SUNDAY CENTS: Strong showing for “Knowing”

I guess I should listen to the murmurs. Nicolas Cage’s sci-fi extravaganza “Knowing” took the top spot at the box office this weekend with $24.8 million. In terms of Cage’s career, it’s no “National Treasure” and can’t compete with the holy trifecta of Cage action — “The Rock,” “Face/Off” and “Con Air” — but it does help wipe away some of the bad taste left in the mouth by “Bangkok Dangerous” and “Next.”

Long story short, this guy’s career is the very definition of inconsistent. The result is doubly impressive given that Disney could only manage a similar result for their much more heavily marketed sci-fi adventure last week. I can’t imagine reviews, word of mouth or legs will be great so the big debut is a massive boost for Summit Entertainment, a company still finding its feet and identity.

Second place goes to the Apatow-less “I Love You, Man.”  $18 million is pretty much the exact same amount as “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” and “Role Models” debuted with and since reviews are in the same ballpark, this should do comparable overall business as well. Incidentally, I saw the film last night and found it to be pretty worthless aside from a charming performance by Paul Rudd and one inspired joke involving iTunes. If you want to see an amazing and hilarious “bromantic” comedy, wait for “Humpday” in July.

Our third and final opener is the Clive Owen/Julia Roberts caper “Duplicity.”  Adult-targeted films never stand a chance against shit that blows up, so $14.4 million is a respectable enough place to start.  Star power ain’t what it used to be but the pedigree of the talent in front of and behind the camera should ensure that this one sticks around for a couple of weeks. In the comedic heist sub-genre, “Out of Sight” debuted with $18.5 million in the summer of 1998 and “Bandits” did $16.6 million in 2001. Both finished around $55 million.

Outside of that, “Race to Witch Mountain” behaved more like a sci-fi film and less like a family adventure by dropping 47%. “Watchmen” unbelievably eroded another 62% and earned only $6.7 million for its third weekend. That $55 million debut seems like a long, long time ago. It’s worth a mention that “Paul Blart: Mall Cop” has left our midst after nine straight weeks in the top 10. Goodbye brave Blart and we’ll see you in the sequel two Januarys from now.

Next week should be dominated by “Monsters vs. Aliens.” Paramount and DreamWorks have spent a fortune marketing this thing and I expect the payoff to be a $46 million debut. Maybe $50 million if the screen count winds up being 4,000-plus.

Lionsgate gives us “The Haunting in Connecticut” but surely audiences have to be getting a little bit of horror fatigue by now, right? Let’s give it $9 million.

Finally, John Cena and Reny Harlin team up for “12 Rounds.”  Harlin couldn’t even get his last film in theaters and Cena has zero appeal outside of the wrestling world, but there’s also a gap in the dumb action market now that “Taken” is finally fading off into the sunset. Still, I’ll weep for humanity if it makes more than $7 million.

What are your guesses?

This week’s box office top 10, courtesy of Exhibitor Relations: