Going with ‘Departures’

I said yesterday that if I got cold feet on any of my predictions I would let you know, and less than 24 hours later, I’ve decided to take the dive on “Departures.”

A lot of foreign film committee members really responded to this film, and it’s easy to see why.  It is “the kind of soft, safe, solid work that tends to take out the frontrunner in this category time and again,” I wrote yesterday.  “It deals with death in a really affecting way, at once eerie, humorous and, ultimately, moving.  When it threatens to pass into trite territory, it finds a way to stay fresh and alive, very human and absolutely satisfying…When you look back over the history of this category, you see a certain bias against non-traditional filmmaking,” i.e. an animated/documentary hybrid, however powerful.

Today Pete Hammond has offered his thoughts on the matter, noting that “no animated film, no documentary and no film from Israel has ever won here so it would be three firsts. If not ‘Bashir,’ most pundits then move to the Palme d’Or winner from France, ‘The Class,’” Hammond continues, “but some voters I talked to thought it was dull. One even left after the first half. The committee at large likely did not vote this in on the first round and the academy’s executive committee put in it in the mix (they won’t confirm this but sources indicate that was the case). If you are looking for a pool winner go with Japan for the upset. That country’s film,’Departures’ is one the original foreign language committee LOVED.”  (UPDATE: Pete has now gone ahead and predicted “Departures” for the win as well.)

Then there was that interesting bit of information from commenter Josh yesterday, who said, “‘Departures’ is also the least-screened nominee–if you didn’t see it at an AMPAS members screening, you probably didn’t see it. That’s an old strategy, restricting the pool of voters to the people who’ve gone out of their way to see your movie…The kind of voters who didn’t even nominate ‘Gomorrah’ or ‘4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days’ might well find the other nominees a bit cold, and go for a gentler movie that’s lovely, lyrical and a touch melodramatic.”

Despite the precursor record “Waltz with Bashir” has tallied up, if you look at Academy history, it faces an uphill climb.  And beyond stylistic bias, it could be as simple as one guy at Hollywood Elsewhere put it (rather bluntly): “It’s a cartoon and it makes Israel look bad.”  There might be some painful truth there, however misinformed the opinion might be.

In any case, there’s something in the winds here.  Maybe it’s folly, maybe it’s an attempt at injecting the race with some sort of excitement, maybe I’m falling on my sword, but I’m going to step out onto a limb and predict “Departures” to upset “Waltz with Bashir” tomorrow night.  You only live once, I guess.

The adjustments have been made in the usual places, here, here and, of course, here.  Ditto the sidebar.