It often seems that when there isn’t an obvious, populist pick in the Academy’s documentary feature category (such as “Bowling for Columbine,” “March of the Penguins” or “An Inconvenient Truth”), the field is rife for an upset. Last year a number of awards watchers were sure that either “No End in Sight” or “Sicko” would walk away the winner, while maybe five of us new the power of “Taxi to the Dark Side” would prevail. “Born Into Brothels” caught a few by surprise in a year that a great many thought would see “Super Size Me” take the gold.
“Murder on a Sunday Morning” over “Children Underground,” “One Day in September” over “Buena Vista Social Club,” it seems there is always something of a surprise waiting to happen here, and I think it’s because the groupthink always takes such a vigorous hold in a category with little precursor clues as to what the actual film industry thinks of the field.
This year, it’s a foregone conclusion that the critically acclaimed “Man on Wire” will win the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature. The film has nearly swept the circuit. Only “Trouble the Water” (also nominated) and Guy Maddin’s “My Winnipeg” have popped up with this critics organization or that. But I submit that, not only is “Man on Wire” quite vulnerable, but it may be the least likely of the nominated docs to win the Oscar in a little less than two weeks’ time.
Whenever an awards shortlist is announced, people will inevitably spend as much time, if not more, pondering its omissions as they will its inclusions. And so it has been this week, in the wake of the Academy’s announcement of the 15 titles