Now that most of the major critics’ groups have had their say, tomorrow begins the second phase of the precursor season, as the Screen Actors’ Guild makes the first of this year’s industry award pronouncements.
I always feel a twinge of dread about the SAG nomination list — frequently more middle-of-the-road than the critics’ picks, though with odd flashes of peer affection for unlikely veterans and character actors, they have a way of reducing the pool of Oscar hopefuls rather aggressively. More often than not, boredom ensues: last year, 19 of the 20 SAG individual performance nominees went on to repeat at the Oscars.
Suffice to say, a snub from these guys stings more than one from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, but Marcia Gay Harden will forever remain a beacon of hope to the SAG-ignored: 10 years ago, a diss from the Guild (and indeed from virtually every other precursor, save the New York critics) didn’t stop her taking the golden boy home for “Pollock.”
Predictions after the jump.
Tomorrow, I’m particularly interested to see what shows up in the Best Ensemble category, often mistreated by SAG voters as a catch-all category for Best Picture frontrunners — though not in 2007, where they threw in curious curveballs like “3.10 to Yuma.” Will “Inception” brush in ahead of more actor-y pieces like “The Kids Are All Right” and “The Town?” I have a feeling not, but if I’m wrong, the film’s campaign is clearly in rude health. The ubiquitous “The Social Network” will inevitably pop up in the top race, but will a group of peers be as taken with the film’s young, semi-outsider stars as the critics?
Also hoping for some displays of peer affection after missing out elsewhere are beloved vets like Robert Duvall and Dianne Wiest: if their friends at SAG don’t prop them up, I’m not sure who will. I’ve stuck mostly to the status quo in my predictions below, with a pair of wild cards: I’m starting to wonder if the lovefest for his “Fighter” co-stars could sweep Mark Wahlberg in as well, while John Hawkes is the kind of hardworking stalwart of screens big and small that SAG sometimes likes to throw a (ahem) bone.
The 2010 Screen Actors’ Guild nominations will be announced at 6 a.m. PST tomorrow morning. We’ll be on it. In the meantime, check out my predictions below and share yours in the comments.
Best Ensemble
“The Fighter”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
“The Town”
Best Actor
Robert Duvall, “Get Low”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”
Mark Wahlberg, “The Fighter”
Best Actress
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”
John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone”
Jeremy Renner, “The Town”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham-Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”
Dianne Wiest, “Rabbit Hole”
Best Stunt Ensemble
“Inception”
“Iron Man 2”
“Unstoppable”
[Photo: Paramount Pictures]
Comments
47 responses to “Make your SAG predictions”
Has the Nominating Committee seen “True Grit”? Hard to imagine them leaving out Jeff Bridges or Hailee Steinfeld.
Also, I went to a Committee screening for “Another Year” and Lesley Manville was treated like a rock star. Still got my fingers crossed for her.
Sadly, I think you might be right about Wahlberg getting a nod for his close proximity to good actors.
I’m going with..
Actor: Bridges, Duvall, Eisenberg, Firth, Franco
Actress: Bening, Kidman, Lawrence, Portman, Williams
S. Actor: Bale, Garfield, Renner, Ruffalo, Rush
S. Actress: Adams, Bonham Carter, Leo, Steinfeld, Weaver
Ensemble: The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, The Town
Alternates: Gosling, Manville, Hawkes, Kunis, Black Swan, respectively.
Oh, and I sure hope you’re right about Hawkes, Guy. I’ve got my fingers crossed, but not the guts to predict him.
I also think, and hope, Manville will get something here.
I also think either Black Swan or True Grit will get in for ensemble and replace The Town from your list.
Yes! Also forgot to mention how badly I want to see this for Hawkes.
Poor Sam Rockwell though…
For Best Ensemble I’d say… uh…
– The Fighter.
– The Kids Are All Right.
– The King’s Speech.
– The Social Network.
– Winter’s Bone.
HOWEVER, in Bizarro World things would be like this:
– Burlesque.
– Inception.
– The King’s Speech.
– The Social Network.
– The Town.
It’s not a bad bizarro world though. 2007 was way more off.
SammysRun: I like Wahlberg very much in The Fighter. I’m not being snide about him.
I’ll go:
Firth, Franco, Duvall, Gosling, Eisenberg
Bening, Moore, Kidman, Williams, Lawrence
Bale, Ruffalo, Rush, Hawkes, Garfield
Adams, Leo, HBC, Manville, Steinfeld
Misses for Bridges, Wahlberg, Bardem, Renner, Weaver, Weist.
I see Moore in Lead, Manville getting in, and with Supporting; just as nice SAG twists.
Who the heck knows.
Do you think there’s any chance that Rockwell could steal the spot that you currently have Hawkes in?
[…] original post here: Make your SAG predictions Tags: mark wahlberg, predictions, the social network Posted in: […]
Ensemble-The Social Network, The King’s Speech, True Grit, The Fighter, and Winter’s Bone
Actor- Colin Firth, Jessie Eisenberg, James Franco, Jeff Bridges, and Robert Duvall
Actress- Annette Benning, Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, Nicole Kidman, and Jennifer Lawrence
Supp. Actor- Christian Bale, Geoffrey Rush, John Hawkes, Mark Ruffalo, and Matt Damon
Supp. Actress- Hailee Steinfield, Jackie Weaver, Amy Adams, Helena Bonham Carter, and Melissa Leo
I have a hard time thinking Wahlberg could get in. He seems to pale in comparison with the rest of the cast, and Best Actor just feels way too crowded with great performances for him to make the cut. Of course, I haven’t seen the film, maybe it’s a powerhouse performance that the trailers allude nothing to it being.. But I’m just not feeling it, especially with him so very likely getting a SAG nomination anyway for Ensemble.
Watch the film, Graysmith. It’s not a powerhouse per se, but it’s rock-solid work.
I think Dale Dickey has her best chance here if she had a chance anywhere
They studio have fucked up Manville by not placing her officially in a category. That’s how she misses a lot of nominations. Why didn’t they just place her in Supporting where she would actually win?
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
1. Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
2. Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
3. James Franco (127 Hours)
4. Robert Duvall (Get Low)
5. Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
1. Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
2. Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
3. Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
4. Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
5. Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
1. Christian Bale (The Fighter)
2. Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
3. Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
4. Jeremy Renner (The Town)
5. Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
1. Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
2. Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
3. Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
4. Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
5. Barbara Hershey (Black Swan)
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
1. The Kids Are All Right
2. Inception
3. The Fighter
4. The Social Network
5. Black Swan
Best Ensemble
“The Fighter”
“Winter’s Bone”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
“The Town”
Best Actor
Robert Duvall, “Get Low”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”
Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
Best Actress
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”
John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone”
Jeremy Renner, “The Town”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Mila Kunis, “Black Swan”
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”
Dale Dickey, “Winter’s Bone”
Don’t count out Mila Kunis – she has a BFCA and a GG nod.
Ensemble
The Fighter
The Town
The Social Network
Black Swan
The Kids Are All Right
Actor
Colin Firth
James Franco
Jesse Eisenberg
Ryan Gosling
Mark Wahlberg
Actress
Annette Bening
Natalie Portman
Nicole Kidman
Michelle Williams
Lesley Manville
Supporting Actor
Christian Bale
Geoffrey Rush
Mark Ruffalo
Jeremy Renner
Andrew Garfield
Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo
Amy Adams
Jacki Weaver (please let this happen!!)
Barbara Hershey
Dianne Wiest
a true grit shut out? not bloody likely sirrr
Ensemble: The Kids are All Right, The Social Network, The King’s Speech, The Fighter, The Town
Actor: James Franco, Colin Firth, Robert Duvall, Jesse Eisenberg, Ryan Gosling
Actress: Natalie Portman, Annete Bening, Julianne Moore, Lesley Manville, Jennifer Lawrence
Supp. Actor: Christian Bale, Geoffrey Rush, Andrew Garfield, Mark Ruffalo, Jeremy Renner
Supp. Actress: Jacki Weaver, Melissa Leo, Amy Adams, Hailee Steinfeld, Helena Bonham Carter
In my dream world: Olivia Williams
I just watched True Grit. Matt Damon has never been better. I hope he gets SAG recognition.
I have a feeling Leo Dicaprio is gonna squeak a nom.
It looks like Michelle Williams has a good chance at an Oscar nod now but I’ve herd she doesn’t deserve it! And Jeff Bridges has too get a nod!
If there is a minority voting block, don’t be surprised to see For Colored end up in Ensemble. Heck, crazier things have happened. Just not this year, yet. LOL
Ensemble
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The Social Network
The Town
True Grit
Actor
Jeff Bridges
Colin Firth
James Franco
Ryan Gosling
Mark Wahlberg
Actress
Annette Bening
Nicole Kidman
Jennifer Lawrence
Carey Mulligan
Natalie Portman
Supporting Actor
Christian Bale
Andrew Garfield
Sam Rockwell
Mark Ruffalo
Geoffrey Rush
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams
Helena Bonham-Carter
Barbara Hershey
Mila Kunis
Melissa Leo
All I know is, if Mila Kunis gets in Supporting, we’re looking at Oscar nominee Mila Kunis next. I hope she pulls it off.
Guy, what makes you think SAG isn’t likely to shine the light on some burdgeoning younger stars? I seem to remember years where the likes of Ryan Gosling, Emile Hirsch, Dakota Fanning, Jamie Bell, Freddie Highmore, etc, etc were recognized by SAG but not by many other groups (including the Academy).
Gathering from buzz lately…
-Jesse Eisenberg/Ryan Gosling/Mark Wahlberg in…Robert Duvall/Jeff Bridges out
-Michelle Williams in…Lesley Manville out
Supporting could go anyway at this point. Looks like Christian Bale and Melissa Leo might have it all sewn up at this point.
I agree with your ensemble picks. Though Inception or Black Swan could easily slip in.
Best Ensemble:
The Fighter
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges
Jesse Eisenberg
Colin Firth
James Franco
Ryan Gosling
Best Actress:
Annette Bening
Nicole Kidman
Jennifer Lawrence
Lesley Manville
Natalie Portman
Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale
Matt Damon
Jeremy Renner
Mark Ruffalo
Geoffrey Rush
Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams
Helena Bonham Carter
Melissa Leo
Hailee Steinfeld
Jacki Weaver
I got the craziest feeling Black Swan’s lack of ensembleness will lead to a singular nod for lead actress, but I’ve got my finger’s crossed for Kunis (and Hershey).
Also to John Hawkes who gave a heck of a performance.
Guy, you don’t think Eisenberg will get in for Best Actor? I know the guild would possibly nominate Robert Duvall or even Wahlberg but not over Eisenberg.
SAG Predictions
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges = True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg = The Social Network
Colin Firth = The King’s Speech
James Franco = 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg = The Fighter
Alt: Ryan Gosling = Blue Valentine OR Robert Duvall = Get Low
Best Actress
Annette Bening = The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence = Winter’s Bone
Lesley Manville = Another Year
Natalie Portman = Black Swan
Michelle Williams = Blue Valentine
Alt: Nicole Kidman = Rabbit Hole
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale = The Fighter
Andrew Garfield = The Social Network
John Hawkes = Winter’s Bone
Mark Ruffalo = The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush = The King’s Speech
Alt: Jeremy Renner = The Town OR Matt Damon = True Grit
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams = The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter = The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis = Black Swan
Melissa Leo = The Fighter
Jacki Weaver = Animal Kingdom
Alt: Hailee Steinfeld = True Grit OR Dianne Wiest = Rabbit Hole
Best Ensemble
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Alt: The Town OR The Kids Are All Right OR Winter’s Bone
ENSEMBLE:
THE FIGHTER *WINS
THE TOWN
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
SHUTTER ISLAND
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
ACTOR:
JEFF BRIDGES – TRUE GRIT
COLIN FIRTH – THE KING’S SPEECH *WINS
MARK WAHLBERG – THE FIGHTER
JAMES FRANCO – 127 HOURS
LEONARDO DICAPRIO – SHUTTER ISLAND
ACTRESS:
NATALIE PORTMAN – BLACK SWAN *WINS
NICOLE KIDMAN – RABBIT HOLE
SALLY HAWKINS – MADE IN DAGENHAM
ANNETTE BENING – KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
JULIANNE MOORE – KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
CHRISTIAN BALE – THE FIGHTER *WINS
GEOFFREY RUSH – THE KING’S SPEECH
MARK RUFFALO – THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
SAM ROCKWELL – CONVICTION
MATT DAMON – TRUE GRIT
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
MELISSA LEO – THE FIGHTER *WINS
AMY ADAMS – THE FIGHTER
HAILEE STEINFELD – TRUE GRIT
HELENA BONHAM CARTER – THE KING’S SPEECH
JACKI WEAVER – ANIMAL KINGDOM
And a little commentary — out of everyone being considered by SAG, I have to say, the beautiful quiet, understated, nuanced performance of Mark Wahlberg is, in my opinion, among the best of the year. That said, Colin Firth is winning.
Julianne Moore is better than Annette Bening in the kids are all right. Yeah, I said it. But Natalie Portman should, and will, win.
I didn’t even think Hailee Steinfeld was that good in true grit, but she’ll get nominated because it’s a weak category and could win if Amy Adams and Melissa Leo (who should win) split their vote. Crazy!
And on a last note, please give Mark Ruffalo and Sam Rockwell their rightful nominations.
Very Sincerely,
A SAG Member who never gets chosen for the damn nominating committee!!!
I have a NGNG for tomorrow: Justin Timberlake.
Ensemble: The Social Network, The Kids Are All Right, The Town, The Fighter, The King’s Speech
Actor: Firth, Franco, Duvall, Gosling, Eisenberg
Actress: Bening, Kidman, Lawrence, Portman, Williams
Supp. Actor: Bale, Garfield, Rockwell, Ruffalo, Rush
Supp. Actress: Adams, Bonham Carter, Leo, Steinfeld, Weaver
Hoping there is room for Manville….somewhere.
Do I need to reel of the list of actors who have received GG and SAG nominations yet still failed to be nominated for Oscar? Do I really need to do that?
Phylicia Rashad will pull a Ruby Dee this year.
MY NGNG is Carter missing out in Supporting? I think that Weaver, Adams, Leo, Steinfeld are in and either one of the The Black Swan Actress or Weist will knock out Carter..
I’ll play:
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, “Biutiful”
Robert Duvall, “Get Low”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”
Best Actress
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”
Jeremy Renner, “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”
Best Ensemble
“The Fighter”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
“The Town”
“Winter’s Bone”
Best Stunt Ensemble
“Green Zone”
“Inception”
“Iron Man 2”
“Robin Hood”
“Salt”
Glenn: No, you don’t. But the Academy has been hewing depressingly close to SAG in recent years.
Jake G: It looks like Michelle Williams has a good chance at an Oscar nod now but I’ve herd [sic] she doesn’t deserve it!
Perhaps, uh, wait to see the film for yourself? Your source is clearly in the minority — Williams thoroughly deserves a nod.
Best Ensemble
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Best Actor
Robert Duvall “Get Low”
Jesse Eisenberg “The Social Network”
Colin Firth “The King’s Speech”
James Franco “127 Hours”
Ryan Gosling “Blue Valentine”
Best Actress
Annette Benning “The Kids Are All Right”
Jennifer Lawrence “Winter’s Bone”
Lesley Manville “Another Year”
Natalie Portman “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams “Blue Valentine”
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale “The Fighter”
Andrew Garfield “The Social Network”
Sam Rockwell “Conviction”
Mark Ruffalo “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush “The King’s Speech”
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter “The King’s Speech”
Barbara Hershey “Black Swan”
Melissa Leo “The Fighter”
Jacki Weaver “Animal Kingdom”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Robert Duvall (Get Low)
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Sally Hawkins (Made in Dagenham)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Matt Damon (True Grit)
Sam Rockwell (Conviction)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Lesley Manville (Another Year)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Conviction
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Where are the nominations streaming online? What network on TV?
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble
Inception
Iron Man 2
Robin Hood
Salt
Unstoppable
This whole Manville thing stinks.
If Steinfeld, who is in almost every frame (so, I hear), can get a supp. campaign, why can’t Manville’s performance not get a less controversial placement by putting ‘her’ in supporting, too?
I know category fraud stinks, but it happens every year, and Manville could have been a real contender instead of a hopeful.
This isn’t a Winslet, Moore, Kidman whose clout can carry them a bit – this is Manville.
Anyone thinking that ‘Mother and Child’ could pop up here in some capacity?
An actors movie with tons of good actors in it; one of the first screeners sent out, etc..