In Contention

SUNDAY CENTS: Box office is a Festivus miracle!

Sherlock Holmes*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

Holy shit. There’s no other way to describe the box office this weekend, which may well go down as the most attended three days on record. Nearly 35 million tickets were sold and three films grossed more than $50 million each.

The number one movie for the weekend is James Cameron’s “Avatar.” I mentioned in the comments last week that it needed to drop a maximum of 35% to be considered a formidable box office force and a film with working positive word of mouth. Well, it dropped 3% to a virtually identical $75 million.

$212 mil in 10 days for the film is the 18th highest total for any film after that amount of time and you can expect one more massive weekend and top spot finish on the way. $400 million is a very real possibility now and Fox has to get a lot of credit for convincing audiences that this was a film that you simply had to see or risk being ostracized. (I know from experience.)

“Sherlock Holmes” came in a very strong second with $65.4 million for the weekend. Only “The Day After Tomorrow” has ever made more money as a non-#1 film, when it was beaten by the second weekend of “Shrek 2” in 2004.  It’s the sixth biggest December debut of all time and the film’s Friday gross set a record for a Christmas Day figure.

This is a phenomenal result for Warner Bros. and will be overshadowed a bit by “Avatar,” but a new franchise is surely born. Incidentally, it took this film two days to outgross Guy Ritchie’s five previous films combined.

Speaking of franchises, “Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel” wisely opened on Wednesday to maximize its earnings during this box office blizzard. Picking up a cool $27 million before the weekend even started and an additional $50 million over the three days ensures that Alvin and company will avoid the sophomore slump so many family sequels have succumbed to, Garfield, Babe and Stuart Little being just three examples. Executives at Fox are already working overtime to come up with a chipmunky pun for the word “three.”

The success doesn’t even end there as Universal’s “It’s Complicated” also took in a strong $22.1 million for fourth place. That’s already more than “Did You Hear About the Morgans?” has made in two weeks and sets the film up nicely for a solid January/awards season run.

“Up in the Air” expanded wide and took a decent $11.8 million from the weekend. That’s on par with the way most Clooney vehicles begin, but phenomenal reviews and awards prospects should keep it afloat towards a loftier total than George’s norm.

“Nine” also went wide…and fell flat with $5.5 million. Critically and now commercially, this is looking like a disaster for The Weinstein Company and I think Oscar watchers will think twice to proclaim anything Rob Marshall does from here on out an automatic contender.

Outside of that, “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” had a big debut in four screens but will never make it out of the arthouse, even with Heath Ledger and Johnny Depp.

I saw two movies this week, the first of which was “Up in the Air.” Surprise, surprise, I didn’t think it was any good. Jason Reitman is way too concerned with having his characters serve his topical story instead of the other way around and Anna Kendrick being in the conversation at all against Mo’Nique is laughable.

I also saw “Sherlock Holmes,” which was pure junk. The villain in “Star Trek” was more down to Earth. Why can’t they just trust their source material? Watson and Holmes had a great relationship and I would love to see Downey and Law solve a normal crime without a comic book villain and useless woman thrown in just to boost the box office.

What did you guys see? Whatever it was, seemingly it was in a packed house.  Here are the weekend’s top domestic grossers, courtesy of Exhibitor Relations:

Weekend of Friday, December 25, 2009

Comments

41 responses to “SUNDAY CENTS: Box office is a Festivus miracle!”

  1. Loyal Avatar

    Chad, Avatar should hit $400m around day 35 or so (The Dark Knight did it in 18 days, second fastest was Shrek 2 with 43 days).

    What’s your ceiling on Avatar?

  2. Harmonica Avatar
    Harmonica

    “Watson and Holmes had a great relationship and I would love to see Downey and Law solve a normal crime without a comic book villain and useless woman thrown in just to boost the box office.”

    My feelings exactly about the film, Chad. Mediocre, gold-digging action flick that has little resemblance with the actual character. It felt like a Guy Ritchie comic book movie.

  3. James D. Avatar

    Didn’t see anything this week. Nothing really interested me except Up in the Air, but considering your streak of correctly interpreting critical darlings, I will probably wait for DVD. I probably won’t go back to a theater until February 12 and The White Ribbon, honestly.

  4. Kristopher Tapley Avatar

    Regarding this undercooked business on Holmes and faithful adaptation:

    http://tinyurl.com/yl4f7m4

  5. Chad Hartigan Avatar
    Chad Hartigan

    I think the absolute ceiling for Avatar is $515 mil. What I actually think it’ll top out at is $440 mil.

  6. Ben M. Avatar
    Ben M.

    Saw A Single Man, Sherlock Holmes, and Avatar a second time (this time in Imax)- Man and Sherlock were okay but not amazing films, while Avatar continued to impress and I’m glad it is doing so well. Also happy that audiences are ignoring Nine (which I saw in its limited release) as the film is a total mess and hopefully the bad box office combined with the reviews will sink its BP nomination chances.

  7. Michael Avatar
    Michael

    I saw Nine, Up in the Air, and The Young Victoria this past weekend. Nine was pretty to look at and moderately well acted but had no memorable musical numbers and I’ve frankly already forgotten most of it. Up in the Air was slick and well filmed and extremely well acted (especially Vera Farmiga) but it left me feeling cold. A friend that I saw the film summed it up best: its attempts at analyzing the current economic situation were a bit glib & unsubstantial and felt like a Hollywood bubble version of the economic climate. I really enjoyed The Young Victoria, especially the performances by Emily Blunt and Rupert Friend, but I felt like it lacked style or a defining characteristic to make it stand out above most other costume dramas. Every film I saw in the theater (even Nine) was either extremely packed or sold out completely. I am planning on seeing Avatar again next week for the third time b/c I absolutely loved that movie.

  8. aaron Avatar
    aaron

    i saw avatar xmas eve and . . . *keeps comments to self*

  9. Rafael Avatar
    Rafael

    I saw The Blind Side and I thought it was great. I also saw Avatar again and I enjoyed it even more the second time. I watched Adventureland on dvd and I loved the movie.

  10. Rob hackett Avatar
    Rob hackett

    Disagree about your interpretation of Reitman’s intentions regarding the film. However, I think people are receiving it similarly, but I believe that’s because Reitman isn’t quite so easy on his characters, and the film’s trajectory seems aimed at the protagonist’s salvation, when in fact, it’s more his validation. In terms of the “topical,” aspect, well, I think Reitman does a nice job at limiting the economy to the backdrop…and as far as the agenda regarding digitalization limiting interpersonal relations…that seemed the real topic.

  11. tony rock Avatar
    tony rock

    People need to realize that the economic thoroughline in Up in the Air is merely a backdrop for Clooney’s character. The focus of the film is Ryan Bingham, not the failing economy. It’s not trying to analyze our current situation in a substantial way, it’s analyzing these characters.

  12. Me. Avatar
    Me.

    I really don’t get the “Up in the Air” hype at all. It seems to be getting all this acclaim because of the economic crisis but please, that’s not the central plot of the film, it’s about an isolated man who realizes that the best moments in life are the ones were you make a human connection. Having such a touching theme, the film left me in a cold and dull mood, I felt nothing throughout, I stopped caring after a while. George Clooney did not give an Oscar worthy performance. He was regular, not outstanding. Also, am I the only one who thinks Anna Kendrick was terrible in the scene were she finds out her boyfriend broke up with her?

  13. Me. Avatar
    Me.

    Also, I really want to see “Avatar” again. I really liked it when I first saw it but it’s the type of film that gets better after each viewing.

  14. Bob McBob Avatar
    Bob McBob

    It’s amazing that with the film industry making so much money that some people within the industry are still struggling to find work. How could this be?

  15. Chad Hartigan Avatar
    Chad Hartigan

    To elaborate a bit more, I felt like the main storyline was standard screenwriting 101 stuff. Isolated man learns the value of human connection with every standard story beat along the way. A few moments here and there with Kendrick or Farmiga were nice but any time the film had a chance to go somewhere really interesting it rerouted back to the cliche. I couldn’t believe they actually went through with a scene where he gives up mid-speech at his big Vegas gig. And then cynically tossing in the “twist” of Farmiga’s character as if that makes it all original. That’s gonna win somebody a screenplay Oscar these days?

    I suppose it’s a matter of taste but when everything comes together so pat, I cringe. The woman’s suicide, the timing of passing his mileage milestone, the fact that his estranged sister happens to have a problem that can be solved by frequent flier miles. The good stuff was far outweighed by the calculated in my opinion.

    And you’re allowed to tell any story you want but if you want to say something about how the economic crisis is affecting Americans, I don’t think doing it through some rich prick who flies around the country in luxury is a great approach, no matter how many little snippets of common folk you throw in along the way.

    Still, it’s much better than Slumdog Millionaire so awards season won’t be quite so frustrating this year.

  16. david Avatar
    david

    Chad…why are you such a curmudgeon anyway??

    While I disagree with most of your opinions, I find your disagreeable nature most endearing.

    Sunday Cents wouldn’t be the same without you my friend. It would just be a bunch of boring box-office numbers.

  17. cineJAB Avatar

    I saw…
    Avatar and it was packed
    Nine and it was empty
    A Single Man and it was packed

  18. Michael Avatar
    Michael

    Although my favorite film of the year is Inglourious Basterds, I know that it doesn’t stand a chance at winning the oscar for best picture. However, unlike last year where a boring and lame (imho) film won everything and there was no sense of surprise, I actually feel like this year there is more excitement and more worthy films that I would not have a problem if they won. I really think it is going to go to Avatar, but if that doesn’t win then I wouldn’t mind if it went to Up In The Air, The Hurt Locker, or even Precious. I don’t think any of those are the best movies of the year but they are the most likely to be voted by the Academy and for once in a very long time, I am actually fine with any of them winning.

  19. cineJAB Avatar

    just so you know, Nine is gonna be the headscratcher in the Best Picture field. Thank you Harvey Weinstein.

  20. Maxim Avatar
    Maxim

    Yes, thank you Harvey Weinstein. Non-sarcastically.

  21. cineJAB Avatar

    @Maxim, don’t get me wrong, their are parts of that movie I really enjoyed. The parts with Marion Cotillard, Judi Dench, and Nicole Kidman. Also the cinematography was pretty fantastic.

    speaking of cinematography… WHY is A Single Man not even getting mentioned in that conversation?

  22. Chad Hartigan Avatar
    Chad Hartigan

    @cineJAB Hopefully because it has the year’s most annoying and obtrusive cinematography

  23. RichardA Avatar
    RichardA

    Ditto on Chad’s analysis of Up In The Air. It’s a mess of a movie.

  24. Speaking English Avatar
    Speaking English

    A mess of a movie. Sometimes I wonder if people really understand what they’re saying. It’s one thing to dislike it, but it’s anything but a mess. Slick, sharp, smart, and beautifully poignant, yes. A mess, no.

  25. cineJAB Avatar

    the shot of the doors closing on Julianne Moore and the overhead shot of Firth reaching into his bag at the bank would be close to the top of my list of favorite shots of the year, and that’s just to name a couple. Was the saturation of shots a little much? Yeah, but I can’t think of a prettier movie that takes place on Earth.

  26. Speaking English Avatar
    Speaking English

    ***but I can’t think of a prettier movie that takes place on Earth.***

    “Days of Heaven,” perhaps? “The New World?” “Far from Heaven?” “Barry Lyndon?” “The Assassination of Jesse James…?”

  27. red_wine Avatar
    red_wine

    It amazes me that people can be so impervious to bad writing. But Transformers 2 made 400 million, so there’s no reason Avatar shouldn’t.

    I’m really surprised at Avatar’s numbers, in some way it was coming, but I never thought there would be another Titanic like thing happening. These numbers are sensational to say the least. Chad, it would certainly be interesting to see your Top 10 for 2009. I’m all for being Oscar-antagonistic, but you put me in the shade!

  28. cineJAB Avatar

    wow oh wow oh wow, I totally meant prettier movie this year.

  29. Craig Avatar
    Craig

    Oh boo, everything comes together too easily. It’s not like it’s a movie or anything.

  30. Kevin M. Avatar
    Kevin M.

    What happened to the Inception trailer coming out on christmas???

  31. Guy Lodge Avatar
    Guy Lodge

    I watched “Up in the Air” again to see if I could warm to it more than I did the first time, but the film came off worse than I remembered. There’s an intelligence to the way it’s put together, but I found it mostly thin and self-satisfied — easily Reitman’s weakest work to date. So I’m kind of with Chad on this one.

    And Me., you’re not alone: I like a number of moments in Anna Kendrick’s performance (her smug “Glocal” speech in particular), but that breakdown scene is badly misjudged — and would disqualify her from awards consideration, in my mind. Vera Farmiga is handily the best in show.

  32. Andrew2 Avatar
    Andrew2

    I dont get the surprise at Avatar’s BO. It has had as much hype and publicity as you could possibly get. I wonder though whether the Academy will see that they already awarded Cameron for Titanic…

  33. Steven Kar Avatar
    Steven Kar

    Comment #5:
    “I think the absolute ceiling for Avatar is $515 mil. What I actually think it’ll top out at is $440 mil.”

    Wow, that’s generous, and I have no problem with it. I’d like THE DARK KNIGHT to be beaten since I thought it was utter garbage, but I believe the absolute max for AVATAR would be 490 or so, and that’s if all the planets are aligned. A more reasonable max gross would be around 440.

    However, worldwide, it will become the second biggest movie after TITANIC, thankfully beating the atrocious TDK and DEAD MAN’S CHEST.

  34. Gioconda Avatar
    Gioconda

    From Harmonica:

    “My feelings exactly about the film, Chad. Mediocre, gold-digging action flick that has little resemblance with the actual character. It felt like a Guy Ritchie comic book movie.”

    You’re wrong, it has everything to do with the orignal ACD pulp stories tailored by Guy Ritchie usual style. I loved it.

  35. RichardA Avatar
    RichardA

    I mean that Up In The Air is a mess and it is the worst Reitman movie. Stopping the shark speech and running off was laughable.

  36. Craig Avatar
    Craig

    How anyone can think that Up in the Air is worse than Juno is beyond me. Juno was one of the worst films to ever get a best picture nomination.

  37. Kyle Avatar
    Kyle

    Guy & Chad

    You put my thoughts about “Up in the Air” and Anna Kendrick into words, I concur with everything you both mentioned. This year’s most overrated film and performance.

  38. Chad Hartigan Avatar

    I need to see Police, Adjective and The White Ribbon this week and then I’ll be able to formulate a top 10 of the year. Hopefully Kris will let me post it up.

  39. Mike Avatar
    Mike

    Someone on this site made a list of the top grossing original movies of the decade a while ago. Cast Away was at the top. I think Avatar can now be added to that list.

  40. Chad Hartigan Avatar

    Mike- That was me and yes, Avatar will by far be top of that list.

  41. Matt T Avatar
    Matt T

    I loved Up in the Air. Outside of the cliche scene where he gives up his Vegas speech and runs off, (which I’ll admit was just terrible) I thought the story was actually very well done. I guess I’m just bad at watching movies or something, but the Vera twist at the end really got me, and I thought Kendrick completely stole the show.