(From here on out, my nomination predictions will be updated weekly to coincide with this column. Check them out here.)
Tweed-coated and steam-breathed, winter formally arrived in my corner of the world this week, and with it the slightly grim realization that just over seven weeks remain of this year.
I say “grim” not so much because I’m unprepared for the rigors of Christmas shopping or because 90% of my year’s to-do list remains undone—though neither of those truths are helping—but because, from a film perspective, 2010 feels to me like it needs at least another couple of months to find itself.
Yesterday, I found myself battling with two lists of 10 films: the first, my own provisional best-of-year collective, the second, my revised predictions for the Best Picture Oscar nominees. Neither list, in my experience, has ever had much to do with the other (of course, I’ll take that back should the Academy reveal hidden depths of enthusiasm for, say, “White Material” on nomination morning), but both the rough drafts I wound up with had one thing in common: they’re badly in need of a late-breaking great film or two.
My personal Top 10 will be fine: in addition to the season’s remaining big-screen attractions, I have a cushion of catch-up screeners to fall back on as I search for an extra diamond or two. The Academy’s 10 I’m a little more worried about: with an (admittedly green) good-not-great verdict settling over David O. Russell’s “The Fighter” following last night’s premiere, it’s left to the Coen Brothers’ reworking of a B-grade western to class up what could end up being a rather narrow Best Picture race. The rest of the winter release schedule looks alarmingly lean on plausible contenders – perhaps put off by last year’s high-profile December flop-jam of “The Lovely Bones,” “Invictus” and “Nine,” the studios have this year opted for earlier reveals.
All of which should be encouraged: I’m all for abolishing the idea that tasty prestige fare should be predominantly a Christmastime treat. But as I glance over the seen films in contention thus far, I’m not convinced that the wealth has been spread so much as cut: I see a number of respectable films in the running, a few good ones, but not much that feels fresh or revelatory.
Everybody likes “Toy Story 3,” sure, but forgive me if the third (and, by degrees, weakest) instalment in a beloved and bank-making franchise feels like a tepid choice for film of the year. “Inception?” A great idea, incompletely executed, from a director who has made more emotionally satisfying films. “127 Hours?” You know where I stand on that one, but even if I liked it more, it’d still strike me as a small-scale directorial workout from a filmmaker capable of bigger things. Even my favorite of the by-consensus “locked” nominees, “The Kids Are All Right,” is more supremely well-served dim sum than richly layered banquet; on the heels of recent champs like “The Hurt Locker” or “No Country for Old Men,” any of these would be minor victors by comparison.
Of course, the smart money isn’t on any of the above emerging victorious, but as I’ve said before, the presumed frontrunners don’t suggest a race for the ages either: I expect the smart, melancholy “The Social Network” will have more lasting impact than the trim anecdotal history of “The King’s Speech,” but I also suspect David Fincher has made more indelible films.
This, of course, is merely one man’s take; others have opined that 2010 is a vintage year, and some of them are even speaking from an awards-watcher’s vantage. But it does appear that some of the studios, opportunistically eyeing those extra five slots, might be perceiving a certain softness in the race: cue talk of Paramount launching a full-on campaign for Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island,” a well-crafted auteur doodle released to mixed reviews back in the wilds of last winter.
Meanwhile, given how much I prefer it to many of the titles seen as safely “in,” I’m compelled to support the dark-horse buzz for Ben Affleck’s “The Town”—a stonking meat-and-potatoes entertainment held back from greatness by some narrative glitches—while simultaneously wishing we could reach a little higher, or bolder, for alternative ballot-fillers: a formally courageous indie like “Blue Valentine,” for example, or any one standout in this robust year for documentaries. If the innovation of The Ten merely leads to voters scrambling to fill space with profitable studio chancers that “will do,” then I can only hope it’s a very short-lived experiment indeed.
As I so often do, then, I find myself looking pleadingly to the sharper, stranger corners of the arthouse (and then, even more pleadingly, back to the Academy) to color up the lower reaches of the category. Right now, of the seven I’ve seen, only one of my current projected Best Picture group feels like it’s touching honest-to-God greatness: Mike Leigh’s “Another Year” sees a premier auteur on peak form, unpicking penetrating human questions that acquire more possible answers with further viewings, and yet it’s a sizable question mark even for a nomination.
“Black Swan,” similarly, finds one of our most idiosyncratic and adventurous contemporary filmmakers exploring new stylistic territory and coming up trumps; it’s the kind of exciting (and even semi-mainstream) creative leap that an institution dedicated principally to the celebration of American cinema should recognize without hesitation, yet while other pundits confidently predict its nomination, I keep wondering if voters who have resisted Darren Aronofsky up until now will be persuaded by this ornate, highly-strung oddity.
I’m trading, of course, in a lot of “ifs” – the only choice one has when discussing the Oscar race before any of the relevant precursors have chimed in yet. We have a lot of waiting and watching to do in the next seven weeks, during which time we should resist the temptation to pile the expectations of an entire season upon “True Grit”—lest it turn out to be anything less than a religious experience—and expand the conversation of worthy contenders before the mechanics of the season contract it for us.
[Photos: Paramount, Walt Disney Pictures, Fox Searchlight]
Comments
58 responses to “THE LONG SHOT: Waiting for the miracle”
BLUE VALENTINE BLUE VALENTINE BLUE VALENTINE.
Yes! BLUE VALENTINE BLUE VALENTINE BLUE VALENTINE.
I’d much rather see Blue Valentine and Another Year in the 10 Best Picture Oscar list than Toy Story 3 or The Kids Are All Right.
And I’m convinced that about two years from now The Social Network is going to less delectable than it does now, mainly because you don’t really love many of the characters. So how many times do you want to watch this movie, really?
What the hell is “Valentine Blue”?
Davey,
I don’t love any of the characters in There Will Be Blood and I have seen it numerous times, each time as good as the last.
I have seen few of the docs this year but none of them seem to be as good as The Cove and if that did not get in I doubt any will this year.
Another Year has to be in. There is just no logical explanation for why it would not. It should be one of the top five, let alone top ten. By top five I mean Leigh should get a directing nod as well.
“And I’m convinced that about two years from now The Social Network is going to less delectable than it does now, mainly because you don’t really love many of the characters. So how many times do you want to watch this movie, really?”
Not so. Mark Zuckerberg is the ultimate evolution of the “magnificent bastard.” Eduardo, though foolish, is a Max Schumacher-ian direct line to the souls of the audience. Sean Parker is a hilariously empty schmoozer. Just because they’re reprehensible doesn’t mean that you can’t love ’em.
If that logic worked, I’d have never gone back to Glengarry Glen Ross. Instead of returning to it more frequently than most films.
Of the films in contention this year(that I have seen), I liked Toy Story 3 and The Kids Are All Right the most. Of course there is no major work this year like you said of the scale of The Hurt Locker or No Country but I think we could afterall have a revolutionary winner in Toy Story 3, finally rewarding a class of films that have been indiscriminately discriminated against. And I think this itself is very strong, better than the second one, and good enough to stand the passage of time as opposed to say something like Slumdog Millionaire. Needless to say it is also hugely admired and universally beloved.
The Social Network is very good and all but not an epoch making classic that it was meant to be or other people want it to be. Even Another Year is vanilla and Inception would make a poor choice for Best Picture of the year.
The critics need not worry though, they will have choice of several major works to anoint as the year’s best, chief among them the epic French masterpiece A Prophet (which is sadly ineligible for the Oscars) and the likes of I AM Love, Dogtooth, Carlos, White Material etc.
If the Academy sticks to only English language films, they are gonna come up with a poor slate of nominees.
Glad to read I’m not the only one struggling.
I’ve got 7 good films listed this year, and I’ve watched a lot. So that’s 3 late-breakers required urgently to make a 10. The past few years have been abundant, and a reduction to 10 has been a serious challenge. This year’s looking wafer thin.
I think Toy Story 3 actually stands super tall this year, and if it wins, it’ll be a win for all the criminally under-valued animations at Oscar in years recent. And that will make for a teary ceremony! I recall how I dismissed “Up” as an opener at Cannes last year only to have it be one of the year’s best, and a defining film to boot.
Hell, I’m a Pixar fan, and I’ve constantly underestimated them. Not any more!
No Natalie Portman, Helena Bonham Carter, or Miranda Richardson in your predictions, Guy? I can see Miranda Richardson not making it, but Portman and HBC seem to be locks, right?
The one passage of this article that makes me raise an eyebrow is the idea that Toy Story 3 would be a “tepid choice” for Best Picture. I’m pretty sure the first animated film to win such a prize would be a Big Fucking Deal to anyone. Even if you thought it was the weakest of the trilogy, how inspiring would it be to see such a breakthrough in that category, especially the concluding chapter of the film series that started it all (computer animation, at least)?
As for The Social Network, I could never understand the idea that the lack of a “likeable” protagonist is a flaw. I mean, hello, ever heard of Raging Bull?
All of that aside, I can see a certain dissatisfaction of this year in film and Oscars, especially coming off your personal #1 of last year getting so much recognition. But we’ve still got roughly a month-and-a-half to go…
I’m not majorly disappointed this year. I think ‘Toy Story 3’, ‘The Social Network’ and ‘Inception’ are among my favorites of the last decade, and they all came out this year. I’d place them ahead of my entire top 10 from last year.
I think there are more problems with The Town than “some narrative glitches”, but I seem to be in the minority on this issue.
I find it funny how everyone is so enamoured by Toy Story 3. It was lovely and all, but has been completely overrated.
I find increasingly Guy is becoming the person with the taste most like mine. He also doesn’t buy into hyperbole and tells it like it is. Bravo.
The ten nominees list is ridiculous – Toy Story 3 and Inception are great entertainments but hardly Best Picture material. Hopefully they’ll scrap it and go back to five in a year or two.
My prediction: Best Film will go to The King’s Speech, Best Director to Fincher.
Once again, no Natalie Portman, once again these “predictions” are a joke.
I can truly feel with you, Guy, in terms of incoherence between your Top 10 and the assumed Academy´s Top 10.
Although my preference rarely ever matches with the Best Picture-line-up, especially last year it felt almost depressing for me. My favourites like “A Prophet”, “Hunger”, “Bright Star” or “Broken Embraces” all were ignored shamelessly (of course, I knew beforehand they would by no means be up the Academy´s alley). The only of 2009 Best Pic-contenders I regarded as a great cinematographic achievement was “Inglourious Basterds”.
This year, though, I´m much more optimistic. “The Social Network” will be a huge contender, and I also hope that “Fish Tank” might receive some nominations (too sad that the awesome “Carlos” is ineligible). I haven´t seen many of the contenders, but have great expectations for “Another Year”, “Black Swan” and “The King´s Speech”.
Does anyone else feel ….. like the race is over, and it hasn’t even begun? I’m talking as far as BP contenders go.
Last year at this time, we did not know if Nine, Invictus, The Lovely Bones, and even Avatar were going to be collossal hits or collossal misses.
This year, all we have is True Grit as the big mystery; a remake with Jeff Bridges (who just won) that I doubt will be anywhere near bad.
There’s just very little mystery this year, to me.
Now that The Fighter has been seen, and viewed as a mainstreamer with good performances, that just leaves True Grit to WOW.
I think the “wow” was over in October with The Social Network being released and The King’s Speech being seen.
There are good-to-great movies out there, for sure. Many won’t hit stateside for another month or two. But I think we know what we’re gonna get.
I maintain that the big ‘what if’ film could be The Way Back to hopefully shake things up a bit.
The Social Network, The King’s Speech, Inception, Toy Story 3, blah blah blah. All well-received, but they’ve been THE discussion for 2 months now, and will be the discussion 3 months from now.
Anyone agree? And sorry for the length. Yikes.
I think this year has been a great year for under the radar films but I also feel that this year there is a more exciting variety of potential Best Picture nominees, if not the greatest collection of memorable films. Black Swan is the last film that I am down on me knees ecstatic about seeing, but even if that was the only other film I saw this year (it won’t be, I still have a list of 35 films to try to catch up on) then I would be pretty content with what has been released. I do hope that True Grit comes out of nowhere and wins EVERYTHING, if only b/c it will be nice to have a late blooming surprise film that won’t really surprise anyone if it turns out to be as amazing as it looks in the trailers. Who knows, maybe The Tourist will turn out to be an epic achievement that will win everything. (I kid.)
I also find myself lacking in my own top ten. Up at the top, there is a logjam between Machete, I Am Love, and A Prophet, with films like Fish Tank, Greenberg, and The Social Network after that. They are all fine films, but top ten is a bit too much.
Of course, I have not seen the newest work by Coppola, Aronofsky, or Leigh, and they always manage to make films that crack my ten, so I suppose things might tighten up.
@ Dominik – I agree with your favorites of 2009 (although I tend to lump Hunger into 2008 at least in my mind) and it really goes to show that the Academy would really do well to think outside the box a little bit more.
I think there are lots of great films that have come out this year that unfortunately by default everyone lumps into their “favorites” list but no one realistically allows the films to be considered a possible best picture film. I can’t help but feel it is a bit sad and frustrating that there will always be this disconnect between the films that we love the most and the ones recognized by the Academy. I wish there were greater things in store for some films other than just being included on critics’ or cinephiles’ personal year end “favorites” list.
It would be a shame and a surprise, if True Grit was a complete and utter fail. Can’t wait to see it though. Not too concerned about the Coen Brothers mucking it up.
If I’m to be honest, I usually match up pretty well with the Oscars. That probably doesn’t say much for my taste, but there it is, haha.
There are always a few glaring “what the Hell’s?” (either from me or them), of course. But my top 10 lists (per category) are never far off from what the flow of the Oscar season has been.
I’m waiting until the critics’ awards start coming out: I have a feeling that the race is going to shift in a different direction.
No Natalie Portman for Best Actress!! No Biutiful in Foreign Film (at least Bardem is on the list)!! What can I say?
I just saw the original True Grit on DVD. It was an enjoyable entertainment. The Coen Brothers version will probably be better but I don’t see how they will make this material into an Awards worthy film. We shall see.
Toy Story 3, Another Year, and Kids Are All Right are the only ones on my current top ten that look to have solid chances to get nominated (and Kids will probably leave my top ten before the year ends) but that is fairly normal, last year only Avatar and Hurt Locker were in my top ten with Up just missing.
And looking at my predicted ten (King’s Speech, Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Fighter, Kids Are All Right, The Town, The Way Back, Another Year, 127 Hours) I liked five of the six films on that list that I’ve seen; sure I would be against 127 Hours getting in but I imagine with 10 slots there will always be a film or two I don’t care for.
A very well-written article, Guy.
I, too, found TS3 to be the weakest of the lot. I enjoyed it, don’t get me wrong. But a recent second viewing already whittled away much of the joy and excitement I felt during that initial midnight screening months ago.
I also feel that, as of this moment, it’s between The Social Network and The King’s Speech. And if it were not for the historical inaccuracies (both alleged and actual) in TSN, it would be the surefire front-runner.
Finally, I also worry that too much pressure is being unintentionally placed on True Grit to be a cinematic miracle. I love the Coens, and I’m sure the film will be good, at the very least. But I fear that expectations, coupled with the lack of late-season behemoths, could spell disappointment, if not downright disaster, for their movie.
As of right now, the film I want to see most is still Black Swan. Following that, I’d add True Grit, 127 Hours, Blue Valentine, and Rabbit Hole.
@JJ1 – I think having your favorite films match closely with the Academy’s says a lot about your taste – which is that you have good taste. I personally tend to like more obscure and genre films which never get recognized (and never would less they become no longer “obscure”) but that is just me. Every now and then I still wish one of my crazy out there films got in but it is a pipe dream that I (mostly) share alone (I don’t think there is a huge following for films like Enter The Void or Kinatay, but those are some of my favorite films I have seen this year.)
Good piece and I like Guy’s writing but I fail to see the point of the emphasis in this sentence:
“cue talk of Paramount launching a full-on campaign for Martin Scorsese’s “Shutter Island,” a well-crafted auteur doodle released to mixed reviews back in the wilds of last winter.”
What does Shutter Island being released LAST winter have anything to do with anything? It was still 2010 wasn’t it? To your point it says something that now there is a campaign given the mixed reaction. But this kind of comment reinforces what you discuss in the article about traditional behavior of studios releasing prestige pictures late in the year.
Good piece otherwise though.
@bostonbean: I think his statement was perfectly clear and sensible. He was saying that, as we draw closer to awards time, studios seem to be sensing that there aren’t enough genuine contenders to fill out the ten slots, so they’re beginning to sift through their back catalog. Resurrecting a movie from nearly a year ago that received mixed notices is the perfect example of the studios’ opportunism.
I maintain that the big ‘what if’ film could be The Way Back to hopefully shake things up a bit.
I think so too, JJ1. Out of all the possible contenders still left to come out, The Way Back just seems like it’s the only movie left that could possibly make it a three picture race. I’m just concerned because I don’t know if it will be pushed enough to get on voters’ radars like that.
Bostonbean: What Keil said. I’m not criticising them for digging that far back — would that assorted strong releases from early in the year were getting similarly revived — but merely pointing out how the passing of time can make studio brass see a contender in something they previously regarded as a mere commodity. (Remember, after all, that “Shutter Island” was bumped from the Autumn 2009 release schedule, essentially because Paramount didn’t think an awards run was a viable option.)
I happen to think that Toy Story 3 was a great film… exactly once.
Even the first time I saw it I thought there were glaring flaws that everyone else seemed to be ignoring, but I, just like everyone else, was totally swept away by the nostalgia, the humor, the excitement, the emotion, etc. But all of that goes away the second you pop it into the BluRay player. It’s a weak movie.
However, I can think of at least two other movies that I was completely swept away by the first time I viewed them only (and can’t even bring myself two watch a third time after the disappointment of a second viewing): Crash and Slumdog Millionaire–neither of which I dreamed would even be in the running for Best Picture when I first saw them.
I mention all this because this is a year in which everyone agrees that there are a number of really good, emotionally satisfying, crowd-pleasing, artistically successful movies that have been made… none of which strikes anyone as an overwhelming “best picture” of the year. (Although my own personal opinion is that The Social Network reaches nearest the mark.)
That “Eh, they’re all good and stuff but this is kind of a dull lineup” feeling is going to make TS3 look exponentially greater by the time voting rolls around, I think. Which is terrible, in some ways, because I tend to think it’s flaws are bad enough to keep it out of “The Ten” altogether, but it’s not so bad in other ways, when you think about some of the stinkers of previous years that have gotten nominations and even wins.
I think TS3 is every bit as deserving of a Best Picture win as The Return of the King, for example (and for the same reasons), and I think it’s definitely more deserving than Crash or Slumdog Millionaire. Compared to the other movies this year, Toy Story looks pretty weak, but I think voters are just as likely to think how a movie will hold up in terms of the winner narrative from year to year.
I can picture Academy members feeling more proud to have elevated a Pixar feature “into the club” than, say, a biopic about royal speech impediments. Oddly, it helps to maintain the Oscar’s image as something exclusive, something groundbreaking, something hard-to-define.
It almost makes more sense for Toy Story 3 to line up alongside films like A Man for All Seasons and Annie Hall and American Beauty than anything else in the slate this year because Toy Story just manages to be something the other movies aren’t.
That’s why I’ve maintained that TS3 is going to win since its release (with a moment of doubt here and there). In a year like this, when even the awards junkies and cinephiles and film bloggers and so on can’t seem to find a film to go to bat for a month or so out from January, and they aren’t waiting in breathless anticipation for anything but a Western remake, I think the Academy will go for something daring. Toy Story is the only movie that seems like a daring win.
Wow, I really went on and on there, didn’t I? I hope no one falls asleep trying to read it.
Repeat after me kiddies, the race is over. The King Speech sweeps. Don’t listen to people trying to create artificial drama because there isn’t any. OVER and out!
If you don’t mind going on a little more SJG, what flaws were in Toy Story 3 that bothered you during a second viewing?
TS3 will win Best Animated Feature, which makes it even less likely that it will win Best Picture too. Again, I still like the movie quite a bit, but it feels more like a string of (usually) comedic events than a cohesive story.
I haven’t seen The King’s Speech yet, but from everything I’ve read, it certainly seems like the film to beat. The Social Network is probably my favorite film of the year thus far (bearing in mind that there’s a lot I’ve yet to see), but even I’m willing to admit that there are some facets to it that could be understandably problematic for some voters.
I will say that at this moment there’s no film that I feel deeply passionate about, the way I have in certain past years (Boogie Nights, The Truman Show, Almost Famous, Ghost World, Sideways, Zodiac, etc.). However, I have yet to see several films that I could imagine myself loving (Black Swan and True Grit, in particular).
I would certainly bet on King’s Speech if I had to put money on one film right now, but in no way is the race over; I remember this time last year people were saying it was Up in the Air vs. Precious, then it became Up in the Air vs. Avatar, before finally becoming a race between Avatar and Hurt Locker.
Besides even films that some viewed as shoe-ins to win at one point (like Saving Private Ryan and Brokeback Mountain) faltered down the stretch.
Drew,
Interestingly, a lot of the flaws bothered me less during the second viewing, it’s just that all of the magic of watching the movie was gone.
I think the script itself is greatly overrated. It relies too heavily on knowing that the audience is already familiar with characters and issues that have little to do with the movie itself, and fails to properly develop new perspectives on that when it needed to. There are just throwaway references to Bo Peep, Emily, and other things where a toy says something knowingly and expressively that are completely meaningless in the context of this movie. I realize the filmmakers couldn’t just let some things go unexplained or unexpressed, but the way it was done was inartful.
The toys are also just versions of themselves on auto-pilot for the most part. They don’t really show much growth from previous installments. That’s a flaw with regards to the franchise more than the movie itself, so I’ll let it go.
I think the plot and pacing leaves a lot to be desired as well. The middle segment when the toys are actually at the daycare is rushed. Woody’s one-afternoon excursion with Bonnie and her friends is cute and fun, but it’s ultimately just a distraction to justify the end of the movie, and has very little of the heart I’ve come to expect from Pixar movies. The actual escape from the daycare is executed simply and flawlessly and creates no sense of tension or excitement leading into the dump sequence.
There are also just some stylistic decisions that I think are crass and artistically questionable that were made just to get laughs or generate a response from the audience, creating an inconsistent tone throughout the movie.
I don’t know, I feel like I’m just rambling. It’s hard for me to pinpoint some of the flaws because I don’t necessarily dwell on them. They stick out to me when I’m watching the movie but there’s nothing that I have a lingering dislike of. I just think those flaws make it an unworthy contender in the best picture race.
It would be a shame to not see Clint Eastwoods beautiful drama HEREAFTER in the top ten Best Picture race! I loved it and it shall get the 10th spot nomination!
Shutter Island will be more popular as the years go by, similar to Hitchcock”s Vertigo…….Best Picture Awards do not translate well
for vintage all time great films, i.e. Citizen Kane and Dr. Strangelove.
Respectfully yours,
OC
I loved Hereafter but I am not sure that it is getting in. I hope that The Way Back gets a chance.
I think Winter’s Bone is a great film, and deserves to be in the conversation. Also, Exit Through the Gift Shop is kind of a masterpiece.
I’d love to see a Best Director nod for Un Prophete
ala City of God in 2003
Parrill: Not possible, I’m afraid. According to revised Academy rules, Best Foreign Language Film nominees are not eligible for further nominations in the year of their US release. (They remain eligible, however, if they fail to get nominated in the foreign-language race — as was the case with City of God. Silly system.)
What?!? When was this a rule?
I see.
Shame…I always liked looking back and seeing those random nominations years after a film was released like Battle of Algiers…Alas, no more.
And while we’re on the subject…Why was City of God passed over initially?
I’m gonna chalk it up to its funky release date seeing as they praised it the following year.
Parrill: It has nothing to do with the release date and everything to do with the mostly conservative taste of the Academy’s foreign film committee.
The four voting branches that nominated it the next year have a very different makeup of voters. Remember that — there’s no single “they” at the nomination stage.
Robert: I don’t know exactly when the rule was changed, but the last film to be nominated in two separate years was “Amarcord” in 1974/5. So I’m guessing it’s been in place for a while. No, I don’t get it, either.
I wish the Academy would go back to 5 films for eligibility in the best picture category. I don’t know if movies are getting worse but it seems to me that having 10 films being an option for only exceptional years – which we haven’t had this year or last year.