VENICE: Who will take the gold … and who should

And so it comes to this. Ten days of blazing sunshine, free-flowing Prosecco, occasionally “Brazil”-style administration and – oh, right – a few films too, will come to a head tonight as Ang Lee and his merry band of jurors will name the supposed best of the fest.

I’ve written before about the near-futility of predicting festival awards. Unlike the Oscars, the voting body is different every time, so you’re never quite sure what they’re looking for. We persist because it’s fun, thought it actually becomes more difficult when you’ve seen most of the films in question, as personal reservations (or fondnesses) keep getting in the way.

If I were back in London, for example, I’d be more open to the whispers that Fatih Akin’s cheery but slight crowdpleaser “Soul Kitchen” is a serious contender for the Golden Lion, effectively serving Marco Müller’s more populist programming direction; having actually seen the film, my gut reaction is more in the “you’ve got to be kidding me” vein.

If no clear-cut frontrunner has emerged from this year’s lineup, it’s because no film has united critical opinion and mainstream media interest the way “Brokeback” or last year’s champ “The Wrestler” did. Some are plumping for Michael Moore, though that would seem a bit old-hat five years after Cannes laurelled “Fahrenheit 9/11.”

(More thoughts, and my will win/should win picks, after the cut.)

By far the most enthusiastic press conference I attended was for Tom Ford’s excellent “A Single Man,” though Italian affection for the director, a former Gucci supremo after all, may have been a factor. As it stands, “A Single Man” is well-positioned for a win, not least because late-breaking Lido hits often have an advantage. (It would also be the festival’s way of chiding journos who left early for Toronto.)

But scattered years like this often result in a deserving but comparatively low-profile winner – as was the case when “Still Life” triumphed in 2006. This gives critics’ favorite (and current bookies’ pick) “Lourdes” a better shot than it might have in starrier years.

Similarly, Samuel Maoz’s harrowing “Lebanon” could benefit from a political vote, while its autobiographical nature might register with the jury. If they really feel like catching people unawares, there’s Sri Lankan entry “Between Two Worlds,” dismissed by some as art for art’s sake, but with some mightily passionate supporters too.

Two films stand to benefit if the jury feels drawn to a more recognizable auteur name – as often happens in Venice. Todd Solondz hasn’t really been away, but “Life During Wartime” feels like a comeback nonetheless; one of the first Competition titles to screen, it has remained in the conversation all week, which is a good sign.

“White Material,” meanwhile, is no comeback, but a prize for the film could amount to career recognition for the tireless (and largely unawarded) Claire Denis. My personal festival favorite, it’s more admired than liked at this stage, but that didn’t stop “Lust, Caution” two years ago.

The acting awards offer surprisingly few choices. The Best Actor race, oddly, seems to be down to three English-language performances, of which Colin Firth’s is easily the strongest. Some support remains for Viggo Mortensen, though “The Road” is rapidly cooling on the Lido and few feel it’s his best work.

A more likely wild-card is Nicolas Cage: there’s a lingering affection here for both “Bad Lieutenant” and his madcap lead turn. An award for the film could also amount to a pat on the back to Werner Herzog for his history-making efforts in bringing two (awful) films to Venice. (A lifetime achievement honor could also be forthcoming.) If the jury feels more globally-inclined, an award for the young ensemble of “Lebanon” would not surprise me.

Best Actress is even leaner. Isabelle Huppert is favored by many to take the prize, though there may be a feeling that she’s been amply rewarded and that “White Material” doesn’t represent any particular breakthrough for her. Other possibilities include Sylvie Testud (if they really like “Lourdes”), any or all of the Solondz ensemble, the two elderly leads of “Lola” or – if they feel like throwing a bone to the home crowd — the well-reviewed Margherita Buy in “The White Space.”

And with that, here are my best (or worst) guesses in the main categories for tonight’s proceedings, followed by my own personal awards. (I don’t believe in festival-style parity: if a film deserves to sweep, let it sweep, I say.) I’ll probably be in transit while the ceremony plays out, but I’ll fill you in on the other side.

WILL WIN

Golden Lion: “A Single Man”

Grand Jury Prize (awarded to runner-up): “Lourdes”
(alternates: “Soul Kitchen,” “Lebanon”)

Best Director: Samuel Maoz, “Lebanon”
(alternates: Tom Ford, “A Single Man,” Claire Denis, “White Material”)

Best Actor: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
(alternates: Nicolas Cage, “The Bad Lieutenant,” the ensemble of “Lebanon”)

Best Actress: Margherita Buy, “The White Space”
(alternates: Shirley Henderson, “Life During Wartime,” Anita Linda and Rustica Carpio, “Lola”)

Best Screenplay: Todd Solondz, “Life During Wartime”
(alternates: Fatih Akin, “Soul Kitchen, Jessica Hausner, “Lourdes”)

Best Cinematography: Chin Ting-chang, “Prince of Tears”
(alternates: Eduard Grau, “A Single Man,” Yves Cape, “White Material”)

SHOULD WIN

Golden Lion: “White Material”

Grand Jury Prize: “Lourdes”
(runner-up: “A Single Man”)

Best Director: Claire Denis, “White Material”
(runners-up: Tom Ford, “A Single Man,” Brillante Mendoza, “Lola”)

Best Actor: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
(runners-up: Ciaran Hinds, “Life During Wartime,” Nicolas Cage, “The Bad Lieutenant”)

Best Actress: Isabelle Huppert, “White Material”
(runners-up: Charlotte Rampling, “Life During Wartime,” Anita Linda and Rustica Carpio, “Lola”)

Best Screenplay: Claire Denis and Maria NDiaye, “White Material”
(runners-up: Jessica Hausner, “Lourdes,” Todd Solondz, “Life During Wartime”)

Best Cinematography: Eduard Grau, “A Single Man”
(runner-up: Yves Cape, “White Material”)