TECH SUPPORT: Final predictions, part two

Continuing from where we left off yesterday, today we look at the fields of makeup, music, sound and visual effects.

BEST MAKEUP

The shortlist of seven makes predicting this category slightly easier. “District 9”’s realistic wounds, not to mention the practical elements of the central character’s transformation, likely make it the frontrunner. “Star Trek,” meanwhile, boasted an array of alien species and turned young actors into iconic characters.

So what will get the last spot? “The Young Victoria” has done better than I would have expected it to do this season and the costumes are assured a nomination. But its shortlisting here seems really for hairstyling, which historically doesn’t lead to nominations.  Then again, a BAFTA nomination shouldn’t be taken lightly.

I find it difficult to believe that “Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian” will be nominated when its predecessor failed to even be shortlisted. Admittedly, it worked for “Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me,” but the characters there were much more iconic. Still, one never knows.

The mere fact that “Il Divo” was shortlisted suggests we shouldn’t rule it out. Aging certainly is beloved by this branch. But I think the other two films have better chances.

The makeup on “The Road” was incredibly realistic. It has a very strong chance in my opinion.  But I find it more likely that Sarah Monzani will return to the race for the first time in 27 years for “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus.” This also strikes me as the best place to cite a visually original film.

Final predictions:
“District 9”
“The Imaginarum of Doctor Parnassus”
“Star Trek”

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

This is always a tremendously difficult category to predict. But there are, however, two names that I am confident we’ll see pop up on Tuesday. The first is Michael Giacchino for his Golden Globe-winning score for “Up.” The second is James Horner’s noticeable music for “Avatar.” After that, however, things become somewhat murkier.

While Marvin Hamlisch has been gone from the game for a while, and “The Informant!” did not become the hit that Warner Bros. undoubtedly hoped, Hamlisch’s name, the catchy score plus HFPA and BFCA nominations make me suspect he is back in the race.

This category tends to snub new composers regularly. But Abel Korzeniowski’s compositions for “A Single Man” were incredibly important to setting the film’s mood. After the Golden Globe nomination, I have the suspicion we could see it once more.

The fifth Golden Globe nominee (also a BFCA nominee) – Carter Burwell and Karen O for “Where the Wild Things Are” – was disqualified. So was BFCA nominee Randy Newman for “The Princess and the Frog,” making this a more interesting race beyond that.

I think I’d look to Alexandre Desplat to round out the category. He has “Coco Before Chanel” out there, bringing him back to his French roots, but I think he’s more likely to score for “Fantastic Mr. Fox.” The music grabbed attention and Desplat is clearly respected in the industry. (If he, admittedly, does not have as many nominations as he should.)

I quite enjoyed Hans Zimmer’s score for “Sherlock Holmes.” As did the BFCA. But despite his success in the past decade, he has not been cited by the Academy since “Gladiator” nine years ago.

“Public Enemies” has been forgotten in many circles. But Elliot Goldenthal shows up in the race every so often, usually for very specialized scores. His recreation of the 1930s on Michael Mann’s film could be formidable.

Also, while “Brothers” did not catch fire, Thomas Newman doesn’t need a big film to see success. (See also: “The Good German.”) Just a hunch.  Then again, it’s an unconventional score.

If there is a complete surprise (as there often is), I wouldn’t be shocked to see Sergei Yevtushenko show up for his Russian-influenced score on “The Last Station,” or maybe even Michael Giacchino as a double nominee for his equally good work on “Star Trek.”

Final predictions:
“Avatar”
“The Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Informant!”
“A Single Man”
“Up”

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

Year after year, I find this to be the Academy’s most perplexing category. I do believe a well-placed original song can immensely improve the quality of a film. But this branch’s choices, and its ever-changing bizarre rules, mean that many of the best songs are snubbed and/or ineligible.

That said, I’ll try to analyze the contenders. If any two tunes are “safe,” I would say “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart” and “I See You” from “Avatar” are the two. But given recent history in this category, I’d call nothing a lock. Moreover, the latter song has been criticized.

“Cinema Italiano” from “Nine” managed BFCA and Golden Globe nominations. And it is a catchy tune, so I’d be willing to say it’ll survive the film’s descent. But “Take It All,” which is, in my opinion, a better song, could complicate matters. Who knows? Maybe they can both get in.

Also with multiple songs in the mix is “The Princess and the Frog.” So far the most often recognized songs from Randy Newman’s soundtrack are “Almost There” and “Down in New Orleands.” Newman doesn’t generally have to stretch himself to get nominated, so I expect at least one citation this year, especially as he isn’t eligible in the original score field.

Also disqualified from the score category was Karen O. While her “All is Love” from “Where the Wild Things Are” strikes me as a tad simplistic for a typical nominee in this category, it could be the best place to cite the film.

Among the likely Best Picture nominees we have “You’ve Got Me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger” and “Smoke Without Fire” from “An Education.” The former is the likelier and it is, for want of a better word, “nice.” But I’m not sure it appears to be a typical nominee. Then again, what is a typical nominee?

Golden Globe nominee “Winter” from “Brothers” probably ought not to be dismissed. But U2 is a frequent Golden Globe nominee and only one of their titles, “The Hands That Built America,” managed to also score at the Oscars.

Lastly, it should be noted that Paul McCartney is always a welcome addition to any red carpet. His “I Want to Go Home” from “Everybody’s Fine” was hardly revolutionary in music and I suspect his Golden Globe nomination was typical of HFPA loving big stars. But it would be foolish to rule him out.

Final predictions:
“I See You” from “Avatar”
“The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
“Cinema Italiano” from “Nine”
“Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog”
“All is Love” from “Where the Wild Things Are”

BEST SOUND EDITING

I think the same seven films are leading the way here and in the sound mixing field.  And I would say “Avatar” is assured a nomination.  “Star Trek” and “District 9” are even more editors’ films than mixer’s films, so they’re following not far behind as I see it.

I think “Up” is reasonably safe here. Animated films, especially those from Pixar, score with the sound editors plenty and I doubt this entry will be unable to follow suit.

Lastly, I really think that, if it finds a home anywhere, “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” has a good chance here. The clinks and clanks of Bay’s latest are noticeable to anyone, and exactly what this category tends to nominate.

This leaves “The Hurt Locker” on the outside looking in. While I concede it’s somewhat odd to think that the arguable Best Picture frontrunner is the weakest link of the leading six films, I really think that the sound effects are not as noticeable as in the other contenders. So I think it is totally possible for Bigelow’s film to miss out here.

As for “Inglourious Basterds,” I have the exact same opinion as I do in the sound mixing field below.  It hasn’t done well for itself in the precursors that would mirror this field.  I also should add that I think this category is slightly more open to nominating some very random films, so titles such as “2012” and “Fantastic Mr. Fox” also should not be dismissed out of hand.

Final predictions:
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“Star Trek”
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen”
“Up”

BEST SOUND MIXING

Much like in Best Film Editing, I really think this race is down to six or seven films – the five guild nominees, a different BAFTA nominee, and one Best Picture contender.

Leading the way is James Cameron’s “Avatar.” Not only is the crew filled with past nominees, it is going to sweep the tech fields.  After that, “The Hurt Locker” also is highly likely to get nominations across the board.

I’d also be surprised (if slightly less so) if either “Star Trek” or “District 9” missed. Both are very respected, loud blockbusters. While the former’s crew may have had more success with AMPAS before, the latter film is more critically respected. I think they’re both good to go.

Of the five guild nominees, I’d say the weakest link is “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.” That said, Greg Russell and Gary Summers are huge names, and the sound is exactly the sort this branch embraces. I’m ultimately going to say that this category will match up five-for-five with the guild.

However, it would be foolish to rule out BAFTA nominee “Up.” This is especially the case considering Pixar films have earned three nominees in this category in the past five years. However, I think that “WALL-E,” “The Incredibles” and, to a lesser extent, “Ratatouille” could be described as more dependant on the mixing than “Up.” But with a likely Best Picture citation coming, it is certainly possible.

The only film that I’d still call in contention would be “Inglourious Basterds,” because war era Best Picture nominees are always threats here. But it has failed to be nominated by either the CAS or BAFTA, and it does not have the typical soundscape of a war film.

Final predictions:
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Star Trek”
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

This is probably the easiest category to predict, shortlist or no shortlist. “Avatar”’s visual effects will go down in history while “District 9” and “Star Trek” were hugely financially and critically successful summer hits. Not to mention they all have BAFTA nominations.

The only possible spoiler is “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” due to the mammoth nature of its effects, and its box office. But the, uh, respect for the film, compared to the other three, makes me skeptical.

As for the crews of “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince,” “2012” and “Terminator Salvation” which fill out the rest of the shortlist, I wish them all the best for next year.

Final predictions:
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“Star Trek”

There we have it! Tune in Tuesday morning to see how thing shake out, and in the meantime, cut loose with your own tech category predictions in the comments section below if you like!