it sound AWFUl…i mean come’on…Mira Nair…or Peter jackson? Mira nair…or peter jackson?
Not speaking in terms of Oscars, of course, but until Peter Jackson makes a film as good as “Monsoon Wedding,” I’ll always pick Mira Nair ;)
Me too! I was just about to say Mira Nair ain’t no slouch at all. I also liked her Namesake. I think she’s a very talented director, she needs to get more work and some good scripts.
Taking Woodstock didn’t get good reviews, but people were crazy for Imelda Staunton’s performance. I think it is a good bet.
The fact is for both Amelia and The Lovely bones we don’t know anything about either project.
Sure we know the cast, directors, source material and a few stills. That’s just not enough to say whether the film is good or not – adaptations can be bungled, stills can be the best thing about the film and you’d be hard pressed to think of any actors or directors that haven’t made at least one bad film.
All Kris has to go on is the sparse output so far, the buzz that’s filtered through from festivals and general academy taste.
In that respect he is probably right when predicting biopic of important 20th century figure who mysteriously disappeared over adaptation of fantastical novel concerning the grief process. You just have to look at Oscar history to know which one their likely to prefer.
Sorry to rant – but I think we ought to be celebrating what’s good that has already shown up and trying to fiure how that will fit rather than arguing over films noone has seen.
I think some of you guys are a bit too hard on Kris. I mean we really don’t know much of anything at this point. So give him a break, plus it’s more fun to predict now, when award season comes we’ll get tired of hearing about the 10 or 12 movies that will dominate.