My wholly serious (if not stone-set) prediction earlier this week that “Inglourious Basterds” would take the Best Picture Oscar, along with three other statuettes, prompted more discussion than I thought it would. (I sure am glad this many people weren’t paying attention when I predicted a “WALL-E” win last year.)
The pundit who got the most pleasure out of my guess was, of course, Tom O’Neil — who called it for “Basterds” back in November. Like most, I thought he was off his rocker at the time. Now, I humbly concede he might have been onto something.
I happily submit that my idea may be wildly off-base, but it’s not underthought. To clarify that, here are 10 reasons I’m going with “Basterds” — one for each nomination I expect the film to get.
Speaking of which:
The nomination leader: Precisely what I expect the film to be. Right now, I’m predicting the film will racks up nods for Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design, Film Editing and Sound Mixing, with a surprise, category-corrected Supporting Actress bid for Mélanie Laurent bringing it to an even 10. Nowadays, landing the most nominations isn’t the check-mate move that it was in the 1990s, but a leading tally — particularly one that catches some industry folk off-guard — would increase the amount of chatter around the film.
The Harvey factor: His golden touch of the 1990s may have waned slightly, but as “The Reader” sneakily reminded us last year, having Harvey Weinstein on your side never did an awards contender any harm. The master Oscar strategist knows which side his bread is buttered: with his former number-one priority “Nine” crashing, count on him putting his full (and considerable) campaigning weight behind Tarantino & Co.
The best of both worlds: After last year’s “Dark Knight” fracas, there appears to be some industry pressure on the Academy to go more populist — part of the reason many are picking “Avatar” for the win. If, however, some find James Cameron’s film too crude or too genre-oriented, “Inglourious Basterds” offers a compromise of sorts: a certifiable hit ($120 million) that nonetheless boasts eccentric auteurist flavor and Cannes-endorsed arthouse cred. It’s the snob’s blockbuster in the race.
Diane Kruger: Or, to be more specific, that out-of-nowhere Best Supporting Actress nod for Kruger at the SAGs. It may seem a minor point, but it was when I heard her name announced that I realized the extent of the film’s pull. Clearly, the actors (the largest voting branch in the Academy) are all over the film; Like “Crash” before it, I’m counting on it riding the SAG ensemble award to a Best Picture win, even if it misses with other Guilds. (Kruger probably won’t be Oscar-nominated, but look at her SAG nod as a placeholder for Laurent, who wasn’t eligible in the supporting race.)
International flavor: It’s worth bearing in mind that the Academy isn’t quite as American in its makeup as the Guilds, with a not-insignificant British and European contingent that often makes its presence felt. “Inglourious Basterds” may be an American work, but its European setting, multi-national cast and abundant non-English dialogue give it more of a co-production feel than its compatriots; with only “An Education” likely to represent non-U.S. cinema in the top category, that international identity could work in its favor.
All bases covered: Of the top-tier contenders, it could end up with the widest spread of support across the voting branches, with bids for directing, writing, acting and in a number of craft and design fields. “Avatar” faces obstacles in acting and writing, as does “Up in the Air” in techs; only “The Hurt Locker” is also set to score in all four areas. This isn’t a deal-breaker, but it could come in useful when it comes to…
The preferential ballot: As you surely know, this will be the first year the Academy uses preferential voting in the Best Picture race, determining the winner based on rankings rather than single votes. This ostensibly favors the most broadly liked (or least resented) film in contention. It could be that an “Up in the Air” benefits more from the system than a polarizing oddity like “Basterds,” but visible support across the branches can only help.
Tarantino the teddy bear: 15 years ago, when Quentin Tarantino was last in the Oscar race, he was an upstart enfant terrible still outside the club. Today, Tarantino is the cuddly face of American auteurism, to the degree that he even commands a presenting slot at the Oscars. His oddball nature and enthusiastic cineaste passions make him a more endearing figure than, say, James Cameron, and a more identifiable one than, say, Jason Reitman. That might not win him Best Director, but it increases the amount of goodwill toward his film.
When all is said and done, it’s still a Holocaust movie: A strange and wilfully silly one, sure, but a Holocaust movie all the same. You know that never hurts.
I don’t like it much: Not a scientific factor, I admit, but sometimes you just get a feeling the race isn’t going your way. And after three consecutive years of me agreeing with the Academy’s Best Picture choices (within the confines of their nominations, at least), something has to give, surely. Admittedly, this voodoo-in-reverse could just as easily benefit “Avatar,” “Precious” or “Up in the Air,” but on reflection, I think “Basterds” is a better film than all those. Barring a win for “The Hurt Locker,” I need something to hold onto.
Comments
66 responses to “Why I’m backing the Basterds”
No.
But I will say I feel like Diane Kruger could be nominated, whereas I didn’t immediately following the SAG nominations.
I don’t think it will happen. The Lord of the Rings III didn’t get any acting noms and still won 11 Oscars. Those out-of-the-blue SAG nominations mean nothing either. Remeber Into The Wild?
Avatar will win IMO because it aspires to “redefine” the struggling film industry. None of the other potential nominees is doing that AND Avatar can be interpreted in many different ways. It’s a movie about racism, war, love, finding yourself, capitalism, imperialism, social order, etc. None of the potential nominees have that vast number of themes.
And before someone says that I’m a fanboy, I must confess that I didn’t like Avatar that much and I don’t think it deserves to win over The Hurt Locker.
Oh and you know how self-congratulatory the Academy can be so… The race is over. It’s Avatar’s year.
The Academy has not awarded the best film of the year since 1977. It will not happen.
I can’t dispute your reasoning. I just pray, pray, pray that it is wrong :)
i really really hope you’re right on this.
it still ranks as the highest american film of the year on my personal list.
No way, sorry.
I’m saying UP IN THE AIR in an upset over AVATAR.
Guy, you didn’t like Avatar, Inglourious Basterds, Up In the Air, or Precious? That’s like my top four of the year right… just goes to show you, i guess. I would love to see Inglourious Basterds or Up In the Air win, but Avatar has everything going for it right now, and I can’t complain.
loving your reasons for the Basterds win, and honestly it could happen!
Since people keep comparing Avatar to the original Star Wars, I’m predicting Up in the Air for the win (like Annie Hall).
if it happens it would be just as exciting as the departed winning, but its still a dark horse, the way i prefer me basterds
I agree. In the last couple weeks, I’ve come around to the idea of BASTERDS winning.
LOTR did have Ian McKellan nominated for FOTR, and he picked up a couple precursor (BAFTA) noms for ROTK. Avatar hasn’t been mentioned anywhere acting wise, where as ROTK won a shit ton of ensemble awards, including NBR (who hated the movies) and SAG.
I think who ever wins the Globe this year will get the almighty boost. It really is a 4 horse race, and while I can’t see Basterds winning there, you’re right, I can see it winning ensemble.
i don’t understand all the “avatar is the frontrunner” buzz and i feel like it’s an internet driven thing. They’ve never awarded anything like it ….with the possible exception of RETURN OF THE KING and that film had three years of momentum going for it.
E.T. didnt win when it became one of the biggest movies of all time. STAR WARS didn’t win.
I love AVATAR but i just don’t really understand the “game changer” argument. What is it changing? More action pictures? More sci-fi f/x pictures? More 3-D? All of those things have been around forever. Cameron does action and f/x and now 3D better than just about anyone but i guess i don’t really get the meme that Hollywood is now going to be a totally different place.
I don’t think Up in the Air should ever be compared with Annie Hall. That said, I would love to see Basterds win it all.
I can’t see Inglourious Basterds winning Best Picture. I feel pretty confident in it’s chances of being nominated, but that’s it. Christoph Waltz will probably win Best Supporting Actor (and deservedly so) and there may be a few other tech awards it will win.
I agree, I might be out of the loop but I don’t think “Avatar” is the front-runner, even with the box-office. I think it’s “The Hurt Locker”s to lose.
P.S. I think Hurt Locker will win the SAG and Globe- it’s won everything already.
Anyway just my two cents (don’t think i’m crazy)
The Hurt Locker will win. A 94 on Metacritic is standing its ground and it could easily rob Precious and Inglourious Basterds.
BTW, my parents didn’t think as highly of IB.
Inglorious Bastareds, Avatar or Hurt Locker would be worthy winnners.
Nathaniel: Talk to voters. It’s not an internet-driven thing.
That said, it’s very “fruit of the month.” Things can change. We’re three months away from the Oscars, after all. But in this moment, Avatar is the frontrunner.
The problem with ‘Up in the Air’ is that no one is talking about Reitman. No one ever talked about Reitman, it’s the Cameron and Bigelow show with Tarantino the respected third party. Plus the film isn’t the tour de force in acting of the year plus the SAG ensemble snub. I can see the film only walking away with adapted screenplay, and that’s it.
It certainly has a lot going for it that would make one think it could win, like being a critical and box office success, the likelihood of it picking up a lot of nominations (which helps to reach the Minimum Four Wins “rule”*), having a slam dunk Best Supporting Actor winner (not unlike No Country for Old Men) and the overall strong support it has gotten so far.
I certainly don’t have the guts to predict it as the winner, but there’s no denying that it fulfills many criteria that some of the other contenders don’t that have historically helped many films to a Best Picture win.
* The Minimum Four Wins “rule” shows that it’s very rare for a film to win Best Picture without winning at least three other Oscars. Crash is the only Best Picture winner to have won less than four Oscars in total.
That’s supposed to say Crash is the only Best Picture winner to have won less than four Oscars in total in the past 30 years.
Avatar is the winner, yet Guy is crazy for picking Basterds? Not that I think Basterds is the frontrunner (My money is on Up In The Air) But I still think Basterds one of the best shots at it, for most of the reasons that Guy gave actually. Also, acclaim is much higher for Basterds than for Avatar, a film that for some reason the press acts like has universal acclaim (conspiracy?)
I say Kruger is in for supporting and Fassbender could be a big surprise. Now if Waltz would be moved into lead where he belongs…Harrelson would be the frontrunner there.
Doesn’t anyone else have a problem with the dialog in “Avatar?”
What a year for 10 Best Picture nominees, huh?
This year’s race is basically broken down into 4 tough contenders, one dark horse (Precious), and 5 extra movies just minding their own business. If it was still a 5 way race, predicting the nominees wouldn’t be a chore. But predicting the WINNER? We might have had ourselves the most exciting Oscar race ever!
IM:
Oh come on! Acclaim for Basterds was mixed towards positive, in contrast with Avatar’s universal praise not only by the critics but by audiences, Oscar voters, buzzers, etc. Stop cherry-picking facts!
I don’t think IB is fruit of the month, at all. This came out over 4 months ago and it’s still going strong while Precious and other big names have stumbled.
I think there are many lovers of this film, vehement lovers. And it will have strong support from nearly every guild down the line.
I would love nothing more than to see Inglourious Basterds win. I remember sitting in the aisle during a sold out showing of Pulp Fiction my freshman year of film school. He’s one of the best filmmakers working today.
That said, I don’t think it’s going to win. You made solid points Guy but for instance, I don’t see it leading all nominees.
Which takes us to Avatar, which is set to cross 1 billion dollars tomorrow after 2 and half weeks in release.
The Oscar can be funny at times and weird things happen. But when you’re looking at a critically well-received film, very well-received in some regards, mixed with box office that begun to overshadow even The Dark Knight, I don’t know. I guess for the sake of discussion it’s good to get these articles out and get people talking.
But I have a hard time seeing Avatar losing at this point. And if it does, it probably won’t be to Inglourious Basterds. A week ago I was concerned about the box office of Up in the Air but its coming along quite nicely. It will pass Precious this weekend and head towards 50m next weekend. And people really like it. And we all know the deal with The Hurt Locker…
Likelihood of winning Best Picture
1. Avatar
2. Up in the Air
3. The Hurt Locker
4. Inglourious Basterds
JJ: Kris’s “fruit of the month” comment was about “Avatar,” not “Basterds.”
Kruger deserved her place, she was very captivating in the film and acted well in German.
I’ve just finished watching IB on DVD (having seen it twice in the cinema) and I think it’s superb. I also think that you could comfortably nominate half its cast for supporting Oscars. Waltz is certainly in (Patryk, I don’t think he’s a lad, though I do think it’s a close call), and I don’t think it’s at all improbable that Kruger will be nominated too. I think, in fact, that her chances are better than Laurent’s, simply because, with Kruger, there’s no category confusion. I also think Fassbender could sneak in, as could Daniel Bruhl. The reason I think this is that, not only are they all very good, they each have their big moment. They are all memorable.
As for Brad Pitt, while I don’t think he will get nominated, I think he was very good too. And even though he’s not in it hugely (probably no more than Waltz), I think Pitt is a lead: he feels like a lead…perhaps because the film’s take on the Nazis and on history seems to align with Aldo Raine’s. It is as if the film is Raine’s, really.
Sorry, that was meant to say ‘I don’t think he’s a lead’!
Patryk, I like your line of thinking regarding Michael Fassbender. The supporting categories always gives us a last minute nominee, and he’s so deserving of it. I also think that Diane, along with Melanie, could garner an Oscar nom too.
Guy, I love your bold statement and predictions for Basterds, and I hope it comes true. But, I don’t trust AMPAS, they have screwed up so many times in recent years.
I remain cautiously hopeful. ;)
Guy, thanks for the correction. Either way, I think it’s between Avatar and Inglourious Basterds, with Up in the Air and THL slightly behind them.
Andrew #28:
I dont know what the hell you are talking about but taking into consideration every critic averaging service, Basterds has about 25% less negative reviews than Avatar.
Actually, Avatar has more negative reviews then Basterds, Up In The Air, Precious, and Hurt Locker. This is what I’m saying people, conspiracy. Everyone who enjoyed Avatar claims it has universal praise, when this is honestly not the case.
You say I’m the one cherry picking facts but im curious to know Andrew, where you get yours?
Both AVATAR and INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS have critical acclaim, $$, and guild power.
UP IN THE AIR and THE HURT LOCKER just have the critical support, in my eyes; and less guild support down the line.
Just my opinion.
It will be interesting: that’s how I think things will turn up:
Air gets Golden Globe
Basterds gets SAG
Locker gets DGA
Avatar gets PGA
WHO WINS BP?????? I really don’t remeber a case in history where four different films have won this 4 awards!
It’s an interesting Oscar race in just that people think it’s an interesting Oscar race. But look at the Vegas odds, and you’ll see something quite different. If anybody thinks Avatar has a chance in hell, they should put their money where their mouth is, because right now when it is peaking in its possiblities its still a long shot. So is Inglorious Basterds.
Vegas knows something about the Academy. They always vote gravitas, they never vote “silly”. Those two movies are too silly. They’ll rack up some nominations for some of the technique involved, but won’t win most. Avatar will get best visual effects win and that’s it. Basterds will get a bunch of nominations but be pushed out of most categories by more serious nominees, but might win for momentum it has on best supporting actor. Neither director “topped themselves” with these films so the best pic goes to the actual best pic of the year and not to the best career director.
It’s a three film race for Best Picture: Avatar, Up in the Air, and The Hurt Locker.
But you can always cling to false hope I suppose.
I’m not so sure “Up in the Air” is faring well with the general public. The audience I saw it with was not impressed. I’ve also talked to several “regular folk” who actively disliked it. Obviously I cannot base the Oscar race on my theater’s reaction to the film, but I still see it as more of a “critical darling,” even if some Academy members supposedly love it. “Avatar” is easily the populist pick.
I’ll give Avatar this much, it’s made things interesting, though Kris would have the season be really boring, insisting Avatar is the prohibitive frontrunner. But I don’t see how you rank any of the FOUR ahead of each other at this point. Inglourious Basterds winning though would be hilarious, especially for the lulz of Tom O’Neill doing the TOLDJA SO DANCE.
I think Basterds, a $300m hit and the biggest of Tarantino’s career, is also a populist pic.
I still have a strange suspicion that Hurt Locker takes the PGA as well. At this point, I can very easily see Avatar winning NOTHING before before the Oscars. And when people wonder how it did it, Cameron can just say 1.3 billion beetches.
And yeah, if Basterds win, Tom O’Neill will never let anyone live it down, even if they agreed with him the whole time.
If this self indulgent fan boy mess wins best film i will loose all faith in the oscars.
AI:
Avatar has 83% score on Metacritic, while Inglorious B. has a 69% score. You are cherry picking not me.
AI:
Not to mention Avatar’s 94% score on Rotten Tomatoes vs. Inglorious Basterds’ 75%.
Funnily enough, you think I am an Avatar fanboy which is stupid because I said earlier and other several times that I didn’t like it that much. Typical ignorant comment.
Dont think IB will get up in a preferential system. Up in the Air or Avatar being more crowd pleasing will likely get up. And why cant the British contigent help Bright Star? Its gotten Best Actress and Best British Film nomination from the London Film Critics?
Now AI, where do you get your “facts”? Oh and please read my first post, #2.