@Dustin: You do realize that there are two screenplay categories, right?
@Joel: No, it’s definitely not. Early fanaticism isn’t equivocal to the cumulative ratings in the end. Like red_wine said, it’s not in the Top 20. Looking at Metacritic’s scores for this year so far, it is definitely *not* in the Top 15.
I think “Precious” being shoved down the throats of many is cause enough for the Academy to say no. It might be a repeat of a “Brokeback Mountain” fiasco, where early traction is behind it, but AMPAS voters say “pfft”.
With Oprah and Tyler Perry TELLING them how amazing it is, it’s likely to turn off people. Oscar voters are notorious for hating to be told what to do (most of the time).
Salma
Up in the air.
Humorous dramedy.
Academy friendly.
And George Clooney.
Need I say more?
Morgan
I simply can’t believe the buzz over “Precious” is going to hold out until Oscar time, especially if non-Oprah audiences don’t go see it, which is quite possible. The buzz on the movie has started too soon.
Again, I think we’re due for a late entry in the sweepstakes and I’m wondering if that film is “Agora.”
“Precious” peaked too early and won’t connect with the majority of Oscar voters. The Academy has already shown that it loves Jason Reitman; he was nominated for Best Director for one of the weakest Best Picture nominees in years. We also know they love da Clooney. Combine that with the face that “Up in the Air” is more timely and culturally relevant than any of the other possible nominees, and I think we have our winner.
Scott
FACT, damn it, not face.
Derek 8-Track
@ Scott,
How is up in the air culturally relevant? I haven’t seen it and can’t figure it out from the trailer.
@Derek: Try reading the plot summary–it’s all about job losses and our dwindling economy, in this financial crisis. Clooney’s character’s job is to fire people when other companies are, basically, too chickenshit to do it themselves. I think he explicitly stated that in one UITA trailer, in fact. You must’ve only seen the teasers.
Brian
Of movies that have been seen, it’s Up in the Air vs. Precious. Everything else is an also ran, no matter what wishing there might be.
Of the three big guns (Lovely Bones, Nine, Invictus) left to see, any of those could win it.
“For those saying that they believe Precious is going to win have obviously not seen the film. ”
You say that as if everyone should have seen it by now. Not everyone has been deemed worthy enough to see it yet.
Patryk
Best Picture: “Nine”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Possible upset: “Up in the Air”
Also ran: “The Hurt Locker” Has any film with such a low box office total ever won Best Picture?
NOT nominated: Lee Daniels
Mike
Nine
The Lovely Bones
or
Up in the Air
I’m just not seeing Precious winning. Kris seeing as you have seen Crazy Heart, do you think it has a shot at winning or even being nominated for best picture?
Maxim
I will only say this after last year’s Awards Ceremony I have little faith that the ultimate winner would actually be any good.
I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
Personally though, I think it would be really cool to see a woman win a Best Director award.
@Patryk: You have to also consider the extremely modest budget that “The Hurt Locker” had rather than its total in comparison to others.
Andrew
Up in the Air for Picture.
The Hurt Locker for Director.
Totally late for the conversation and it’s been said before, but “Precious” will be too divisive. I hate to say it, but its campaign will be marred by Carey-Perry-Monique backlash. Look for it to pick up some other awards – Supporting Actress, and maybe even Actress and Adapted Screenplay.
“The Hurt Locker” will turn out to be the critical darling of the year, but box office will destroy its chances at the big prize. It will pick up a hefty batch, though, with Director, Cinematography, Editing, and Sound Editing, with possible wins for Original Screenplay and Sound Mixing.
“Invictus” will walk away empty handed, the victim of “we’ve already given you all awards before”. Matt Damon will have to wait another year.
“An Education” will be too ‘European’ to win the big award, but will fight for Actress.
“Avatar” will fall short of expectations, killing it’s chance at the big award. It will also be seen as a masterpiece of visual effects and little else; therefore, it’s sole award will be Visual Effects.
“Nine” will pull a “Dreamgirls”. Comparisons to “Chicago” and “8 1/2” will dullen it’s appeal, although it may walk away with some craft awards, namely Art Direction and Costume.
“Up” will have unfavourable comparisons with the un-nominated “Wall-E”, and the category bias. However, it will still walk away with Animated, Score, and maybe even Original Screenplay.
“Inglourious Basterds” is too violent and divisive, and will certainly offend many voters who will accuse it of disrespect. However, there’s no way they’ll give the Supporting Actor award to any one else after that performance.
That is, until they see Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”, which will represent the film’s sole win. I suspect this may be the biggest threat right now, and may change the game completely when it unveils in December.
So why “Up in the Air”? Respect for Reitman and Clooney, broad appeal, universal raves, little controversy, box office and no unfavourable comparisons. It doesn’t have to compete against any source material, Clooney is a Hollywood god, and Reitman was a surprise nomination a few years ago. He’s three for three in quality, and with the past year of economic disaster, some comedy will be appreciated. But what’s strange about this? It doesn’t look like it’s a threat in any other category. It will be battling for every other award it gets nominated in. Do we have a BP with a single award, maybe two for Screenplay?
Picture: Up in the Air
Director: The Hurt Locker
Actor: Colin Firth, A Single Man
Actress: Gabby Sidibe, Precious
Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci, Lovely Bones
Supporting Actress: Monique, Precious
Original Screenplay: Up? The Hurt Locker?
Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Editing: The Hurt Locker
Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
Art Direction: Nine
Costume: Nine
Makeup: District 9
Score: Up
Song: The Princess and the Frog
Sound Mixing:
Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker
Visual Effects: Avatar
Animated: Up
Jane
It Nine, Invictus or Lovely Bones meets expectations (80+ score on Rotten Tomatoes), any one of them could be the big winner. All three have Oscar favorites at the helm and on screen, will probably get some acting buzz, and are the types of films Oscar voters love.
If those three don’t live up, then I see Precious or Up in the Air winning.
I don’t think Avatar is even getting nominated; predicting a win is a little delusional. I think it would have to get like over 95 on Rotten Tomatoes to have the slightest chance of winning. I see the Academy easily choosing Inglourious Bastereds for the “popular” box office slot over Avatar.
DHE
Agora has broken crazy box office records in Spain for some reason, which is why suddenly U.S. distribs are interested again. So who knows, maybe it’s all in the translation. The movie has had 20 minutes cut for a U.S. release, so maybe that’s considered an improvement.
Sawyer
Precious or Invictus. I’d say it’s a toss up.
Sawyer
Precious or Invictus. It’s a complete tossup right now.
There are still a bunch of movies that haven’t been released yet, but I think the winner will be Up In the Air and 2nd option is The Lovely Bones, 3rd is probably A Serious Man.
Joe W
I have no idea.
Up in the Air is a fantastic film and I would be perfectly happy with it winning but I just don’t see it as a Best Picture.
Precious seems to small to win it (nomination is the reward)
Invictus seems to have a been there, done that feel to it (not to say it won’t be great). I just think it would be a boring Best Picture winner and voters want a movie that gets them excited
The Lovely Bones could be outstanding but I don’t know if the mix of thriller with the fantasy world will work for a lot of Academy voters
The Hurt Locker feels like Precious in that it is too small of a movie to win it big
Nine feels more like Dreamgirls to me than Chicago
So maybe Avatar if it really blows everyone away and is a box office titanic (just the pun) and well reviewed by critics
So I would say it could be
– Avatar
– Up in the Air
– The Lovely Bones
Outside threats: Precious, The Hurt Locker, Invictus
Comments
124 responses to “What is going to win Best Picture and why?”
@Dustin: You do realize that there are two screenplay categories, right?
@Joel: No, it’s definitely not. Early fanaticism isn’t equivocal to the cumulative ratings in the end. Like red_wine said, it’s not in the Top 20. Looking at Metacritic’s scores for this year so far, it is definitely *not* in the Top 15.
I think “Precious” being shoved down the throats of many is cause enough for the Academy to say no. It might be a repeat of a “Brokeback Mountain” fiasco, where early traction is behind it, but AMPAS voters say “pfft”.
With Oprah and Tyler Perry TELLING them how amazing it is, it’s likely to turn off people. Oscar voters are notorious for hating to be told what to do (most of the time).
Up in the air.
Humorous dramedy.
Academy friendly.
And George Clooney.
Need I say more?
I simply can’t believe the buzz over “Precious” is going to hold out until Oscar time, especially if non-Oprah audiences don’t go see it, which is quite possible. The buzz on the movie has started too soon.
Again, I think we’re due for a late entry in the sweepstakes and I’m wondering if that film is “Agora.”
I thought “Agora” is supposed to be a bomb. Weren’t there tons of early pans?
The Hurt Locker, and Bigelow best director :)
“Precious” peaked too early and won’t connect with the majority of Oscar voters. The Academy has already shown that it loves Jason Reitman; he was nominated for Best Director for one of the weakest Best Picture nominees in years. We also know they love da Clooney. Combine that with the face that “Up in the Air” is more timely and culturally relevant than any of the other possible nominees, and I think we have our winner.
FACT, damn it, not face.
@ Scott,
How is up in the air culturally relevant? I haven’t seen it and can’t figure it out from the trailer.
Jester: You sense wrong. It’s a four star work of art in my mind.
@Derek: Try reading the plot summary–it’s all about job losses and our dwindling economy, in this financial crisis. Clooney’s character’s job is to fire people when other companies are, basically, too chickenshit to do it themselves. I think he explicitly stated that in one UITA trailer, in fact. You must’ve only seen the teasers.
Of movies that have been seen, it’s Up in the Air vs. Precious. Everything else is an also ran, no matter what wishing there might be.
Of the three big guns (Lovely Bones, Nine, Invictus) left to see, any of those could win it.
@Other James D.
Yep. thanks.
“For those saying that they believe Precious is going to win have obviously not seen the film. ”
You say that as if everyone should have seen it by now. Not everyone has been deemed worthy enough to see it yet.
Best Picture: “Nine”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Possible upset: “Up in the Air”
Also ran: “The Hurt Locker” Has any film with such a low box office total ever won Best Picture?
NOT nominated: Lee Daniels
Nine
The Lovely Bones
or
Up in the Air
I’m just not seeing Precious winning. Kris seeing as you have seen Crazy Heart, do you think it has a shot at winning or even being nominated for best picture?
I will only say this after last year’s Awards Ceremony I have little faith that the ultimate winner would actually be any good.
I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
Personally though, I think it would be really cool to see a woman win a Best Director award.
@Patryk: You have to also consider the extremely modest budget that “The Hurt Locker” had rather than its total in comparison to others.
Up in the Air for Picture.
The Hurt Locker for Director.
Totally late for the conversation and it’s been said before, but “Precious” will be too divisive. I hate to say it, but its campaign will be marred by Carey-Perry-Monique backlash. Look for it to pick up some other awards – Supporting Actress, and maybe even Actress and Adapted Screenplay.
“The Hurt Locker” will turn out to be the critical darling of the year, but box office will destroy its chances at the big prize. It will pick up a hefty batch, though, with Director, Cinematography, Editing, and Sound Editing, with possible wins for Original Screenplay and Sound Mixing.
“Invictus” will walk away empty handed, the victim of “we’ve already given you all awards before”. Matt Damon will have to wait another year.
“An Education” will be too ‘European’ to win the big award, but will fight for Actress.
“Avatar” will fall short of expectations, killing it’s chance at the big award. It will also be seen as a masterpiece of visual effects and little else; therefore, it’s sole award will be Visual Effects.
“Nine” will pull a “Dreamgirls”. Comparisons to “Chicago” and “8 1/2” will dullen it’s appeal, although it may walk away with some craft awards, namely Art Direction and Costume.
“Up” will have unfavourable comparisons with the un-nominated “Wall-E”, and the category bias. However, it will still walk away with Animated, Score, and maybe even Original Screenplay.
“Inglourious Basterds” is too violent and divisive, and will certainly offend many voters who will accuse it of disrespect. However, there’s no way they’ll give the Supporting Actor award to any one else after that performance.
That is, until they see Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”, which will represent the film’s sole win. I suspect this may be the biggest threat right now, and may change the game completely when it unveils in December.
So why “Up in the Air”? Respect for Reitman and Clooney, broad appeal, universal raves, little controversy, box office and no unfavourable comparisons. It doesn’t have to compete against any source material, Clooney is a Hollywood god, and Reitman was a surprise nomination a few years ago. He’s three for three in quality, and with the past year of economic disaster, some comedy will be appreciated. But what’s strange about this? It doesn’t look like it’s a threat in any other category. It will be battling for every other award it gets nominated in. Do we have a BP with a single award, maybe two for Screenplay?
Picture: Up in the Air
Director: The Hurt Locker
Actor: Colin Firth, A Single Man
Actress: Gabby Sidibe, Precious
Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci, Lovely Bones
Supporting Actress: Monique, Precious
Original Screenplay: Up? The Hurt Locker?
Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Editing: The Hurt Locker
Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
Art Direction: Nine
Costume: Nine
Makeup: District 9
Score: Up
Song: The Princess and the Frog
Sound Mixing:
Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker
Visual Effects: Avatar
Animated: Up
It Nine, Invictus or Lovely Bones meets expectations (80+ score on Rotten Tomatoes), any one of them could be the big winner. All three have Oscar favorites at the helm and on screen, will probably get some acting buzz, and are the types of films Oscar voters love.
If those three don’t live up, then I see Precious or Up in the Air winning.
I don’t think Avatar is even getting nominated; predicting a win is a little delusional. I think it would have to get like over 95 on Rotten Tomatoes to have the slightest chance of winning. I see the Academy easily choosing Inglourious Bastereds for the “popular” box office slot over Avatar.
Agora has broken crazy box office records in Spain for some reason, which is why suddenly U.S. distribs are interested again. So who knows, maybe it’s all in the translation. The movie has had 20 minutes cut for a U.S. release, so maybe that’s considered an improvement.
Precious or Invictus. I’d say it’s a toss up.
Precious or Invictus. It’s a complete tossup right now.
There are still a bunch of movies that haven’t been released yet, but I think the winner will be Up In the Air and 2nd option is The Lovely Bones, 3rd is probably A Serious Man.
I have no idea.
Up in the Air is a fantastic film and I would be perfectly happy with it winning but I just don’t see it as a Best Picture.
Precious seems to small to win it (nomination is the reward)
Invictus seems to have a been there, done that feel to it (not to say it won’t be great). I just think it would be a boring Best Picture winner and voters want a movie that gets them excited
The Lovely Bones could be outstanding but I don’t know if the mix of thriller with the fantasy world will work for a lot of Academy voters
The Hurt Locker feels like Precious in that it is too small of a movie to win it big
Nine feels more like Dreamgirls to me than Chicago
So maybe Avatar if it really blows everyone away and is a box office titanic (just the pun) and well reviewed by critics
So I would say it could be
– Avatar
– Up in the Air
– The Lovely Bones
Outside threats: Precious, The Hurt Locker, Invictus