Dave Karger, from in a blog post today at Entertainment Weekly’s Oscar Watch:
And now, his fascinating drama Gran Torino is indisputably the hot movie of the moment: It just raked in nearly $30 million in its first weekend of wide release, and it’s the film that most Oscar voters discovered last, screening it just before ballots were due…But with many voters said to be loving the film, could it eke out a Best Picture nod as well?
From my Off the Carpet column yesterday:
But the strangest whispers I’ve heard concern Clint Eastwood’s “Gran Torino,” opening wide over the weekend to exceptional box office and, some say, the real threat to “The Dark Knight”’s shifty #5 spot at the moment. The guilds haven’t necessarily reflected that, but then again, they didn’t reflect much on “Letters from Iwo Jima” either.
Just sayin’…
Comments
47 responses to “In the cards?”
I would be enraged if Gran Torino pushes out TDK. If it pushed out Benjamin Button, not so much.
Better this than “Wall-E” to push out TDK. I still don’t understand what people loved about that horrendous movie.
Gran Torino sucks. The Academy will be ridiculed forever if they give it a nod over TDK. If you’re going to bump TDK, give it to something most people think is great like The Wrestler or WALL-E. Don’t give it to another Clint movie just because it’s Clint.
Agreed. That would be an unmitigated failure on the Acedemy’s behalf. So what if it made $30 million last weekend? TDK pulled a record-breaking $160+, although I don’t think box office totals play into people’s decisions with the BP noms very often.
Even so, it would seem some are just looking for a reason to push TDK aside………….
I will take a Slumdog win if Gran Torino can be stopped. It isn’t just a film not worthy of Best Picture, but it is a terrible film.
I could somewhat accept Gran Torino for Frost/Nixon, I movie I admired but didn’t connect with like so many others did. Still though…a Gran Torino picture nod and then what 2 other noms total (Eastwood and the screenplay). I suppose it could land Editing, Score, Song, but it just doesn’t seem to fit in other categories well. I dunno, we will all know very soon…
@ Mark Kratina
Exactly my sentiment. People are looking for a reason why TDK doesn’t belong. My question is, why is it assumed that TDK holds the #5 spot? Frost/Nixon and Benjamin Button have seen much less support than TDK (especially BB). Kris? Your presence is requested :)
Mark,
Notice how box office only matters when it’s Oscar bait flicks? What a load of crap. Gran Torino wasn’t your typical indie flick and neither was Button. Both of them had wide releases with a lot of marketing behind them. They are mainstream movies.
Not happening…Best Actor will be its reward.
No one’s looking for a reason to do anything, Mark and J. We’re reporting the facts from the trenches, my friends, so accept or don’t. The film is in the mix.
I can’t stand hearing stories like this — ‘Gran Torino’ is a disaster. Amateurish, trite, bad supporting perfs, Eastwood self-parody, etc.
The blind faith that this country has in Clint is getting measured with this stinker.
And regarding the assumption that it’s the #5, it is my assumption and mine alone, but it is the film that has the least passion base, based on the voters I’ve talked to and second-hand discussions I’ve had about further reportage. Plenty votes to get in, mind you, but on the outside, not the inside.
J:
Exactly. We keep hearing how TDK is barely (if at all) holding onto the #5 spot, but unlike Button and F/N, it keeps garnering awards with all the critics’ end of the year awards picks.
It would seem to me, based on this, that TDK is at least holding onto the #3 spot behind Slumdog and possibly Milk, but that in all likelihood it may be the only film with a chance to unseat Slumdog.
I’ll flip the whole idea of “TDK is holding onto the #5 spot” on its head: if the Slumdog awards tidalwave gets to be too much for some people, and those same people realize TDK is the only realistic chance to unseat Slumdog, might TDK then be a surprise BP winner? Just one guy’s hypothesizing……………..
Kris- I wasn’t directing my post about people “looking for a reason” at you- not at all. I love the site and appreciate your giving us a forum to post. Just for the record………..
“it keeps garnering awards with all the critics’ end of the year awards picks.â€
Critics don’t vote for Oscars, and Dreamgirls did pretty well for itself in the guild circuit. That’s all I’m saying. This foregone conclusion stuff might be considered more delusional than a level-headed view of things.
Mark: No worries. Keep the discussion going. I’m all for it.
@ Kris
Thanks. Understood. I wonder why it holds the least passion base though ( although, realistically, I know the answer). Of the contenders, it’s clearly one of the 5 best pics of the year…apparently not so clearly. C’mon, academy!!!
Kris,
You think Frost/Nixon has more passion in the Academy than TDK? That’s a pretty sad commentary on the state of the Academy if you ask me.
Kris:
When I said critics, I was referring to the Guilds. I mean, PGA, DGA, WGA, as well as the editors and cinematographers all have TDK there in the final 5. Aren’t all 5 factions a voting bloc for the Academy Awards?
I don’t think it is a foregone conclusion on TDK being in the final 5, but wouldn’t you agree, as someone who still predicts TDK as a BP nom, that it is reasonable or at least, to use your words, “level-headed” to think TDK is going to be there in the end? As a fan of the film and of the character, would you not be disappointed if it got axed at this juncture?
gran torino just… embarrasses me.
D: Yes. But then again, I’m not a “Frost basher and can’t understand the mentality of “Frost” bashers. It’s a solid film, very easy to watch, nothing really negative to say about it. Sometimes, that kind of thing generates the most support. Being extremely agreeable like that.
Mark: I think it’s more than reasonable that TDK is in. I won’t change my Best Pic predictions from here on out. I’m merely reporting on “Gran Torino”‘s rise as a possible spoiler. And believe me, I’d be disappointed if it didn’t get in, but I stopped looking to the Academy for justice long ago.
Kris, the problem with Frost is that it’s predictable as hell. Big budget with a director who uses a certain Oscar bait style in all of his movies. Predictable. It’s not a bad movie. It’s actually a good one. But The Dark Knight is better than good. Not perfect by any stretch, but Slumdog sure as hell isn’t either and yet they’re giving that one a sweep.
I think TDK is fairly safe. It’s Milk or Frost/Nixon that might get bumped.
WALL-E is the only wildcard I think. Everywhere it is eligible, it is nominated or wins.
@ D
That was my thinking. From everything we’ve heard, TDK has a great base of passion. I don’t understand it either.
“Frost/Nixon” wasn’t anything special, but neither was “Michael Clayton”, “The Queen”, “Capote” or “Ray”. And they all made it in. Those were solid films, that worked more or less. So, I do think “Frost/Nixon” is just as likely to get in as any of those were.
“The Dark Knight” on the other hand is a difficult film – I suppose nobody who likes it will disagree – and thus much harder to truly support when you already have films like “Slumdog Millionaire” or “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” going into a similar direction.
Kris-
I understood what you were reporting RE: Torino and ultimately, no matter what TDK’s position might seem to me, ultimately you’re doing the grunt work talking to people in the industry- you know your stuff whereas I’m simply a dude sitting at his desk in the Midwest. It just seems BB and F/N would be lower on the totem pole than TDK. Thanks for listening.
Honestly, perhaps what we need is for all those old fogies in the Academy to die off to get rid of this prejudice against certain genres, including animated and comic book films. That’s right, I said it. Sometimes in order to move forward, that’s what has to happen.
I forgot to mention that I’m not trying to say that it won’t be nominated. I just think “F/N” is a safer bet than “TDK”.
I’d laugh if it happened simply because Clint is so cool.
Mark,
I would think Button has more support than TDK. Not nearly enough to beat Slumdog, but enough to be a solid lock whereas TDK is on shaky ground. Is it fair? No. But Button just screams “Oscar nomination” at everyone before they even watch the film. Paramount made damn sure of that with their excellent marketing over the last 6 months. It has that epic feel, it’s a period piece, and the cinematography is stellar even in the promo material.
D:
I made that comment on BB based solely on its back-to-back shutouts at the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes as well as some of the negative reviews (I think it is only at 72% on Rotten Tomatoes). But I agree with you that everything about BB, or at least how it has been marketed, screams nomination.
Mark,
Let’s just say I think people had made up their minds that they were going to nominate Button before the damn thing ever came out. Paramount’s marketing assured it. Reminds me of the likes of Aviator or Gangs of New York. Not Scorsese’s best work at all, but being a period piece with a long running time and an interesting main character seems to make these kind of movies a shoe-in long before they are released…IF the marketing is top notch. And it definitely was in Button’s case.
As for its shutouts, I was surprised by the Globe shutouts because they tend to suck up to the stars. I figured Pitt would win Actor and the film might even win BP. They decided to not starfuck this year so that was a cool surprise to see. Button will probably win some technical awards, possibly Cinematography. Otherwise I think Slumdog will sweep everything.
I think I’m the only person in the world who really really REEEEALLY liked Frost/Nixon…
it sits in my #2 spot of the year, and I’ve seen almost everything out there…
Andre, how does the rest of your top 5 shape up?
for starters, I meant “#3” instead of 2, sorry/
well, I haven’t really got a final top 5 yet, but here’s how it goes so far…
1- Hunger
2- Wall-E
3- Frost/Nixon
4- The Class
5- Synecdoche, NY
6- Slumdog Millionaire
7- Waltz With Bashir
8- The Dark Knight
9- The Wrestler
10- Revolutionary Road
I’ve yet to see Milk and some other stuff… it’s weird, other than the first two, I don’t really LOVE any of these films with a passion, so their positions in the rest of the Top 10 may change with some more thought.
Andre, that’s what everyone is saying. Lots of people like Frost/Nixon but nobody has it at #1.
oh I get that, but I’ve read some folks that really despise the film! I think that’s a bit odd, is all…
Ron Howard has proven an ability to put out consistently good movies, even if they aren’t earth shatteringly great.
By the way, nice list Andre.
If Clint Eastwood directed The Dark Knight and played Batman, how many Oscars would that movie get nominated for? All of them?
LOL Jason!
You could argue that Clint Eastwood was playing Batman, if you go by Christian Bale’s voice.
if he DOES get nominated, at least it’s for Gran Torino, not Changeling…
it’s lesser Eastwood, but I was mildly entertained (“mildly” being the most important word here).
but, yeah, it would suck if this got a bunch of nods.
‘Gran Torino’ was good, but I don’t think a $30 million opening weekend is going to be enough to get it in the BP race. I think there are other, more qualified films in the running that are either locked or have dibs on that fifth spot. ‘Letters from Iwo Jima’ felt more Oscar baity to me, so no surprise that it was able to get in. I think it’s too little, too late for Clint. He’ll MAYBE get an Best Actor nod, but not much else.
I’m sticking with my dream line-up (and what I’m predicting the line-up will be come January 22nd):
Slumdog Millionaire (lock)
The Dark Knight (lock)
Milk (solid bet)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (solid bet)
WALL-E (it has a fighting chance)
alt. Frost/Nixon, The Wrestler
In terms of precedents, this reminds me of Will Smith in The Pursuit of Happyness. Successful film at the end of the year that will likely garner Eastwood an Actor nomination, but I don’t think the movie itself has what it takes to knock out one of the big 5.
If I had to place a bet on a darkhorse right now, it would be Revolutionary Road.
I really don’t understand the hate for this film. It’s an absolutely marvelous summation by Eastwood of his career and the way it grapples with his persona and his legacy of violence is outstanding. It’s not a perfect film, but it certainly deserves as much of a shot as BUTTON or FROST/NIXON.
I don’t understand how you can be a Clint Eastwood fan and not appreciate this film, and I don’t know how you can be a movie lover and not at least appreciate Clint Eastwood. This film is as good in its own way as THE SHOOTIST. Whoever first made that comparison was absolutely on point.
I didn’t hate it, but I personally thought it was Eastwood’s weakest film in years, maybe ever.
It’s an actor’s showcase film, and nothing more.