Predicting BAFTA, part one — the techs

It’s no secret that the BAFTA awards, which unfold at London’s Royal Opera House on Sunday evening, can be one of the most contrarian and surprising events on the awards calendar – but nowhere are they more unpredictable, and occasionally inscrutable, than in their technical awards.

Year in, year out, anybody trying to predict the BAFTAs is foiled in the tech categories, which they tend to spread far more generously than the American Academy, throwing up one (occasionally head-scratching) shocker after another. Who could foresee “Almost Famous” beating “Gladiator” to Best Sound, or “Vera Drake” getting the better of “The Aviator” in the Costume Design race?

What few people realize is that, unlike at the Oscars, BAFTA’s tech categories (in addition to the directing and writing awards) are voted on by branch members only, rather than the entire membership – and peers can have a very different take from ours on their own craft. This makes predictions a rather thankless task, but I’m forging ahead anyway.

(On a side note, it’s worth bearing in mind that they anticipated some tech upsets at last year’s Oscars, such the “The Bourne Ultimatum” for Best Sound and the jaw-dropping VFX win for “The Golden Compass.”)

Best Cinematography
“Changeling,” Tom Stern
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Claudio Miranda
“The Dark Knight,” Wally Pfister
“The Reader,” Chris Menges and Roger Deakins
“Slumdog Millionaire,” Anthony Dod Mantle

This category represents a 5/5 match with Oscar, though unlike with the Oscars, it’s impossible to discount any of these contenders. Roger Deakins already has two BAFTAs on his mantelpiece, so the “overdue” factor doesn’t come into play here – and “The Reader” isn’t exactly his or Chris Menges’ finest hour. As they’ve shown before with such recent winners as “No Country for Old Men,” “Children of Men” and “Collateral,” BAFTA isn’t quite as partial as AMPAS to postcard-prettiness in this category, paying as much attention to mobility as to imagery, which I think gives Pfister and Dod Mantle a leg up in this race. Meanwhile, I think the IMAX challenge of “The Dark Knight” may impress enough peers to give first-time nominee Pfister the edge.

Will win: “The Dark Knight”
Should win: “The Dark Knight”

Best Production Design
“Changeling,” James J. Murakami; Gary Fettis
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Donald Graham Burt; Victor J. Zolfo
“The Dark Knight,” Nathan Crowley; Peter Lando
“Revolutionary Road,” Kristi Zea; Debra Schutt
“Slumdog Millionaire,” Mark Digby; Michelle Day

Almost impossible to call. “Button” has the most lavish work on display and would appear to be an obvious frontrunner. However, as we saw when “The Truman Show” saw off a dual Elizabethan challenge in 1998, or when “Amelie” beat both “Moulin Rouge!” and “The Fellowship of the Ring” in 2001, opulence doesn’t count for everything with BAFTA. Given that they are more open to contemporary work than AMPAS, I wouldn’t write off “Slumdog” or “The Dark Knight” here. At a guess, however, I think “Changeling”’s balance of period lushness and dirt-stained authenticity might be to their liking – and the film’s astonishing haul of eight nominations suggests the film has a real following here.

Will win: “Changeling”
Should win: “Revolutionary Road”

Best Costume Design
“Changeling,” Deborah Hopper
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Jacqueline West
“The Dark Knight,” Lindy Hemming
“The Duchess,” Michael O’Connor
“Revolutionary Road,” Albert Wolsky

As with the previous category, BAFTA doesn’t always gravitate towards the showiest work in contention – having awarded such work as “Pan’s Labyrinth” and “Vera Drake” in recent years – so I’m not certain that the virtual fashion parade that is “The Duchess” is quite the slam-dunk that it appears to be. However, BAFTA’s costume branch can be quite an insular bunch, picking Brits like Jenny Beavan (“Gosford Park”) and the late Marit Allen (“La Vie en Rose”) over more hotly fancied competition. So that might give Michael O’Connor a home-turf advantage, and I wouldn’t count out a “Dark Knight” upset here either. You just don’t know with these guys.

Will win: “The Duchess”
Should win: “The Duchess”

Best Film Editing
“Changeling,” Joel Cox; Gary Roach
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Kirk Baxter; Angus Wall
“The Dark Knight,” Lee Smith
“Frost/Nixon,” Mike Hill; Dan Hanley
“In Bruges,” Jon Gregory
“Slumdog Millionaire,” Chris Dickens

This category doesn’t have nearly the same close relationship to the Best Film award that it does at the Oscars; you have to go back to 2000 to find a film (“Gladiator”) that took both awards. Meanwhile, BAFTA has been really adventurous in this category of late, highlighting such stylish cutting as “Mulholland Drive,” “City of God” and “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.” This year, however, I think the two interests may overlap: Best Film frontrunner “Slumdog” also has arguably the most playful, attention-grabbing editing of the six nominees. I’d look to the very savvily-cut “In Bruges” to score a potential upset, but the real question remains: what the hell is “Changeling” doing in this particular category?

Will win: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Should win: “In Bruges”

Best Makeup & Hair
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“The Duchess”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk”

That extra “& Hair” designation is a significant one here; BAFTA doesn’t always prize elaborate prosthetics over meticulously recreated period looks, which has lead to them crowning occasional winners – such as “The Aviator” and “The Wings of the Dove” – that wouldn’t even enter the Oscar discussion. Indeed, it’s arguably hair alone that got “The Duchess” into this race. Even by BAFTA’s standards, I think the work in both “Milk” and “Frost/Nixon” is too subtle to win here, whole I’m not sure how wary the BAFTA branch will be of the CGI contributions to “Benjamin Button.” The iconographic work in “The Dark Knight” seems a likely winner here, but I think Keira Knightley’s towering tonsorial sculptures may win the day here.

Will win: “The Duchess”
Should win: “The Dark Knight”

Best Music
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Alexandre Desplat
“The Dark Knight,” Hans Zimmer; James Newton Howard
“Mamma Mia!,” Benny Andersson; Bjorn Ulvaes
“Slumdog Millionaire,” A.R. Rahman
“WALL-E,” Thomas Newman

Any solid grip I had on this category disappeared last year, when Christopher Gunning’s adept but not especially memorable interpretation of the Edith Piaf songbook in “La Vie en Rose” beat both Dario Marianelli and Jonny Greenwood to the punch. (The fact that Gunning is a veteran of British TV must have helped.) Even so, I’d like to think BAFTA’s music branch has enough respect for their craft not to hand the award to a series of karaoke ABBA covers. Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess: Desplat remains unawarded by BAFTA, but they may be edgy enough to recognise the massive scoring achievement on “The Dark Knight.” Given, however, the higher profile that Bollywood cinema enjoys on this side of the Atlantic, I’d look for Rahman (who also has some form in UK film and theatre) to triumph here.

Will win: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Should win: “Slumdog Millionaire”

Best Sound
“Changeling”
“The Dark Knight”
“Quantum of Solace”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“WALL-E”

With the exception of “Changeling” (again… what?), it’s easy to imagine any of the nominees winning. I’m not sure “WALL-E” enjoys the same passionate support among BAFTA voters that it does across the Atlantic, while a win for “Slumdog” would entail a sweep for the film that, while certainly possible, isn’t really in BAFTA’s nature. “Casino Royale” won here two years ago, but the general sense of disappointment surrounding “Quantum of Solace” may factor in here. That leaves “The Dark Knight,” which fits the profile (loud, critically respected action film) of last year’s winner, “The Bourne Ultimatum.” Makes as much sense as anything.

Will win: “The Dark Knight”
Should win: “WALL-E”

Best Visual Effects
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”
“Iron Man”
“Quantum of Solace”

I think it’s safe to say both Indiana Jones and James Bond are just happy to be here, which leaves us with the three Oscar nominees. Meanwhile, I’m not sure the effects in “Iron Man” are painterly enough for BAFTA’s liking. Between the final two, I think the subtler work in “The Dark Knight” may stand a better chance with the British Academy than with the Americans, but ultimately, I think “Button”’s effects are too spectacular to ignore. Though it’s the joint nominations leader, I’m predicting BAFTA will throw it a solitary bone here.

Will win: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Should win: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

That’s the techs done. Check in tomorrow for a look at the remaining categories.