*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.
Matt Damon and Paul Greengrass return to the screen this week with their third collaboration and first outside of the Jason Bourne series. That particular franchise has done wonders for the careers of both men, particularly Greengrass, who won an Oscar nomination for “United 93,” but didn’t exactly see the film break the bank. Damon too, was just recognized by the Academy but had one of his leanest box office years on record with the stuttering “The Informant!” and “Invictus.”
So here they stand with “Green Zone,” a stylistic twin to their bread and butter series. Universal is doing everything they possibly can to pretend this is just another Bourne film and has absolutely nothing to do with Iraq. “The Bourne Supremacy” debuted with $64.4 million en route to a $216.0 million finish. “The Bourne Ultimatum” did even better with a $76.6 million start and $251.6 million total. Compare that to the $14.7 million of “The Hurt Locker.” The best the Iraq War has ever done at the box office is the $52.6 million of “The Kingdom.” The only thing more poisonous at the box office than Iraq is Eddie Murphy. Hey-Oh! I think we’re looking at a subdued $18 million debut here.
“She’s Out of My League” takes the subtext of every Judd Apatow produced comedy and makes it the whole plot. Ugly funny dude lands a boring hot chick and hopefully we all get a couple chuckles out of it. This is obviously trying to be for Jay Baruchel what “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” was for Jason Segal but I’m afraid that film’s $18.8 million debut will be out its league. Double digits will be a good result at this point so I’m saying $10 million.
Robert Pattinson leaps out of the “Twilight” franchise and into a range-testing drama with, from what I’ve heard, an embarrassing twist ending. The trailers for “Remember Me” have everything except the “From the author of ‘The Notebook’” tag and Pattinson haters can get ready to pounce because this one is going to be bringing up the rear of the debuting films with $7 million or so.
Finally, Fox Searchlight takes a break from winning Oscars to release “Our Family Wedding.” You know, the film where Forest Whitaker takes a break from winning Oscars to get humped by a goat on Viagra. The fact is, African American audiences and Hispanic audiences are two demographics desperately underserved at the multiplex and will show up in droves. Even with a low screen count of 1,605, I think this one will walk away with $12 million or so.
What are you guys seeing this week? Is “Green Zone” joining “Shutter Island” on any Oscar category shortlist?
Comments
18 responses to “FRIDAY FORECAST: Lean ‘Zone’”
For what’s it worth The Kingdom has nothing to do with Iraq – it’s set in Saudi Arabia (hence the title).
I’m planning on seeing Green Zone tonight, here’s hoping it is close to as good as the Bourne movies.
I have no problem with your projections this week, wouldn’t be surprised if Remember Me opens a bit bigger though (like 12 mil). It does have the new Twilight trailer attached to it which has been a big selling point and it has a smattering of good reviews (despite what sure sounds like a vile, manipulative and repulsive ending).
Jarhead made more than the Kingdom. And it opened to 27 million. I expect Green Zone to match or surpass that. Many Iraq films just suffered from a lack of being very good.
On an unrelated subject, every time I hear someone say the name “Green Zone” I have to think about David Schwimmer’s “Greenzo” character from 30 Rock. It’s very annoying.
I quite liked “Remember Me,” even though the ending is questionable. Robert Pattinson deserves accolades that will probably never come. He’s magnetic.
I kind of hated both “Green Zone” and “She’s Out of My League.” The former is completely unremarkable within its genre, and the latter is bogged down in juvenile humor that Judd Apatow cannot lay claim to.
And I can tell all of you that “Our Family Wedding” will join “Cop Out” as the year’s worst picture come the end of the year. It’s rancid and unbelievably awful.
I really liked Green Zone.
Like someone already mentioned, The Kingdom is set in Saudi Arabia and has nothing to do with Iraq.
Chad, you should fix that if you want to spare yourself some embarrassment.
For me, ‘The Kingdom’ is still the most entertaining, high octane war film I’ve seen in a long time. I know it’s not generally well-received. But that’s how I saw it.
I dont care much for Greengrass. Hes not bad I just find him…..good.
Really loved Green Zone no as tense as Hurt Locker but I like it better. I think it will do pretty well too. I went to a 3pm screening on a Friday and it was packed.
None of these films should unseat “The Spy Next Door”‘s status as next year’s Best Picture frontrunner. I would like to see “Green Zone”. The thing is, I’m not a fan of the Greengrass “let me shake the camera until you start throwing up and have absolutely no idea what’s going on” style. Is “Green Zone” like that?
Shutter Island crossed $100 mio so go Leo! I don`t care what other actors do this year but Leo is going to rock the boxoffice and his reviews for SI are terrific. Now bring on Inception.
Alice In Wonderland held very well all things considered.
Green Zone shows Damon can`t open a non-Bourne movie even when it looks like a Bourne knock-off. Like him still. Great actor.
Remember Me,eh. I guess it didn`t disappoint cause it tracked for about as much as it`s going to make this weekend. Shows that Edward and Patz are two different things for Twi-tards. Summit is grooming Patz as their go-to guy for teen crowd cash grab and I guess their investment is safe as long as they cast him in cheapos. Now, if they get stupid and go Orlando Bloom with him, BOOOOOOOOOOOOOM, poof, where`s Summit?
Just saw Green zone i don’t think it will be on any oscar short list Matt Damon had a good performance The Kingdom was a better made movie than Greenzone
Sorry no Sunday column yet. I’m swamped at SXSW and may not get to it. Hoping to have Tuesday’s Life Without Oscar though and thanks for bearing with me
Green Zone was just okay. It was too talk-y for its sake. GZ was just like Shutter Island with talkiness, short of a poster board and Will Shortz.
Damnit Chad. We’re not paying you for nothing!
Gosh, that awful movie Shutter Island just keeps making money. What’s up with that? Seriously, though, it does have a reasonably hardcore following and I know some folks who’ve seen it multiple times and keep going. But yay!!
Green Zone — yada yada.
Ghost Writer — needs more love for sure! Excellent little thriller.
Alice in Blunderland — yada yada.
Can’t wait for KICK-ASS!!!!!
REMEMBER ME is one of the best pictures I’ve seen — very well written and Robert Pattinson is such a great actor — can’t really tell from twilight. Worth watching. Please don’t spoil the ending….
Yeah, “Remember Me” is a masterpiece, indeed. Really was NOT expecting that ending.
Everyone NEEDS to see it. Yes, even you, Chad.
Joel — it kinda sounds like you are being sarcastic, but not sure. Remember me is better than I ever expected it to be. She’s out of my league is simply fantastic. Wish I could say the same for the bounty hunter which is just brought down by one of the worst scripts ever — can’t fault the likeable stars or the premise.