*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.
Here we go again. There’s very little reason to think that “Avatar” won’t spend a sixth consecutive weekend at the top of the box office. No film has done that since “Titanic” and only three have done it since 1988. It’s just not possible these days. But here we stand.
While the Golden Globes did little to make me think James Cameron wasn’t a total prick, it did help “Avatar” gain even more momentum during awards season and another $30 million+ weekend should be in store, taking the film past “The Dark Knight” on the all-time chart. Since that was one of the few blockbusters I could stomach, I’m sad to see it usurped so quickly.
Second place will be a battle between two grown men with wings. One is playing it for laughs and the other is playing it for badass religious action. Did you catch the word that is box office poison in the last sentence? Actually, “Legion” has garnered a fair amount of decent buzz and Sony is better than anyone at turning these types of genre films into hits so that might balance out the R-word. I think a $16 million debut would be impressive and anything higher would be huge.
“Tooth Fairy” is lucky that Jackie Chan did a faceplant last weekend and surely kids want to see something besides “Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel” again. A large screen count and the never-ending appeal of muscular men in tights should see it through to a $18-$20 million debut.
Attention fans of “Mother May I Sleep With Danger,” “A Dad for Christmas” and “Saving Jessica Lynch.” Tired of only being able to see your favorite movies premiering on the small screen? CBS feels you so the company has started a distribution company to put lifeless, inspirational true stories on the big screen just for you. Sadly, they weren’t able to convince theaters to also stock tubs of ice cream for you to purchase. $7 million for “Extraordinary Measures.”
What are you guys seeing this weekend?
Comments
34 responses to “FRIDAY FORECAST: The awful ‘Tooth’”
Chad, I like your box office columns and all, but don’t you think if you don’t blockbusters and all, this is a little bit of, i don’t know, sadomasochism? :-P
Anyway, Avatar will probably be a $30M, followed by $17M from the Tooth Fairy, $15M for Legion, and $5M for the Harrison Ford thing
I agree with what the above poster said – why do you write a box office column which, inevitably, will be focused on blockbusters if you can’t stomach most of them?
Also I’m not sure at all why you say religion is a poisonous word as it comes to box office. Many of the most surprising recent box office successes were based around religious themes: The Passion of the Christ and Fireproof are the first to come to mind. Other movies with a subtle embrace of religion, such as The Blind Side, have been successful. Hell, even Bill Maher’s religion documentary, Religulous, made enough money (over 13 mil unadjusted) to make it the 9th highest grossing documentary ever.
I’m thinking 34 mil for Avatar, 16 each for Tooth Fairy and Legion (probably a slight edge to Tooth Fairy) and 14 million for Extraordinary Measures (the advertising looks like it’s going to capture a good deal of the religious right audience).
Chad, sometimes it’s hard to figure out what – if anything – you like at all (besides “Sugar”). But this column was hilarious. You’ve got talent, man!
My guess is that Legion is #2 friday but Toothfairy is #2 for the weekend.
I was always a fan, but with your aside about James Cameron, you just earned my lifelong admiration.
Ziyad- Indeed I’m cursed. It’s a bit like paying $80,000 for film school only to discover I want to make movies no one will ever pay to see.
Bernard- Those movies were catered to the older religious base, which is different than a genre-action film aimed at listless youth. Look at Hilary Swank’s The Reaping for example.
Joe- I liked Youth in Revolt.
Chad: I’ll see them, if you send me a screener or something ;-).
Oh, I’m seeing Invictus this weekend, because it opened here this weekend here.
Not going to the theaters until “Shutter Island” comes out February 19th?
I want to see “Extraoridanry Measures”. I think it looks, solid, well done and correctly done. I don’t care for idiotic “made of TV” comparissons. I think the fact that the film is free of excess and all the better for it.
A Single Man for me tonight. Maybe Youth in Revolt or It’s Complicated later this weekend. Love both Cera and Meryl so it’ll be a tough call.
Looks like I completely missed A Serious Man, Invictus, and Fantastic Mr. Fox though. Oops.
Bob, I’ll see Fish Tank next week. And I’ll pass on Shutter Island.
What? Chad, you don’t consider Scorsese essential viewing?
Here’s the deal with Scorsese- Who’s That Knocking on My Door, Mean Streets, Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, The King of Comedy and Goodfellas are all incredible. But they are all more than 20 years old. His last three films were atrocious and it’s just depressing to sit through. I think his time as a master filmmaker is up and he should become a professor, which he would be amazing at.
Jake, I love Meryl, but “It’s Complicated” is damn near unwatchable. Keep away.
Chad, I’m going to have to disagree with you. I’ve never understood what people don’t like about The Departed. It’s very watchable, very well-acted, and tells the story extremely well. Outside of the abrupt bang-bang ending, it’s phenomenal. I feel like most of the people on here that are mad it won BP just don’t like it because it actually has mass appeal to just about everyone and didn’t do anything to revolutionize any aspect of movies.
The Aviator was a weaker outing but I’d never call it atrocious. I’ve actually never seen Gangs of New York, even though I’ve been meaning to.
Even if you don’t care for Departed, Gangs or Aviator, a position I staunchly disagree with but can accept, I don’t know how you can speak ill of No Direction Home – it’s one of the best documentaries I’ve ever seen.
The Reaping wasn’t exactly a disaster, considering the quality of the movie (9% positive on RT) it did rather well. Budget of under 40 million, made over 65 mil worldwide, plus another 40 in DVD sales and rentals = profit. The Exorcist: The Beginning, one of the biggest production disasters in movie history (and 11% positive on RT), made 78 mil worldwide on a 50 mil budget (which, I believe, includes the entire movie being reshot) plus DVD sales/rentals.
Book of Eli, which is, I believe, every bit if not more religious than Legion sure didn’t have any trouble pulling in an audience this past weekend – at a much higher rate than Denzel’s previous film, the Pelham 1,2,3 remake (which had the benefit of a box office drawing co-star and a well known director).
I don’t think the fact that bad movies either barely break even or lose some money, has anything to do with the religious element – it’s because the movies are garbage. Just based on RT numbers: 9% for Reaping, 11% for Exorcist 4, 7% for The Order, etc
Broad playing movies like The Da Vinci Code and Angels & Demons weren’t exactly hurt at the (worldwide) box office because of heavy religious themes either.
Rob: I actually found “It’s Complicated” kind of a guilty pleasure. I prefer it (and Meryl in it) to “Julie & Julia,” unpopular as that opinion is.
I just saw “Ultimatum” today at the Atlanta Jewish Film Festival and I’ll be seeing “Crazy Heart” tomorrow and maybe “Avatar” in 3D on Sunday… I’ve only seen it in 2D.
Scorsese’s last three films were atrocious??
WOW…I mean WOW!!
Chad’s entitled to his opinion, but I couldn’t disagree more.
Actually, I agree with Chad about Scorsese’s last movies. I think The Departed is the worst Oscar winner of the decade.
Haven’t seen No Direction Home and I bet it is great. Scorsese could also become a full time documentarian and that would be great. I just don’t think he has anything interesting to say in his narratives anymore and Shutter Island looks like another example of that.
Chad, what about numbers for To Save A Life? I had never heard of it, but it is playing at every local theater.
Samuel Goldwyn didn’t report a theater count but I imagine it’s somewhere between 150 and 500 screens. It’s not getting anywhere near the top 10.
I liked The Aviator more than the Departed actually. His recent work hasn’t been top-knotch but then again, I haven’t seen any of his supposed masterpieces – Taxi Driver, Raging Bull or Goodfellas – so I’m probably not a goog gauge of what’s vintage Scorsese.
You not like blockbusters is akin to saying you can’t stomach independent films, or foreign language films. Ignorance at its best (worst?).
liking*, my bad.
@ Kevin
Get yo ass on to Netflix and watch every Scorsese movie you find
My personal recommendations:
-Goodfellas
-The King of Comedy
-Raging Bull
-Bringing Out the Dead
-Taxi Driver
on Scorcese’s latest 3 (for me):
Gangs – Good, well crafted, too long, lost steam near the end.
Aviator – Impeccably crafted, wonderful old Hollywood feel, too long, not enough charater humanity/depth.
Departed – Engrossing, but excessive cursing took me out of it way too often.
3 solids, but no masterpieces in sight.
Netflix’s only available in the US, isn’t it? Unfortunately, I’m an Australian so that may not be a viable idea. Although, I appreciate the sentiment and will try to hunt down some Scorsese films by…alternative means.
Oh Chad.
Aren’t these kind of troll columns? I like the analysis of box office but I could do without the rest.
And yes I do appreciate the irony of asking what I just did in the tone that I did.
It’s not ignorance if I’m seeing the blockbusters and not liking them is it?
what’s a troll column? I’m not trying to get a rise out of the readers if that’s what you mean. I’m just trying to make the column entertaining and get my opinions in there along with the facts.