Regular visitors to his entertaining blog will know that Nathaniel Rogers has become the latest lunatic to enter the fray of (nearly) year-in-advance Oscar predictions, and as ever, they make for great reading. He has a number of pretty interesting hunches, some of which line up with my own (sight unseen, I also think “An Education” could emerge as a biggish deal) and some in a decidedly crazysexycool vein. (Terry Gilliam a Best Director nominee? I can’t see it, but I wish I could.)
For his top pick in the Best Picture category, however, Rogers sticks a little closer to the presumed script, guessing (like many others) that Clint Eastwood’s Mandela project is in the driver’s seat. He does, however, cannily note what too many other pundits have not — that the possibly-still-untitled film (we can only hope they find a more flavourful moniker than the bone-dry “The Human Factor”) is not strictly a Nelson Mandela biopic, but a sports drama of sorts:
The inspirational sports film is a regular staple of the multiplex. Most of them come and go with nary an Oscar blip. It’s kind of the ugly stepchild within the family of stories Oscar really loves, the true story period piece. Every once in a while, though, this overly populated genre does attract Academy eyeballs (Chariots of Fire, Seabiscuit, Hoosiers) and if there’s any pairing that comes with automatic prestige cred and appealing “important!” political background, it’d have to be Clint Eastwood and Morgan Freeman mixed with Nelson Mandela and South Africa. It’s guesswork. Maybe it’ll be too light for the Academy.
Having now read both Anthony Peckham’s script and John Carlin’s source book “Playing the Enemy,” I think Rogers might be on to something with the word “light” — though a serious-minded piece, the political content that you might expect in a film concerning arguably this era’s most revered politician is notably played down.
With the Best Actor race narrowing to a heated finish between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn, it’s easy to forget that Clint Eastwood was once very much part of the conversation. Of course, any such possibilities were sunk as “Gran Torino” became the first Eastwood in six years to come up empty on nomination morning. In a substantial