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In 2005, “Batman Begins” opened to just shy of $49 million. It’s fair to consider that a low number, because it came in behind the openings of such films as “2 Fast 2 Furious” and “8 Mile” of all things, even failing to best the $52 million mark of “Batman Forever” ten years prior.
However, the film went on to gross over $200 million at the box office, displaying considerable legs built on word of mouth and repeat viewings.
I think we all expect the film’s sequel, “The Dark Knight,” will open to larger numbers than that, but I’d like to get a gauge on just exactly where the readers expect this thing to drop.
I’m on the record all over the place as thinking the film would be the biggest box office draw of the year, but I truly didn’t expect the $300 million ceiling to be crashed by “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” and especially “Iron Man.” Now I’m not as sure, but I also can’t shake the feeling that there is an incredibly unknown element at work here. This thing could obviously be MASSIVE.
So tell us in this week’s poll: how much to you expect “The Dark Knight” to rake in when it opens in the U.S. on July 18? And if you want to be a real smarty pants and offer a specific number, tell us in the comments below. We’ll follow this up with a poll predicting the final box office tally for the film next week.
19 responses so far
1 7-06-2008 at 8:06 am
Jonathan Spuij said...
I’d guess something between 80-100 mln. opening.
Doing those screenings like a month before the release date was a golden move. The buzz is building as high as Sears tower.
It’s legs might be even bigger too with great word of mouth.
2 7-06-2008 at 8:28 am
Jon said...
I’ve seen trackings in the low 100′s. So I would say anywhere between 100-120.
3 7-06-2008 at 12:23 pm
Damned Martian said...
Tracking has been underesteimating openings for almost a year, so I’d say about 125-130. But the expectation for it still can grow in two weeks.
4 7-06-2008 at 4:47 pm
Pat said...
I would be so bold to say this is going to dial in at 155 million! You have to consider all the IMAX screens this things is playing on and the fact the tickets for IMAX are more expensive.
5 7-07-2008 at 10:05 am
mike said...
I think it will be just under Iron Man, and domestic gross will be under it as well. I know there will be a lot of multiple viewings, but the amount of younger kids who saw Iron Man with parents but will not be taken (or buy tickets for) to TDK, I think will give Iron Man the edge, this movie will still be huge though, who knows…
6 7-07-2008 at 8:06 pm
AJ said...
$160 grossing over $500 total (domestic and in millions)
7 7-07-2008 at 8:40 pm
Anthony Cortez said...
more than $145 million
because everyone is going to want to see LEDGER’S last performance. =)
8 7-11-2008 at 9:03 am
JaxMaxton said...
I once thought $60-$90mil, but the buzz is now huge. I think this will hit in the 14-34 demo really well, but not the young kiddies, and not older adults. I now say $80-$100 open with it hitting $300 mil over its run.
9 7-11-2008 at 8:27 pm
Jason said...
ARE YALL SERIOUS!!!!! The dark knight sold 8 times more than spiderman 3 which 151 million!!!! I’m going with 160-170 mil opening and finishing with over 380 mil. I thibk itl get at leat 450 mil. internationally which comes to about 820 mil. worldwide.
10 7-12-2008 at 3:04 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
Point me to the 8 times story, Jason. Didn’t hear that.
11 7-12-2008 at 4:43 am
Jonathan Spuij said...
Kris, there’s a story about it here:
http://www.darkhorizons.com/news08/080710c.php
12 7-15-2008 at 4:51 pm
Jason B. said...
With the buzz going on this movie and with the wide range of people who enjoyed Heath’s movies I could easily see other demos groups going to at least one showing, heck my gf wants to see this and I had to drag her to “Iron Man”. (not a big fan of comic book movies) This will easily top 120 Million. But I am going on a limb and giving an exact domestic gross for opening at $125.5 million and total worldwide at 375 million. Woudl even bet on it that, even here in vegas.
13 7-16-2008 at 1:53 pm
Todd said...
I believe this will set a new record or at least come in second. It should sail past $125 million.
I will go out on a limb and say it will make around $135 million in it’s opening weekend.
14 7-16-2008 at 3:29 pm
Jonathan Spuij said...
It bothers me a little many people are referring to it as Ledger’s final performance which it ain’t. Dr. Parnassus is.
Anyhow, it is getting crazier each day. Some people already calling the $150 mln. No way for that but 110-120 is my current guess. Very hard to estimate what it will do worldwide. May actually set a record there.
15 7-17-2008 at 10:07 am
Jason B. said...
I thought Dr. Parnassus was not completed when Heath passed, or was I mistaken? But either way this movie is going to make some serious money. Heard a news story here in vegas that Brendon theaters in the Palms is sold out from the midnight showing till Saturday night showings. That is crazy, I almost reconsidering my perdiction. But if this goes into wide release in Aussie land it will skyrocket the worldwide box office to probably the $400 million mark easily. Either way this will be the biggest draw of the summer hands down.
16 7-17-2008 at 8:10 pm
Fred said...
The buzz generated by Heath Ledger’s performance, the overwhelmingly positive reviews (Roger Ebert – 4 stars) and the untimely death of an actor just about to hit the stratosphere will catapult this movie into the top three weekend openers, if not the top.
$150 mil plus if the theaters can handle the ticket sales.
17 7-18-2008 at 12:04 pm
Jason B. said...
After reading some reviews and seeing soem fo the news reports for the first showings last night. I would think this is goign to beat Pirates of Carr 3 and top the 160+ million. I am thinking more along the line of 162.5 million for the 3 day total. Yes i am going back on my previous perdiction. I am heading to see it Sunday morning before the crowds. Good luck!
18 7-20-2008 at 10:47 am
zack said...
well, the numbers are in and batman did a 155 million opening. That is incredible. I am almost certain with the (extremely and over the top) positive reviews that word of mouth and multiple views with push this movie’s domestic theater total to at least 450 million. Probably more. The foreign will be that or higher so we could be looking at 1 billion in theater sales.