First set of winner predictions

Posted by · 3:04 am · November 27th, 2008

Clint Eastwood in Gran TorinoBefore the holiday I thought I’d make my first calls on the year’s Oscar winners.  Bear in mind we don’t even have a list of nominees yet and anything can happen.  I think around this time last year I was predicting “Into the Wild” for across-the-board wins and it only managed two nominations at the end of the day, so, grain of salt and all that.  I just like to go on the record around this time, so here we go:

Best Picture: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Actor: Clint Eastwood, “Gran Torino”
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Original Screenplay: “Milk”
Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Cinematography: “Defiance”
Best Costume Design: “The Duchess”
Best Film Editing: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Music – Original Score: “Defiance”
Best Music – Original Song: “The Wrestler”
Best Sound Editing: “The Dark Knight”
Best Sound Mixing: “The Dark Knight”
Best Visual Effects: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Animated Feature Film: “WALL-E”
Best Documentary Feature: “Man on Wire”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Captain Abu Raed”




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65 responses so far

  • 1 11-28-2008 at 7:03 am

    D. said...

    I was kinda bored so I caluclated the predictions in above posts into percentages. It’s interesting:

    Best Picture (from 31 predictions):
    — The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 38,7%
    — Milk – 35,5%
    — Slumdog Millionaire – 9,6%
    — The Dark Knight – 6,5%
    — Revolutionary Road – 6,5 %
    — The Reader – 3,2%

    Best Achievment in Direction (31):
    — D. Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 51,6%
    — D. Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire – 19,4%
    — G. Van Sant, Milk – 16,1%
    — C. Nolan, The Dark Knight – 6,5%
    — S. Mendes, Revolutionary Road – 3,2 %
    — S. Daldry, The Reader – 3,2%

    Best Actor in a Leading Role (31):
    — S. Penn, Milk – 38,7%
    — L. DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road – 29%
    — M. Rourke, The Wrestler – 19,4%
    — C. Eastwood, Gran Torino – 12,9%

    Best Actress in a Leading Role (31):
    — K. Winslet, Revolutionary Road – 51,6%
    — C. Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 22,6%
    — M. Streep, Doubt – 19,4%
    — K. Winslet, The Reader – 3,2%
    — K. Scott Thomas – 3,2 %

    Best Actor in a Supporting Role (32):
    — H. Ledger, The Dark Knight – 93,8%
    — M. Shannon, Revolutionary Road – 6,2%

    Best Actress in a Supporting Role (32):
    — P. Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona – 40,6%
    — V. Davis, Doubt – 25%
    — T. P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 15,6%
    — K. Winslet, The Reader – 6,3%
    — D. Winger, Rachel Getting Married – 3,1 %
    — R. DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married – 3,1 %
    — M. Tomei, The Wrestler – 3,1 %
    — V. Farmiga, Nothing But the Truth – 3,1 %

    Best Adapted Screenplay (29):
    — Slumdog Millionaire – 51,7%
    — The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 27,6%
    — Revolutionary Road – 17,2%
    — The Reader – 3,4%

    Best Original Screenplay (29):
    — Milk – 89,7%
    — Rachel Getting Married – 10,3%

    Best Art Direction (22):
    — The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 90,9%
    — The Dark Knight – 4,6%
    — Australia – 4,6%

    Best Cinematography (22):
    — The Dark Knight – 36,4%
    — The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 31,8%
    — Australia – 13,6%
    — Defiance – 9%
    — Slumdog Millionaire – 4,6%
    — Revolutionary Road – 4,6%

    Best Costume Design (22):
    — The Dutchess – 63,6%
    — The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 18,2%
    — Milk – 4,6%
    — The Other Boleyn Girl – 4,6%
    — Sex and the City – 4,6%
    — Revolutionary Road – 4,6%

    Best Editing (24):
    — Slumdog Millionaire – 45,8%
    — The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 16,7%
    — Milk – 16,7%
    — The Dark Knight – 16,7%
    — Revolutionary Road – 4,2%

    Best Makeup (21):
    — The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 90,4%
    — Synechdoche, New York – 9,6%

    Best Original Score (22):
    — The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 45,5%
    — Revolutionary Road – 22,3%
    — WALL-E – 13,7%
    — Defiance – 4,6%
    — Australia – 4,6%
    — Doubt – 4,6%
    — The Reader – 4,6%

    Best Original Song (22):
    — “Down to Earth”, WALL-E – 45,5%
    — “Then You’ve Seen Me”, The Wrestler – 36,4%
    — “Little People”, Synechdoche, New York – 4,6%
    — “All Dressed in Love”, Sex and the City – 4,6%

    Best Sound Editing (22):
    — The Dark Knight – 54,5%
    — WALL-E – 45,5%

    Best Sound Mixing (22):
    — The Dark Knight – 63,6%
    — WALL-E – 27,3%
    — Australia – 4,6%
    — Mamma Mia! – 4,6%

    Best Visual Effects (22):
    — The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 81,8%
    — Iron Man – 18,2%

    Best Animated Feature (19):
    — WALL-E – 100%

    Best Foreign Feature (17):
    — Gommorah – 58,8%
    — The Class – 23,5%
    — Captain Abu Raed – 11,8%
    — The Karamazovs – 5,9%

    Best Documentary Feature (14):
    — Man on Wire – 78,6%
    — Trouble the Water – 14,3%
    — Standard Operating Procedure – 7,1%

  • 2 11-28-2008 at 10:04 am

    Brian said...

    First of all, the direction in Slumdog Millionaire was awful. Just awful. Those cheap camera moves, the slow motion/speed-up effects – so cheap and badly done. Thge camera work was awful and had no elegance or style. Terribly directed. I don’t know how you could predict a win for this and a director win for this film. Story was great. Direction was piss poor. And not giving best cinematography to Wally Pfister is a crime. His work on Dark Knight should be awared the Oscar. No question!

  • 3 11-28-2008 at 10:33 am

    Melanie said...

    Best Picture: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    Best Director: David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
    Best Actress: Kristin Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long
    Best Supp. Actor: Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
    Best Supp. Actress: Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona

  • 4 11-28-2008 at 11:22 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    I figured sooner or later the annual Fox Searchlight backlash would show its face…

  • 5 11-28-2008 at 3:04 pm

    Aaron said...

    Predicting winners before nominees… damn, this is my kind of site!

    Picture: Milk (biopic + raves + important topic + Brokeback snub = win win win)

    Director: Gus Van Sant – Milk (^^^)

    Actor: Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler (comeback + heartfelt role + Penn already has an Oscar. DiCaprio is a serious spoiler, though)

    Actress: Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road (Meryl being divisive + her crazy ass snub for Sunshine + completely overdue + double nominees usual get one award :D)

    Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight (c’mon, this and WALL*E are the only sure non-techs of the night)

    Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona (a role that pops + serious tears + steals the entire movie + Davis’ lack of scenes)

    Original Screenplay: Milk (the competition is hilariously weak + it’s actually a phenomenal screenplay)

    Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire (the “Juno” award… which it deserves)

    Animated Film: WALL*E (I feel bad for the others)

    Art Direction: Benjamin Button (because they hate Australia and Benny needs something. Grrr)

    Cinematography: The Dark Knight (everyone has seen it + overtly impressive + default winner + Australia hate)

    Costume Design: Australia (HAS to be. And they don’t mind going outside the “loved list.” Marie Antoinette/Elizabeth award)

    Film Editing: The Dark Knight (Slumdog is a potential spoiler)

    Makeup: Benjamin Button (Locked if rendered eligible despite Synecdoche’s brilliance)

    Original Score: WALL*E (lack of dialogue makes the score pop so much. Near lock)

    Original Song: The Wrestler (THE BOSS)

    Sound Editing: Dark Knight (default choice)

    Sound Mixing: WALL*E (because it’s so good)

    Visual Effects: Benjamin Button (100% locked)

  • 6 11-28-2008 at 11:25 pm

    PJ said...

    Best Picture: “Milk”
    Best Director: Gus Van Sant, “Milk”
    Best Actor: Sean Penn, “Milk”
    Best Actress: Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
    Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
    Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, “Doubt”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Original Screenplay: “Milk”
    Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Cinematography: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Costume Design: “Milk”
    Best Film Editing: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Music – Original Score: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Music – Original Song: “WALL-E”
    Best Sound Editing: “WALL-E”
    Best Sound Mixing: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Visual Effects: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “WALL-E”
    Best Documentary Feature: “Man on Wire”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “The Class”

  • 7 11-29-2008 at 7:40 am

    Jack said...

    Best Picture: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Actor: Clint Eastwood, “Gran Torino”
    Best Actress: Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”
    Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
    Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, “Doubt”
    Best Original Screenplay: “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire” (I also want to agree with you, Kris, that it was fantastically written)
    Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Cinematography: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Costumes: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Editing: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Original Score: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Original Song: “The Wrestler”
    Best Sound Editing: “WALL-E”
    Best Sound Mixing: “WALL-E”

    This is a random question, but does anyone know if “Slumdong Millionaire”‘s score was original enough to be eligible? It definately deserves it.

  • 8 11-29-2008 at 12:23 pm

    Samalia said...

    Best Picture: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Director: David Fincher
    Best Actor: Sean Penn
    Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
    Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Original Screenplay: “Milk”
    Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Cinematography: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Costume Design: The Duchess
    Best Film Editing: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Original Score: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Original Song: “WALL-E”
    Best Sound Editing: “WALL-E”
    Best Sound Mixing: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Visual Effects: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “WALL-E”
    Best Documentary Feature: “Man on Wire”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “The Class”

  • 9 11-29-2008 at 1:09 pm

    a said...

    Best Picture: “Milk”
    Best Director: Danny Boyle
    Best Actor: Sean Penn
    Best Actress: Meryl Streep
    Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
    Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Original Screenplay: “Milk”
    Best Art Direction: “Revolutionary Road”
    Best Cinematography: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Costume Design: “Revolutionary Road”
    Best Film Editing: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Original Score: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Original Song: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Sound Editing: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Sound Mixing: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Visual Effects: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “WALL-E”
    Best Documentary Feature: “Man on Wire”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “The Class”

  • 10 12-01-2008 at 6:05 am

    Bart said...

    Best Picture: “The Reader”
    Best Director: Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”
    Best Actor: Frank Langella, “Frost / Nixon”
    Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
    Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
    Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Reader”
    Best Original Screenplay: “Wall-E”
    Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Cinematography: “Revolutionary Road”
    Best Costume Design: “The Duchess”
    Best Film Editing: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Original Score: “The Reader”
    Best Original Song: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Sound Editing: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Sound Mixing: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Visual Effects: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Wall-E”
    Best Documentary Feature: “Man on Wire”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “The Class”

  • 11 12-24-2008 at 11:05 am

    Edgardo said...

    Here it is, my fearless forecast

    Best Picture: MILK
    Directing: Gus van Sant- MILK”
    Lead Actor: Sean Penn-MILK
    Lead Actress: Meryl Streep -Doubt (Give it to her, its gonna be her 15th noms already)
    Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
    Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet- The Reader
    Original Screenplay: “Milk”

  • 12 12-27-2008 at 8:08 am

    jose said...

    Best Picture: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, “The wrestler”
    Best Actress: Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Gueting Married”
    Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
    Best Supporting Actress: Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Original Screenplay: “The Wrestler”
    Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Cinematography: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Costume Design: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Film Editing: “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Best Makeup: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Best Music – Original Score: “Defiance”
    Best Music – Original Song: “The Wrestler”
    Best Sound Editing: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Sound Mixing: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Visual Effects: “The Dark Knight”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “WALL-E”
    Best Documentary Feature: “Man on Wire”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “Gomorrah”