Actually no, I don’t agree with him. I’ll eat my hat if it happens. And no matter how small the number of “better” films than “The Dark Knight” will be, that doesn’t equate to the Academy’s choices in any universe I’m aware of.
And Nathaniel does this from time to time. He settles on a populist film and comes up with valid reasons for its Best Picture potential. But it rarely pans out, if ever.
I’m all for the sport of it, though. The best shot the film has for major Oscar success, though, is Nolan, and maybe screenplay. That’s it (beyond Heath, of course).
Joseph Number 1
Everyone’s gonna look like such a fool when the film’s only nomination come Oscar time is for Best Supporting Actor. Chances for anything else = zilch.
Yeah… what Joseph #1 said. People will write anything for attention these days. Kris, I agree the idea of TDK being nommed for Best Picture is as laughable as those Lethal Weapon 2 For Your Consideration ads we stumbled upon once upon a time.
Best Supporting Actor
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Cinematography
Each of them virtually assured.
Best Makeup
Best Film Editing
Best Visual Effects
Each of them quite possible.
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Stranger things have happened.
No one’s going to look foolish for simply giving a critically acclaimed blockbuster the benefit of the doubt…but I do draw the line at Best Picture talk, personally.
Oscar loves gigantic box office Kris. The top 9 were all nominated for best picture! And about half of the top 30 were. Assuming TDK will fall somewhere in the 30-20 range with B.O. projections currenty at about $500 M that gives it very good odds considering that most on the list that didn’t get best pic nods were children’s movies or didn’t receive great reviews- both of which do not classify TDK.
Oscar loves EVENT movies such as TDK even if they aren’t the typical AMPAS style e.g The Exorcist, E.T., Star Wars, The Sixth Sense, etc.
So will you please post a video of you eating your hat in January should it come true? :)
Joseph Number 1
I just have pretty major problems thinking it’s going to get Sound nominations… I mean if “Batman Begins” couldn’t, I’m not sure this one can either. It’s definitely possible though.
Cinematography is something I’ve argued over quite a lot since seeing the movie, and I stand by my original view that it’s a letdown in this department. It doesn’t come close to the beautifully rich, tonal work on “Begins,” and there’s really very little distinction to the camera work here. I don’t feel it even would deserve a nod now, no less by Oscar season when all the real contenders come out. Last year it wouldn’t even deserve a spot in the Top 10.
I’ve been forecasting $500 million myself. But even with those numbers, I don’t see a Best Pic nod coming. Sorry. Personally, I think it’s all a heavy dose of wishful thinking and rampant justification.
Obviously I’m happy to be wrong, but I doubt I will be. I’ll get the camera ready just in case.
This film was far more set-piece-loaded than “Begins,” Joseph. Oscar nominated sound editor Richard King is on board this time as well. That’s key for a branch that loves the in-crowd.
I think you’re dead wrong on cinematography. You might think it’s a let down, but there’s no way the lensers aren’t going to show respect for the IMAX legwork that went into the picture. There’s more to cinematography than lighting and composition.
Personally I haven’t thought either film all that worthy of an Oscar nod. Though I do like the work on “The Dark Knight” better than “Begins.” Nothing Pfister has done touches “The Prestige” for sheer jaw-dropping quality, though.
Joseph Number 1
I agree on that last part, although I was fine with the nod for “Begins,” even if it meant inexplicably left off Kaminski’s (brilliant) work on “Munich.”
I guess I just have trouble seeing “The Dark Knight” being nominated – at this point, anyway – because of it being so early. Once we get to the thick of Oscar season there will be more contenders, and I really don’t see 5 films NOT trumping it in cinematography. It’s certainly above-average work, especially for a summer blockbuster, but I just wasn’t all that impressed and certainly wouldn’t call it awards worthy.
The voting branch is another case entirely, and I see your point.
I can see where you’re coming from, but I agree with Roeper: if Chicago and LOTR3 can win, TDK can. I’m judging how GOOD it is. It’s the best film I’ve seen this year, and if the Academy has any sense, they will nominate it, at least.
Yes, it’s “set-piece-loaded”, but so was LOTR3. I’m not trying to change your viewpoint, Kris. I’m just saying that after Raiders of the Lost Ark and The Fugitive both being nominated, The Dark Knight would be no surprise. The movie is absolutely brilliant, dramatically satisfying, darkly humorous, thematically rich and narratively cohesive, and contains a superb ensemble cast. You rarely, if ever, see that with pieces of “pop entertainment”. The Academy saw it with Raiders and Fugitive (and obviously LOTR3).
(Although, for the record, I think I agree with you about the cinematography work on “Prestige”. Great film, even better look.)
Joseph Number 1
All three “Lord of the Rings” films were nominated for Best Picture, among a SLEW of other nominations. They had pedigree, they were epics, and they were enchanting. Perhaps the time for that is over, but I still find it kind of ridiculous comparing “The Dark Knight” to three “Lord of the Rings” films.
And “Chicago?” Not sure I get that one at all. I think the Academy’s better suited to musicals than comic book superheroes.
I really hope they can pull it off but I sincerely doubt it. A timely dvd-release would ofcourse help, but I agree with the notion that TDK and Wall-E will cancel each other out.
Sawyer
I just don’t see it either. If I had to guess, I’d look at a film like The Matrix or The Bourne Ultimatum as a template to what we can expect for The Dark Knight – several tech noms and wins, plus the nom for Ledger. The Academy has ways of showing they love a genre movie without actually giving it a BP nom.
Silencio
I’m personally pulling for both WALL-E and TDK to make the top 5. What a world it would be then.
Ivan
I think the Guilds will support a lot TDK, actually I can expect a nomination from the PGA, DGA and WGA with sure bets in ASC, ACE, CAS , in Oscar territory at this point the possibilities look at
Supporting Actor
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Film Edting
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Make Up
7 nominations, maybe the tally with no Best Pic nom like Dreamgirls
It’s the same as the hysteria a couple of weeks ago over the supposed Best Picture nomination for WALL-E. If anything (and I don’t think either have a shot anyway), two atypical, praised-to-the-rafters populist summer blockbusters would likely cancel each other out.
Plus, I could be way off, but I’m guessing Benjamin Button will take a hefty chunk of the fanboy vote that would go for The Dark Knight.
Comments
20 responses to “Stop the insanity!”
I don’t know, Kris. They’ve got solid points, and the movie is good enough…it could get nominated.
I can’t go there. Can’t. I love Nat for doing it and fully respect every point he raises.
I just…can’t do it.
You can’t do it, Kris, because you don’t agree with him?
Look, by the end of the year, if there’s five “better” films than The Dark Knight then great. If not, well…the plot thickens!
Actually no, I don’t agree with him. I’ll eat my hat if it happens. And no matter how small the number of “better” films than “The Dark Knight” will be, that doesn’t equate to the Academy’s choices in any universe I’m aware of.
And Nathaniel does this from time to time. He settles on a populist film and comes up with valid reasons for its Best Picture potential. But it rarely pans out, if ever.
I’m all for the sport of it, though. The best shot the film has for major Oscar success, though, is Nolan, and maybe screenplay. That’s it (beyond Heath, of course).
Everyone’s gonna look like such a fool when the film’s only nomination come Oscar time is for Best Supporting Actor. Chances for anything else = zilch.
Yeah… what Joseph #1 said. People will write anything for attention these days. Kris, I agree the idea of TDK being nommed for Best Picture is as laughable as those Lethal Weapon 2 For Your Consideration ads we stumbled upon once upon a time.
Best Supporting Actor
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Cinematography
Each of them virtually assured.
Best Makeup
Best Film Editing
Best Visual Effects
Each of them quite possible.
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Stranger things have happened.
No one’s going to look foolish for simply giving a critically acclaimed blockbuster the benefit of the doubt…but I do draw the line at Best Picture talk, personally.
http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm
Oscar loves gigantic box office Kris. The top 9 were all nominated for best picture! And about half of the top 30 were. Assuming TDK will fall somewhere in the 30-20 range with B.O. projections currenty at about $500 M that gives it very good odds considering that most on the list that didn’t get best pic nods were children’s movies or didn’t receive great reviews- both of which do not classify TDK.
Oscar loves EVENT movies such as TDK even if they aren’t the typical AMPAS style e.g The Exorcist, E.T., Star Wars, The Sixth Sense, etc.
So will you please post a video of you eating your hat in January should it come true? :)
I just have pretty major problems thinking it’s going to get Sound nominations… I mean if “Batman Begins” couldn’t, I’m not sure this one can either. It’s definitely possible though.
Cinematography is something I’ve argued over quite a lot since seeing the movie, and I stand by my original view that it’s a letdown in this department. It doesn’t come close to the beautifully rich, tonal work on “Begins,” and there’s really very little distinction to the camera work here. I don’t feel it even would deserve a nod now, no less by Oscar season when all the real contenders come out. Last year it wouldn’t even deserve a spot in the Top 10.
Opinions of course.
I’ve been forecasting $500 million myself. But even with those numbers, I don’t see a Best Pic nod coming. Sorry. Personally, I think it’s all a heavy dose of wishful thinking and rampant justification.
Obviously I’m happy to be wrong, but I doubt I will be. I’ll get the camera ready just in case.
This film was far more set-piece-loaded than “Begins,” Joseph. Oscar nominated sound editor Richard King is on board this time as well. That’s key for a branch that loves the in-crowd.
I think you’re dead wrong on cinematography. You might think it’s a let down, but there’s no way the lensers aren’t going to show respect for the IMAX legwork that went into the picture. There’s more to cinematography than lighting and composition.
Personally I haven’t thought either film all that worthy of an Oscar nod. Though I do like the work on “The Dark Knight” better than “Begins.” Nothing Pfister has done touches “The Prestige” for sheer jaw-dropping quality, though.
I agree on that last part, although I was fine with the nod for “Begins,” even if it meant inexplicably left off Kaminski’s (brilliant) work on “Munich.”
I guess I just have trouble seeing “The Dark Knight” being nominated – at this point, anyway – because of it being so early. Once we get to the thick of Oscar season there will be more contenders, and I really don’t see 5 films NOT trumping it in cinematography. It’s certainly above-average work, especially for a summer blockbuster, but I just wasn’t all that impressed and certainly wouldn’t call it awards worthy.
The voting branch is another case entirely, and I see your point.
I can see where you’re coming from, but I agree with Roeper: if Chicago and LOTR3 can win, TDK can. I’m judging how GOOD it is. It’s the best film I’ve seen this year, and if the Academy has any sense, they will nominate it, at least.
Yes, it’s “set-piece-loaded”, but so was LOTR3. I’m not trying to change your viewpoint, Kris. I’m just saying that after Raiders of the Lost Ark and The Fugitive both being nominated, The Dark Knight would be no surprise. The movie is absolutely brilliant, dramatically satisfying, darkly humorous, thematically rich and narratively cohesive, and contains a superb ensemble cast. You rarely, if ever, see that with pieces of “pop entertainment”. The Academy saw it with Raiders and Fugitive (and obviously LOTR3).
(Although, for the record, I think I agree with you about the cinematography work on “Prestige”. Great film, even better look.)
All three “Lord of the Rings” films were nominated for Best Picture, among a SLEW of other nominations. They had pedigree, they were epics, and they were enchanting. Perhaps the time for that is over, but I still find it kind of ridiculous comparing “The Dark Knight” to three “Lord of the Rings” films.
And “Chicago?” Not sure I get that one at all. I think the Academy’s better suited to musicals than comic book superheroes.
I really hope they can pull it off but I sincerely doubt it. A timely dvd-release would ofcourse help, but I agree with the notion that TDK and Wall-E will cancel each other out.
I just don’t see it either. If I had to guess, I’d look at a film like The Matrix or The Bourne Ultimatum as a template to what we can expect for The Dark Knight – several tech noms and wins, plus the nom for Ledger. The Academy has ways of showing they love a genre movie without actually giving it a BP nom.
I’m personally pulling for both WALL-E and TDK to make the top 5. What a world it would be then.
I think the Guilds will support a lot TDK, actually I can expect a nomination from the PGA, DGA and WGA with sure bets in ASC, ACE, CAS , in Oscar territory at this point the possibilities look at
Supporting Actor
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Film Edting
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Make Up
7 nominations, maybe the tally with no Best Pic nom like Dreamgirls
Not. Going. To. Happen.
It’s the same as the hysteria a couple of weeks ago over the supposed Best Picture nomination for WALL-E. If anything (and I don’t think either have a shot anyway), two atypical, praised-to-the-rafters populist summer blockbusters would likely cancel each other out.
Plus, I could be way off, but I’m guessing Benjamin Button will take a hefty chunk of the fanboy vote that would go for The Dark Knight.
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