Is ‘The Class’ in a position to upset ‘Bashir?’

(UPDATE: I see Dave Karger is placing his money on “The Class” too. Interesting.)

Yesterday, Kris took a look at the Best Documentary Feature category, and wondered whether the winner there is quite the foregone conclusion that most people think. Supporting his argument was the category’s unusual rule that voters have to have seen all five contenders before casting their ballots –- a rule which can make the category less susceptible to consensus thinking than elsewhere, as voters are forced to make aesthetic decisions for themselves rather than letting the campaigns decide for them.

It’s a situation that can either consolidate a frontrunner’s appeal, or throw up a surprise as voters lose their hearts to a less-publicised gem. And while I agree with Kris that the latter is a possibility in the doc race, I’ve been wondering lately whether a similar upset could be brewing in the Best Foreign Language Film race –- which also requires voters to view all the nominees.

For some time, “Waltz With Bashir” has been installed as the de facto frontrunner in this race –- and with good reason. It’s vastly acclaimed (remember the National Society of Film Critics named it the year’s best film, period), wildly inventive, won a number of significant precursors (though it recently stumbled at the BAFTAs) and, crucially, has a cache of political currency that could seal the deal for the frequently high-minded voters in this category.

But it has a number of strikes against it too. It’s the first animated film ever to be nominated in this category, as well as the first documentary –- and the Academy isn’t exactly known for embracing the new. Given that voters in this field tend to be older Academy members, are we sure that they will take an animated effort seriously here? And are we sure that they won’t be put off by the film’s challenging, oblique structure? I’m not.

So, what is waiting in line to snatch the gold should “Waltz With Bashir” prove too opaque or too avant-garde for the voters? It is true that there isn’t really a bona fide crowdpleaser in the mix. “Revanche” is an icy, languidly paced revenge drama, while “The Baader Meinhof Complex” has a linear, accessible narrative, but not a lot of heart. I have yet to see “Departures,” but I’ve heard word that it’s too eccentric (not to mention low-profile) to take the prize.

And so we’re left with “The Class,” another critical darling (with a whopping Metacritic score of 94) that happens to be my personal favourite film of the year. Perhaps because of that, I was initially sceptical of the film’s Oscar chances, believing it to be too wordy and loosely structured for the Academy’s taste, with a docudrama aesthetic that would also represent a bit of a leap in this category.

But watching it again recently (with an audience that, unlike my first viewing of it at the London Film Festival, wasn’t cinephile-dominated) has caused me to have second thoughts. It’s an immensely funny, moving film, and it seemingly went over like gangbusters with a very mixed crowd. Like “Bashir,” it has its own sense of cultural immediacy and social relevance, but it’s a gentler, warmer film than Folman’s brilliant but occasionally (and perhaps necessarily) distancing work, and I’m starting to wonder whether Academy members might find it the more relatable contender.

Thinking all the way back to Cannes last year, is it at all significant that Laurent Cantet’s film was unanimously awarded the Palme d’Or by the Sean Penn-led jury, while Folman went home empty-handed? Probably not, but it’s a thought.

The Best Foreign Language Film category has a long history of small, emotionally-charged films upsetting more hotly fancied contenders. In 1990, the barely-known (and now barely-remembered) “Journey of Hope” toppled art-house sensation “Cyrano de Bergerac,” while in 2001, another French smash, “Amélie,” was surprised by Bosnia’s “No Man’s Land.” Most recently, many were taken off-guard when “The Lives of Others” leapfrogged crossover hit “Pan’s Labyrinth.” In all these cases, I would argue that the ultimate winner pulled ahead by tugging just a little bit harder at the voters’ heartstrings.

This year, we have a slightly different situation in that both “Waltz With Bashir” and “The Class” are moving, decidedly contemporary pieces of work. Neither one could be accused of serving up sentimentality or easy closure. It’s this similarity that leads me to think the race may be closer than many people give it credit for.

However, between Folman’s arms-length study of the (ongoing) despair of Middle Eastern conflict and Cantet’s close-up search for glimmers of hope in a future generation, I’m starting to think voters might find their heads equally engaged by both –- but their hearts more drawn to the latter.