Well, we got ourselves a surprise or two, after all. If you predicted Hilary Swank’s out-of-nowhere Best Actress nomination for “Conviction,” go out and buy yourself a congratulatory drink. (While you’re at the bar, buy a commiserative one for Nathaniel Rogers too.)
I doubt the nomination will launch her into the Academy’s five (unless story-mongers really are desperate to see another round in the Swank vs. Bening grudge match), but it does demonstrate how up for grabs that fifth slot is. Lesley Manville and Michelle Williams, the ball is still in your court.
Nothing on the list matches that nomination for sheer unexpectedness, but I suspect a fair few people didn’t see “Winter’s Bone” star John Hawkes coming in the Best Supporting Actor category — much less at the expense of the season’s nominal frontrunner, “The Social Network.” I wrote in my predictions last night that I wasn’t sure how fully SAG would warm to the film’s young, non-insider cast: while I predicted a snub for Jesse Eisenberg, it was actually Andrew Garfield who got the shaft.
(He’s in distinguished company, at least: joining him on the sidelines are Jacki Weaver, Ryan Gosling and his aforementioned “Blue Valentine” co-star, all of whom I can easily imagine overcoming this roadblock a month from now.)
Though Mark Wahlberg didn’t repeat his Golden Globe coup from earlier this week, “The Fighter” still lived up to its reputation as the season’s potential late-breaking spoiler, joining “The King’s Speech” in the top spot with four nominations. Just behind, with three, are “The Kids Are All Right” — rallying nicely after a couple of early misses on the precursor trailer — and “Black Swan.” Darren Aronofsky’s film just goes from strength to strength: with nods from the BFCA, the Globes and now SAG, one-time longshot Mila Kunis is looking a mighty threat for an Oscar spot. Nice.
All four of those titles landed in SAG’s ostensible Best Picture category, Best Ensemble, with “The Social Network,” of course, rounding out the list. I see a number of our readers already fussing over “Inception”‘s absence from the list (well, save for Best Stunt Ensemble), to which I can only say that a large ensemble doesn’t count for much when the film isn’t much of actor’s piece.
Check out the full list of film nominees at The Circuit.
[Photo: Fox Searchlight Pictures]
Comments
161 responses to “‘Fighter’ and ‘King’s Speech’ lead SAG nominations”
Most of the nominations fall in line, but there are some surprises.
Yes for John Hawkes and Mila Kunis!
Looks that Manville’s odds are close to nil.
Hilary Swank is the true spoiler. Blue Valentine suffered a setback, but Gosling and Williams are not out yet.
Jacki Weaver and Andrew Garfield start to look vulnerable, but I expect them to get Oscar nominations.
Lot of love for Duvall, maybe that pushed Wahlberg out.
Of course they aren’t starfuckers. I don’t think anyone said they were. This is generally where the snubbed-by-HFPA indie performances have a resurgence: Amy Adams, Ryan Gosling, Melissa Leo, Richard Jenkins, Jeremy Renner, etc…..
Guy:
I know, but it could be one of those silly unwritten rules award shows have, like that one about a director “not being able” to win Best Director after having it won recently.
Mila! I’m genuinely surprised she’s picking up steam. Portman is taking her along with her, this can’t be bad news for Portman’s chances.
I gotta say, I love the fact that the Supporting Actress race is still so completely wide open in terms of who might actually win it. Leo and Weaver have gotten the most critics awards (I think), but many find Adams to be better than Leo, and many think of Steinfeld as being the best of the year. THEN you’ve got the major underdog Mila Kunis who has now come from nearly nowhere to grab nominations from all three major nominations. So she can’t be discounted either, especially not considering how the Academy loves its starlets.
In fact, I can truthfully see any of them taking home the Oscar, and I can’t remember the last time I could say that in mid-December. The race will surely clear up once winners are announced and so on, but for now I’m just gonna relish the fact that it really could go either which way.
I’ve seen three of the Best Actress nominees, and I can confidently say that I think Hilary Swank is better than Annette Bening and Jennifer Lawrence. There, I said it. And is anyone else beginning to think that if one movie will upset “The Social Network”, it’ll be “Black Swan”? This Mila Kunis thing is making me think that people love it a lot more than we were led to believe.
I highly doubt that Steinfeld takes Supporting Actor at the Oscars.
Anywho, if these nominations boosted anyone, it was Mila Kunis. A set back for Weaver, a slight bump for Garfield, but I think Garfield will still get in. Weaver, I’m not so sure…
It’s such a great year for actresses. Assuming Bening/Portman/Kidman/Lawrence are locked, PLEASE Academy nominate Michelle Williams instead of Berry or Swank or some other surprise. And then PLEASE nominate LESLEY MANVILLE in supporting.
*Supporting Actress
Whatever, James D., whoever the 9u7b3qg you are. The Globes didn’t go for True Grit because they finally stopped rubberstamping everything The Coens have done. Jeff Bridges is no John Wayne and Callie Steinfeld is no Kim Darby.
Lmfao. Once again, when did I rag on about True Grit above? Don’t see how what you said has any relation to any of my comments.
There is obviously a ton of support for Black Swan. I hope this leads to Aronofsky’s first nod.
The True Grit stuff was actually a reply to #47. And Mariska Hargitay, again? TV nominees are even worse.
For the record, I’ve heard that Steinfeld is MUCH better than Kim Darby, so “Steinfeld is no Kim Darby” should be taken as a compliment.
Ugh, don’t mention Mariska Hargitay. Still pissed she wasted space at the Emmys in a slot that clearly should have gone to Katey Sagal. At least Sagal got a Globe nod this year–there’s one of the few things they did right.
Are people seriously thinking Inception is out of the BP 10 because it didn’t get a SAG nom?
LOL
@ Joe7827: You’re kidding with that “confidently,” right? Having seen all five nominees (and a number of other performances this year), I would give Swank her props, but there’s no way that I agree with the Guild ranking her work among the top five performances of the year. I might (MIGHT) agree with you about Bening (MIGHT), but definitely not about Lawrence.
Jeez – everyone is snubbing Lesley Manville! I see another Mike Leigh actress oscar snub coming. First Sally Hawkins and now Manville. At least with Hawkins all the critics got it right.
Here’s my philosophy. Diane Kruger showed up out of nowhere with her SAG nomination for Inglourious Basterds. A lot of people, including me, put her in my Oscar predictions. Inglourious Basterds was A LOT better received than Conviction, and Hilary Swank, as beloved as she is, already has two freaking Oscars. If Kruger can’t ride the wave and get a nomination, I highly doubt Swank can get in with her Lifetime reject of a movie.
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Nice philosophy, Joey. Hope you’re right.
I say this: liking Swank. She’s my win for 2004. But it’s like – come on, already. She’s not allll that.
I have to say that seeing Black Swan getting that much love is amazing. I’ve not seen the movie, but it’s right now my most anticipated one (of this year; 2011: Tree of Life). And I would be so happy to see a movie that shocked and amazed me more than TSN.
Happy to see that everyone is loving BS even its suposed controversial issues.
I agree. So pleasantly surprised by the widespread Black Swan appreciation.
The Black Swan and The Fighter are peaking for nominations in lots of areas; for the win – hard to say, doubtful.
Paul: confident, no joke. I didn’t say that it was among the top five performances of the year (there’s many more I have yet to see), but Swank was definitely better than Bening, and I fail to see the same thing everyone else saw in Lawrence. Sorry; that’s just how it is. I suppose I should give some reasoning, and it would be how I didn’t find Lawrence to be very convincing, but I completely bought Swank’s desperation and determination. I’m not giddy with delight (it’s not a great performance or anything), but it was certainly better than Lawrence’s or Bening’s.
Jason: the Inception cast is good, and they all do great work. Unfortunately, they’re not given a whole lot to do (character development is not the film’s strong point). It’s like a college kid getting an A+ in 5th grade math; he did a great job, but is it really that impressive? (That being said, a nod for Ellen Page or Marion Cotillard would have been nice.)
At this point it looks like Manville would not have gotten a nod regardless of where SPC placed her.
Either not enough voters saw the film or they just hated the character.
If anyone is wondering why the actors of Another Year, Blue Valentine and Biutiful got snubbed it’s probably because those films are all coming out on December 29!
Films like these can’t wait till the end of the year to be released. Big films like True Grit and The Fighter can do that and get away with it but not these small films.
This is why I think Fox Searchlight’s scheduling of Tree of Life to open in May is a smart move and will pay off.
I think Manville’s suffering hugely from category confusion. SPC made a terrible choice in following the Cannes award with a Best Actress campaign when such a powerful category was brewing. The film’s late release (and Leigh’s commercial unpopularity in the States) made this campaign a lose-lose from the start. Perhaps if this had been released in October/November, given time to burn slowly, they could have seen some recognition in the lead category. But with such huge huge talented names competing up there (and competing so strongly), I don’t see why Manville was put in such a precarious position.
*Whatever, James D., whoever the 9u7b3qg you are. The Globes didn’t go for True Grit because they finally stopped rubberstamping everything The Coens have done. Jeff Bridges is no John Wayne and Callie Steinfeld is no Kim Darby.*
The Globes have never been that fond of the Coens. Yeah, they’ve nominated them before, but they picked Atonement over No Country and failed to nominate A Serious Man in the comedy category in favor of crap like Nine and It’s Complicated. And Bridges is a better actor than John Wayne ever was, and Darby was dreadful in the original True Grit. Steinfeld looks to give a much better performance.
True Grit is going to get a slew of Oscar nominations. I have much more faith in the Academy than a small group of people who thought The Tourist and Burlesque were amongst the best films of the year.
I don’t get “hate” for Swank. It’s just that there better performances and, yes, better actors out there (i.e., Michelle Williams).
One name no one’s mentioned – Julianne Moore. Much as I admired Bening, I don’t get the calls that she’s “due,” certainly not more than Moore.
That Hilary Swank has two Oscars (though deserved) and Moore zero is the greater crime.
Swank is included over Williams? Interesting …
Does someone care to explain to me how Josh Pence is an ensemble member for playing a body double, but Rooney Mara is not included for her genuinely vital supporting work in that film? There are MANY names in the King’s Speech line-up that provide a small, small fraction of the impact that Mara made in her film. WHAT is that guy doing in this list?! Is there any way for the studio to at least campaign to get Mara’s name in there?
So true, Matthew. Can’t understand why they would release Blue Valentine so late in the year. It could’ve survived much better as an August film, a la Half Nelson and/or Frozen River. If not, November might’ve worked as well. It’s still a damn shame.
Pretty much a total rear end smooching of the hardcore arthouse.
If you think “Black Swan” and “The Kids Are All Right” are “hardcore arthouse,” I suggest you see a few more movies.
Never in my wildest dreams would I imagine Black Swan having this strong a showing in the awards circuit. It’s a movie everybody thought would get in the BP race in the final slots, but all this continuous love indicates that, if there were 5 nominees this year, Black Swan would definitely be among them.
If there were five:
The Social Network
The King’s Speech
The Fighter
Black Swan
Inception (c’mon guys, it would never get a nom at the SAG)
Steve: There was no Cannes award for Manville. Juliette Binoche won.
Andrej: I’m still not getting you. The only “rule,” written or unwritten, at play here is mathematics.
Everyone: Before you declare a contender’s Oscar nomination hopes entirely dead based on their performance thus far in the precursors, remember the names Laura Linney and Michael Shannon.
I think Jackie Weaver is safe for a nomination, I predicted her getting in WITHOUT mention by the Globes and SAG. And she got nommed at the former, so I feel even strongly, regardless she got snubbed today.
And since Guy suggested going to the bar let’s have a drink in honor of Javier Bardem, who clearly won’t break into the Best Actor race, even though nothing is set in stone until nominations are announced. But evidenced by the consistent snubs by all critic’s groups it just won’t happen. Bummer.
Also, there should be more love for Breaking Bad on the TV side :)
Oh my God, I really thought you were kidding about the Stunt Ensemble nomination for “Inception”! Sad. But there’s still hope for Oscars, right?
Yay for the Best Ensemble cast for “The Social Network.” Glad Jesse Eisenberg scored a nod but sad for Garfield. Maybe he split votes with Armie Hammer (and there’s JT too).
Sorry for the grammatical error, I meant
nod for Best Ensemble.
“LOL, oh Paul. Never change. Just go away.”
Priceless. And so true.
“Are people seriously thinking Inception is out of the BP 10 because it didn’t get a SAG nom?”
No, it’s just Paul who does. Clearly he never heard of District 9.
Minority Report could have easily gotten in in the year of ten. And it would have actually been, you know, campaigned just like it deserved.
Guy:
What I meant is that even if it’s all voting and simple math, it still feels like Winter’s Bone could have gotten Ensemble, and I think it was really close for them, so the Hawkes nomination feels coincidental since he had stiff competition from Garfield and Damon, yet he made it anyways. It’s all math, but there’s some statistic thrown there to spice things up.
As for the ‘unwritten rule’ thing, well, every now and then there’s a nomination or a miss that defies odds, and it sort of becomes a tradition for whatever reason. To me, this is one of them.
@ Matthew:
Another Year, Blue Valentine and Biutiful have been relentlessly screened for the SAG Nominating Committee and the general Guild membership for weeks now. (In the past two weeks I’ve missed one screening of Biutiful because I had a cold, another because my flight from the East Coast was delayed, and there’s yet another tonight.)
I think the actors in these films were snubbed because all three films are downers, and, sad to say, the Guild prefers uplift. Black Swan is occupying the arty downer slot this year.
Kunis is in for the Oscars. I’m calling it now. Leo/Adams/Bonham Carter/Kunis and either Wiever or Wiest (my guess right now is Wiever).
Also, it’s long been safe to rule Steinfeld out of the running, in my opinion. The Academy has a history of correcting category fraud and placing actresses into the lead category even though they’re pushed as supporting. See “The Reader,” “Whale Rider,” and how Cotillard didn’t get nominated for “Nine” even though Cruz did.
Predicted the Hawkes over Garfield thing, did NOT see Weaver snubs or Swank inclusions coming.
‘Black Swan’ was probably the story of the day as it continues to defy expectations with how well it is performing this season.
‘The Fighter’ meanwhile solidifies its position as the real dark horse to watch in the BP race. I think it’ll win the ensemble prize, and who knows from there…
That would be great news for Weaver, Jasper. If they refuse to nominate Manville and/or Gosling & Williams, then put Steinfeld in lead over Swank and let Weaver take her supporting slot.
The Academy should really let us Oscar snobs run this shit. Although I give them a lot of credit for jumping aboard the indie bandwagon ever since Junebug.
Little known fact:
If Lesley Manville is not nominated for an Oscar, she will be the first woman to win the NBR Best Actress award and not go on to an Oscar nomination in over ten years. Bjork was the last one in 2000. Before that, it was Mia Farrow in 1990 for “Alice.”
Maybe it’s a ten year event.
In other news, boo to the Garfield snub, but HUZZAH for John Hawkes. The best supporting performance I’ve seen this year. Therefore, I’m left with blaming Jeremy Renner. He was amazing in “The Hurt Locker,” but in this he was only slightly above average. I don’t get the buzz for him. If it hadn’t have been for last year, this performance wouldn’t be anywhere near a ballot.
I love how everyone is confident that one actor is better than the other. I watched Winter’s Bone and The Kids Are Alright in spring and comparing them to things I’m seeing now. I used to do High School thespian competitions and if I ever suggested the judges watch the entries months or seasons apart, I’d be laughed out of the room. Also, haven’t you ever watched a movie and got it in your mind that this actor did this amazing scene and then later watched it and realized it wasn’t as great as you remembered it. There should really be a lot less certainty in these comments and more discussion on how this whole system sucks.
I basically feel like 4 out of 5 in each category is locked; with Actor looking the most secure.
I like that there seems to be about 7 people in each category gunning for the 5.
I’m glad that nothing is dead set in stone yet.
Except for Swank these acting nods also come in movies that are considered top 10 to 20 of the year – haven’t any of you considered that maybe, just maybe you’re reacting more to the movie than the performance? If you take out the great writing, directing and dramatic music, is this actor really still just as great as you think he/she is?
@Paul,
I realize that the films I mentioned are being screened for all guilds but my main point is that by coming out so late it has to compete with a ton of other, bigger films being screened like True Grit, The Fighter and Black Swan.
Like you said people get busy in December, they get sick, it’s cold, they don’t want to leave their house and miss Dancing with the Stars to go watch a Mike Leigh film but they might have in August.
Also they are obviously more likely to stand out if they come out in Spring or Summer. Hence why Kids and Winter’s Bone are getting a lot of love these last few weeks.